The Mets Have a Much Better Bullpen Than the Red Sox

Don't tell me you cannot compare bullpens in the National League to the American. Sure, there is the the DH in the AL, and there is that virtually-automatic out with the pitcher in the NL, so in theory it should be harder for the AL and the NL would dominate the bullpen rankings. Not so fast.

Half of the top 10 bullpens by ERA in the entire major leagues are from the AL.

That's right. AL pens have the second (Twins), fifth (Tampa Bay), sixth (Rangers), eighth (Yankees) and tenth (White Sox) BEST earned run averages in all of baseball and they are all playoff-contending teams.

The Boston Red Sox rank 20 out of 30 teams in the majors with a bullpen ERA of 4.36. Yup, they are down with the Mariners, Indians, Orioles, Angels and Royals--not to mention all of the worst teams in the NL like the Pirates, Astros, Brewers, and Diamondbacks.

If there is one thing that is KILLING me this year it's the total lack of getting new, effective pitching in that bullpen. Sure, August waivers are not done yet, but in the meantime the hopes of catching the Rays for the Wild Card spot keep fading--slowly--like a deadly bacteria eating at the core of my being.

Dice K keeps the offense in the game yesterday but is replaced by Manny Delcarmen who serves up a fat, first-pitch meatball to Michael Young for the 3-run shot to left center. Ugh. As if it wasn't enough to have to watch Ellsbury go back on the DL for the third freakin' time on Friday on a play at first base!


I'm not even really talking about Bard or Papelbon here (I'm willing to ignore the Toronto meltdown right now because the flukes will happen). I know they have the talent to get outs. It's the rest of these guys that are killing me. What is it going to take for Theo to make a freaking move with this pen? If run prevention is so damn important, how can you begin to compete with all the playoff contending teams in the AL without some legitimate 6th and 7th inning help?

Out of the 14 teams in the AL, the Red Sox rank 9th... Ugh. It's unreal. It's not easy catching the pitching of this division, I get it. But let's be clear, management is not recognizing its problem with its employees. Take action during the season...

I didn't want to pick on the Mets, but hey, it's at least something positive coming out of Flushing. They rank eleventh with an ERA of 3.77. Omar Minaya is better than Theo with his bullpen signings and picks.

Now that stings.

Expect Theo To Make a Relief Move

Recent history with Theo (as Gordon Edes of ESPN deftly points out) tells us he will do everything he can to get a quality reliever either at the deadline or during the August waiver period. Edes gives a very nice timeline back to 2003 of all the key relief pitching moves Epstein has made in his Sox tenure--many that were crucial pieces of playoff and World Series-winning teams--and moves that opened up roster spots for now-legends of Red Sox lore.

Edes reminded me of the Scott Williamson trade who had an amazing run in the playoffs in 2003 (and I'm still not sure why Grady Little didn't use him in place of Pedro in the ALCS game 7). He also reminded me of the Shea Hillenbrand trade to the D-backs that allowed David Ortiz to get more playing time. Don't forget about Myers in 2004 or Bradford in 2005 or Billy Wagner last year.

The problem is the team could have used one right before the West coast trip. The pen has a collective ERA of something like 4.44 (I read somewhere) and is the fourth worst in the league. You can't get to the playoffs with those kind of numbers.

With knowledge of how deeply invested the Sox are in starting pitching, the relief pitching has to be a real target. Can Theo stay that patient as close games are consistently being lost in the 8th and 9th innings? That debacle on Sunday with Oki and the pen was very troubling.

Some rumors are that Sox are courting Scott Downs of Toronto heavily (as are the Yankees). 

My fears about this road trip are almost completely true. Some good starting pitching has been there, but not for the bullpen. At least V-Mart and Hermida are back. Buccholz pitched very nice last night, getting out of jams and going pretty deep with only one early home run given up.

Ellsbury played in the Gulf league and is due back with the team next week. Hopefully guys forget all the BS with where he rehabbed and welcome him back.

Still, even with the win lat night, the Yanks and Rays also won (Garza, the bastard, threw a no-hitter), so they're still 8 games back. Not 9 games back, but too damn close.

