For Beckett, It's All About the Curveball Cheese

Josh Beckett's return tonight against the Mariners is going to be watched with trepidation and curiosity.

In my mind, I'm looking for one major thing: Can he throw his curveball 12 to 6 with downward, swing-and-miss tilt? If he lives on the fastball alone this summer is going to get a whole lot worse for this team than it already is... It's not as if the entire season is in the hands of one guy with all the injuries, but Beckett and his big contract extension are very disconcerting if he cannot turn it around.

Lester is a stud on Cy Young pace, but is he as good as Cliff Lee, David Price or Carston Charles down the stretch with the current bullpen? That will be tough... Buchholz has some expected rust at present, but based on his first half, I think he bounces back with a very good season. Lackey has pitched well in the last week, and Dice K had a very nice game on Monday against the A's, but knowing how inconsistent they have both been, it's hard to know where they are heading.

As far as trade deadline stuff, the bullpen HAS to be dealt with as soon as freaking possible, please. The guy I think who is a probable target will be very unpopular with fans, but I think could make a nice splash with the team: Kyle Farnsworth. Yes, the goggle-guy and a former Yankee we all loved to watch implode. He has some of the best numbers for potentially available relievers on a team--the Royals-- that is not in the division, wants scrubs for their farm system and has a history of making deals with Theo and crew.

Don't believe me? Read Krasnick's (ESPN) take on the bullpen market and tell me Farnsworth's numbers are not the best choice here? At least he has playoff and Al East division experience and is a major upgrade over what is there now... Please send Ramon Ramirez away as soon as possible.

Make sure to read this very well done article by Jeremy Lundblad of ESPN on Beckett's stats. He contends it's the changeup that has been hurting Beckett in 2010, but Beckett has never been much of a changeup pitcher in my mind. Lundblad wrote:

In 2009, opponents hit just .191 on at-bats ending with a changeup. This season, it's up to .500. That includes a .563 mark against lefties, who hit just .171 against the pitch in 2009. Beckett allowed only four extra-base hits off his changeup last season, but has already allowed three in just eight starts in 2010. Meanwhile, after fanning 17 on the changeup in 2009, he's yet to do it once this season.

Hard to call a pitch in the 89 to 90 MPH range a changeup when the fastball is 94 to 95 on a good day. His curve has been his out pitch for a long time. But a flat pitch in the low 90s or a hanging breaking ball are too easy for major league hitters to blast, so whatever you want to call them, it simply cannot be those kind of pitches.



Until then, we watch nervously and see if Beckett can return to form. Please throw the curve and make their knees buckle.


[Image by SoxyLady via Flickr cc 3.0]

This Would Be Why They Play the Games

If I were a superstitious man, I would say that the probability of success in Dice-K's most recent starts is inversely proportional to whether or not I start him in my fantasy baseball line up. I put him in against the Yankees, and he gave up seven earned runs on nine hits in four and 2/3rds innings. I benched him against Philly - logically, I thought, given the team - and he came close to throwing a no hitter. I put him in against Kansas City, a team so wretched that Joe Posnanski has taken to titling his Royals updates "Diary of a Losing Team"...and he gives up three runs on a career-high-tying eight walks.

I might therefore be forgiven for thinking that last night's rather humiliating loss was somehow my fault, but fortunately Matsuzaka gave the quote to set me straight:

“'My lower body wasn’t cooperating today, so I had to rely too much on my upper body...Between these two starts I had noticed a little bit of soreness there, but I didn’t have any problems with my side session. It wasn’t at the forefront of my mind going into my start tonight.

Also, I knew that during my pregame warmup in the bullpen tonight, my pitches weren’t great but I couldn’t make the necessary adjustments.'

"The right-hander added that 'it’s been a long time since my body didn’t cooperate like this, and like I said at the beginning I had to rely a lot on my upper body. I think the velocity was there, but there was no movement and there was no bite to my pitches, not to mention any command.'”

Well, that might explain it, then. From my understanding of body mechanics, acquired mainly through playing baseball badly as a child and bowling with mixed success as an adult, the lower body has far more impact on the eventual placement of the ball than it logically should. If Dice-K's lower body wasn't "cooperating," it's not particularly surprising he was handing out walks like candy at Bob's Discount Furniture. I just wish he'd thought to have said something before making the start.

