Will Josh Beckett Win 300 Games?

Beckett at the helm is a nice way to end the first half: three hits, no runs, no walks, seven strike outs, and a league-leading tie of 10 wins with teammate and fellow All-Star Tim Wakefield (himself the subject of a nice profile in today's Globe). Beckett's 2009 ERA+ is 140, 22 points higher than his career average; his WHIP is 1.149, well below his career average of 1.216, and overall he looks far more impressive than the 2 and 2 starter with the 7.50 ERA that started the year.

But yesterday's domination of the lowly Royals was more impressive than the piling up of some sweet statistics that pulled Boston to three games above New York in the AL East standings: after eight years at the major league level, Josh Beckett has amassed his 100th win. Such milestones lead to speculation, for even as we recognize that the win is a flawed statistic for measuring the value of a pitcher, we wonder - especially these days, when conventional wisdom suggests that we'll never see such winners again - whether or not Beckett will win 200 more and achieve the milestone that has helped 20 pitchers find their way into the Hall. So, will he?

First, a few assumptions:

• I'm using Beckett's winning percentage in Boston (.656) because it seems likely that he'll continue to pitch for teams of Boston's caliber (providing the support necessary for amassing a large body of wins) for the productive portion of the rest of his career.
• To be consistent, I'm using his 27 starts per year average from his four years in Boston, which is roughly consistent with what an adjusted starts per year average would be over his career.
  
• Because Beckett is a power pitcher, I'm assuming "the productive portion of the rest of his career" means 10 years, when he's 39.
  

Now, the results:

• 27 stars a year for 10 years is 270 starts.
• With a .656 winning percentage, Beckett would need to make 305 more starts to win 200 games.
• 305 is more than 270.

Not looking good, but there's some room for adjustment. For example, if you adjust the number of productive years to 12, you have 324 starts, which would be enough for more than 200 wins. If you upped the average number of starts a year to 31, you'd also have enough starts for 200 wins. If you changed the winning percentage to reflect the upcoming years of Beckett's prime, you might find enough 20 game-winning seasons to make a difference. It's a tough climb to a vaunted milestone, but Beckett might have the luck and the success to go the distance.

Pedroia to Miss All-Star Game, Tend to Wife

Dustin Pedroia's wife Kelli went in to pre-mature labor last week and has been hospitalized, and so, last year's MVP decided that he will tend to her needs during this 4 day break coming up. He is going to miss the All Star game.

It sucks for the AL, but he's got my support. Sometimes you forget these players have lives outside of baseball, and the lengthy season can get in the way of key moments in a person's life, like the birth of a child or an illness. In Pedroia's case, both are at play.

Luckily for the Red Sox, they have 2 days off after the All Star game which will give him extra days to be with his wife.

He put out this release:

"I have a tremendous amount of respect for the game of baseball and for the All-Star Game and am incredibly honored that the fans voted me this year’s starting second baseman for the American League. I am disappointed that I will not be able to enjoy the amazing experience with the other All-Stars, especially with my Red Sox teammates, but it is important that I put my family first at this time."

Joe Maddon picked up his first baseman Carlos Pena in Pedroia's place. Does that mean Aaron Hill and Ben Zobrist will split duties at second base for the entire game? Not sure why another second baseman wasn't chosen--doesn't make a whole lot of sense, but Maddon seems to be rewarding his own guys.

Smoltz Gets Win; Masterson Losing Steam

John Smoltz got his first win with the Red Sox last night against the Kansas City Royals, and did so by only giving up one run over 5 innings. He left in the fifth inning with an 8 run lead.

Though Smoltz was given generous calls on the outside corner at times, he did have his sick slider and split finger fastball working. As Eckersley loves to say, he was throwing cheese-- the kind of gouda that garnered him 7 Ks over 5 innings.

He may have the best slider I have ever seen. Smoltz's slider drops and disappears out of a hitter's zone like a well finessed drop shot in tennis. And he can place it inside or outside if need be. It's an amazing out pitch, but he throws in whenever he feels like it.

But the story today, and one that has brewing since Smoltz's start in Baltimore, is that the bullpen is starting to fade, struggle and give up runs.

Someone in that pen is, in my estimation, looking at a potential demotion to Triple-A if they don't get back to form--and it very well could be Justin Masterson. Perhaps the All Star break will negate all this speculation.