Lackey takes the hill tonight in his former home stadium in Anaheim. Should be a bit surreal for him--especially after he drills one of his former teammates in retaliation of a Fernando Rodney fastball in Beltre's back after Ortiz hit a 2-run homer last night off him. The umpire was way too quick to warn benches last night and Tito could visibly be seen saying either to Rodney or the umpire (probably both) "F U C K You!"

That was awesome.

I am always leery of guys who go back to their old stadiums, so I don't expect much from Lackey tonight. He'll probably get a mix of cheers and boos, though since it's Anaheim, he's bound to have a strong Red Sox following. I've been to that place many times and the Sox fans come out of the woodwork in the OC for that series.

Time for tortillas as frisbees and loud chants of "Let's go Red Sox!" and, of course, death to the rally monkey.

You Got Your Offense In My Defense! Sox Bats Defy 'Bridge Year' BS

The Red Sox are leading THE MAJORS or are right behind the leader in plethora of offensive categories  right now. Yeh, you heard me right: The entire major league.

Don't believe me? Take a look at the numbahs:

• #1 in Hits with 689 (Number 2? The Kansas City Royals; I know, it's totally crazy)
• #1 in Doubles with 174
• #1 in RBI with 373
• #1 in Runs with 390
• #1 in Total Bases with 1158
• #2 in Average at .278 (Number 1? The Kansas City Royals at .279)
• #2 in Home runs with 93 (Number 1 is still the Blue Jays)
• #2 in On-Base Percentage at .353 (A tie with the Braves of Hotlanta; That team from the Bronx leads at .359)
• #3 in Walks with 277 (behind that team from the Bronx and the Braves of Hotlanta)

The team who plays on Yawkey Way are middle of the pack in one category: Strike Outs. They currently rank 17th which is fairly decent. At the bottom of that list are the Chicago White Sox and, once again, the Kansas City Royals.

If only the Royals had a few more decent starters... Speaking of Kansas City, they could be a team the Red Sox try to bargain with for a trade. Gordon Edes of ESPN started dropping some names recently and he mentioned Scot Podsednik as a target for Theo. He hits, he steals bases and he runs the bases well... I have some other ideas on potential targets, but more on that later.

Despite all this offense, the Red Sox have to be on the market for an impact outfielder with the injuries to Ellsbury, Cameron, Hermida and now, Drew. Drew is supposed to play tonight in Colorado, but I will not be surprised if Tito gives him more time off to let that hamstring calm down. Luckily, he did not land on the DL, but you'd be foolish to rule that out with Stephen's older, richer brother.

While the team-offensive numbers have been solid, the overall offensive contributions from outfielders are tenuous aside from Drew. Sure, there have been great rookie moments from McDonald and Nava, and some nice lefty at bats from Hermida (who is hurt), but let's be clear: We cannot expect these triple-a guys (and an inconsistent Bill Hall, who is really a back-up infielder) to go the rest of the season. In an effort to reach the playoffs, the Red Sox need another Ellsbury-type player who can get on base consistently, be a real base-stealing threat and generally be a nuisance to pitchers.

Looking at the outfield, Edes recently examined the offensive state of these players:

Relying on patchwork combinations that have featured McDonald, Jeremy Hermida and Bill Hall, with a cameo appearance by rookie Josh Reddick and now the latest import from Pawtucket, Nava, the Sox outfield collectively ranks next to last in the league in hitting (.257), 12th in OBP (.329), seventh in slugging (.421) and fifth in home runs (22).

And now I digress on Mike Cameron... I was doing a little research on contracts and still cannot believe Theo gave him over $7 million dollars. Yeh, he can play the outfield, but you had to know his age was a bit of a liability. Considering the abdominal injury and his lack of everyday status at present, perhaps now is the time to package him up with someone from the minor leagues and let him and his lousy batting average, lack of power and ZERO stolen bases go elsewhere.

[Image by therob006 via Flickr CC 3.0]

Things Begin to Look Up

Don't look now, but the Sox have finally started to click since I wrote that half-facetious post last Wednesday, beating the Twins twice at Fenway before going back on the road to take two of three from Philly and the first of three from scary-good Tampa Bay. Over those six games the offense has remained efficient if not overwhelmingly scary, converting about 42% of the baserunners into runs while hitting .261/.315/.438 and generally beating their opponents by four or five runs. The pitching has (re)turned into something special, with a marvelous 2.04 ERA and 0.94 WHIP against three teams that lead their respective divisions. For the past week, at least, it's been less about struggling to remain a middling team and proving that the 2010 Sox really can run with the big dogs.

