We Went 2 and 3!

I still can't quite believe we made it through that road trip with a 2 and 3 record. I mean that in a positive way, too: the Sox faced a pretty good Tigers team and an excellent group of Yankees and still managed to win two games out of five. In fact, that record doesn't tell the whole story: subtract a hit from Manny Delcarmen's line on Saturday and two from Papelbon's total on Tuesday and that record turns into a far more impressive 4 and 1 road trip.

Of course, those three hits - and the 28 runs given up by Red Sox pitching over that five game stretch - are indications of the problem Don's brought up over the past few days: the starters aren't pitching up to standard. The relievers aren't pitching up to standard. The offense is red hot in a way that really wasn't supposed to happen this year - the team slugged .486 with 11 home runs on this field trip - but if the team were a Viking longship, it wouldn't be clear if the offense was the only ones pulling the oars because the pitching needs a moment to catch its breath or because someone shot an arrow through its collective chest and it's dead. I don't want to give up hope just yet, because there are still flashes of life, but it would be awesome if both elements of the team would start clicking simultaneously. In the meantime: we went 2 and 3 on a road trip, and I'm pleasantly surprised.

ALDS Game 2: Living Bad Dreams

ALDS Game 2: Boston Red Sox 1, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 4

When I woke up yesterday morning, I had really hoped the complete and total lack of hitting was just a one-time failure; a product of really good pitching and a really bad night. This morning, I'm starting to wonder if we're in some sort of terrible dream, where those at-bats that do turn into base runners are few and far between; where rallies are devoured by a ravenous beast wearing a big, haloed A.

So the offense is in one of the worst-timed slumps possible and it seems for the moment that they won't be scoring a lot of runs in their traditional high-explosive style. In fact, looking back to September 21, when the Red Scare lost that game against Kansas City and the slide that landed the Sox firmly in the 2009 Wild Card slot really started, it doesn't seem like they've hit that well against above average pitching. Maybe this slump is a long time coming; maybe now that they're once again up against the wall they'll start to click again and we'll all be laughing about these first two steps down the road to a champagne-less ending to October.

However, regardless of what happens when the series resumes in Boston mid-day Sunday, I think these first two games have proven that Tito needs a faster hook on his starters. Elite veterans though Lester and Beckett may be, the lack of run support demands perfection from the starting pitcher, which becomes a smaller and smaller possibility as the game goes on. It's true that the bullpen isn't always perfect either, but changing things up before tight situations get really tight - when the starter gives up three or four runs - may be the only way to win right now.

Triumph of the Yankee Killer

They had their 2003 World Series-winning veteran pitcher. We had our 2003 World Series-winning veteran pitcher. They had their monster line up, their Alex Rodriguez with his .505 slugging percentage that's not only bolstered their line up, but given the previously lacklustre Mark Teixeira the shot in the arm needed for the Yankees to claw their way into first. We had Jason Bay, whose .524/.655/1.143 line in 21 at-bats when facing pinstriped pitching has made him the Yankee Killer the Sox need to lead the charge. The stage seemed set for a showdown of epic proportions.

Oh, and we also had Big Papi.

Because while their Marlins veteran looked like he needed a GPS to find the strike zone and our Marlins veteran was taking a one hitter through six before handing things off to the Red Scare, the Yankees announcing crew was talking about the fall of David Ortiz. 'Was his batspeed down,' they wondered? 'Terry Francona said he didn't think so,' they announced, but they thought anything could be possible. There were some valid questions about when he was swinging, but the conclusion seemed to be that David Ortiz would no longer be the threat to the Yankees he had been in the past and - let's be completely honest here - he should probably consider throwing in the towel.

And that's when Burnett, who had been trying to establish Ortiz on the upper portions of the outside of the plate, came back into the heart of the zone with a 2-2 fastball. Round came the classic swing and only the previous two months' frustration put any question on what was a no-doubt home run to deepest center. Out it sailed into the night, silencing the critics (and Yankee victory hopes) for one more night even as the fans begged for a curtain call from their hero. Let me tell you: the rest of the game might have been a bit dull, but that one piece of schadenfreude was absolutely delicious.

The Sox, Two Months In

Tony Massarotti and his super-branded page of wonders (seriously: what's with that massive leaderboard?  Is Massarotti really that much of a sports journalism celebrity?  And do you think Shaughnessy and Ryan sit around and bitch about all of the special attention Massarotti gets?) have a round up of the Sox thus far in 2009.  Most of it isn't too surprising: the offensive has holes, the defense has holes, the starting pitching hasn't been the knockout we'd expect, etc.

However, I was pretty surprised to see how poorly the Sox are doing when it comes to throwing out base runners: almost as many runners caught by pick off as by throw to second?  59 stolen bases allowed in two months?  I know there were a couple of bad days, like when Carl Crawford did his best roadrunner impression over and over and over again, but who knew those bad days turned into giving up over a steal a game for 51 games?  I'd be curious to know if that statistic is making something out of nothing: how many of those steals turned into runs?  Would the Sox be in first now with a good-sized lead if they were more effective at holding runners?  Somehow I doubt it.