Daisuke Deals Darts in 6-1 Win Over Toronto

Most people in New England were probably watching the Celtics make Lebron James look like some below-average corporate league player in Cleveland last night and decided to skip watching Matsuzaka's start at Fenway. Or they were watching Lost.

It's too bad because the man-who-wiggles-his-bum-on-the-mound had a very live fastball last night with late movement and swing and miss action.

Matsuzaka struck out 9 Blue Jay batters and gave up 1 run on 3 hits over 7 innings with ZERO walks. You heard it correct. Not a one. He threw 106 total pitches, 71 for strikes. Additionally, he had 5 1-2-3 innings out of the 7, so an excellent and efficient outing against a team that has been hitting.

He did not nibble. He attacked the strike zone much like he did in the first few years in Boston. It is a very good sign.

Will it last? Who the hell knows with this guy, but seeing that many fastballs being thrown and watching batters miss tells me he found something in his delivery to key on. If he can keep batters off base, then he doesn't need to pitch out of the stretch--something I believe gets him out of his rhythm at least in the last few seasons.

On the offensive front, Jason Varitek caught Dice and hit a monster shot in to the upper deck of the parking lot across Lansdowne Street for a 2 run homer. Sox were able to muster 6 runs against Dana Eveland for an excellently pitched game. Ramirez and Okajima were given the ball in the last two innings, so Bard and Papelbon were able to keep their arms fresh.

Today is a day game at Fenway with Wakefield on the mound. Light rain is expected, so hopefully they get it off.

Note: Josh Beckett was checked out yesterday and the brass says he's got nothing more than back spasms. My prediction on the DL is obviously premature, but I will still not be surprised if everyone else is pitching well that they may let him rest the back and actually go on the DL for a week. When will he start next? They aren't saying right now.

[Image by Dave Delay via Flickr cc 3.0]

Seeds of Sox Strengths Starting to Sprout

Pitching. Defense. Timely hitting. It's starting to sizzle a bit at Fenway in the way Theo and crew drew it up.

It's been doom and gloom in the baseball column of Sportstown, USA, but the last four games have me feeling a whole lot better than last weekend's meltdown at Camden Yards.

Last weekend's series sweep by B-more was a crying shame. Dice K had it working for four innings in his debut, but then, it became batting practice... It was awful to watch an already-dejected Wakefield enter from the bullpen only to let the O's think they were the Rays. Poor Wake. He may end up back in the rotation if Matsuzaka can't figure it out.

There were, however, two bright spots over the weekend. Two homers in one game from Ortiz and an improved Josh Beckett. Yes, they lost the game he pitched on Sunday, but Beckett pitched nicely: 7 innings, 2 earned runs, 0 walks, 6 strikeouts. Considering what it has been coming from the big Texan, I will take that all day long and then some.

Back at Fenway, it's been a very nice week of beating up on the Angels with the bats and letting the top starters do their thing. Last night, John Lackey threw the best I've seen all season. His fastball moved and it sunk. Lackey's line: 7 innings, 2 hits, 1 earned run, 2 walks, 12 ground ball outs.

Lester was dominate again: 8 innings, 5 hits, 1 run, 2 walks, 5 strikeouts. Buchholz pitched decently, though, he still looks very timid out there at times and gets rattled when there are men on base. His biggest issue in my observation is the same one Beckett has had this season: Throwing strike one. He was saved by crazy offense Monday night when the bats muscled up 17 runs (with Mike Lowell going 4 for 4 with 4 RBIs).

Buch's line: 5.2 innings, 4 earned runs, 8 hits, 3 walks, 2 strikeouts.

Other key things to note: Beltre and Scutaro are showing their value on both sides of the game. Beltre has had two home runs over the last few games (his firsts of the season), and has made some excellent plays at third. Beltre hit a bomb last night to straight away center (over the camera well)  in the 8th inning to give the Sox a 3-1 lead and an insurance run.

Scutaro has been getting on base at a high clip (filling in at lead off for an injured Navajo Jewish Lawyer) and also flashing his skills up the middle and in the hole on defense. It's been refreshing to see both of these guys play up to their talents on the left side of the infield after a few weeks of questionable defense.

