John Lackey: Not a Liar

Twitter tricked me into reading Shaughnessy's column this morning, but I'm glad I did so: it gave me the opportunity to foam at the mouth for a few minutes for absolutely no reason. This week's installment is on John Lackey, who's returned from off-season workouts on the treadmill eleven pounds lighter. He claims to have done so while watching SportsCenter, so I can only imagine some of that weight loss is fueled by anger at not having his pitching genius recognized, but either way, he's good to go, is impressing his manager with his energy, and is already making snarky comments about his teammates:

Lackey made a veiled reference to [Carl Crawford] when he said, “I definitely pitch to contact moreso than some of the guys and I think our improved outfield defense will definitely help for sure.’’

There’s code there. Lackey is telling you that one of the reasons for his inflated 2010 numbers was the Sox’ subpar defense.

'But wait,' I thought, hornets of irritation beginning to rise in my brain, 'this team was supposed to be a paragon of defense! And while I don't remember how well the defense played when Lackey pitched, I don't want to believe him because I dislike him for not pitching as well as I thought he should have!'

Fortunately, the Internets exist. A quick trip over to Fan Graphs brought up the by-team defensive statistics summary for 2010 and a secondary trip over to the Fan Graphs glossary told me I should be paying attention to UZR and DRS as the best measures of how the team built around defense did defensively. Some quick reordering and we should have this question sorted out...

...wow, the Sox really were putrid in the field. UZR puts them at 10th to last in the majors, while DRS says they were even worse: only the Pirates and Royals did more poorly. I guess less-chunky Lackey knows what he's talking about. Now, if he can turn that talk into pitching at an above-average level, we'll be cool.

Expect Theo To Make a Relief Move

Recent history with Theo (as Gordon Edes of ESPN deftly points out) tells us he will do everything he can to get a quality reliever either at the deadline or during the August waiver period. Edes gives a very nice timeline back to 2003 of all the key relief pitching moves Epstein has made in his Sox tenure--many that were crucial pieces of playoff and World Series-winning teams--and moves that opened up roster spots for now-legends of Red Sox lore.

Edes reminded me of the Scott Williamson trade who had an amazing run in the playoffs in 2003 (and I'm still not sure why Grady Little didn't use him in place of Pedro in the ALCS game 7). He also reminded me of the Shea Hillenbrand trade to the D-backs that allowed David Ortiz to get more playing time. Don't forget about Myers in 2004 or Bradford in 2005 or Billy Wagner last year.

The problem is the team could have used one right before the West coast trip. The pen has a collective ERA of something like 4.44 (I read somewhere) and is the fourth worst in the league. You can't get to the playoffs with those kind of numbers.

With knowledge of how deeply invested the Sox are in starting pitching, the relief pitching has to be a real target. Can Theo stay that patient as close games are consistently being lost in the 8th and 9th innings? That debacle on Sunday with Oki and the pen was very troubling.

Some rumors are that Sox are courting Scott Downs of Toronto heavily (as are the Yankees). 

My fears about this road trip are almost completely true. Some good starting pitching has been there, but not for the bullpen. At least V-Mart and Hermida are back. Buccholz pitched very nice last night, getting out of jams and going pretty deep with only one early home run given up.

Ellsbury played in the Gulf league and is due back with the team next week. Hopefully guys forget all the BS with where he rehabbed and welcome him back.

Still, even with the win lat night, the Yanks and Rays also won (Garza, the bastard, threw a no-hitter), so they're still 8 games back. Not 9 games back, but too damn close.

Lackey takes the hill tonight in his former home stadium in Anaheim. Should be a bit surreal for him--especially after he drills one of his former teammates in retaliation of a Fernando Rodney fastball in Beltre's back after Ortiz hit a 2-run homer last night off him. The umpire was way too quick to warn benches last night and Tito could visibly be seen saying either to Rodney or the umpire (probably both) "F U C K You!"

That was awesome.