Speaking of first, we probably wouldn't be  anywhere near sniffing distance of first place if it weren't for the second (and far more pleasant) surprise factor: our bullpen rocks.  And not just in the warm and fuzzy feelings that I get whenever Okajima or MDC or Ramirez or (usually) Papelbon comes to the mound, but in numbers that would make the original Red Scare jealous: the Sox are first in the American League in bullpen ERA, a full run ahead of their closest competitor, the other Sox.  Bullpen may not be everything, but if we come into October and the bullpen is still pitching at this level, I will be a very happy man.

So: some good things, some bad things, and a cautiously optimistic start to the season.  Next up: the Sox not falling prey to the June Swoon.  My money is still loyally down on a Papi-led breakout.

In Search of Some Metal Relief

Some cross-pollination of interests: I really love metal. Robin also loves metal. The Red Sox need relief pitching. Pat Neshek is a relief pitcher; a pretty good one, too. Pat Neshek loves metal (and real metal, too; his choices for entrance music include selections by Lamb of God and Chimaira). Sounds like a match made in heaven...

If only he wasn't on the DL for the rest of the year...

Third Order Wins, The Second Half, and Playing With Luck

As we await the start of the second half of the season tonight at 10:05, I thought I'd share some observations about the current AL East standings, using a statistic I learned about yesterday: third-order wins.

About Third-Order Wins
For those of you unacquainted with any wins of any order beyond what you see in the newspaper box score, third-order wins are one of those statistical measurements that attempts - like the majority of non-mainstream baseball statistics - to give a more complete picture about the abilities of a baseball player (or, in this case, a baseball team). Specifically, third-order wins compute a team's win/loss record using two other stats: AEqR and AEqRA.

AEqR (Adjusted Equivalent Runs) measures the number of runs a team generates per out, adjusted for the quality of opponents they faced; AEqRA (Adjusted Equivalent Runs Allowed) measures the number of runs a team allows per out, adjusted for the quality of opponents faced. The adjustments relate to how well the opponent team pitches or hits; runs scored against a team like the Rangers, for example, will count less in AEqR than runs scored against a team like the A's, because the A's have a much better pitching staff than the Rangers. The inverse is true of AEqRA; runs scored by a team like the Red Sox will count less towards an opponent's AEqRA than runs scored by a team like the Blue Jays, because the Sox have a much better offense than the Jays.

Third-order wins combines AEqR and AEqRA into another stat that uses the measurements of runs scored and runs allowed to come up with adjusted win and loss totals that reflect how a team should be doing. Why do these numbers matter? Well, the difference between a third-order win and loss total and a real win and loss total tells you how lucky or unlucky a team's been; team with a real win total lower than their third-order win total have been unlucky, because they've acculumated fewer wins than the number of runs they've scored says they should. The cool thing about all of these numbers is that they can quantify a gut feeling about a team's performance into a measurement.

The 2008 Red Sox and Third-Order Wins
So, when it comes to luck, how are the Red Sox doing so far? Not too well, unfortunately, which shouldn't come to a surprise with anyone familiar with the tender ministrations of the Red Scare. The Sox are currently 57 and 40, but their third-order wins total put them at 62 and 35. Five games difference is bad enough, but rating the rest of the AL East by the same scale, the Sox would be five games up on the Rays instead of a paltry half game. These things are supposed to even out in the long run, which means one of two things: either we're all screwed and the adjustment in luck means less runs scored or more runs allowed in the second half of the season, or we're playing with house money and Boston's record is about to jump ahead of the competition. Personally, I'd prefer the later

Game 87: Crippled and Broken

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 6, Tampa Bay Rays 7

Tonight's post inspired by this song.

It's funny - in a totally unfunny, knock your teeth out sort of way - but I'm at a loss to say what the worst part of tonight's game was. I've narrowed it down to three choices; please help me out by voting in the comments (you can also feel free to suggest your own). It'll be like a little game we play to assuage our angst and keep from putting limbs through walls in frustration. Fun!

1. Julio Lugo's hard, totally illegal slide into second base in the top of the fourth inning, trying to break up a double play. Lugo was so far out of the basepaths when he hit the skids that the umpires ruled Jacoby Ellsbury out at first anyway, ending the inning and taking away a run that had just crossed the plate. Had that run scored, we might still be playing this game right now. It's possible that with a legal slide Ellsbury would have been out anyway - that'd be the idea behind the ruling - but Lugo's used up pretty much all of his store of good will and therefore doesn't get the benefit of the doubt. Next stop: Jose Offerman territory. Woo!
   
   
2. Terry Francona's decision to do a hit and run two plays in a row with Varitek at the plate in the ninth. We all love Tek, but while line drives are his speciality, it's not like they're anywhere close to his most common plate result. Running the play the first time was a good way to surprise the Rays - and it almost worked - but two times in a row, with Mike Lowell at first and outs in short supply, well, that was just foolish. Kinda move Grady Little would pull, and we don't like to see that.
   
   
3. The bullpen. Need I say more? Another meltdown courtesy of our trial-by-fire setup guys. Okajima's appearance so early in the game was disconcerting, but I guess they've got his ego on bed rest and a heart rate monitor right now and needed a lower pressure situation to get him a shot of self-confidence. How's that reliever market looking?

You'll have to excuse me now; I'm going to go have a small heart attack and pace the floor for a little while. Who's ready for the Yankees?

