Beckett May Need A Baseball Shrink

The first three innings for Josh Beckett at Fenway last night were the best three innings I have seen him pitch this season. His fastball was crisp, his cutter had late life and his curveball had crazy 12 to 6 tilt. The aggressive Texan had 6 strikeouts through 3 innings against some very good hitters in the Yankees.

One of the biggest issues he has had this season is with his secondary pitches, particularly his curveball. When it does not have the big vertical hook, it flattens out in the middle of the plate and becomes a 77 MPH batting-practice spinner. I actually thought that pitch was mostly working last night (as evidenced by nice ratio of swing and miss strikes), but a few times (as in the Swisher 3-run homer), it simply disappeared. Despite how poorly this game ended up for him, seeing that curveball dive to the dirt against lefties is encouraging. Remember, he did have 8 strikeouts last night (matching his season high).

The question is, can Beckett put aside all the negativity and bad feelings he has about himself and simply pitch to his ability? In seven starts, he has one win. He should have 3. Two of his three starts were lost by the bullpen. The other four starts, well, they have been horrid.

Like Buchholz with runners on base, Beckett seems to lose some of his trust and confidence and tries to overcompensate by throwing his fastball harder. Beckett has always been an emotional pitcher, and when he is on, he is able to harness it effectively without panic.

Right now, Beckett is in panic mode.

His frustration with not making a few pitches got kind of ugly last night when he pegged Derek Jeter in the back with the bases loaded. That one was obvious. Many people will argue that he tried to hit Cano, but I don't buy it. He had been throwing inside on almost everyone last night, and the cutter to Cano missed and hit him on the knee. Who goes after a guy at the knee? It was a fluke.

He seemed upset by crossing up Varitek with a fastball that hit Tek in that upper shoulder region where there is little protection (when Tek actually called for a curve ball). He was upset at giving up hits, walking a few guys. The whole thing got out of hand quickly with him. I will not be surprised when one of the Yankees pitchers hits Pedroia or Youkilis or Drew in this series. Expect it. It will happen.

As much as I like Francona, my biggest gripe for years has been how long a leash he gives his starters when they are obviously struggling and need to be taken out. Beckett needed to be bailed out after hitting Jeter. He should have been reprimanded privately for intentionally taking his frustration out by giving up runs. If a base open, that is one thing. But with the bases loaded? Unacceptable. Throwing in the towel is unacceptable.

Luckily, this hasn't bitten Francona when it really matters all that much (no Grady Little moment in the playoffs or World Series--maybe Masterson in the playoffs against the Rays in 2008).  But when it comes to Josh Beckett, he may need to revisit his policy on trying to give his "ace" confidence.

Beckett is not an ace right now, and he may need a little time off to figure his mental stuff out. His pitching stuff is not far from being there. He needs to trust that he has it and can get out of jams. Right now, it's pretty obvious he is unable to handle much pressure. It's time to address it head on.

What's the over/under on Beckett winding up on the DL?

[Image by Jeff Valois via Flickr CC 3.0]

Now is the Time

The Sox did it. They buckled down, put the disgraceful Baltimore series behind them, and came back home to sweep the Angels, proving they can still beat up on middling teams when given the chance. The team's battling splits in the last seven days are miles above their 2010 totals: compare .335/.419/.619 (Batting Average/On Base Percentage/Slugging Percentage) to .275/.351/.467, or the tOPS+ of 152 to the season's total tOPS+ of a perfectly average 100. Almost a third of the 40 home runs the team has hit this season have been hit since last Thursday. They're only striking out 18 percent of the time instead of 19 percent, and on and on.

Point is, the Sox are wicked hot with the bats right now and they have the chance to make the Yankees look bad in this coming series, starting with Phil Hughes and his obscenely low ERA. A series win this weekend would be the next step in rebuilding after the craptastic start to this season and demonstrate that Boston actually has the capability to outplay the big teams and make this Summer one of interesting possibilities in what could be a three-way competition for the AL East crown. A series win would be marvelous...

...but that would ignore the iffy pitching situation. Two of the games against Los Angeles were shutdowns where the Sox held the Angels to one run, but two of them were slugging matches where a win came from taking advantage of an LA pitching staff that's even weaker than the one in Boston. The Sox aren't going to get those kind of breaks this weekend without some extraordinary luck, so the pitching needs to step up the way the bats have and keep the Yankees off the bases. Now's the time to make an impact.