There are individual achievements to celebrate, too. Ellsbury is back in the line up after an absence of about a month and a half, though his OPS of .133 over his first 15 plate appearances indicates he's got some work to do before his stroke reappears. Big Papi has reached base safely in his past nine games and is hitting .408 with 5 home runs and an OPS of 1.363; over the same time period, Kevin Youkilis has five home runs of his own and an OPS of 1.485. I got all kinds of excited seeing them hit back to back last night, just imagining the possibilities. The team is nowhere near close to being able to call things safe - not with the Rays so far ahead, and not with Toronto on a surge of their own - but for the first time since early April these Red Sox feel like a real team.

Seeds of Sox Strengths Starting to Sprout

Pitching. Defense. Timely hitting. It's starting to sizzle a bit at Fenway in the way Theo and crew drew it up.

It's been doom and gloom in the baseball column of Sportstown, USA, but the last four games have me feeling a whole lot better than last weekend's meltdown at Camden Yards.

Last weekend's series sweep by B-more was a crying shame. Dice K had it working for four innings in his debut, but then, it became batting practice... It was awful to watch an already-dejected Wakefield enter from the bullpen only to let the O's think they were the Rays. Poor Wake. He may end up back in the rotation if Matsuzaka can't figure it out.

There were, however, two bright spots over the weekend. Two homers in one game from Ortiz and an improved Josh Beckett. Yes, they lost the game he pitched on Sunday, but Beckett pitched nicely: 7 innings, 2 earned runs, 0 walks, 6 strikeouts. Considering what it has been coming from the big Texan, I will take that all day long and then some.

Back at Fenway, it's been a very nice week of beating up on the Angels with the bats and letting the top starters do their thing. Last night, John Lackey threw the best I've seen all season. His fastball moved and it sunk. Lackey's line: 7 innings, 2 hits, 1 earned run, 2 walks, 12 ground ball outs.

Lester was dominate again: 8 innings, 5 hits, 1 run, 2 walks, 5 strikeouts. Buchholz pitched decently, though, he still looks very timid out there at times and gets rattled when there are men on base. His biggest issue in my observation is the same one Beckett has had this season: Throwing strike one. He was saved by crazy offense Monday night when the bats muscled up 17 runs (with Mike Lowell going 4 for 4 with 4 RBIs).

Buch's line: 5.2 innings, 4 earned runs, 8 hits, 3 walks, 2 strikeouts.

Other key things to note: Beltre and Scutaro are showing their value on both sides of the game. Beltre has had two home runs over the last few games (his firsts of the season), and has made some excellent plays at third. Beltre hit a bomb last night to straight away center (over the camera well)  in the 8th inning to give the Sox a 3-1 lead and an insurance run.

Scutaro has been getting on base at a high clip (filling in at lead off for an injured Navajo Jewish Lawyer) and also flashing his skills up the middle and in the hole on defense. It's been refreshing to see both of these guys play up to their talents on the left side of the infield after a few weeks of questionable defense.

Beltre is hitting well-above average at .340, and Scutaro is hitting a nice .288.

So, tonight... Well, the Sox face Scott Kazmir who was good when with the Rays, but now he's all over the place. On the mound for the Fenway Faithful is Andrew Dice K and his 11.57 ERA (not fair, only one start, but damn it was ugly).

Will it be another batting practice or will our $150 million pitcher feel comfortable at home?

BTW: Ortiz hit a single and opposite field home run last night. Hope he keeps it up.

[Image by johnkreese.nomaa via Flickr cc 3.0]

Report Card for the Red Sox : D+ to C- With Upside

It hasn't exactly been a full month of Red Sox baseball, nor is my grade of the team exactly scientific, but screw it. If there is anything that drives a baseball fan to blog it's the love of examining the micro, tossing it with everyday observations and then making macro assertions.

The guys who get paid to do this are making lists about the Sox woes, so let's throw our tiny opinions in the till and see where we end up...

It's not a great revelation to say the Red Sox are a well-below average team right now with traces of stinking failure. The concerns are real.