Beltre is hitting well-above average at .340, and Scutaro is hitting a nice .288.

So, tonight... Well, the Sox face Scott Kazmir who was good when with the Rays, but now he's all over the place. On the mound for the Fenway Faithful is Andrew Dice K and his 11.57 ERA (not fair, only one start, but damn it was ugly).

Will it be another batting practice or will our $150 million pitcher feel comfortable at home?

BTW: Ortiz hit a single and opposite field home run last night. Hope he keeps it up.

[Image by johnkreese.nomaa via Flickr cc 3.0]

Lester Back to Dominate Form in Shutout, Sox Sweep Jays

Jon Lester had his best outing of the year giving up only 2 hits and striking out 11 Blue Jay batters. He threw 119 pitches over 7 full innings.

The kid was awesome. All of his pitches were moving, biting and hitting spots in the zone.

Moved his cutter in and out, and used the change-up and curve for a ton of swing and miss strikes. Nothing rattled the lefty. When the Jays had runners on and were threatening, Lester was able to muscle his 95 mph fastball past swinging Jays batters.

Lester, who has had problems with walks this season, limited the base-on- balls to only 2 in this outing. A very good sign.

It went Lester for seven, Bard for one, then to Paps for the save (who has 7 saves in 7 opportunities). This is the kind of shutdown pitching we have come to expect from Lester and the power arms in the pen.

Lester dropped his ERA to 4.71.

The Jays lefty starter Brett Cecil stifled the Sox for 6 innings, but gave up a double to Darnell McDonald, who was later knocked in by Lil Shit on a sac fly for the first run of the game. McDonald has been consistently getting on base and contributing.

One thing to note about last night's game was the benching of Ortiz against another lefty starter. V-Mart was the DH and Varitek caught Lester. Is this the trend we should expect to see? Righty bats against lefty starters? Lowell made a number of DH appearances against lefty's and as a pinch hitter.

Ortiz and his lack of production is finding its way to the bench more often than not, as is Varitek behind the dish. It's been hard to ignore Tek's contribution to the offense, but I'm not confident it will sustain the season. I hope he proves me wrong.

With the sweep of Toronto, the Sox move ahead in the standings to third place behind that team from the Bronx and the Rays. Sox are back to .500 at 11-11 behind first place by 5.5 games. In the last 10 games, the Red Sox are 7-3 with a solid road record.

On to Camden in B-More where it will be so very nice to keep the winning-vibe flowing.

The key outing to watch this weekend against the O's will be the return of Dice-K on Saturday. A healthy and effective Matsuzaka could be a welcome distraction from the struggles of Josh Beckett and parts of the bullpen.


[Image by clareperretta via Flickr CC 3.0]

Dice-K Speaks!

This article might be the best thing I've read about the Sox all winter. Ok, that might be hyperbole; I'm sure if I had a gun to my head, I'd say that, given its timing, the Lackey signing was the best thing I heard this winter, but hearing that Matsuzaka is not only being up front with his employers about a potential injury but confessing to the media that this admission is a sign that he's turned a corner when it comes to talking about being hurt gives me a lot more confidence in his reliability for this season. Here's why:

Earlier this week, I was watching some late night TV when I came across a sports show on the prospects of the Mets. The show had one of NYC's sports journalists on as a guest expert, and he was in the process of running through the pitching staff when I tuned in. Not that this should surprise any of you, but the essence of his comments was: Santana is Santana. Everyone else is a question mark whose ultimate usefulness depends the cooperation of a few different factors and healthy sprinkling of fairy dust. Thankfully, Boston's staff isn't in nearly such tough shape, but without knowing how well Matsuzaka had learned the lesson of injury honesty, his presence made the fourth or fifth pitching slot as much a mystery as the ones facing the fans of the team in Flushing. Which is huge, huge news: no one wants to be like the Mets.

