Here's to You, Daniel Bard

Don and I were talking Sox earlier today, and after commiserating on the poor state of the team in the past few days - a shifting cast of characters in the outfield, an infield now rife with injuries, and a bullpen when key guys like Ramirez, Okajima, and Papelbon have stopped performing - we finally found a bright spot: Daniel Bard. As it turns out, not only has Bard felt like a rock this year, but the numbers show he's pitched like one, too, with that stellar ERA+ of 217 front and center.

But digging a little deeper, you see an interesting contrast that stands out when you compare season totals: Bard has increased his control, but at the expense of strikeouts. WHIP, hits per nine, walks per nine, strikeout to walk ratio; they've all improved (and Bard is about ten innings shy of his 2009 totals, so this is a great time to compare), but strikeouts per nine (and total strikeouts, of course) are down. Presumably Bard has taken something off of his fastball to improve his control, but what I find so interesting about this change is how obvious it seems. One seemingly minor adjustment has ripples across a whole group of performance numbers...and even better, all of those ripples are positive. So here's to you, Daniel Bard: thanks for being such a rock.

Another Expected Win Squandered by the Pen

Can you control chaos in baseball pitching? My gut tells me you can, but what the hell do I know from my teak-veneer, living-room table for an office desk.

The baseball cliche "you are only as good as the team you put out there" is in direct conflict with the idea that you can manage bad pitching when it's happening in front of your face. Francona puts faith in his players and doesn't like to overreact. But with this bullpen, I think past performance does not always translate in to present success.

Last night was one of those games when a guy who had been running well in the pen for the last 6 appearances suddenly stunk up the joint. This time: Hideki Okajima and it was pretty obvious that he didn't have much there.

It was 6-4 in the 8th and Oki couldn't get outs giving up hits, a walk and 2 runs to the first 4 batters he faced to tie the game up at 6-6. A shorter leash might have been in order here, Tito. Instead, it became an extra-innings game. Instead, Ramon Ramirez ends up walking in the winning run for the Tigers in the 12th (he threw 4 straight balls nowhere near the zone). 


These are the kind of games that separate the teams at the top from the teams that flounder in the middle to the bottom of the standings. Emotionally, you feel like every step forward with this team to get over .500 baseball is let down by late-inning inadequacies and situational failures. You know how talented this team is supposed to be, but it simply doesn't matter. The Yankees and Rays are playing hot baseball and win close games regularly.

The Sox are not in the same class as these teams in mid-May 2010 and it comes down to the bullpen.

In a night when the starting pitching and offense are clicking, when a hot Lester, Drew and Ortiz stay hot, when a utility guy like Bill Hall hits another home run, when Papelbon goes 2 innings and a third, the morning after hangover of disappointment and disgust is glacial.

The Red Sox bullpen--despite Papelbon and Bard--is a steaming heap of crap.

Lester pitched quite well despite the 4 runs he gave up. He was dominate for most of the outing striking out 10 and throwing a cut fastball to righties that dropped out of the zone. He looked great again.

It may not be completely fair to pin the game on one person last night... You could make the argument that Lester let the Tigers back in, that he was left in too long, and that the offense wasn't able to muster any extra inning magic. You could also say the Tigers pen is that much better than the Red Sox. Ok, sure. Go ahead and make your reasoned thinking.

But a 6-5 lead in the 8th inning and one of the best closers in the game waiting to get the save, you end up keying on that one guy who could not get it done. If Oki isn't throwing well by allowing base hits and a walk, bring in Delcarmen or someone else (Bard was not available last night). Don't rely on your faith in a guy when he simply isn't getting the job done. Slow the game down. Make V-Mart walk out and talk to Oki. Send Farrell out there. Get guys ready. Okajima would be the first one to tell you he did not have it and he's not going to be hurt if you have to take him out.

A little more tough love for the pen to protect a lead and win a game is in order here as is proactive bullpen management. Take them out if you have to, please!

The Sox, Two Months In

Tony Massarotti and his super-branded page of wonders (seriously: what's with that massive leaderboard?  Is Massarotti really that much of a sports journalism celebrity?  And do you think Shaughnessy and Ryan sit around and bitch about all of the special attention Massarotti gets?) have a round up of the Sox thus far in 2009.  Most of it isn't too surprising: the offensive has holes, the defense has holes, the starting pitching hasn't been the knockout we'd expect, etc.

However, I was pretty surprised to see how poorly the Sox are doing when it comes to throwing out base runners: almost as many runners caught by pick off as by throw to second?  59 stolen bases allowed in two months?  I know there were a couple of bad days, like when Carl Crawford did his best roadrunner impression over and over and over again, but who knew those bad days turned into giving up over a steal a game for 51 games?  I'd be curious to know if that statistic is making something out of nothing: how many of those steals turned into runs?  Would the Sox be in first now with a good-sized lead if they were more effective at holding runners?  Somehow I doubt it.

Speaking of first, we probably wouldn't be  anywhere near sniffing distance of first place if it weren't for the second (and far more pleasant) surprise factor: our bullpen rocks.  And not just in the warm and fuzzy feelings that I get whenever Okajima or MDC or Ramirez or (usually) Papelbon comes to the mound, but in numbers that would make the original Red Scare jealous: the Sox are first in the American League in bullpen ERA, a full run ahead of their closest competitor, the other Sox.  Bullpen may not be everything, but if we come into October and the bullpen is still pitching at this level, I will be a very happy man.

So: some good things, some bad things, and a cautiously optimistic start to the season.  Next up: the Sox not falling prey to the June Swoon.  My money is still loyally down on a Papi-led breakout.

Coco No More

The Sox confirmed that they traded Coco Crisp to the Royals for reliever Ramon Ramirez. Unless you're far more familiar with the ins and outs of the Royals bullpen than I, I'm sure you had a similar first reaction: who? Fear not: once you take a look at the numbers, dealing Coco straight up for a no-name reliever makes sense. At 27, the right-handed Ramirez has three calendar years' experience in the majors - two in Colorado, one in Kansas City - with phenomenal numbers (ERA+ above 140, K:BB ratio of about 2:1, WHIP and ERA that have both fallen over time) over sixty-plus appearances in both 2006 and 2008. The catch is 2007, when Ramirez hurt himself twice: a sprained right elbow in April and a right elbow inflammation in September, and spent of the rest of the time sucking wind. Clearly he healed well enough to continue his march forward this past year, but a guy with a damaged wing who relies on low-90s hard stuff to make his living is a potential liability as he gets older. The Herald believes there's a possibility of Ramirez figuring as a set piece in a larger trade later on.

In addition to confirming the long-term decision to support the Jacoby Ellsbury Project in Boston, this move means happy trails to Covelli Crisp, the little engine who never quite could in Boston. To be sure, he had his hot streaks, particularly in the second half of this season, when he picked up the slack from Ellsbury's rookie/sophomore struggles, but the guy who came to Boston to replace Johnny Damon never really established himself after breaking his finger in early April, 2006 in Baltimore. Best of luck to you in KC, Coco; I hear they're big into OBP now. We'll always have 2007 and the time you almost broke your wrist sliding into the triangle.

Speaking of Baltimore: glad to hear the Orioles are acknowledging their home city now.