The Mets Have a Much Better Bullpen Than the Red Sox

Don't tell me you cannot compare bullpens in the National League to the American. Sure, there is the the DH in the AL, and there is that virtually-automatic out with the pitcher in the NL, so in theory it should be harder for the AL and the NL would dominate the bullpen rankings. Not so fast.

Half of the top 10 bullpens by ERA in the entire major leagues are from the AL.

That's right. AL pens have the second (Twins), fifth (Tampa Bay), sixth (Rangers), eighth (Yankees) and tenth (White Sox) BEST earned run averages in all of baseball and they are all playoff-contending teams.

The Boston Red Sox rank 20 out of 30 teams in the majors with a bullpen ERA of 4.36. Yup, they are down with the Mariners, Indians, Orioles, Angels and Royals--not to mention all of the worst teams in the NL like the Pirates, Astros, Brewers, and Diamondbacks.

If there is one thing that is KILLING me this year it's the total lack of getting new, effective pitching in that bullpen. Sure, August waivers are not done yet, but in the meantime the hopes of catching the Rays for the Wild Card spot keep fading--slowly--like a deadly bacteria eating at the core of my being.

Dice K keeps the offense in the game yesterday but is replaced by Manny Delcarmen who serves up a fat, first-pitch meatball to Michael Young for the 3-run shot to left center. Ugh. As if it wasn't enough to have to watch Ellsbury go back on the DL for the third freakin' time on Friday on a play at first base!


I'm not even really talking about Bard or Papelbon here (I'm willing to ignore the Toronto meltdown right now because the flukes will happen). I know they have the talent to get outs. It's the rest of these guys that are killing me. What is it going to take for Theo to make a freaking move with this pen? If run prevention is so damn important, how can you begin to compete with all the playoff contending teams in the AL without some legitimate 6th and 7th inning help?

Out of the 14 teams in the AL, the Red Sox rank 9th... Ugh. It's unreal. It's not easy catching the pitching of this division, I get it. But let's be clear, management is not recognizing its problem with its employees. Take action during the season...

I didn't want to pick on the Mets, but hey, it's at least something positive coming out of Flushing. They rank eleventh with an ERA of 3.77. Omar Minaya is better than Theo with his bullpen signings and picks.

Now that stings.

Expect Theo To Make a Relief Move

Recent history with Theo (as Gordon Edes of ESPN deftly points out) tells us he will do everything he can to get a quality reliever either at the deadline or during the August waiver period. Edes gives a very nice timeline back to 2003 of all the key relief pitching moves Epstein has made in his Sox tenure--many that were crucial pieces of playoff and World Series-winning teams--and moves that opened up roster spots for now-legends of Red Sox lore.

Edes reminded me of the Scott Williamson trade who had an amazing run in the playoffs in 2003 (and I'm still not sure why Grady Little didn't use him in place of Pedro in the ALCS game 7). He also reminded me of the Shea Hillenbrand trade to the D-backs that allowed David Ortiz to get more playing time. Don't forget about Myers in 2004 or Bradford in 2005 or Billy Wagner last year.

The problem is the team could have used one right before the West coast trip. The pen has a collective ERA of something like 4.44 (I read somewhere) and is the fourth worst in the league. You can't get to the playoffs with those kind of numbers.

With knowledge of how deeply invested the Sox are in starting pitching, the relief pitching has to be a real target. Can Theo stay that patient as close games are consistently being lost in the 8th and 9th innings? That debacle on Sunday with Oki and the pen was very troubling.

Some rumors are that Sox are courting Scott Downs of Toronto heavily (as are the Yankees). 

My fears about this road trip are almost completely true. Some good starting pitching has been there, but not for the bullpen. At least V-Mart and Hermida are back. Buccholz pitched very nice last night, getting out of jams and going pretty deep with only one early home run given up.

Ellsbury played in the Gulf league and is due back with the team next week. Hopefully guys forget all the BS with where he rehabbed and welcome him back.

Still, even with the win lat night, the Yanks and Rays also won (Garza, the bastard, threw a no-hitter), so they're still 8 games back. Not 9 games back, but too damn close.