The Last Night of Spring Training

Anyone else feel that last night's slugging match was the last real Spring Training game and we won't start counting towards the standings until the Sox and Yanks play again tomorrow night? The pitching was generally wretched, the umpiring at first base so bad that I thought we were watching the 2009 playoffs all over again, and that ugly double whatever it was that allowed a New York run to score while the ball was in a player's glove in the infield gave the lie to the vacuum-like defense supposedly under Boston's command. With that supposedly deficient Red Sox offense, I might be forgiven for thinking the night was sunk after the Yankees pulled ahead in the fourth.

Of course, led by Mr. First-Hometown-Triple-Since-1999, the offense beat expectations and fought back twice, giving Youkilis the hero status and a prophet-like status thanks to his Spring Training utterance:

“Hey guys,’’ he shouted out to his teammates that February morning. “Can we score a bunch of runs on Opening Night so we don’t have to hear about this anymore?’’

Clearly the man knows things. We should all listen to him, no matter how crazy he sounds:

Does a Tougher Schedule Mean No October Baseball?

Regardless of how this game turns out, it's seems fairly safe to say that as sure as at least one person behind home plate will be waving like an idiot at the camera while talking on their cell phone, the Yankees will end up winning the AL East. I've come to terms with this idea, while blessing the idea of the Wild Card and its power to salvage the season. We still have a shot at the final glory, you see, so it's easier to wave goodbye, however wistfully, to one of the prizes to be obtained along the way.

While contemplating this state of affairs, I wondered if anyone had ever done a statistical study about the effect of the difficulty of the schedule on the likelihood of making the post-season. For example, if the Red Sox have a schedule where tough items like a road trip against New York followed by a swing out West are the norm, are they less likely to win the AL East crown or the Wild Card? Or, because each team plays every other team in their league a certain number of times, are the tough moments games by the easier ones?

Were I to do such a study, I'd probably use each team's Pythagorean for the year: after all, the idea is to determine how "tough" each team is to face, and a measurement of their predicted winning percentage as determined by runs allowed and scored seems like a good measurement. After that, I'd take all of the available data and start looking for patterns to see whether or not I could determine what the minimum winning percentage would be to define a "tough" team. From there, I could make some judgments about the layout of a tougher schedule and see where each team finished.

The Boston Red Sox Day Off

In honor of the late, great John Hughes: "Billy Traber, you're my hero." As much as yesterday was bad piled on terrible piled on really effing craptastic, at least we don't have to go into tonight with a devastated bullpen.

Of course, that may not matter so much, because winning the game of baseball requires scoring runs, and right now, that does not seem to be Boston's specialty. They can get men on base - Chamberlain gave up seven walks, for crying out loud, and didn't have a 1-2-3 inning all night - but scoring them seems to be another matter. To put it another way, the telling numbers for the Boston offense last night were not the eight hits, twelve walks (twelve!), or six runs, but the fifteen men left on base and the .143 (3 for 21) batting average with runners in scoring position. In the end, I had to turn the game off before it was over, because as it turns out, the only thing more frustrating than watching your team get shut down by superior pitching is to watch them squander scoring opportunities like a compulsive gambler burning through his kid's college fund.

As for Smoltz, I'm sympathetic to the pleas for his removal from the rotation, but who, exactly, is going to pitch in his place? The only non-used starter on the 40 man roster who seems remotely qualified is Michael Bowden, who's pitching well in Pawtucket, but isn't exactly tearing things up in a way that suggests he'd be an instant hit in the majors. Paul Byrd seems a more likely successor, but 38-year-old pitchers who haven't thrown all year can't just dive right into professional competition. By trading away Masterson and relying on Smoltz to pull through, the Sox have made their bed - let's just hope that if that bed is as full of broken glass as it seems, it doesn't cut us too much.

Triumph of the Yankee Killer

They had their 2003 World Series-winning veteran pitcher. We had our 2003 World Series-winning veteran pitcher. They had their monster line up, their Alex Rodriguez with his .505 slugging percentage that's not only bolstered their line up, but given the previously lacklustre Mark Teixeira the shot in the arm needed for the Yankees to claw their way into first. We had Jason Bay, whose .524/.655/1.143 line in 21 at-bats when facing pinstriped pitching has made him the Yankee Killer the Sox need to lead the charge. The stage seemed set for a showdown of epic proportions.

Oh, and we also had Big Papi.