ESPN's Gordon Edes has it right when he lists the Sox woes including: how the team is struggling mightily at DH, how the run differential numbers are quite scary, how throwing-out base runners is horrid, how enigmatic the pitching of Josh Beckett is and the struggles of a taxed bullpen. And those insanely high-performing Rays are smacking the ball around like they are playing slow-pitch softball. They are a ridiculous team. You want to see differentials? The Rays, as Edes pointed out, are outscoring the opposition 120-42.

Despite all these issues, the Red Sox are saved by one thing and one thing alone: The potential talent of proven players. The emphasis is on proven. It's very easy to wallow in the disappointment of expectations in April, but there is so much more that will happen [insert marathon vs. sprint cliche here].

That water coming out of your eyes is not only from the pollen, but from the panic. Get a tissue. Blow your negative nose and take a deep drag off your inhaler. Despite every issue we can pinpoint over a month for this team, patience may still show reward. So breathe.

Let's get a little perspective: An rib-injured Ellsbury hurts a whole lot. But next month, a Ben Zobrist could dive for a ball at The Trop and end up on the DL. A Matt Garza could get hit by a line drive up the middle. CC Fatsackia could rip something other than a bag of pork rinds.While I don't wish injury on anyone, they happen and they happen to every team.

Victor Martinez will heat up. Josh Beckett will turn it around. The bullpen will get more rest. The left side of the infield will improve its defense. Navajo Jewish Lawyer (Ellsbury) will return, and he will eventually swipe bases (though it could be slow going since it's a rib injury).

We will likely be surprised with offense from Beltre, Drew and Ortiz.

Clay Buchholz has been solid. Lester, by evidence of his last outing, could be making a run. There have been some key contributions from Hermida, McDonald and Scutaro. Youk and Lil Shit are money in the bank. Papelbon has saved games. Lackey is a fighter and should get that ERA down and go deeper in games.

We've already seen that this team can beat up on lesser-talented teams. The challenge will be to beat the really good ones. After getting smacked around by the Yanks and Rays, it will serve this team well to wear that smackdown on their shoulders and grind out games.

I truly believe this team will be competitive. Now how about a sweep in Baltimore this weekend?

For Those of You Who Were Fans of Bay's Glove

...you now get some sort of vindication, thanks to an announcement by the creator of Ultimate Zone Rating that he's revised the UZR formula to better account for ballparks like Fenway that have unusual outfield layouts. Bay and Ellsbury - another member of the negative UZR club - had their 2009 totals increased, with Ellsbury rising from 18.3 runs allowed to a slightly less ugly 10.3 runs allowed, and Bay making the leap from 13.8 runs allowed to a much nicer 1.2 runs prevented.

However, before anyone see this change in formulas as a sign that the Sox screwed up by letting Bay go, don't get too excited: it turns out Theo & Co. have their own formula for measuring defensive capabilities, and they saw both Bay and Ellsbury as being about average in the field. This revelation led John Tomase to conclude that Bay's time in Boston was done earlier than we initially thought:

The new UZR wouldn’t have impacted the Sox’ decision to let Bay walk. Even with the adjustments, Bay is still at minus-55.9 runs lifetime, though part of that can be explained by his 2007 knee surgery.

More importantly, we now know he was as good as gone once contract talks collapsed at the All-Star break over his medicals.

It's an interesting conclusion, though I have to wonder if the deal still had a chance until the two parties realized they were nowhere near meeting on price.

I Rest My Case

Sure, Wakefield didn't pitch particularly well and after the first inning it seemed like they weren't going to score again until the next game (maybe), but then the bullpen came together, the offense broken their 0-for-32 with RISP streak, and the defense didn't commit any errors.

Well, unless you count those nine stolen bases.

But the stolen bases were in the first half of the game, right? The bad half of the game, where it seemed like Boston was going to lose its sixth straight game and look pretty terrible in the process. The good half of the game was pretty awesome, because the ratio of runs given up to runs scored suddenly flipped, the score tied up, and a 31-year-old AAAA player named Darnell McDonald who had just came up from Pawtucket to replace the injured Ellsbury got to be a hero twice. In fact, he got to be a hero by bashing opposite field balls over and off the Monster, so not only is the guy giving the Sox their first piece of good news in a long time an underdog hero, but he did it in the old-school Red Sox style.