Big Surprise: Dice-K Hid an Injury Last Year

And he hurt himself while training for the World Baseball Classic, so despite what Ichiro might say, we've got another injury to lay at the feet of the WBC. And he hid it from the Red Sox all year, but that's no surprise: players have to walk the line between developing a reputation as a wimp who hurts his team by resting every injury and playing so hurt they're under-performing, and they're going to make a decision here and there that looks terrible in retrospect. What's troubling about the story is that once again it was a Japanese media outlet that broke the story. Maybe Dice-K feels more comfortable talking to journalists when he doesn't need a translator - that seems to be the implication, anyway, because he keeps breaking these stories to journalists in Japan - but if he's going to make an announcement like this one, why not have a press conference and spread the word at large? It feels like he's either thinking word won't get back to the English language press, which is clearly ridiculous, because it keeps happening, or this particular admission - and every one he's made thus far - was something he admittedly only after some probing questioning, which suggests he didn't intend to tell the public in the first place.

Pitching: It's a Problem, But it Could be Worse

Crap in a hat. A few years ago, I have run screaming for the hills - or the ridge in Prospect Park; I'm in Brooklyn, after all - at the idea of facing the Yankees in the Bronx down a key member of the line up. Now I'm just slightly nervous. Shocking the Yanks at home seems like a possibility - particularly after the embarrassments the Bombers have suffered at the hands of the Sox this year - and I'm sticking to my optimism unless something bad happens this evening. In the meantime, let's talk pitching.

There's a sense of panic in the press about the state of the back 3/5ths rotation, with quotes like "a 2-5 record and 7.74 ERA in its past three trips through the rotation" being bandied about like they're signs of the Apocalypse. If there's another Boston Massacre this weekend those fears could - could - be justified, but right now they're just short sighted, for a few reasons:

1. The problem isn't Penny (or even Buchholz, who's had one terrible start, one shortened start, and two quality starts) so much as it is Smoltz. Penny's started 21 games this season; he's given up five runs or more four times, and he's had two starts where he's pitched less than five innings. Remembering that he's both an experiment on the cheap and a fourth or fifth starter, I can't see any reason to complain about what he's brought to the table this year. Last night was just a poorly-timed deviation from the pattern. Smoltz, on the other hand, has only given up less than five runs on two out of his seven starts, and those were against the AAAA teams in KC and Baltimore. Unlike Penny, he's also had almost no run support, so his bad days look that much worse.
   
   
2. Experiments or no, imagine how bad things would be if the Sox hadn't signed Penny and Smoltz now that injuries have put us in our time of need: we'd been looking at 2006 all over again, with the corresponding overexposure of young talent unprepared for the big stage. I'd much rather have veterans like Penny and Smoltz out on the mound than watch the Sox bring up Bowden a year or two too early or try to convert Bard into a starter mid-year. These guys were hired to be insurance and they're providing it, much like Paul Byrd will be if his climb up from the minors proves successful.
   
   
3. Wakefield and Matsuzaka might not be on the world's fastest healing schedules, but it's likely they'll be back before the season is over. It sucks that they're both out at such a critical time in the season, but I think - and yes, I'm about to concede the title to the East - that the Sox have the ability to hang on long enough to take the Wild Card. Time to step things up, boys. Let's start with taking down Cletus the Hutt tonight.
   

Looking at the Heart of the Dice-K Training Controversy

Reading over some of the articles on the storm raging over Matsuzaka's comments to the Japanese media about his training regimen, I'm struck by two things:

1. John Farrell really knows how to take off the gloves once the dirty fighting starts: "It’s one thing to say that, ‘OK, we’ll let you go 125 pitches,’ ’’ Farrell said. “But you know what? You’ve got to go out and be effective. We’re not just going to let someone sit on the mound and throw 125 pitches and be down, 10-0. There has to be some accountability and responsibility on the part of the player." No sugar-coating there, clearly.
   
   
2. This disagreement seems to have its roots in how clubs - and their training staffs - use performance statistics, as verbalized by another Farrell quote: "That’s based on a number of pitchers that when they get into that area you’re predisposed to injury. So we’d like to think that we’re trying to do our best to put him in the best situation and yet this is where the two worlds, the two baseball worlds, somewhat collide."