Because while their Marlins veteran looked like he needed a GPS to find the strike zone and our Marlins veteran was taking a one hitter through six before handing things off to the Red Scare, the Yankees announcing crew was talking about the fall of David Ortiz. 'Was his batspeed down,' they wondered? 'Terry Francona said he didn't think so,' they announced, but they thought anything could be possible. There were some valid questions about when he was swinging, but the conclusion seemed to be that David Ortiz would no longer be the threat to the Yankees he had been in the past and - let's be completely honest here - he should probably consider throwing in the towel.

And that's when Burnett, who had been trying to establish Ortiz on the upper portions of the outside of the plate, came back into the heart of the zone with a 2-2 fastball. Round came the classic swing and only the previous two months' frustration put any question on what was a no-doubt home run to deepest center. Out it sailed into the night, silencing the critics (and Yankee victory hopes) for one more night even as the fans begged for a curtain call from their hero. Let me tell you: the rest of the game might have been a bit dull, but that one piece of schadenfreude was absolutely delicious.

Riding That Gravy Train Through The Bronx

Glad to see that Yankee Stadium has become a stopover point to recover from a Rays-given pounding. Not that four runs is something to sneeze at, but it doesn't look so bad in comparison with six runs...or the buckets of relief the Yankees used in giving them up. I don't feel like I'm being too cocky either, because Joba's starting tonight and I'm guessing that he's going to be a bit distracted.

Recession Pricing: Red Sox Get It, Yankees Do Not

As the Projo Sox Blog points out, Peter Gammons published a piece today comparing dollars spent on pitching by the Red Sox and Yankees this offseason. The relevant paragraph that really warms the cockles:

So as the Red Sox prepare to sign Lester for five years and $30 million, they will pay Beckett, Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, John Smoltz, Brad Penny and Clay Buchholz less than $36 million this season. Compare that figure with what the New York Yankees are paying two of their pitchers. If you include two $3 million bonuses CC Sabathia will receive during the 2009 season, Sabathia and A.J. Burnett will make $36.5 million. Boston has 2009 obligations to Beckett, Lester and Matsuzaka for $21 million.

What makes this comparison even better? I'd take Beckett, Lester, and Matsuzaka (let alone the other guys on this list) over Sabathia and Burnett (particularly Burnett) any day of the week.

Salary Cap or Payroll Zone

The Red Sox have come out in favor of a salary cap of sorts, although the lack of details available - particularly whether or not the program would be a standard salary cap, a payroll zone (where there would be both minimums and maximums on team salary), or something else entirely - makes me wonder about the intention of this announcement.

On the one hand, I can see why the Red Sox would want a cap: they have a reputation for winning and for a devoted fanbase, making them more likely to win the favor of players on the free agent market and giving Boston a better pick of available talent. Coupling that attractiveness with a cap - and the dollars to spend up to that salary limit - eliminates the possibility of losing a player to a higher salary bid, increasing the likelihood that a Mark Teixeira ends up making Fenway his home.

On the other hand, this announcement could just be a ploy: get in a cheap shot at the Yankees, throw in another - with the payroll zone comment - at the Rays, make the ownertship look like it cares for the plight of the common man without having to worry that a cap - which would have to meet the approval of the unsympathetic players union - would become a reality. Sounds like a win for the Red Sox no matter what the intentions.

How Much Do You Love This Picture?

Do they have those grim looks on their faces because they're concentrating on the press conference, or because they're sitting in judgment on A-Rod's lack of True Yankeeness? "You! You've never won a ring! Not once!"

We're Gonna Win!

At least Baseball Prospectus says so. And damned if they didn't call how terrible the Mariners were going to be last year. Anyway, the projections say we're supposed to beat out the Yankees by a game in the win column, setting up a playoffs where we host Oakland for the division series while the Wild Card-winning Yankees play the Indians in Cleveland. Expect 2009 to be another year when the AL East proves its superiority to the rest of baseball: at 92 and 70, the third-place Rays would three other divisions and come in second in the other two.

Heck, much like the Athletics, I think we should just call the season now.

Ruh-Roh...Steroids are Back

Had a dream last night that I was arguing with two Yankees fans about the merits of our respective teams in the upcoming season. I don't remember who won, and I suspect the entire thing was inspired by the A-Rod took steroids firestorm yesterday - good job on his part learning from the mistakes of others with that apology, by the way - but either way, it's a sure sign that baseball is on the brain and only weeks away. And that, my friends, is a happy thing.