Game 43: Manny Ramirez, Fielding Superstar

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 3, Baltimore Orioles 6

Last night, while I was brooding over the results of this ridiculous game and wondering how I was going to write yet another post on how our bullpen is terrible and needs to be beaten with sticks, a sign out of the heavens (or off the TV) appeared: the clip of Manny's ultra rare 9 to 6 to 3 double play showed up on the local ABC news sports recap.

A sign, you say? How so? Remember that I live in Brooklyn, NY, far away from the confines of non-playoff New England sports news, where there are four baseball teams: the Yankees and the Mets and whoever they're playing that night. Showing a clip from a Red Sox game vacillates between the irrelevant and the indignant for most people down here - or so I would think. However, perhaps because he's a native son (of sorts), or because there really are more Red Sox fans down here than one would suspect, or maybe just because the play was so damn spectacular for anyone - let alone a guy whose slugging-first reputation proceeds him - to catch, there it was, in all its glory, on the small screen in New York City, giving me a sign.

If you haven't seen the catch yet, go watch it. Marvel at how the ball left Kevin Millar's bat, how it looked like a sure thing home run until it got to left field. Watch Manny, his dreadlocks flying, tracking that ball at a dead run. Watch him reach out, snag that ball on an exaggerated curve and hold on like it was most natural thing in the world. Then watch him, with the unique flair we've
come to know and love from Manny (particularly in the past two years) take this play from really special to super-freakin'-memorable (and more than worthy of becoming the sole focus of a blog post) by letting him momentum take him to the wall and then up the wall where he high fives a guy in a Red Sox shirt.
Oh, and then he throws the ball back into the infield, where Cora and Youkilis combine to nail Aubrey Huff and end the Orioles' half of the inning. That's a level of cool so unbelievable that the only comparison I can think of is if in one those old Bird versus Jordan commercials, one of them had used a random fan to help ricochet the ball on its way to the net.

So enjoy your day off, fellas (Lord knows you need it); I'll be thinking back to that catch all day and grinning when I think of the sequence: off the bat, in the glove, off the fan, off the shortstop, nothing but out.

Game 24: Our Bullpen is the SuXx0r

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 5, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 7

I really, really, really wanted to write about Justin Masterson and how well he did: six innings, four strikeouts, the eleven ground ball outs you'd expect to see from a sinkerballer, four walks that did no damage, an escape through a double play, one home run but a good job keeping things low in the zone (see the number of ground ball outs), etc. He brought peace, love, good will to all men and a controlled score to a team still staggering from flu-related illnesses, and if the bullpen could have done their jobs and kept the score under control, you'd all be treated to three paragraphs of discussion on sinking fastballs and the need for a strong defense. However...

We made up the Red Scare tag last spring as a joke about the embryonic nature of Boston's bullpen. This year, we've used it a (judicious) four times (counting today), but it's come to acquire a more menacing meaning: the Red Scare is becoming the collection of Red Sox arms who, despite expectations to the contrary, come into a game, blow the lead, and put pressure on the offense to win the game in spite of the damage. What's worse, the problematic pitcher (or pitchers) differs from game to game, so we're never exactly sure who's going to suck today. It's like watching a baseball version of Russian roulette, except no one gets a thrill when the bullet doesn't end up in their brain. It makes me wonder if someone's systematically poisoning the Red Sox, not giving them the flu.

Anyway, what amazes me is that the score ended up as close as it did. After the Angels exploded for six runs over the last three innings while their bullpen did the normal thing and kept the Sox off the bases, I entered fatalistic mode, where I console myself with fantasy baseball points and pray for the quick ending to the final outs. What's fortunate about this team (thus far) is that - unlike me - they don't give up: the ninth inning was exciting because despite the dispiriting shift in momentum, the Sox still managed to score two runs. I'll take that resurgence as the silver lining (it's April, after all, and I'm allowed), and hope that someone figures out the bullpen situation mighty quick.

Game 15: Hit 'em Up

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 5, Cleveland Indians 3

Despite the absence of Mike Lowell and the relative absence of David Ortiz (and his two game hitting streak) I've started to develop a genuine affection for how this year's offense works when it clicks. Partially it's the overwhelming effectiveness, where last night, for the second time this season ,the offense picked up the pitching and returned runs lost to the opposing team with vicious interest, scoring two for one, four for two, etc. You can't help but like the hitting on a team that stays that effective under pressure. But my affection also stems from how the Sox are stringing together hits - or how they seem to be stringing together hits - and how that differs from past teams. Let me explain.

Note: the following is based only partially on statistics and partially on impressions, and as is such is quite possibly wildly inaccurate. Bear with me. In the past (say 2003 to 2005), when Boston wanted to score runs, they'd do the baseball equivalent of filling up the power meter (yes, a video game metaphor) and then try and clobber the opposing pitcher. For the most part it worked, and the team enjoyed winning records, even in 2005 when the pitching wouldn't have scared (or stopped) a little leaguer. More recent teams have flirted with speed, courtesy of first Coco Crisp and then Julio Lugo, but - so far - the 2008 edition mixes speed, hitting, and plate patience in a way that opens far more offensive options. The mix of hitting and plate patience (and here's where statistics come in) is particularly interesting: most of Boston's hits come in more aggressive counts (the twenty hits on the first pitch exceeds hits on any other count, and hitters are more likely to swing and connect with two strike counts), but as the number of balls increase, so do the likelihood of walks.

