Send In The Clowns

So the last meaningful out of the Red Sox 2008 season is a pop-up in the fog, two men on board, down by 11 runs. It was a very odd way into regular-season irrelevancy: an atmosphere so soupy, outfielders are missing routing flies; so water-drenched, the very elements are conspiring to keep the ridiculous offensive totals out of the books.

I was going to say I wasn't too bothered by tonight's loss backdooring the Rays into an AL East victory they're probably too tired to celebrate, because I see the Twins lurking at the top of the AL Central, ready to snatch final victory from the failing Pale Sox, and my memory immediately jumps to the Lovecraftian horror that is the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome. I hate it when the Sox have to travel to Minnesota for games (like Seattle, they always seem to lose there, and lose badly), and if losing the AL East means not having to spend some virtual time in the Twin Cities baseball stadium of choice, it's a trade I'm happy to make. Let the Rays have the title and face the Twinkies.

However, I see I'm wrong on two counts: not only have the Sox done well in Minnesota this year on both sides of the ball, but so have the Rays. Just as importantly, both teams have played well against the alternate victors in Chicago, so unless the Rays go ice cold over the next week or so, don't expect either potential winner of the AL Central crown to make their way past the first round of the playoffs. If we're lucky, we'll face the Rays in the ALCS (actually, if we're really lucky, we'll face the White Sox or the Twins in the ALCS). If not, well...well, we'll cross that bridge when we come to it. For now, enjoy two days of meaningless baseball and contemplate how you think those first two games in LA will go. Finally: Congratulations to the Tampa Bay Rays on a stupendous achievement, made even more significant by its accomplishment in baseball's toughest division. You guys are the new terror of the East.

It's Time For The Rays to Fall

Doing my best to ignore the bad news streaming out of Foxboro at the speed of fingers flying across keyboards and out across the ether, I came across this bit of Red Sox glorification: after months of seeing the Sox struggle on the road, Boston's finally pulled to within three games of .500 (36 and 39) away from Fenway...the same record as our erstwhile division rivals (and I mean Tampa Bay, not New York), who seem to be undergoing the sort of timely collapse (1.5 games ahead in the AL East entering today's start of series in Boston) that's all too familiar to Red Sox teams prior to 2004.

Upon further reflection, this seachange means we really are playing the role of the Yankees: the established, dominant team coming ever closer, creeping up on the underdogs like the monster from a horror movie. I wouldn't say we deserve an AL East win, but it sure is seductive to have this kind of power.

A number of people have asked me recently when/if I think the Rays are going to break. Up until now, I had stayed pretty conservative in my answers, because I couldn't find a reason for the Rays train to fall off the tracks: they can hit, they have three excellent starting pitchers, they can field, Wheeler, Balfour, and Howell continue to pitch out of their minds, etc., etc. It's hard to deny a team that seems to have closed all of their gaps.

Then I look at their Pythagorean win/loss record. Pythagorean, for those not in the know, is a statistical luck predictor that uses runs scored and runs allowed to determine what a team's win and loss record "should" be. Any deviations from the real win/loss record mean that the team's been lucky (real win/loss record better than Pythagorean win/loss record) or unlucky (real win/loss record worse than Pythagorean win/loss record). As of today, the Red Sox have a 86 and 56 Pythagorean, two games better than their actual 84 and 58 record. They've been slightly unlucky. The Rays? Well, on the Pythagorean scale, the Rays clock in at 79 and 62, six games worse than their actual 85 and 56 record. In other words, they're due for an adjustment. Guess who's going to deliver it to them in the next three days...

Since the fashion amongst the Sox these days is to take two games and lose the third, generally under aggregious circumstances (how a team this good sustains this many blowouts is beyond me), I suspect we'll see more of the same this week...but I'm pulling for sweep anyway. Let's put this one away, boys.