So: take away the day games and suddenly the Sox get a win. So my theory clearly has merit. Especially after I conveniently ignore that the two pitchers who served up the heapin' helping of come-from-behind victory were Darren Oliver (of long-standing Red Sox infamy) and Frank Francisco, who as a closer has more hits than strikeouts and innings put together. Hopefully the Sox will ignore those two as well and use the confidence boost from last night's win to get back on the victory bandwagon.

Jacoby Ellsbury Cares Not For Walks - And That's Bad

I'm glad Jacoby Ellsbury is hitting on a regular basis - I really am - but I get a little nervous when he lets loose with quotes like this one:

If you’re fast they’re not throwing you many balls. They don’t want you on the basepaths. As a fast player, as a leadoff guy, they’re not going to pitch around me. It makes it tough to walk. If you go up trying to walk you get down in the count. If the pitch is there you have to be swinging at it. You can’t be taking (good) pitches just to walk.

On the surface he's right, of course: if Mark Bellhorn is complimenting you on your ability to take pitches, you're going to be looking a strike three an awful lot, and that means you won't be on base to grab steals and score runs.  But Ellsbury is taking things too far: by taking the mindset that he can't wait for pitchers to miss, he's running against the philosophy that's made this team's offense so effective: the Sox take pitches.  They run deep counts and wear out pitchers.  They care so much about OBP that their broadcast network includes it in the onscreen stat line.  Having a lead off hitter who uses both his words and his actions - he's got 12 walks in 50 games - to speak to his ignorance of this philosophy is a problem.  Here's hoping he realizes how much of a problem soon.

Julio Lugo Watch: Day 1

I guess our luck had to run out eventually, although I won't lie: I was moments away from tweeting a paen to our bullpen when Lopez had his misstep.

More important than the outcome of one game, however disappointing, we've got Lugo's return! Yay! To celebrate the occasion, I think we should do a tally of how our purported starting shortstop did on his first day back.

Remember the old, bitter joke about Julio Lugo: how he isn't on the team for his glove, and he isn't there for his bat, so why is he there? Well, the glove part still seems to hold true: Lugo had an error in the third on a bobble and a miscommunication with Ellsbury in the fifth that led to a double. Getting back into the swing of things on a cold night after missing most of Spring Training might be the sole reason for the problems, but I think Lugo's lost the right to claim the benefit of the doubt.

Lugo did drive in a run and score another with his bat, but his error in the third cost the Sox two runs (one run scored on the play, another scored when a home run knocked in De Rosa a few batters later), so the score is even...and the errors cost Penny and the bullpen some pitches. I'd say a down night overall.

And You Say They're AL Champions?

One down, 161 to go. Revenge is a dish best served cold. Why don't you Rayhawk this!

I could gloat some more - and believe me, no matter how much I could end up looking the fool tomorrow, I'm enjoying the time in the sun right now - but I'll let the facts speak for themselves:

• Their team could only scrounge together three hits (one apiece for their top three hitters) and seven total base runners against three different Boston pitchers.
• Every member of our line up except Cherub Rock got a hit today and we left as many men on base as they had base runners.
  
• Their starter - who, in one of those terrible crossovers between real life and fantasy rooting, was one of my starters - barely lasted five and a third innings and was really only in control for two. He also fueled the Jason Varitek power surge that might just make us all look like fools real soon.
• Our starter had one inning where things weren't clicking and was otherwise the generally nasty Beckett we know and love. Very early, I know, but if Beckett, Lester, and Matsuzaka create a good competitive rivalry, 10 strikeout games might become a wonderful regularity.
  

Cherub Rock Indeed

I think - and I can't be sure, because MLB.tv fancy new DVR technology doesn't work either (seriously, guys: what the hell are you doing over there?) - but I'm pretty sure Jacoby Ellsbury's walk in music is "Cherub Rock." If that's the case, well done to whoever is up in the music booth.