The end result: the team has an sOPS+ (a measurement of the team's offensive ability relative to other teams) of 110 (100 is average). We're on a hot streak, and that helps, but I think what we've seen in the past few games is how the 2008 Boston offense is supposed to work, and not a case of luck. The pitching may still be a question mark, but the offense looks championship-worthy.

Game 13: Don't Give Dice-K a Big Lead

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 8, New York Yankees 5

In between the bouts of mind-numbing idiocy that Joe Morgan regularly injects into his broadcasts, he made an interesting point (I know: I was shocked, too): Dice-K doesn't seem to have the same intensity when he's pitching with a big lead that he does when things get close and tight. Not that Matsuzaka was pitching particularly well before Boston staked him to a big lead - he'd surrendered four walks of his six by the end of the third inning, when Boston's lead was only three runs - I wondered if there might be some statistical validity to Morgan's statement: does Dice-K need to keep his head in the game when he's acquired a large lead?

According to these stats I dug up on Baseball Reference, a change in focus might not be a bad idea: as the difference in score increases up to four runs (winning by or losing by), Dice-K's stats get worse and worse in all relevant categories: more hits, more walks, and most importantly, more runs. Compare those stats with high stress situations like close and late (tie game, ahead by one, or tying run on deck in the seventh inning or later) or (for a larger sample) with two outs and runners in scoring position, and Matsuzaka becomes much harder to hit, as if he needs the right pressure to perform at his highest level.

Hitting that extra level would have helped tonight. The Sox got lucky with Phillips Hughes' inexperience, and even luckier that David Aardsma and Javier Lopez had ten outs between them to stave off the Yankees' ever present offensive threats, but they scraped the bottom of the bullpen barrel a bit tonight right before going off to Cleveland. We'd better see the good side of Jon Lester tomorrow, or the relief pitching will revert to Red Scare faster than you can say, "ridiculously tough April schedule."

Totally unrelated, but way to go Gabe Kapler! The Hebrew Hammer strikes again!

Game 11: Caveat

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 1, New York Yankees 4

Can I say something? Can I inject a big caveat into the Chien-Mien Wang lovefest that's going down on YES - damn you, local blackouts - a caveat that I will preface by saying I didn't expect Buchholz to out pitch Wang tonight (ask Alan, he's the witness): yes, Wang pitched an excellent game tonight, stymieing the Sox over and over again with but the accidental home run and the error that should have been a single to mar the perfection. Yes, he was economical, efficient, exemplary in his extra-special ability to elicit out after out after out. But here's the thing: the weather helped him out like a mofo.

Wang is a sinkerballer, by definition a guy who lives and dies by the ground balls he generates. He didn't rely as much on the sinking fastball tonight because he was getting the outs in the air, but that heavy, damp air, with its 64% percent humidity, and dropping (read: stormy) pressure was taking out Red Sox fly balls with an efficiency that would make the DC Sniper envious.

Take the fifth inning, for example: four deep flies to center and right field, which all seemed like sure-thing home runs or wall-ballers when they left the bat. Only one (Drew's home run) reached its hoped-for destination, and only then because Bobby Abreu misplaced his leap. On a normal night, a few more of those flies turn into hits, Wang relies more on the sinker, and maybe the face of the game changes. Maybe his confidence drops a little bit, and that early success doesn't feed into a late-inning dominance. I don't begrudge the Yankees for winning on a smart strategy (or a coincidence), but I wouldn't have minded some sharing of the love.

Also: I regret writing off Clay too quickly today. He looked pretty good tonight, especially before the wheels started to come off in the fifth.

What to Do...What to Do

It wouldn't be a hot stove season at Keep Your Sox On unless our pal DC had a few pearls of baseball wisdom to dispense to the fortunate masses. Here's his take on how the front office is doing as they gear up for the 2008 campaign. Enjoy...

I've been promising to give my opinion of the off-season needs of the Old Towne Team ever since the World Series ended. So why am I so late in doing so? Well, let’s just say that living with Robin can apparently make you lazy through osmosis. So yeah, I know Theo and the boys have already done some things but its never too late to chime in. So without further ado, we might as well start with what’s already happened...

Moves Made:

• Schilling Re-signed – I would have approached this exactly as the front office did. The pitching market this off-season is as dreadful as Ron Jeremy’s physique, so why wouldn’t you throw a one year deal at Schill? Even if he’s no longer a top two guy, he's still a workhorse who competes, drives the rest of the pitching staff, and wants to win. Maybe he can even teach young Clay how to put a little meat on his bones.
  
  
• Lowell Re-signed – This too was ideal in my eyes. I was saying during the World Series that they should offer the Cuban George Clooney a 3 year deal with a club or mutual option for a 4th. Turns out, they got the man with the golden glove for 3 years without the option. So now we all win, Lowell gets paid, the Sox get a World Series MVP, we all get to enjoy his flawless defense and my girlfriend still has someone to think about while we’re in bed...yeah, don’t ask.
  