Lackey takes the hill tonight in his former home stadium in Anaheim. Should be a bit surreal for him--especially after he drills one of his former teammates in retaliation of a Fernando Rodney fastball in Beltre's back after Ortiz hit a 2-run homer last night off him. The umpire was way too quick to warn benches last night and Tito could visibly be seen saying either to Rodney or the umpire (probably both) "F U C K You!"

That was awesome.

I am always leery of guys who go back to their old stadiums, so I don't expect much from Lackey tonight. He'll probably get a mix of cheers and boos, though since it's Anaheim, he's bound to have a strong Red Sox following. I've been to that place many times and the Sox fans come out of the woodwork in the OC for that series.

Time for tortillas as frisbees and loud chants of "Let's go Red Sox!" and, of course, death to the rally monkey.

Beckett Now Has Back Spasms from Taking BP?

Stirring up unnecessary controversy is not my thing, but I do find the timing of announcing the recent rotation moves with Beckett to be a little fishy. Good fishy, but suspicious nonetheless.

Let's be clear: I'm all for the moves. Put the man on the DL if you want to take him out of the pressure and focus on mechanics. The DL is not being openly discussed yet with the media, but I expect it is happening between Theo, Farrell and Tito already. I think it's coming. I do not think Theo and crew are willing to keep putting a guy they signed for four more years (at $18 mil per) back out there right now.

I will be honest, the back spasms thing feels like a convenient story and I totally understand why they come up with these white lies. It's to keep the media off his back and out of his head. His self-frustration is at an all time high. There is no doubt in my mind he threw at Jeter to force in a run. A guy who does that needs some of the pressure of being called "the ace" released, and it's the kind that can only come from working side sessions and possibly facing Triple A or Double A batters.

Work on the mechanics, build the confidence back up. Shut him down for a week or two. Yes. Do it.

All weekend and through yesterday, Tito and crew have been saying there is nothing physically wrong with Beckett, but that there were some mechanical things to work on in a side session, particularly with his curveball and his sidestep. Ok, so Beckett will skip the Toronto game on Wednesday (who has seen Josh frequently), Wakefield goes back in to the rotation and Beckett would pitch Friday in Comerica against the Tigers. Sure. Sounds reasonable.

"The additional side for Josh is to reinforce, particularly out of the stretch, him getting back to the proper balance point and not getting too spread out to where he loses his balance on his fastball,'' Farrell told ESPN's Gordon Edes. "When he gets in proper position, his curveball is less readable to an opposing hitter. Part of this at times is his constant use of the slide step. That can cause some of the havoc we're trying to correct.''

Then, evidently, Beckett was taking batting practice last night in the indoor cages (for inter-league games a couple of weeks from now--yes, that works) and tweaked his back, and, oh hey by the way, he had been feeling some pain in his back over the weekend, but no one knows when exactly. During the game? After? No one really knows.

Fine. Whatever. I think we know why this is going on. He's in a extremely negative place. After the Yankees debacle Friday, Beckett was asked by reporters how we would describe his season up to this point. His answer? One word: S-H-I-T.

Bottom line: They want to get Beckett right, and I applaud them for taking whatever action they need to make this work. If the media buy this back spasm thing, then fantastic. Let the man sort it out.

I could totally be wrong and the story is true. I do not hope there are back spasms because that would mean the next 4 years are going to include frequent trips to the DL.

Here's an interesting thing to note from last night's game from Amalie Benjamin of Boston.com:

Former director of performance enhancement Don Kalkstein was in the clubhouse before the game. Kalkstein used to be the Sox’ sports psychologist, and still consults with the club.

Perhaps this consultant was in the indoor batting cages advising Beckett on his swing?

[Image by dgaproductions via Flickr cc 3.0]

Theo Epstein Cares Not For Your Arbitration

I was going to look over the news of the Papelbon signing without comment, until it occurred to me that the Sox just rewarded a decline in performance with the largest contract ever given to a fourth-year closer. The Globe puts the numbers pretty well:

His ERA was down from 2008 (2.34), but perhaps the more notable change was his WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched), which increased to a career-high 1.15. His WHIP was 0.95 in 2008 and 0.77 in 2007. His strikeout-to-walk ratio also sank to a career low (for any of his full seasons in the majors) of 3.17-1. He put up a mark of 9.63-1 in 2008 and 5.60-1 in 2007. He set a career high in walks with 24.