My reading of Farrell's statement is that the Sox hold the belief that pitch counts reflect what one school of medical statistics says a pitcher's arm can handle every five days. When training, a pitcher should maintain the strength necessary to meet that pitch count without overtaxing the arm and shoulder, which could lead to injury. Matsuzaka and his trainers, on the other hand, seem to follow another school of thought, believing that the pitcher will avoid injury by doing the pitching equivalent of using a 50 pound weight to train for a situation where you'll be lifting 30 pounds - what my friend Fred calls the Nolan Ryan school of pitching. There's some question as to which style is more effective, with some anecdotal evidence that the focus on pitch counts has led to more arm and shoulder injuries, but regardless of the overall truth, the Sox look like they're in the right: Matsuzaka's shoulder isn't strong enough to throw effectively in games.

We'll see how things turn out, but Matsuzaka's rather douchey decision to complain to the press aside, I don't really see this situation resolving itself until the Sox and Dice-K find some common ground on the best way to train.

Way To Make Up Some Ground, Guys

Not sure what's worse: that the Sox lost, or that the Yankees lost on the same night and the Sox missed a chance to gain some ground. I'm feeling a bit pessimistic at the moment, what with Wakefield and Matsuzaka on the DL and the consequent thrusting of the Smoltz experiment into the light, so I'm going to go with the blown chance as the greater of two evils.

On further thought, let me revise: the greatest of all evils was that Boston lost on a night when they had rallied to take a nice lead because the Red Scare had a uniformly terrible night and surrendered runs in dribs and drabs, ultimately coughing up the game in an extra inning loss (that most terrible of defeats) because the offense couldn't score a guy from third, all while the Yankees were losing to Tampa Bay, thereby squandering an opportunity to gain a game back in the standings.

I think that puts things about right.

Ichiro Should Be a Lawyer

Either this interview with Ichiro underwent some heavy cutting that cut all of the logic out of his argument, or he needs to work on his argument construction skills, because his reasoning for not blaming the WBC for Matsuzaka's arm woes doesn't make any sense:

“If you think that’s the reason he’s struggling right now, if people are blaming the WBC, that’s not very smart,” Suzuki said. “People who are saying that are using it for a reason just to have a reason. They’re not really thinking it through. I believe he thinks it’s not due to the WBC, too. People who say that are just grasping for a reason.”

So the real reason is...?

“I’m not his teammate. There’s no way I can know,” he said. “It’s especially hard because it’s not an injury. If there’s an injury, you accept it because there’s nothing you can do about it. The reason it’s such a struggle is because we don’t know what the reason is. It’s a struggle because the reason lies somewhere you can’t see. That’s why it’s so hard.”

Yeah, you sold me on that one, buddy. After reading a non-reason like that one, I'm totally going to stop blaming the WBC for Dice-K's injury this year, or Timlin and Varitek's injuries in 2006.

Surprise, Surprise: Dice-K on the DL

A bit of gloating today, because a.) I'm pleased I called Dice-K's return trip to the DL and b.) that return trip makes this guy look like an even bigger idiot for demanding his burying in an unmarked grave somewhere in the bullpen. Two things of interest from the article announcing the confirmation of Matsuzaka's injury:

1. The MRI results, which revealed that Matsuzaka's shoulder looks just as bad now as it did in April. That one surprises me, to be honest: I'm guessing that a lot of the decision making around whether or not to put a guy back on the roster revolves around he's reporting he feels, but I would still think that the team's medical staff would be giving out MRIs like candy if they thought it would tell them anything useful. From the article (which is admittedly short on detail), it sounds instead like Dice-K hasn't had an MRI since he first went on the DL and - concequently - the team could have avoided problems with a little more testing. Either way, if things haven't changed much since, I bet we don't see Matsuzaka again until late August.
   
   
2. Francona going on the record blaming the World Baseball Classic for the loss of his pitcher. If he's saying it publically, the management and the ownership are saying it privately...and that might mean the end of Bud Selig's promotional party, or at least thelevel of pro participation the first two iterations of the Classic enjoyed. Personally, while I enjoy the concept that the WBC represents, having seen its negative effect on two different Red Sox teams, I'd be happy for a change in the way participation works.