  
• Wake’s Option Picked Up – This was a no-brainer! Timmy Knuckles continues to be one of the biggest bargains in the league. The guy gives you quality innings, saves your pen, and is one of the vets who keeps things loose. Wake’s option will be picked up every year until he decides to hang it up...and then hopefully he’ll go teach the knuckleball to our A and AA squads.
  
  
• JT’s Option Picked Up – Much like signing Schilling, this makes total sense. The free agent relief pitchers this year are like a who’s who of crap. The devil that you know is much better than the devil that you don’t...particularly when the devil that you know is nuttier than squirrel turds and a quality relief option.

Work To Be Done:

I like the strategy that Theo and the moneymakers seem to be following. In short, secure the starting line up, re-arm the bullpen and then fill in the bench. So let’s look at these three tasks in order:

• Starting Lineup – With Lowell signed, the only decision to be made is who’s in center field. Personally, I like Coco. The guy is a freaking vacuum in center field, only if a vacuum was jet-propelled and was able to fly through the air like Bobby Orr. That being said, Jacoby is clearly the talk of the town and is clearly talented. Sounds like a no lose situation to this guy.
  
  
• Bullpen – As of right now we have a pen of Paps, Okie Dokie, MDC, JT Killer, Javier the Lesser, and Franken-Bronson. Unfortunately a quick perusal of the free agent market leaves you feeling like you just ate a crate of Hot Pockets. While optimistic Sox fans may have faith in the emergence of Bryan Corey and Brendan Donnelly, the reality is we’re talking about a 34 year old with only 3 years of experience in the bigs and a guy coming off Tommy John surgery. So, the front office is going to have to rescue some arms off of this year’s free agent scrap heap and they already missed out on the likes of Kerry Wood, David Riske and Scott Linebrink. Here are some viable options:
  
  
• Mike Timlin – This guy is quickly becoming the ageless wonder. Just when we were all writing him off this season, he came back and cut through more lumber than Paul Bunyan. As long as Tito doesn’t overuse him, he'll be great for 2008.
  
  
• Jeremy Affeldt – Managed to rejuvenate his career for this year’s NL Champs and he’s one of the few free agents who’s actually under 30.
  
  
• Ron Mahay – I don’t know...why not? I trust him more than LaTroy Hawkins.
  
  
• Bench – At this point our bench consists of Alex Cora and the aforementioned Ellsbury. That means we probably have 3 spots that need to be filled and they most likely need to be an outfielder, catcher and utility guy...
  
  
• Catcher – I know somehow Belli fell out of favor with the Boston fans. But here’s the deal, no other guy in the league is a sure thing when it comes to catching Timmy Knuckles. There is no youth available so you’re not getting Tek’s future replacement this off season. So why not go with the sure thing?
  
  
• Outfielder - Bobby Kielty: that huge home run in the World Series has got to be worth something right?
  
  
• Utility - Rob Mackowiak, Eric Hinske, Mike Lamb – None of them are going to carry a team any time soon. But each will give you innings at multiple positions and they all have experience starting games if need be.

Irons in the Fire:

You didn’t think we could go through this roundup without discussion of the blockbuster trade rumors, did you? Honestly, the Santana trade makes me uneasy because of the size of the contract that it will take to complete this deal. $25 million a year is a lot of money for any pitcher. At this point, making a trade for Erik Bedard is more enticing. This trade will cost the Sox fewer prospects and less money. In fact, the ideal move here would be something along the lines of Lester, Coco, Jed Lowry and a mid-to-low level prospect for Bedard and Kevin Millar. This gets Theo the splashy pitcher that he wants, solves the need for a utility guy and makes Boston the most fun-filled clubhouse in the league again. Everybody wins! Regardless of who the Sox trade for (Santana, Bedard, Haren) the real concern here is what does this mean about Dice-K? Do Theo and the boys no longer see him as Schilling’s replacement as 1A to Beckett’s 1?

2007 ALCS Game 2: Mind Riot

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 6, Cleveland Indians 13

I was crying from my eye teeth and/Bleeding from my soul
And I sharpened my wits on a dead man’s skull

Even though J.D. Drew's first season with the Red Sox has fallen far short of anyone's expectations - witness the OBP and SLG scores, the home run totals, the numbers of hits, all off last year's mark, far short career highs and, at $14.4 million a season, not what Boston paid to see - no one in a logical, rational frame of mind would say that Drew is not an upgrade over Trot Nixon, whose market value might be five times less than Drew, but whose returns on investment - fewer hits, about 150 less plate appearances in 40 fewer games, less power, etc. all in a body a year older and far more banged up - has removed him from consideration as a starting right fielder. Trot Nixon has dirt dogged himself into a veteran utility role, pure and simple.

I built an elevator from his bones/Had climb to the top floor just/To stamp out the coals

We look at the stats and the history and we know all of these things to be true on an intellectual level. The higher courses of our brains reassure us with facts and figures, telling us that while day-to-day baseball is fluky, things eventually trend out to prove the superiority or inferiority of a choice. J.D. Drew is the better right fielder; this is known. But that current of rational thought is just a cheap veneer, cracking and melting away from the pressure of the primitive, emotional parts of the brain that focus all too easily on one thing: when J.D. Drew came up to bat in the eighth inning with a chance to start the third (and final) Red Sox rally, he hit a liner to center field. When Trot Nixon came up in similar situation in the eleventh inning, he hit the single that scored the go-ahead run. "Trot Nixon beat us," we rage, "why isn't he on the Red Sox anymore?"

