Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Bodies Everywhere

After Robin's post yesterday on the bullpen aftermath, I was curious as to how well the Red Scare really did this spring, so I pulled some numbers from the list of Spring Training stats MLB had hidden on its team sites like a rare and precious jewel and did some comparisons. My hypothesis going into the project was that the Red Scare is more a collection of available bodies meant to get between the starter and the end of the game/Jonathan Papelbon than something fierce, like Scot Shields or the bringers of death they have in Minnesota. And yes, I know most bullpens are just collections of inferior arms, but with the signings in the off-season and the number of young pitchers still in camp until this week, I'm seeing a bullpen that comes closer to emulating Zapp Branigan's military strategy than acting as a fearsome stopping force.

To make my list, I took everyone who pitched an inning at the major league level for the Sox this spring, took out anyone who had started a game (except Papelbon) as a starter or potential starter, added Tavarez as starter number five and removed Papelbon because he's not a middle reliever. A couple of interesting data points jumped out at me:
  • The twelve relievers at the major league camp converted three out of eleven save chances this spring. Saves may be the most arbitrary statistic in baseball, but it does mean most of these guys couldn't bring the goods in a close-and-late situation. Thank God for Paps.
  • I averaged the numbers from all twelve pitchers to get a sense of the average Red Sox bullpen pitcher this spring. This composite pitcher, in 8.3 innings, had a WHIP of 1.44 (yes, that's right: almost a base runner and half for every inning out on the mound). Of those 12 or so base runners, he allowed 4.3 to make it around the bases to score, including lucky guy with a round trip ticket.
Conclusion: even though we have the cream of this crop pitching at the major league level come Opening Day, the Red Scare's most impressive feature is its size: a whole of lot depth to step in if the first guys up can't get the job done. I think we may be looking at an Oakland A's-style job, where the team fields enough players to get through the first half of the season with some respectability, then drops the dead weight at the Trade Deadline and brings up fresh arms for a drive to the playoffs. I see a lot of close contests in our future...