Coco No More

The Sox confirmed that they traded Coco Crisp to the Royals for reliever Ramon Ramirez. Unless you're far more familiar with the ins and outs of the Royals bullpen than I, I'm sure you had a similar first reaction: who? Fear not: once you take a look at the numbers, dealing Coco straight up for a no-name reliever makes sense. At 27, the right-handed Ramirez has three calendar years' experience in the majors - two in Colorado, one in Kansas City - with phenomenal numbers (ERA+ above 140, K:BB ratio of about 2:1, WHIP and ERA that have both fallen over time) over sixty-plus appearances in both 2006 and 2008. The catch is 2007, when Ramirez hurt himself twice: a sprained right elbow in April and a right elbow inflammation in September, and spent of the rest of the time sucking wind. Clearly he healed well enough to continue his march forward this past year, but a guy with a damaged wing who relies on low-90s hard stuff to make his living is a potential liability as he gets older. The Herald believes there's a possibility of Ramirez figuring as a set piece in a larger trade later on.

In addition to confirming the long-term decision to support the Jacoby Ellsbury Project in Boston, this move means happy trails to Covelli Crisp, the little engine who never quite could in Boston. To be sure, he had his hot streaks, particularly in the second half of this season, when he picked up the slack from Ellsbury's rookie/sophomore struggles, but the guy who came to Boston to replace Johnny Damon never really established himself after breaking his finger in early April, 2006 in Baltimore. Best of luck to you in KC, Coco; I hear they're big into OBP now. We'll always have 2007 and the time you almost broke your wrist sliding into the triangle.

Speaking of Baltimore: glad to hear the Orioles are acknowledging their home city now.

Beating the Rays, Or The Evolution of Moneyball

I won't go into series analysis today; the previews across the web have done a fine job giving effective coverage to all angles. Personally, I recommend Paul SF's excellent dissection over at YFSF and Evan Brunell's exploration of key series factors at Fire Brand of the American League, but suffice it to say that all commentary points to another tight ALCS with a good potential for Red Sox victory. Boston in seven games sounds like a good call to me.

No, what inspired me to put fingers to keyboard this morning is an article on The Process, Theo Epstein's term for the Red Sox player development system. As we all know, Boston's heavy investment in its farm system has paid enormous dividends: Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youkilis, Lowrie, Masterson, Delcarmen, and Papelbon are all homegrown and all key components in Boston's championship-level success in the past two years. What intrigues me about the Globe's description of The Process - as necessarily undetailed, beyond the description of a consistent manual of development used by every level of the organization, as it may be - is that we are witnessing the next level of evolution in the scientific process of player development made famous (and infamous) in Moneyball.

Moneyball was all about the use of statistics to determine player value. Its development by Billy Beane was the result of the need to produce results in the straightened circumstances of Oakland A's baseball, but a perfect storm of circumstance lead to its adoption by other number-minded GMs across the sport. In the process, it won approval among the population of statistically-minded fans, popularized a revolution in how people watch and comment on the game, etc. But as Moneyball and more vocal stats organs like Fire Joe Morgan make clear, using statistics to predict future performance explicitly denies the use of any other predictive system. You know, like intangibles. Make up. Whatever black magic it is that scouts use when they look at players in high school and college.

We all know that Epstein is a Beane disciple from back in the day. But here's where the evolution comes in: when Theo talks about the club's pre-draft evaluation of player make up:

"We sit down and brainstorm about what we're looking for, which attributes we think make a major league player successful, and then we question our own assumptions," Epstein says. "OK, we think we want players who are tough and gritty. Well, what does that really mean? Can you actually see that in a 17-year-old, in a 21-year-old? Does it look different when he's 17 than when he's 25? We think we want players who are intense and baseball-centric, who are focused on the game. Well, what about players who are too intense and too focused? Do they put too much pressure on themselves?"

In essence, applying science (through sports psychology) to the profiles of players whose statistics attract organization attention, adding a layer of filtering to the selection of players that Boston hopes will do well in the big leagues. Taking the idea even further - since I'm sure the Rays, with their own intensive focus on player development, have a process similar to that of Boston - this ALCS might well be a demonstration of the powers of science in player selection. Given the parity between the two clubs and the expectation of a long, fun series, seeing this type of science in play has to be a good thing for fans of the sport.