And the candle was burning yesterday/Like somebody’s friend died
And I‘ve been caught in a mind riot/I’m tied within

Though Nixon's single pierces our mind with its sheer ironic temerity, claiming its place as tonight's unkindest cut of all, it was not the only stab of the night: from Schilling's lackluster line (4.2 innings, nine hits, five runs, two gopher balls) to the return of the Red Scare (two blown saves and a seven run, last nail in the coffin eleventh inning), tonight was a blood-stained affair that Red Sox Nation would rather forget. And you know what? I'm happy to do so, to focus on the positive: Manny and Ortiz remain the Castor and Pollux of the 2007 playoffs, the heart of the order continues to rock the party that rocks the body, and tonight Fausto Carmona's deal with the devil looked like it expired in Cleveland sometime last week. Give tonight a pass, and move on to Cleveland ready to get back on track to victory.

I’m luck’s last match struck/In the pouring down wind

Game 152: Pitching His Way Off the Post-Season Roster

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 3, Toronto Blue Jays 4

Words do not describe my level of rage right now. It's ridiculous, over-the-top two-thousand-frickin-four levels of pure, seething, burst your eyeballs, make the vein in your temple throb anger and disgust at the stupid, stupid stupid ending of that game. I've given Eric Gag Me a first chance. And a second one. I've dealt with his melt downs and moved on; I've accepted his explanations about tipped pitches and looked forward to a time when he could be as reliable as any other member of the Red Scare this year. But I'm done. With an AL East lead slipping away like water through our porous palms, with every possible win another struggled step closer to whittling that magic number down to nothing, this travesty of pitching cannot go on. Put Gag Me out on the mound if you must, Tito, but don't let him go out there without backup ready and waiting in the wings, so that when he gets two outs and his control starts to slip and a 2 to 1 lead disappears like so much sand in the wind, you can pull him before he gives up the winning run again.

Then again, I might not be bitching right now if the Sox had a lineup that wasn't one-third utility player and one-third tape and glue. A lineup that could score some runs when the opportunity arose, as it did more than the three runs scored might suggest. I had a metaphor ready for you all, about how the Red Sox are like the Scottish army at Bannockburn at the end of Braveheart (without the kilts and with a few more million dollars on hand): with fading hope, with few weapons, but still fighting like warrior poets (whatever that means). Manny would be our William Wallace, Youkilis would be Hamish...it was going to be great, especially after Tek knocked in the tying run in the fourth and Papi the go-ahead run in the fifth.

Instead, I taste the dregs of the bitter cup, contemplate how that win against New York on Saturday grows daily in importance, and dream of tomorrow, when Boston faces Jesse Litsch, who's gifted 8 runs on 16 hits over the course of two appearances against the Sox, for the finale. I'm begging you guys: score so many runs that it won't matter who we have on the mound. Do it for the sake of the veins in temples. Do it for the sake of Robin's liver. Just win the damn game.

Game 132: Bitter Balance

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 3, New York Yankees 5

Well, that didn't go as well as expected. Five to three isn't exactly an ass-beating, but for all of the run scoring against Chicago this past weekend and New York's worst-in-a-hundred-years road thrashing yesterday, there wasn't exactly a pinstriped collapse in the Bronx tonight. Instead of a blowout, we had a classic Sox/Yankees match - a throwback to a time not too long ago when these two teams were at a much closer parity - a back and forth shoving match that ended as perhaps all of these matches should: with a single swing of the bat.

That's not to say I'm not bummed there's no sweep, no sugar on the top of the revenge the Sox are trying to serve up for last year's five loses of humiliation. I'd love to bury our implacable, time-honored foes so far down the loss column they're playing golf while Detroit or Seattle claims the spoils of the wild card. I'd love to celebrate a World Series victory that doesn't involve a march through New York and the removal of five years of my life in the process. I'd love to have that pitch that went from Matsuzaka's hand to Damon's wheelhouse to the right field porch back and keep the game tied until the Sox could, for the first time in the game, take the lead and hold it with the dominant beast the Red Scare has become.

However, as I said back in April, this ain't the Biggest Rivalry in Sports without a real fight by both sides. Take that pitch back from Damon and the game achieves a balance, a fight to a standstill. Here was a contest of sumo wrestlers, equally matched. Tonight, New York found a way to drop their weight and push at just the right time. A bitter balance, but they won't be so lucky tomorrow night.

Game 90: Seventh, Eighth and Ninth

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 9, Toronto Blue Jays 4

This year's team does seem to have a wonderful effectiveness against their AL East opponents, don't they? In stark contrast to the 2006 campaign, when it felt at the end like they couldn't beat anyone on the East Coast, Boston now stands with a combined 21 and 10 record versus the AL East. As of today, if you arrange the winning percentage of Boston against the four AL East teams in order from top to bottom, it matches the league standings. Thus our team's dominance.