I am always leery of guys who go back to their old stadiums, so I don't expect much from Lackey tonight. He'll probably get a mix of cheers and boos, though since it's Anaheim, he's bound to have a strong Red Sox following. I've been to that place many times and the Sox fans come out of the woodwork in the OC for that series.

Time for tortillas as frisbees and loud chants of "Let's go Red Sox!" and, of course, death to the rally monkey.

For Beckett, It's All About the Curveball Cheese

Josh Beckett's return tonight against the Mariners is going to be watched with trepidation and curiosity.

In my mind, I'm looking for one major thing: Can he throw his curveball 12 to 6 with downward, swing-and-miss tilt? If he lives on the fastball alone this summer is going to get a whole lot worse for this team than it already is... It's not as if the entire season is in the hands of one guy with all the injuries, but Beckett and his big contract extension are very disconcerting if he cannot turn it around.

Lester is a stud on Cy Young pace, but is he as good as Cliff Lee, David Price or Carston Charles down the stretch with the current bullpen? That will be tough... Buchholz has some expected rust at present, but based on his first half, I think he bounces back with a very good season. Lackey has pitched well in the last week, and Dice K had a very nice game on Monday against the A's, but knowing how inconsistent they have both been, it's hard to know where they are heading.

As far as trade deadline stuff, the bullpen HAS to be dealt with as soon as freaking possible, please. The guy I think who is a probable target will be very unpopular with fans, but I think could make a nice splash with the team: Kyle Farnsworth. Yes, the goggle-guy and a former Yankee we all loved to watch implode. He has some of the best numbers for potentially available relievers on a team--the Royals-- that is not in the division, wants scrubs for their farm system and has a history of making deals with Theo and crew.

Don't believe me? Read Krasnick's (ESPN) take on the bullpen market and tell me Farnsworth's numbers are not the best choice here? At least he has playoff and Al East division experience and is a major upgrade over what is there now... Please send Ramon Ramirez away as soon as possible.

Make sure to read this very well done article by Jeremy Lundblad of ESPN on Beckett's stats. He contends it's the changeup that has been hurting Beckett in 2010, but Beckett has never been much of a changeup pitcher in my mind. Lundblad wrote:

In 2009, opponents hit just .191 on at-bats ending with a changeup. This season, it's up to .500. That includes a .563 mark against lefties, who hit just .171 against the pitch in 2009. Beckett allowed only four extra-base hits off his changeup last season, but has already allowed three in just eight starts in 2010. Meanwhile, after fanning 17 on the changeup in 2009, he's yet to do it once this season.

Hard to call a pitch in the 89 to 90 MPH range a changeup when the fastball is 94 to 95 on a good day. His curve has been his out pitch for a long time. But a flat pitch in the low 90s or a hanging breaking ball are too easy for major league hitters to blast, so whatever you want to call them, it simply cannot be those kind of pitches.



Until then, we watch nervously and see if Beckett can return to form. Please throw the curve and make their knees buckle.


[Image by SoxyLady via Flickr cc 3.0]

Seeds of Sox Strengths Starting to Sprout

Pitching. Defense. Timely hitting. It's starting to sizzle a bit at Fenway in the way Theo and crew drew it up.

It's been doom and gloom in the baseball column of Sportstown, USA, but the last four games have me feeling a whole lot better than last weekend's meltdown at Camden Yards.

Last weekend's series sweep by B-more was a crying shame. Dice K had it working for four innings in his debut, but then, it became batting practice... It was awful to watch an already-dejected Wakefield enter from the bullpen only to let the O's think they were the Rays. Poor Wake. He may end up back in the rotation if Matsuzaka can't figure it out.

There were, however, two bright spots over the weekend. Two homers in one game from Ortiz and an improved Josh Beckett. Yes, they lost the game he pitched on Sunday, but Beckett pitched nicely: 7 innings, 2 earned runs, 0 walks, 6 strikeouts. Considering what it has been coming from the big Texan, I will take that all day long and then some.