For No One

My mind does ache. And now, a breakdown of the game, in the form of a mental debate:

• The negative: It's after 1 AM, I have to get up for work tomorrow, and I don't even have a victory to make the exhaustion worth the trade.
• The positive: Yeah, losing is no fun, but we're still ahead two games to one with one more in Fenway and we made the Angels eat through their entire bullpen to get that win. If K-Rod or Scot Shields even looks at a baseball before some time next week, their arms will probably fall off.
  
  
• The negative: But we had so many good chances! That first ill-begotten lead, later on when Ellsbury only failed to take second because he's too goddamn fast, later on after that when Ellsbury struck out looking because the ump had some sort of chip on his shoulder or vision impairment that kept him from seeing a ball a foot out of the zone and the winning run would have walked home in the next at-bat...
• The positive: At least we were efficient about it. Four runs on thirteen baserunners is a lot better than the five runs on 21 baserunners the Angels had to offer. We just have to get to tomorrow's starter early and we're golden for another trip to the ALCS.
  
  
• The negative: We were beaten by Howie Kendrick and Erick Aybar, the very definitions of FAIL in these past three games. I'd feel better about losing to Groucho and Harpo than those two.
• The positive: Francona might have been better going to Byrd than sticking with Javier Lopez for a full inning, but the bullpen did a great job: they kept the Angels off the board for seven innings without forcing the Sox to pull in one of the starters they might need for tomorrow.
  
  
• The negative: Beckett looked like reheated ass on the mound tonight. This was not the post-season Josh Beckett to which I am accustomed.
  
• The positive: No, but tonight's frustrations were a team effort. We'll shake 'em off and get 'em tomorrow.
  

Send Me An Angel

ALDS Game 1: Boston Red Sox 4, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 1

Ahhh feel that? That’s October baseball. Playoff baseball. The leaves are turning and the dirtdogs are barking. It’s my favorite time of the year.

Before I get into the meat of the game log and not to rub it in, but that’s 10 postseason wins in a row against the Angels of wherever they claim to be from. The Red Sox just have their number. I know they have the best record in the AL, but I LOVE to seeing them in the first round.

Tonight was almost all about Jon Lester. I know everyone has gushed like pink hat wearing tweens about the guy… but he deserves it. He is a freak of nature. He can’t be beaten by base runners, pitch counts or cancer. I am pretty sure he is the government’s answer for Chuck Norris if Chuck ever goes “bad”. I mean it! Norris goes rogue and the president presses a big red button and deploys Jon Lester.

He pitched 7 innings of guts and glory with no earned runs and a belly full of bees. It would have been a SCORELESS 7 if not for Jed Lowrie and his awful Tony Graffanino imitation. That dumb error led to the only Angel run and almost got me calling Jed “Rat Boy” for the rest of the playoffs. He looks like his last job was teaching 4 turtles ninja skills. The only blunder that topped that was the bad running by Vlad in the 8th. Only a dummy tries to take 3rd on Youks arm.

On the offensive side of things, the injuries really took their toll on the Sox lineup. J.D. Drew and Mike Lowell were both too injured to play in this game. That didn’t stop them from STARTING… but they were sure as hell hurt. Lowell can barely run. Papi is also a shell of himself and if it wasn’t for the insurance RBI in the 9th he would have been another 0-fer.

The GOOD news was coming from Bay and Jacoby. The Sox got on the board thanks to a MAMMOTH 2 run blast from our Canadian friend. He almost looked excited about it too. As for Jacoby, this kid is another type of player in the postseason. He was on base all night. Stealing bases, hitting doubles and taking 3 bases on missed catches… there was nothing he didn’t do tonight… and that includes making amazing catches in center (he FLEW out there). He is like Apache Chief and when the playoffs roll around, you know he is screaming INYUK-CHUK!

With the 3 run lead, the ball went to Papelbon and the Paps delivered. He struck out the side to end any drama. He used his fastball (overpowering) and even found his splitter to get a big K. Soooooooo tasty! This was just a fantastic win that would be even sweeter if it wasn’t after 2 in the morning. So let’s wrap this up and let me get some shut eye so I can dream of the Angels and the rally monkey they can’t get off their back.

Time To Play Host Again

Hart Brachen says Zen...I say statistics. Either way, everyone wins (except the Jays).