The new deal comes after the expiration of a deal that made him the highest paid first-year arbitration-eligible closer, and two years after the deal that broke the record for highest salary to a non-arbitration-eligible closer...and four months after the blown save that ended the season in a sweep. I'm not saying that Papelbon is washed up or shouldn't be paid as an elite closer, but even if the Sox are keeping the money on a short leash because they think they'll replace Papelbon with Bard in a year or two, why pay an arbitration-eligible player that much more just to keep things from moving to the arbiter? My theory: it's Theo's arbitration-free streak that make Boston willing to pay more, even if the numbers suggest they're taking a risk. After all, it seems logical that keeping younger players from having to go to a third party to make the money they think is fair would give the Sox a reputation as a place where young players would want to sign, making signing draft picks and motivating minor league talent a little easier.

Don't Look Now...

...but I think the Sox just got played. Hard. In fact, if Sean McAdam's article in the Herald is to be believed, Boras shopped Boston's final offer to New York just to see if he could get a little more value, playing for time by fudging details about Teixeira's need to think a little more before he made a decision. In the end, Boras' powers of persuasion and Cashman's recent desire to be a one-man economic prop made the difference, and now the Sox end up looking like the desparate dude at the bar running up a skyhigh tab buying the hottest woman in the bar drinks all night, only to find out she's been using him to keep her friends in booze before she leaves with the guy with the better lines.

So the front office ends up looking a little stupid, but frankly, I'm relieved (well, partially relieved. I would have preferred to see Teixeira go to the Nationals and play hell with the NL East next year, but that was probably just a Boras-manufactured pipe dream anyway). As I said before, having Teixeira's bat in the lineup would have been great, but seeing either Lowell or Youkilis replaced by the merc-of-the-month would kill just a little more of this team's soul. The 2009 Red Sox might not hit as hard without Teixeira, and they'll certainly face more of a challenge from New York, but I feel like they'll have just a little more soul.

Beating the Rays, Or The Evolution of Moneyball

I won't go into series analysis today; the previews across the web have done a fine job giving effective coverage to all angles. Personally, I recommend Paul SF's excellent dissection over at YFSF and Evan Brunell's exploration of key series factors at Fire Brand of the American League, but suffice it to say that all commentary points to another tight ALCS with a good potential for Red Sox victory. Boston in seven games sounds like a good call to me.

No, what inspired me to put fingers to keyboard this morning is an article on The Process, Theo Epstein's term for the Red Sox player development system. As we all know, Boston's heavy investment in its farm system has paid enormous dividends: Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youkilis, Lowrie, Masterson, Delcarmen, and Papelbon are all homegrown and all key components in Boston's championship-level success in the past two years. What intrigues me about the Globe's description of The Process - as necessarily undetailed, beyond the description of a consistent manual of development used by every level of the organization, as it may be - is that we are witnessing the next level of evolution in the scientific process of player development made famous (and infamous) in Moneyball.

Moneyball was all about the use of statistics to determine player value. Its development by Billy Beane was the result of the need to produce results in the straightened circumstances of Oakland A's baseball, but a perfect storm of circumstance lead to its adoption by other number-minded GMs across the sport. In the process, it won approval among the population of statistically-minded fans, popularized a revolution in how people watch and comment on the game, etc. But as Moneyball and more vocal stats organs like Fire Joe Morgan make clear, using statistics to predict future performance explicitly denies the use of any other predictive system. You know, like intangibles. Make up. Whatever black magic it is that scouts use when they look at players in high school and college.

We all know that Epstein is a Beane disciple from back in the day. But here's where the evolution comes in: when Theo talks about the club's pre-draft evaluation of player make up:

"We sit down and brainstorm about what we're looking for, which attributes we think make a major league player successful, and then we question our own assumptions," Epstein says. "OK, we think we want players who are tough and gritty. Well, what does that really mean? Can you actually see that in a 17-year-old, in a 21-year-old? Does it look different when he's 17 than when he's 25? We think we want players who are intense and baseball-centric, who are focused on the game. Well, what about players who are too intense and too focused? Do they put too much pressure on themselves?"