I was a little irritated with the title of Mike McDermott's post for ProJo on the steroid culture in baseball - I think fans are as much to blame for the steroid-fueled long ball decade as anyone else because we turned a blind eye, too - but he redeems himself a bit at the end by throwing his thesis out the window and admitting to fan guilt, too. I think in the information-rich age we've developed, particularly in the last eight or nine years, when thousands of people can write up their speculations in blogs like this one and millions more can read them and discuss them in comments, forums, and the like, saying that we not only missed the taint of steroids in our favorite sport but that our supposed ignorance absolves us from guilt is naive at best. Much like housing bubble and the US consumer's free ways with credit, the steroid era was like a huge party replete with strippers, coke, and high-class booze: we might have had a good time while it lasted, but now it's 11 AM the next morning, there's broken furniture in the pool and vomit in the washing machine and we've all - players, owners, media, and fans - got a king-sized hangover. Let's just get on with cleaning up the mess.

Ha. He Said "A-Fraud"

I guess The Dugout was right after all:

"The Yankee Years" reveals that Rodriguez was called "A-Fraud" by his teammates and the star slugger developed an obsession with shortstop Derek Jeter, the New York Post and the Daily News reported Sunday.
- Boston.com

Any guess on the over/under of the "A-Fraud" chants lighting up Fenway when the Yankees next come to town?

Mark Teixeira's True Colors: A Continuing Saga

Mark Teixeira on becoming a Yankee this off-season:

"In the back of my mind, the Yankees were always the top"

"My wife and I decided two weeks before Christmas the Yankees are where we want to be."

"I would wear a Yankees hat. Back in the '80s and early '90s, that wasn't a safe thing to do in Baltimore."

"Once it really hit me that I was going to be a Yankee, it was just pure joy. It hit me: the excitement of being a Yankee...I can be a Yankee? There's nothing better."

I could give him the benefit of the doubt and say he's just pandering to his new fan base, but even if he is, so what? Those actions would make him a mercenary at best, and if he really did want to go to New York all along, he's set himself up to be the perfect villain for 2009. Either way, I'm glad he's not playing in Boston.

Conspiracy Theory of the Day

Here's a fun conspiracy theory for you: you know those Rays fans who started showing up during the playoffs, filling the seats of a stadium that had locked whole sections during the year? What if they aren't Rays fan at all? What if they're Yankee fans (because we know Florida is full of both Yankee and Red Sox adherents), reveling in the chance to stick it to their rivals with some vicarious cheering? Something to chew over as we wait for the game to start.

Yankee Stadium: A Red Sox Requiem

I had the good fortune to visit the Yankee Stadium for the final game the Red Sox will play in those hallowed halls. It was a wonderful day thanks to Yankee Mike’s generosity and the good folks at the Yankee Stadium club buffet (I think I am still full), but it didn’t have the ending I would have preferred. Oki left a ball up in the zone to Giambi and he sent it on a 2 run 420ft trip. The game was down hill from there.

But even more interesting than the 3-2 loss (that was ALL THE BULLPEN’S FAULT) was the atmosphere in the park. I know it was a day game and I know it was the 3rd game of a series… but WOW what a difference. This is the first time I have ever visited the stadium when the Yankees were out of the running for the playoffs (oh and before anyone says anything… they ARE out of it. It’s over. Sox won 2 of 3 and made it look easy. Sorry pals) and I have never seen so many Sox fans cheering openly in hostile territory. What a disappointing way to have such a storied rivalry end in one of the places it was made famous. A third place team beats the team that is 6 games ahead of them. Not epic at all.

As a Sox fan, there is really only one thing I can think about the Yankee’s situation:

It’s hilarious.

Call me bitter, but the Yankees not making the playoffs and being unable to give the blue toilet a proper October goodbye is just the funniest thing to me. Kinda like a big “haha who cares what you did 60 years ago… you suck now!!” but like for 3 months. It’s the gift that keeps on giving.

But I digress. It was a good day, a great series and a mediocre sendoff for a place I have loved to hate.

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 7, New York Yankees 3

The pinstripe panic will begin...now.

Manny Versus the Knights of the Keyboard

Glad to see my prediction about slug fests in Boston came true, even if we lost one of them. Oh, and the close loss, too. It's like I'm a goddamn psychic or something.