Back in May I gushed happily about Okajima and Papelbon and their ability to lop two innings off the end of a game with their filthy, filthy dominance. More recently, I've found a new thing to love about the Red Scare: Manny Delcarmen. MDC entered this year a question mark, a subpar 2006 behind him, consigned to Triple A until he found the stuff that brought him to the majors for the first time in 2005. I recall reading about a turning point game where he and Craig Hansen gave up a pile of runs; MDC resolved afterwards to fix the problems and move back up. Fortunately for us, he did so with aplomb.

As of today, the Red Sox starting rotation has pitched 551.2 innings over ninety games, which works out to a bit more than 6 innings per start. In a close game - say Red Sox on the over by three runs - the likely scenario has shifted twice over this season in wonderfully unexpected ways. At the start of the year, we'd expect the starter for six, some combination of the Red Scare for the seventh and eighth and then Paps in the ninth. Then Okajima became a dominant force and the first shift occurred: now the Red Scare only needed to cover the seventh inning in tight games.

Today, I'm ready to declare the second shift as past and the seventh inning covered, MDC style. It's been 8.2 innings, seven appearances and almost a month since he's surrendered a run. In that time, opponents have managed a paltry four hits and two walks, while striking out 12 times. Close game, Red Sox on top? Opponents now have six innings to score some runs...if they're lucky.

Monthly Recap: Doom and Gloom in June

June Record: 13-14
Overall Record: 49-30

When you look at this month (just under .500) to the two previous months (well over .600) it’s kinda like flying coach after you’ve been flying first class. There’s nothing WRONG with coach. Coach is fine, even if it is a little crowded and the food sucks and your seat smells like the inside of Manny’s dew rag, you are still going to get to your destination. But after you’ve flown first class… everything else looks like crap. Nothing compares to the luxury.

In the month of June the Red Sox have been flying coach. It’s just lucky for us that every other team in the AL East is flying air freight. How can we play under .500 ball for a month and still have a 10+ game lead? That doesn’t seem right does it? Every time I complain about the Sox poor play to the masses of Yankees fans here in Brooklyn I get evil glares and rabbit punches to the ribs. There really is no comparison. The Sox have been mediocre… everyone else has been horrible. Let me break it down for you.

Catcher: A common trait you will see throughout this listing is how poorly the hitting has been. Strangely, the Capitan has not been as guilty as everyone else that steps up to the plate. Tek has had a very good year when you think about what people were expecting from our quickly aging backstop. He is defiantly going to put up better numbers than he did last year and has already surpassed his halfway totals in runs, RBI and HR from 2006. Is he getting the clutch hits and driving in all the runs he can? No… but then again nobody is.

Corner Infield: Lowell and Youk are both going to the All-Star game. I’d say more on that topic but my mind cannot fully grasp how awesome that is. After two shaky fielding months for Lowell, Mr. Salt and Pepper has regained the leather abilities that we’ve come to know him for. As for Youk, he’s perfect at 1st and has gone from being underrated defensively to nationally recognized for his glove work. At the plate these guys have been the two most consistent as well. Due to a finger injury (that will dog him for the rest of the season) Lowell has begun to slip (still leads the team in RBI) and as I’ve stated before NOBODY is getting the needed clutch hits.

Up the Middle: Dustin Pedroia has turned the corner. This guy looks like the contact hitter that he was supposed to be. I am worse than a fish out of water with all the flopping I’ve done with this guy… but he’s been really great. Then there is that short stop guy. He sucks. Flat out terrible. Batting a head explodingly low .089 for the month of June, Lugo could be the worst every day hitter on any team in the AL. I miss O-cabs and Gonzo and even Rent-a-wreck more and more every day. I say we drop him off in the Vermont woods somewhere and cut the losses.

Outfield: This one is a bit up and down. Coco and Drew have actually picked it up this month. Coco went on a hot streak and then got hurt (figures), while Drew started batting leadoff and to my honest to God jaw dropping shock, started doing MUCH better. Chalk this up to one of Francona’s “this is so crazy it just might work” plans. On the other hand, Manny is still not the same guy that he used to be. His extra base hit totals are low, his RBI (like most Sox hitters) are low and his average still isn’t above .300. I have a feeling he eventually will get really hot again… but it needs to be sooner rather than later.

DH: This is where I really get concerned. Papi is hitting, he’s just not hitting for extra bases. His average is high, his OBP is good, but the long ball just hasn’t been showing up. This has dropped the runs, RBI and maybe even wins for the whole team this year. Papi needs to regain his swing especially against bullpens. The Sox need to get their comeback artist working overtime again so he can continue to make closers wish they hadn’t got out of bed and come to the ball park. That’s what I want when I see Big Papi step in the box.

Bench: What do Mirabelli, Hinske and Willy Mo have in common? An under .230 BA. Besides Cora (who is a marked upgrade from Lugo) the bench has been pretty poor. The new kid Ellsbury hasn’t had enough swings to make an impact yet, but I don’t think he’s going to be tearing the cover off the ball anytime soon. Getting a pinch hit from this crew is rarer than a virgin at the Playboy Mansion.