Back at Fenway, it's been a very nice week of beating up on the Angels with the bats and letting the top starters do their thing. Last night, John Lackey threw the best I've seen all season. His fastball moved and it sunk. Lackey's line: 7 innings, 2 hits, 1 earned run, 2 walks, 12 ground ball outs.

Lester was dominate again: 8 innings, 5 hits, 1 run, 2 walks, 5 strikeouts. Buchholz pitched decently, though, he still looks very timid out there at times and gets rattled when there are men on base. His biggest issue in my observation is the same one Beckett has had this season: Throwing strike one. He was saved by crazy offense Monday night when the bats muscled up 17 runs (with Mike Lowell going 4 for 4 with 4 RBIs).

Buch's line: 5.2 innings, 4 earned runs, 8 hits, 3 walks, 2 strikeouts.

Other key things to note: Beltre and Scutaro are showing their value on both sides of the game. Beltre has had two home runs over the last few games (his firsts of the season), and has made some excellent plays at third. Beltre hit a bomb last night to straight away center (over the camera well)  in the 8th inning to give the Sox a 3-1 lead and an insurance run.

Scutaro has been getting on base at a high clip (filling in at lead off for an injured Navajo Jewish Lawyer) and also flashing his skills up the middle and in the hole on defense. It's been refreshing to see both of these guys play up to their talents on the left side of the infield after a few weeks of questionable defense.

Beltre is hitting well-above average at .340, and Scutaro is hitting a nice .288.

So, tonight... Well, the Sox face Scott Kazmir who was good when with the Rays, but now he's all over the place. On the mound for the Fenway Faithful is Andrew Dice K and his 11.57 ERA (not fair, only one start, but damn it was ugly).

Will it be another batting practice or will our $150 million pitcher feel comfortable at home?

BTW: Ortiz hit a single and opposite field home run last night. Hope he keeps it up.

[Image by johnkreese.nomaa via Flickr cc 3.0]

Report Card for the Red Sox : D+ to C- With Upside

It hasn't exactly been a full month of Red Sox baseball, nor is my grade of the team exactly scientific, but screw it. If there is anything that drives a baseball fan to blog it's the love of examining the micro, tossing it with everyday observations and then making macro assertions.

The guys who get paid to do this are making lists about the Sox woes, so let's throw our tiny opinions in the till and see where we end up...

It's not a great revelation to say the Red Sox are a well-below average team right now with traces of stinking failure. The concerns are real.

ESPN's Gordon Edes has it right when he lists the Sox woes including: how the team is struggling mightily at DH, how the run differential numbers are quite scary, how throwing-out base runners is horrid, how enigmatic the pitching of Josh Beckett is and the struggles of a taxed bullpen. And those insanely high-performing Rays are smacking the ball around like they are playing slow-pitch softball. They are a ridiculous team. You want to see differentials? The Rays, as Edes pointed out, are outscoring the opposition 120-42.

Despite all these issues, the Red Sox are saved by one thing and one thing alone: The potential talent of proven players. The emphasis is on proven. It's very easy to wallow in the disappointment of expectations in April, but there is so much more that will happen [insert marathon vs. sprint cliche here].

That water coming out of your eyes is not only from the pollen, but from the panic. Get a tissue. Blow your negative nose and take a deep drag off your inhaler. Despite every issue we can pinpoint over a month for this team, patience may still show reward. So breathe.

Let's get a little perspective: An rib-injured Ellsbury hurts a whole lot. But next month, a Ben Zobrist could dive for a ball at The Trop and end up on the DL. A Matt Garza could get hit by a line drive up the middle. CC Fatsackia could rip something other than a bag of pork rinds.While I don't wish injury on anyone, they happen and they happen to every team.

Victor Martinez will heat up. Josh Beckett will turn it around. The bullpen will get more rest. The left side of the infield will improve its defense. Navajo Jewish Lawyer (Ellsbury) will return, and he will eventually swipe bases (though it could be slow going since it's a rib injury).