But losing two out of three to the Yankees at home isn't important; beating on Manny Ramirez is! Red Sox sports pages are full of stories today adding their own twist to Manny's comments about his dissatisfaction with the supposedly adversarial relationship between himself and the owners of his contract, from Ken Davidoff's shrugs ("they've done this dance many times before") to Sean McAdam's full-blown blockbuster trade exploration (Manny for Pat Burrell sounds interesting, but only because Burrell's a rental having a career year) to Dan Shaughnessy's triumphant crowing. No doubt there's some meat to this story - I certainly don't deny that Manny said what he said - but what I find fascinating (and more than a bit repugnant) is how quickly these situations turn into a firestorm of ugly, escalating geometrically like the payload of a nuclear weapon. It's always the same, too: Manny says something, the press reacts, Manny reacts, the press reacts and all of the sudden it's World War III, sports writers want Manny's head on a pole (and they write like everyone else does, too) and Manny wants to play for a team where the local columnists have better things to do with their time than write scathing polemics.

Here's the real mindblower though: with the exception of last year (when we all rightly focused our ire on Eric Gagne and his string of disasters), Manny and the sports press have done this little dance every year since 2003. Every year the problem resolves itself, Manny goes back to hitting, the dogs go back to their kennels, and we wonder whether or not we'll have to deal with this same BS the next year, because we all know full well that Manny's a linchpin in the offense. You'd think by now that both sides would have learned enough self control to stop sniping at each other and keep these escalations from happening in the first place. Of course, that assumes two things: that Manny has the foresight to keep his mouth shut and that writers will stop waving their red capes at every possible opportunity. Somehow, I think that kind of self control is something neither side is willing to acquire.

Game 104: The Camel's Back

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 0, New York Yankees 1

That's it. We're done. Stick a fork in us; we're sick of this crap: losing close games, bitching about the bullpen, bitching about the offense, close games ending on a strikeout looking or a double play or whatever crap our team decides to throw up that night. We're tired of having games be seasons, of having a freak out over every loss and a far too self congratulatory win. We're tired of Manny's knees, Papi's wrists, Youkilis' theatrics (that's a lie: we're never tired of Youkilis' theatrics), Varitek's terrible slump, Beckett's 9 and 7 record that's a couple lucky breaks away from being 14 and 2, Wakefield's lack of run support (now in its sixth year!), and all of the other grief that comes with the "diehard Red Sox fan" label. And we're sick of having twenty regular readers after four plus years of writing this blog.

But these are just excuses. The love is still there; the desire burns fresh in our souls like Fenway franks on a grill (they boil those franks, don't they?) on Lansdowne street. To be brutally honest: there's so much we're glossing over because we're dissecting Buchholz's poor location and Ellsbury's wild swings. So here's what we're going to do: we're not quitting, so you can untie that noose and get down off that chair: your lifeline is still here. Instead, we'll be recapping series, not games. We'll be writing posts on things like Pedroia's height, random stupid statistics, and newsworthy dramatic garbage. We're gonna have fun, god dammit. So you'll be seeing a new format round here, and we think you're going to enjoy it. In fact, to quote Robin's impression of Terry Francona: "he's a good kid. You're gonna like him. As a matter of fact, he's a good person. I like to have him on my team, I like to have him in the clubhouse, and that's somethin' special. That's not somethin' you see every day."

So here comes the new boss, same as the old boss. Again. But first, we've got a wedding to attend. Eric and Petra, congratulations (about 12 hours early). We love ya, and wish you the best. We'll be back with the new version of fun on Monday. GO SOX!!!

Game 103: Bullpen as a Sweeping Brush

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 6, Seattle Mariners 3

I do love extra-innings victories. Particularly ones with authority, where the Sox score multiple runs and put together a real inning - men on base, multiple hits, maybe a walk or two - making something to really drag out the pain so the opponent doesn't just feel bad for losing, they feel terrible. I'm a little heartless that way. Anyway, our revenge against Seattle is complete, Boston's winning percentage is above .500 at Safeco for the year for the first time since dinosaurs roamed the earth, and the Sox can all go traipsing back to Boston to prepare for this weekend's series. Hurrah.

I'm not such a fan of using the entire bullpen (or about two thirds of the bullpen, anyway) to gain this victory, but I can't complain too loudly on any count: we won, we swept, we returned with our heads held high, and we can hope that the equation X + Y != Z, where X is Beckett pitching after a complete game, Y is a well-used pen coming off a cross-country flight, and Z is a pitching disaster. We might also want to factor in the red hot Yankees and their propensity for chewing up pitching on a normal day, and maybe have a bit of a freak out. I'd prefer to follow the example set by the pre-Fenway red hot Twins, who left with their tails between their legs and have been a .500 team ever since, but we all know that's wishful thinking: there will be a slug fest in here somewhere, and probably a close loss, too. We really have no right to expect anything less.