Bullpen: Another low point this month was the return of Timlin. He’s old, he’s done, it’s over. I love this guy, but it’s time to move on. Donnelly went down with an arm injury (bad), Joel is gone with an ankle sprain (kinda good) and MDC is back with the big club (pretty damn good). Oki has been fantastic as ever and is trying to get his ERA down to a quantum singularity while pitching in every single game and Kyle Snyder has been solid in long relief. Even when losing, the pen has been nowhere near the “Red Scare” we’d thought they’d be.

Closer: Papelbon got his second All-Star invite, and not for no reason. This guy is still nails and sandpaper covered in carpet tacks. You get that? 9th inning comes around and it’s gonna get rough for the other team.

Starting Pitching: It’s been as good as before with one exception. After a near no hitter, Schilling had been ineffective and the DL’ed with arm issues. This was pretty much as expected because of how old he is, but I just wish we got a few more games out of Curt before he went down. He should be back after the All-Star break. Beckett, Wakefeild, Dice-K and even Tavarez have all pitched amazingly well, but they haven’t got a lick of run support to give them the ‘W’ they deserve. Surprisingly, Schillings replacement was not Jon Lester but Kason Gabbard. Gabbo has had one good and one bad outing and it remains to be seen if he is going to stick around or be replaced by Lester when the coaches feel he’s at 100%.

Low Point: I’m not even sure. Getting beat by the Yanks in the beginning of the month wasn’t very fun, but I might just call the sweep we took at the hands of Seattle the worst stretch. The Sox can’t win in that park and it looks like they don’t even try.

High Point: This would have to be Schillings 1-0 complete game victory and one hitter. Curt was one out away when Shannon Stewart knocked a single past the infield to break up the no-no. Even without the bats the Sox have managed to win games with the fantastic pitching. It’s a good sign that even when a team is struggling they still manage to capitalize on their strengths and find ways to win. I just hope July has more of these “strengths” than June did.

Game 77: What a &%#!ing Waste

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 1, Seattle Mariners 2

Eight innings of high-quality dominance from Matsuzaka and no one could string together enough hits to score one measly additional run? I would have happily taken a blow-out on Tuesday in exchange for more run support yesterday; I could have gone to bed earlier one night and had the satisfaction of seeing at least one win in the deadly confines of Safeco. Instead, this pile of BS: eleven men left on base, six men stranded in scoring position and not a single run knocked in without surrendering an out. Eleven innings of excellent pitching, ending on a walk and a double and Ichiro's speedy legs, the end of the best road record in the MLB and a sweep to boot...hell, it makes me want to boot.

What's even worse is that, like the fight-loving gentleman Robin and I met at the Hairy Monk a couple of years ago, the Red Sox brought this loss upon themselves: two straight nights of starting pitcher weakness, culminating in complete bullpen drain that couldn't keep things scoreless long enough for the offense to pull the stick out and do some damage. It's a little incongruous: the Sox possess (by half a game) the best record in baseball and Seattle...well, they're doing pretty well this year, but they wouldn't lead a division in the NL, let alone pull out the domination switch. For Boston to win at least one game a series, even on the road, doesn't seem like a complete impossibility.

Being a curious, scientifically-minded person, I decided to see if there's any sort of historical basis for this level of suckitude. As it turns out, it's been a particularly lopsided century for Boston/Seattle matchups: Boston has won the season series twice (2003 and 2004), tied it once (2005) and lost every other year. Team ERA during those years: except for two years, consistently above 4.00. When Boston plays Safeco (six games a year, half the time - the scheduling gods are not kind), the numbers get even worse: one tie (2005 again) and six losses. With all of this consistent butt-kicking, I think it's time to paraphrase Pedro: "They beat [us]. They're that good right now. They're that hot. [We] just tip [our] hat[s] and call the [Mariners our] daddy." I just hope the Sox find a way to turn the tables next year.

Game 76: Hail to the King, Baby

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 7, Seattle Mariners 8

Now I remember why having a decent bullpen is important: it keeps games from seesawing back and forth, like last night's toothless wonder. Sure, the Sox got to King Felix and his ineffective fastball early and often, keeping Boston in the game with six runs over the first six innings, but every time the Sox would establish a lead - or tie the game - Seattle had an offensive answer that kept this frustrating game going tit-for-tat far too late into the night.

Hernandez may have been nowhere near the dominating powerhouse he was on his last outing against Boston on April 11, but (once again) he still managed to outpitch Boston's starter, as the once glorified and exalted Gabbo...well, not to put to fine a point on it, but he sucked. Long and hard, with enough walks to turn the base paths into a treadmill for Mariners. Lord knows where the kid's command went, but it wasn't with him last night. However, according to the Herald, Gabbo will get another shot to prove himself again next week - Tito is not going to use the off day on Thursday to rejigger the rotation to cover for Schilling's second missed start. Having a ten game lead on the competition does give you the opportunity to experiment, I guess...

Speaking of Tito, what was up with his decision to leave MDC in for more than an inning last night? I know we're a bit short on relievers at the moment - a problem compounded by Joel Pineiro twisting his ankle in one of the more awkward ways possible - but MDC ain't no Kyle Snyder and his presence on the mound in the fifth made the bullpen look very, very thin. I'm a little surprised the Red Sox haven't called up another reliever to compensate, really - looking at the Sox pitching numbers against Seattle this year, poor pitching performance should now be the expectation, not the exception.