Speculating on the Brad Penny Possibilities

For a baseball fan, there are few things finer than speculating on possibilities. The game's heavy focus on strategy makes it a natural generator of debate, particularly when possibilities are in play: when a team has options for different configurations that might help or hurt the team's fortunes, even the most casual fan has an option they favor. Thus with the Red Sox, who have a wealth of starting pitchers that would make Croesus's baseball equivalent jealous, and for once find themselves in position of strength in the mid-season trading market. The possibilities are two-fold:

1. Brad Penny has proven himself to be a wildly successful gamble whose value increases with every start. Do the Sox trade him - and if so, to whom, and for what - or do they choose to ride his success to the post-season and possibly beyond?
2. John Smoltz, Clay Buchholz, and Dice-K Matsuzaka are competing for a rotation spot. For now, the Sox are opting for a six man unit, but for the sake of their pitchers' rhythms, they'll have to make a decision one way or another before too much times goes by. Who should get the job?

What makes Boston's position even more enviable is that the Sox don't have to make a decision quite yet: they have the time to see Smoltz become a known quantity and if he doesn't work out, keep Penny for the rest of the season or trade him and fall back on Buchholz. If Smoltz proves himself up to his usual standards, they can trade Penny and pitch Buchholz, or keep Buchholz in the wings and hold on to Penny.

My thoughts: wait and see on Smoltz and trade Penny no matter what - but only after Smoltz has had time to establish himself. Unless Penny somehow goes off the deep end between now and the trading deadline, his value will remain high among contending teams desperate for good pitching and the Sox might be able to get a solid catching prospect in return. In addition, a trade will give Boston some value on an expiring contract for a pitcher who will command a lot more money on the market this winter. Waiting until Smoltz proves himself just increases the options in case of a worst case scenario. Either way, they should still DL Dice-K until he's really healthy before putting him back in the mix.

Matsuzaka to the Bullpen? No Way, Dice-K

Both the Providence Journal and the Boston Herald have opinion pieces today calling for the Sox to demote Dice-K to the bullpen to make way in the rotation for John Smoltz. The Herald is a little heavier on the rhetoric - perhaps someone can explain to me how, in an environment where newspapers are failing left and right and the markets are flooded with available journalists, a guy who compares the results of Terry Francona's rotation decisions with what's going on in Iran still has a job - but the sentiment is the same: Matsuzaka is having, to put it kindly, an off year, and because he can't go to the minors or on the trading block, he should go into the bullpen and become the baseball equivalent of the guy who cleans up after strip club patrons. Both writers concede that Dice-K is an unknown quantity as a reliever, but sporting the symptoms of a severe case of the "what have you done for me lately" fever that Sox writers and fans are all too apt to experience, feel the club is better served by having Matsuzaka exiled.

While I agree that Dice-K is having a craptastic first half and shouldn't be taking the ball every fifth day, I think moving him to the bullpen to serve as an example for any pitcher who even thinks of screwing up shows an astonishing lack of forethought. Anyone who's a fan of this move does realize that we're stuck with Matsuzaka for another three years, right? If we throw him into the 'pen and he never gets a chance to recover the magic touch that made him a strong addition to the rotation in the last two years, those three years are a complete waste.

So, rather than bullpenning him, how about putting him on the DL? Pitchers - even pitchers with as many innings on their arms as Dice-K has - don't completely fall apart at age 28 unless they're hurt...and conveniently enough, Matsuzaka has already been on the DL this year. If he never fully recovered, it might very well be at the root of his pitching problems.

Is the WBC Tainted?

As I was getting ready for work this morning, I started thinking about how the sixth year of a decade has been a pretty tough one for Red Sox teams for the past 90 years: two World Series losses that formed part of the legend of futility, mixed with some cellar dwelling and a post-AL Championship hangover. 1996 featured the terrible start. 2006, as we remember all too well, was the year that a team with a hot start and post-season potential suffered injuries and massacres to limp into third place in a finish that was painful to behold.

2006 was also the year of the first World Baseball Classic. I enjoyed the games at the time, but when Varitek, Timlin, and other players started pulling up lame in the middle of the season, I could see why some could cast blame on Bud Selig and his crazy ideas. Three years later, we've another WBC. This time, one of our starting pitchers played a starring role, helping to capture another title for his home country while pitching a buttload of innings - almost five innings per start - a time when most pitchers are still stretching themselves out. Now he's fighting arm fatigue and a stint on the disabled list. I'm not saying the WBC is completely to blame, but it's certainly a very easy scapegoat and Dice-K on the DL will be another nail in the coffin in the minds of many fans.