Since Friday's predictions went so swimmingly, let's see if I can predict the course of the series against the Indians, too:

• In 2008 (which amounts to two games, but Baseball Reference sums this up as 20 games because there were 20 batters involved. In retrospect, that's a pretty odd way to do the calculation.), the Sox offense has splits of .347/.415/.556/ against the Indians. Those two games were in Cleveland, so their relevance is a little questionable, but hey: at one point in the year (mid-April, to be precise), we could hit the Tribe's pitching. We'll just ignore the fact that one of the pitchers was Paul Byrd, mkay?
  
• At Fenway, the Red Sox offense boasts splits of .293/.374/.470, which are fine and dandy numbers, except that they include the entirety of the year when, you know, we had a full lineup and not middle-lineup guys with balky tendons and spasming muscles. In September, the tape and glue job we've got running to power us into the playoffs is hitting a much more pedestrian .263/.348/.447.
• Our leadoff hitter just woke up and realized it was September. Actually, that's not fair: as befitting a fancy-pants college boy, he did an intellectual analysis of his swing and discovered (and fixed) the holes causing his extended slump. The results are the same no matter what, though: he's got a 12 game hitting streak where he has six multi-hit games and splits of .345/.368/.545. Heating up for a repetition of the 2007 post-season extravaganza? I'm all for it.
• Of the four pitchers going this week, only the former Indian has anything approaching respectable career numbers against Cleveland: Paul Byrd has a 1.60 ERA and a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio in 45 innings against the Tribe, dating back to the early part of this decade. Lester and Wakefield have middling numbers, while Josh Beckett has surrendered 18 earned runs in 24.2 innings. Of course, he's also got almost 4 strikeouts for every walk and it's September, a mystical time when, like Sir Gawaine and his tripled strength at the zenith of the sun, Beckett waxes most powerful. I'd say a split with a good possibility of a series victory seems is the most likely result.
  

In Retrospect, Fun Was Had

I would have preferred a win, of course, but if we had to lose, at least it was exciting: Francona going so hardcore on his Rain Man impression that he's stirring up dead leaves and loose paper on the other side of the field, Big Papi at the plate, the fate of the free world in his hands...

The camera angle tricked me when he hit that final pitch. Maybe it was self-induced hysteria, I don't know. I do know that when the ball left his bat I cut loose with my baseball celebration yell: the one that could do double duty as a war cry and has no doubt left my landlords upstairs wondering if I suffer from Tourette syndrome. All for naught, however, as a slightly more sober viewpoint quickly ascertained.

But that wasn't the end! Jacoby Ellsbury, stealing bases and making friends! Not on a particularly good jump, mind you, but more than enough to rattle Nivarro into throwing the ball into centerfield. Emotional rollercoasters are a dime a dozen these days, but I think those few moments - Kotsay's walk, Papi's loud out, Ellsbury's advancement - certainly qualify for the necessary ups and downs. I was praying for the suicide squeeze...maybe next time.

Jacoby Ellsbury is Unstoppable

Two games in a row I've seen Jacoby Ellsbury make superhuman catches: last night up against the sidewall in the left field corner, leaping like he had anti-gravity boots and grabbing through the fan reaching for the ball to rob Kevin Millar; and today, in right field, slamming against the bullpen wall to take away a home run from Aubrey Huff in classic highlight reel style.  Tack on two diving catches in center against the pale Sox from over the weekend and you have the trifecta of defensive awesome in one home stand.  Old news, I guess, but I guess I'm pleased to know that my pleasure in watching Flash Gordon do his thing in the outfield doesn't dimish through repeated exposure.

Kotsay Goodbye, Sox Say Hello?

Yeah a bad pun on a Beatles song… but I really didn’t have much else and it’s late.

Anyway, the Sox may have landed (or are still in talks depending on who you ask) Mark Kotsay from the Braves for an (as of yet) un-named minor league pitcher.

No bad news here. With Drew now on the DL, Kotsay is a MUCH better option that Joe Thurston as long as his much maligned back holds up. Also, if they ever need to give Bay the day off, Kotsay, Coco and Jacoby could be the fastest outfield ever. Bottom line is that the Sox just got an outfield band-aid that can hit a bit and field a bit. Not bad for a steal after the trading deadline.

Damn… maybe I should have gone with “Kotsay Up in the Moment”.