In essence, applying science (through sports psychology) to the profiles of players whose statistics attract organization attention, adding a layer of filtering to the selection of players that Boston hopes will do well in the big leagues. Taking the idea even further - since I'm sure the Rays, with their own intensive focus on player development, have a process similar to that of Boston - this ALCS might well be a demonstration of the powers of science in player selection. Given the parity between the two clubs and the expectation of a long, fun series, seeing this type of science in play has to be a good thing for fans of the sport.

Papelbon is Ours! Wait? What Do You Mean He Already Was?

So you may have heard this flap about Papelbon. He was not too pleased with his contract and the inevitable renewal. He felt he was getting low balled and wanted his prime cut.

And then I saw Prince Fielder said something too…

And then Nick Markakis?

What’s going on here? These are second year guys! Sure they have some great numbers and are set to be future all-stars… but big paydays? Not so fast fellas. I hate to stand on some soap-box and say things like “players didn’t want so much back in my day” cause let's face it… my “day” was like the ‘90s… but this trend of “money before numbers” is pretty ridiculous.

Well at least it seems that the Papelbon issue was semi-resolved. The Red Sox gave the big guy a pretty impressive contract that wasn’t EXACTLY where he wanted it… but it was enough to keep him sated.

At least until its time to sign him for real. Theo, get your checkbook ready.

Happy Holidays From Keep Your Sox On!

'Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the house
Not a creature was stirring, except for Curt Schilling calling out Roger Clemens in his blog;

The stockings were hung by the chimney with care,
In hopes that Johan Santana soon would be there (but please don't trade Ellsbury);

Red Sox Nation was nestled all snug in their beds,
While visions of future championships danced in their heads;

And Hazel Mae in her 'kerchief, and Jerry Remy in his cap,
Had just settled down for a long winter's nap,

When out on the lawn there arose such a clatter,
Jerry sprang from the bed to see what was the matter.

Away to the window he flew like a flash,
Tore open the shutters and threw up the sash (making sure not to knock over Wally).

The moon on the breast of the new-fallen snow
Gave the lustre of mid-day to objects below,

When, what to his wondering eyes should appear,
But a miniature sleigh, and eight championship pitchers in the guise of reindeer ("Nahmally," he thought "you don't see pitchers playing reindeeah"),

With a young driver, so lively and quick,
He knew in a moment it must be St. Theo.

More rapid than eagles his coursers they came,
And he whistled, and shouted, and called them by name;

"Now, Wakefield! now, Beckett! now, Matsuzaka and Okajima!
On, Papelbon (and your overeager dog)! on Delcarmen! on, Tavarez and Timlin!
To the top of the porch! to the top of the Green Monster!
Now dash away! dash away! dash away all!"

As dry leaves that before the wild hurricane fly,
When they meet with an obstacle, mount to the sky,
So up to the house-top the coursers they flew,
With the sleigh full of rings, and Theo Epstein too.

And then, in a twinkling, Jerry heard on the roof
The prancing and pawing of each pitching foot.

As Jerry drew in his hand, and was turning around,
Down the chimney St. Theo came with a bound.

He was dressed in slacks and button down shirt from his head to his foot,
And his clothes were all tarnished with ashes and soot;

A bundle of player development profiles he had flung on his back,
And he looked like a peddler just opening his pack.

And Jerry laughed when he saw him, in spite of himself;
A wink of Theo's eye and a twist of his head,
Soon gave Jerry to know he had nothing to dread;

He spoke not a word, but went straight to his work,
And filled all the stockings; then turned with a jerk,

And laying his finger aside of his nose,
And giving a nod, up the chimney he rose;

He sprang to his sleigh, to his team gave a whistle,
And away they all flew like the down of a thistle.

But Jerry heard him exclaim, ere he drove out of sight,
"Happy Hot Stove to all, and to all a good-night."

This Crow Tastes Awesome!