Good to Get the First Blowout Out of the Way Early

Hooray for the mutability of the early season, when a team like Baltimore - lowly, lowly Baltimore - can find itself in first place after trouncing the Yankees for a brace of wins. Good for Baltimore for proving they're not the AAAA team we all expected, but it makes me think of visiting Camden Yards in 2005 while the Orioles were on one of their rare first place runs and getting heckled by fans who should have known the hammer was about to fall.

Speaking of hammers falling, it's good to know that Scott Kazmir still seems unhittable. It's deceptive in a way, because while Kazmir really isn't that good against Boston, seeing him shut down the offense is an expected return to status quo that one wouldn't expect from his 3.02 ERA in Fenway or 3.62 ERA against the club. No worries about the loss, though: it sets up a nice rubber match for this afternoon and we can see Matsuzaka translate some of that WBC mojo into a Rays shutdown.

And You Say They're AL Champions?

One down, 161 to go. Revenge is a dish best served cold. Why don't you Rayhawk this!

I could gloat some more - and believe me, no matter how much I could end up looking the fool tomorrow, I'm enjoying the time in the sun right now - but I'll let the facts speak for themselves:

• Their team could only scrounge together three hits (one apiece for their top three hitters) and seven total base runners against three different Boston pitchers.
• Every member of our line up except Cherub Rock got a hit today and we left as many men on base as they had base runners.
  
• Their starter - who, in one of those terrible crossovers between real life and fantasy rooting, was one of my starters - barely lasted five and a third innings and was really only in control for two. He also fueled the Jason Varitek power surge that might just make us all look like fools real soon.
• Our starter had one inning where things weren't clicking and was otherwise the generally nasty Beckett we know and love. Very early, I know, but if Beckett, Lester, and Matsuzaka create a good competitive rivalry, 10 strikeout games might become a wonderful regularity.
  

Recession Pricing: Red Sox Get It, Yankees Do Not

As the Projo Sox Blog points out, Peter Gammons published a piece today comparing dollars spent on pitching by the Red Sox and Yankees this offseason. The relevant paragraph that really warms the cockles:

So as the Red Sox prepare to sign Lester for five years and $30 million, they will pay Beckett, Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, John Smoltz, Brad Penny and Clay Buchholz less than $36 million this season. Compare that figure with what the New York Yankees are paying two of their pitchers. If you include two $3 million bonuses CC Sabathia will receive during the 2009 season, Sabathia and A.J. Burnett will make $36.5 million. Boston has 2009 obligations to Beckett, Lester and Matsuzaka for $21 million.

What makes this comparison even better? I'd take Beckett, Lester, and Matsuzaka (let alone the other guys on this list) over Sabathia and Burnett (particularly Burnett) any day of the week.

Surprise, Surprise: Tazawa Signs With the Sox

Welp...looks like we got ourselves another pitcher. Actually, we've got ourselves another two pitchers, but anyone excited about Wes Littleton and his rapidly declining ERA+ and climbing WHIP might need to get themselves treated for baseball withdrawal. But no, the pitcher in question is, of course, the result of Boston's far eastern fishing expedition, the man who landed in Boston so he could (supposedly) pitch with idol Daisuke Matsuzaka: Junichi Tazawa.

Frankly, I don't know what to make of Tazawa: the Globe reports that in addition to a low-90s fastball, "[Tazawa] is said to have good command of both a breaking ball and changeup, the latter reportedly having the action of a split-fingered fastball," but then they go on to use Craig Hansen as a precedent for signing an amateur to a major league contract...and we all know how that experiment turned out (whether or not you want to blame Hansen's ultimate failure in a Sox uniform on his own inabilities to adapt to major league hitting or his overexposure in 2006 is a point for debate, but the end result is the same). Tazawa will start out in the minors and his contract is a paltry $1 million a year, so I guess if he doesn't pan out it won't be a big loss.

The real Hot Stove starts when, now?

All These (bad) Things That I’ve Done

ALCS Game 4: Boston Red Sox 4, Tampa Bay Rays 13

Breaking down the Red Sox players using lyrics from a semi-emo pop alt band? I guess it’s the best I can do with this mess.