We will likely be surprised with offense from Beltre, Drew and Ortiz.

Clay Buchholz has been solid. Lester, by evidence of his last outing, could be making a run. There have been some key contributions from Hermida, McDonald and Scutaro. Youk and Lil Shit are money in the bank. Papelbon has saved games. Lackey is a fighter and should get that ERA down and go deeper in games.

We've already seen that this team can beat up on lesser-talented teams. The challenge will be to beat the really good ones. After getting smacked around by the Yanks and Rays, it will serve this team well to wear that smackdown on their shoulders and grind out games.

I truly believe this team will be competitive. Now how about a sweep in Baltimore this weekend?

Would You Want to be Called an Injury in Waiting?

The first part of Nick Cafardo's notes column from yesterday discusses the odd circumstances of Jason Bay's departure, tying his decision to leave to Boston's insistence on a contract with protection clauses against injury. Cafardo points out that Lackey and Drew both agreed to take pay cuts or lose options if they become injured, suspects that Boston will require the same stipulations of Beckett and Papelbon, and noted that Dr. Thomas Gill, the team physician who questioned the strength of Bay's shoulder, made the prescient call on the future of Pedro. As you might expect, all of these points lead up to coup de grace indictment of Bay's decision:

What’s puzzling is that if he felt so confident about his physical condition, and understood how good Fenway and Boston were to him, why wouldn’t he go along with the medical provisions, just as some prominent teammates had? If the Sox - according to Bay’s version - were willing to go three guaranteed years and a fourth year with medical protection at $15 million per year, what was so offensive about that?

I expect the answer is little simpler than Cafardo expects: even though four years at Fenway would likely make Bay's numbers far more attractive than four years at Citi Field, choosing to accept a medical provision brands Bay as a player with suspect boy body parts, even if he makes it all four years without injury. At the end of his contract, Bay would be in his mid-30s, already looking at less money as his career declines, and wouldn't want to carry the value-lowering label of potential injury in the bargain. He may be screwed either way: by declining a medical provision while insisting he's healthy, he gives power to the argument that he's an injury waiting to happen, but I can understand why he might have chosen the contract with the Mets as the lesser of two evils.

I'm John Lackey!

Happy New Year. This Fitzy episode is from months ago, but it occurs to me that it's even funnier after the Lackey signing:

Wacky for Lackey

So...despite my vitriolic assertions to the contrary, I guess The Boof wasn't Boston's only off-season move for the pitching staff, what with the John Lackey signing and all. In fact, I might even be willing to say that I completely acknowledge the error of my ways and resolve - once again - to never criticize the methods behind the madness that is the front office, because - despite all of the odd experiments - the Sox keep making these deals that make so much sense. With Lackey, they now have:

• A superior starting pitching staff that's on the verge of becoming 2007-like godly if Matsuzaka carries his form from the last four starts of 2009 into 2010. We thought the '09 staff had an excellent chance of dominating the field in Spring Training, but the success of even that illustrious group required a blessing of the stars; besides the Dice-K question, all the 2010 Sox need ask of their starters is for health and consistency with their already established numbers.
• A trade piece in odd man out Clay Buchholz, who'll have the chance to become the "maybe he'll make it" ornament of some other team's staff. Buchholz becomes trade bait for the bat the Sox will need to replace Bay, now that they've elected to...
  
• ...sign Mike Cameron and choose defense over offense in left field. The deal has everyone saying farewell to the likable-but-expensive Jason Bay and those Gay for Bay t-shirts Robin planned to market, but frees up money for one of those expensive contracts the Sox will likely acquire with Bay's offensive replacement.

Of course, we can't celebrate a successful hot stove season just yet: someone has to agree to make the trade that makes the Cameron acquisition worthwhile at a price that doesn't make us cry for a mortgaged future or (even worse) a missed opportunity. Anyone got a player with .896 (or better) OPS they can spare?