A little over a year ago, I was in Yankees Stadium to see the second game of a Sox/Yankees doubleheader, becoming witness to one of the more improbable and exciting comebacks of the 2006 season, in what turned out to be the last gasp for a Boston team that was past due for the fork in the back. The second game was Dustin Pedroia's 21st game after his call up in late August, and he was mired in the struggle that would haunt him through the beginning of 2007, with an OPS of .489 that was remarkable only because it had doubled in 11 days. There were two Boston fans in the stands nearby who kept calling him DP (as memory serves, he did hit into a lot of double plays), and who led the ironic cheer when he jumped the pass ball that scored the tying run. That was Boston's second baseman of the future, pride of the farm system: a short guy with a big swing who couldn't seem to buy a hit.

Two months later, the Sox announced Pedroia would be starting at second or shortstop in 2007, sight poorly seen. Robin was outraged, I was surprised, and our friend DC...well, DC was outraged, so we let him write about it, and give Pedroia a new nickname (Wonderboy) in the process. Wonderboy indeed; it seemed like most of us couldn't figure out why Theo was so high on his potential for success in his first full season.

We all know what happened next: a miserable April, a whole month of Sox fans calling for Pedroia's head, for Francona's head, for Theo's head, for Alex Cora to start...the typical paranoia and venom of the passionate fan. No finger pointing here: our archives from April are full of it. Then Magic May, steady improvement, and all of the sudden the Kid Who Couldn't is making all of us naysayers look very, very foolish; OPS always above .800, strong fielding with more than a few web gems, a string of post-season hits that were usually likely to touch off a rally, playing with a cracked bone in his hand...any Boston fan who wasn't chanting Rookie of the Year by August wasn't right in the head. The Baseball Writers Association of America agreed, awarding Pedroia the AL Rookie of the Year award for the 2007 season yesterday, making him the first Red Sox to win the award in ten years, and the first qualifying rookie second baseman to hit .317 for the season.

Congratulations, Dustin. We'll all go eat this delicious plate of crow, never so happy to be wrong about something in our lives.

Game 89: Crazy Train… Last Stop?

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 5, Toronto Blue Jays 6

Theo: This is it fellas. This is the final straw. He hasn’t won since June 20th and I think it’s apparent to everyone that this is the end.

Francona: Whoa whoa whoa, let’s not be to hasty here Theo. Are you sure you want to do this?

Farrell: Yeah I mean, tonight it was kinda Snyder’s fault. Are you sure you want to tell Tavarez he’s going back to the pen?

Theo: Absolutely! We got Jon Lester waiting in the wings, Schilling is coming back soon and besides, I am tired of all the crazy shenanigans this guy pulls.

Francona: Ok whatever… but you have to tell him.

Theo: FINE! Call Tavarez in here. I’ll tell him what’s what!

Farrell: Ummm hey Julian! Could you join us in here for a second?

Tavarez: Yesh? Was up skip?

Francona: Well Julian we got some things we need to…. Oh my GOD! Why are you dripping with blood?

Tavarez: I dunno. Why? You gots a problem?

Francona: NO! I mean, no… umm Theo here wants to tell you something.

Theo: Yes that’s right I wanted to ummm… tell you Julan that uhhhh… hey are you drinking that blood?

Tavarez: Yeah, I gotta or it gets all on the ground.

Farrell: I’m gonna be sick…

Theo: …yes… well as I was saying (gulp) ummm… you did a hell of a job without much offense tonight and… ummm well I think you should know that we don’t blame you at all and this all falls on the shoulders of Kyle Snyder.

Tavarez: I know man, I know.

Theo: You do?

Tavarez: Yeah. Who blood you think this is?

Book Review: David Ortiz with Tony Massarotti - Big Papi: My Story of Big Dreams and Big Hits

Three years ago, the woman who is now my wife asked me to name my favorite Red Sox player growing up. It was a tough question: I had always held an irrational affection for the Gator, but nothing resembling favoritism. "Well," she said, "how about now?" "David Ortiz," I said. No hesitation needed.

Thus when the publishers of Ortiz's new memoir, Big Papi: My Story of Big Dreams and Big Hits, contacted me and asked me if I wanted review the book on this blog, I did a little jig: not only because a publisher was asking me for my opinion (one of the more gratifying things about running a blog is people acknowledging respect for your written thoughts), but because I would be writing about the writings of my favorite player. As it turns out, not too hard of a task: doing my best to keep things objective, I think the book is pretty good.