When there’s no where else to run/ is there room for one more son
To Tim Wakefield the Game 4 starter. And the answer is no. He was supposed to be our stopper and he couldn’t go 3 innings. More runs, more homers, more of the same. He left the Sox with their backs up against the wall. That might have even been his last appearance in the Red Sox uniform. That thought alone has put a damper on the entire postseason in my mind.

If you can hold on, hold on
To Masterson and Oki. Maybe one of the brightest spots in these disasters, these guys have done a pretty good job of keeping runs off the board. Can’t complain about this part of the pen.

I wanna shine on in the hearts of men
To Jason Bay. The other bright spot this October. Everyone misses Manny (his bat anyway) but the offensive and defensive prowess of Bay has made the Sox look a lot less wimpy then they actually are. The thought of having him for another year keeps me out of the knife drawer after these games end.

I want a meaning from the back of my broken hand
To the injured Mike Lowell. The Sox offense was really missing his bat. I know Kotsay has been nailing those line drives, but the Lowell blasts off and over the wall could have really helped this series. His surgery next week hopefully can fix his hip issue… otherwise the Sox are going to need to make some major acquisitions in the off-season.

Another head aches, another heart breaks/ I am so much older than I can take
To the captain Jason Varitek. This man looks 10,000 years old at the plate. When Cash hit that MEATBALL into the monster seats in the 3rd inning, the first thing I thought was “wow I think that would have blown Tek away.” His bat speed could be compared to molasses dripping off a table. Oh… and there is no one to really take his place in the Sox minors… awesome.

And my affection, well it comes and goes
To Jacoby Ellsbury and the pink hats that love him. He was hot for the ALDS and has become a black hole in the ALCS. So much so that he didn’t get the start tonight and Coco took the spot. The pretty boy can’t look more lost at the plate and that’s the last thing you want out of your supposed leadoff hitter.

I need direction to perfection, no no no no
To Jon Lester who had the No-No early this season, looked great against the Angels… but sucked against the Rays. I am confident he will be back on top next year… but boy does he look burnt out.

Yeah, oh don’t you put me on the backburner
For Sean Casey who has been put to the VERY bottom of the Sox bench. Is he hurt? Is he banging Francona’s wife? Did he murder someone in Istanbul and is currently serving a life sentence in a Turkish prison? We may never know, but we do know he isn’t getting the bats that his slap single style deserves.

Yeah, you got to help me out
To Mike Timlin, Javier Lopez and Manny Delcarman. SOMEBODY help me understand why these guys have jobs. They have been nothing but awful and it hurts my SOUL watching them pitch. Delcarman alone may make DC turn into a homicidal maniac. As I write this he is asking me if “this will incriminate him in court” during a trial that may or may not happen… if they find the body that is. All scary stuff.

You’re gonna bring yourself down/ Yeah, you’re gonna bring yourself down
To Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedrioa. These two have done everything in their power to drag the Sox into the post season and are kicking and flailing wildly to keep them there. Check out the body language on these two. They look like they are frustrated beyond all imagination and THEY WON last year. I think they might go on a 4 state killing spree after this thing ends.

I got soul, but I’m not a soldier
To the hollow men: David Ortiz and Josh Beckett. These two guys were the ROCKS that this team was based on… and neither of them has come through in this ALCS. Beckett looked so bad in game two that people clamed he was hurt. And I almost wish he was because at least that would explain it! I could not imagine another scenario where I WANT the ace of a staff to have a game hampering injury. As for David Ortiz… well maybe it’s the wrist injury and maybe it’s the loss of Manny’s protection… but I know Pig Papi, and THIS man is NOT Big Papi.

Over and out, last call for sin
To the Red Sox and Dice-K. Game 5 is perhaps the last game of the season for the Sox and it is up to Matsuzaka to help pick this team out of the gutter. Do I trust the big import to shut down the rolling Rays? Not really. But there is no other option now. Smoke’em if ya got ‘em.

While everyone’s lost, the battle is won
And this one is for the Tampa Bay Rays. Watch your back fellas. The Sox were in this same exact hole last season against the Indians and we know how that turned out. Now I know this isn’t the same team and they don’t have the same pop and drive… and well… talent… but the Rays better win ASAP, because you don’t want to give the Sox some life… that’s all I am saying.

If you can hold on… hold on.