My biggest concern before I started reading My Story... was that the book might read like a typical post-game interview; a collection of bland quotes and carefully edited stories that said everything by saying nothing. I was curious as to how much of himself David would put into his book. I needn't have worried - it being David Ortiz I shouldn't have worried anyway - and I can happily say that the results, while occasionally a little repetitive, are an excellent window in Big Papi's thoughts, dreams and motivations over the ten years he's been in the major leagues.

Written in a fun, loose, conversational style that reads like an informal pre-season chat between Ortiz and the reader, My Story...has two big things going for it:

1. The free-flowing narrative Ortiz and Massarotti adopted when editing Papi's conversations. Everything fits the time line of Ortiz's life, from his childhood in the Dominican through his time in the minors and majors with the Mariners, Twins and Red Sox, but thankfully, there's no rigid structure. If Papi wants to introduce a side thread into the main weave of his story, he does so as naturally as if he was telling you the story in person. It's very effective style; I don't think there's a better way to make a naturally distant figure like a celebrity seem more human.
   
2. To help establish historical perspective and to keep Ortiz's story in context, Massarotti wrote several interjectory chapters that he calls "Stepping Out of the Box." Each chapter covers someone from baseball who's had an effect on Ortiz's professional career - Pedro, Theo, Torii Hunter - and reinforces, in Massarotti's sportswriter style, one of My Story...'s main themes: no man succeeds on his own. Mixing with Papi's looser interviews, the straightforward Massarotti chapters give the book a nice balance.

All of this praise is not to say the book is perfect; as I mentioned above, David does start to repeat himself a bit at the end, as he tries to drive home his point about needing a support network to really succeed, but overall I found Big Papi: My Story of Big Dreams and Big Hits an interesting and inspiring read worth the price of admission.

Dissecting Schilling's Negotiation

Remember how Curt Schilling said he'd be back in baseball in 2008? I'm sure you all remember that he did - I mean do you remember literally how he did so? He called WEEI, breaking the news to his beloved public (and I use beloved in both directions) using the same forum he's used many times since he became a Red Sox. At the time Schilling, who acts as his own agent, said that he'd either go into the season with a contract extension from Boston or declare free agency for the first time in his career after the season ends.

Fast forward to yesterday, when Schilling called the radio station again, this time to announce that Theo Epstein told him that there would be no contract before the season starts. According to Shaughnessy, both radio announcements were made without prior knowledge of the Red Sox brass, a move he correctly called "Schilling's bluff." When the media interviewed Epstein about the matter, he said that age (Schilling will be 41 this year) was the primary motivation for not granting the extension.

Robin called me earlier this afternoon distraught by the idea of Curt Schilling even thinking of pitching somewhere else, but he admitted to being overly emotional; I think it's clear this situation is a straightforward example of the art of winning a negotiation.

Curt Schilling is a man who knows how to use the media to strengthen his position in the eyes of the public (just like a politician, right?). His calls to WEEI were tactical in nature: they were surprise statements that attempted to move the negotiations into the public sphere, where he has more power (or thinks he does, at least) because of his success in Boston. Whether or not you think Schilling is a blowhard, the calls were a good idea on his part - if he was negotiating with a weaker management team, they might have gotten him the extension now.

However, the Sox had two advantages of their own in this negotiation. First, Theo knows full well that it's stupid to grant extensions to any player who's 40+ without seeing what sort of numbers they're going to put up during the year. If (God forbid) Curt's arm falls off mid-season, the Sox will look pretty stupid having promised him money in 2008. Second, all Theo needed to move the negotiations back into Sox control was to stick to his guns, both with Schilling (by telling him no extension until before the start of the season) and in public, by stating the obvious reasons why Boston can't afford to make an emotional decision in this matter. Even though the Sox aren't guaranteed Curt's services for 2008, they made the smart response to Schilling's move by calling him out and telling him he needs to prove his ability before they'll give him more money. Well played, guys, well played.