With Clay Bucholz sitting there waiting to face major league pitching again, he seems like a possible candidate to become a long reliever. Again, this is my best guess, but if I were a GM (HA!) he would be someone on my demotion list (though when Lowell comes back, there will obviously be moves taking place like Bates going back to Portland).

Masterson is not fooling hitters lately, and his supposed-to-be sinking pitches are up. He was charged for 5 runs in the Baltimore debacle and 5 runs last night with a 8 run lead (with 4 hits, one which was a HR). To be a tad more fair, Delcarmen and Okajima were brought in to clean up Masterson's mess, and couldn't do it.

Luckily, Daniel Bard was able to stop the bleeding and the offense continued to pounce on weak Kansas City relief pitching to get the win. But it was a totally whacked game.

Masterson's ERA is now at 4.98 with a whip of 1.43. Nahmally, I wouldn't sweat these numbers for a middle reliever, but since he's become more of long reliever and has appeared in 65 innings, those numbers are not good. If you think I'm being too hard on the kid, look at it this way: Masterson has been a factor in two blown games recently (KC Thursday night--2 runs, blows save; Baltimore on June 30--5 runs; and almost gave up the whole enchilada last night).

Consider this: Last year he pitched 88 innings and gave up 68 hits, 31 earned runs (ERA 3.16), 40 walks, with a BAA of only 2.16. Solid numbers.

This year, in 65 innings has already given up 36 earned runs, 23 walks and now has a BAA of .288.

Sorry, Son, but you ain't Masterin' much lately. I know scapegoating one guy isn't a great thing, but I won't lie: I don't trust the kid. Something about Tampa Bay and the playoffs last year might still be at play.

The guy who came in to keep the Royals quiet in the ninth? Saito. And he went one-two-three. Whew.

Disco Denni
One of the best parts of the night had nothing to do with baseball at all. It was a side by side image of Dennis Eckersley next to Barry Gibb of the Bee Gees on the NESN broadcast, with Eck calling himself 'Disco Denni' and talking about how Reggie Jackson got him and Mike Torres in to Studio 54 back in the day.

A Closer Look at Papelbon

Jonathan Papelbon is a stud closer, and there is no one you'd rather see at the end of game, especially a big game, saving it all and finishing off a win.

Papelbon's success is a significant reason the Red Sox have done so well since the 2004 season. And once again, he was chosen to represent the American League in this year's All Star game next week.

But what about some of the more innocuous statistics behind his role as a closer this season?

One thing that stands out in 2009 are the walks, hits and runs being allowed. In Papelbon's 38 innings pitched, the steely-eyed closer has walked 18 batters and given up 34 hits. He's also given up 4 home runs. His ERA is hovering just under 2 at 1.89.

These are kind of high numbers when you consider that he only walked 8 guys all of last year. In 2007, the year the Red Sox won another World Series title, Papelbon only gave up 15 walks for the year. The most home runs he's given up in a season for his career is 5.

I'm not exactly sure what to make of these stats, other than to say that he is allowing more people on base and getting knocked around at a rate that you would not necessarily expect given his past dominance. Some of this knocking around has been noticeable.

It's not uncommon to see numbers go up a little as teams get more and more comfortable with a pitcher. The AL East has some of the best hitters in the game, and adjusting to his pitches has to have become easier the more they have faced his pitching. But it's still head scratching to see Papelbon approaching career highs in walks this early in the season.

Luckily, he's not blowing saves in any significant way (only 2 so far), but with the way some of these numbers are trending, it will not be surprising to see an increase in blown saves.

The most important statistic for a closer is really only one: Saves. And at the half-way mark for the '09 season, Paps has 22 of those.

[Image by Paul Keleher via Flickr CC 2.0]

Exercise Caution When Dealing for Halladay

How's everyone feeling about the Roy Halladay trade possibility? I must admit I'm a little wary: not because I think Halladay will flop - unlike many of the hyped trades and signings of the past few years, Doc is worth the price, as Dave Cameron of FanGraphs demonstrates - but because the Blue Jays have two big advantages in negotiations:

1. Halladay's contract expires in 2010. As one of the New England sports papers pointed out recently, Toronto has three opportunities to deal Halladay: now, at the end of the season, or before the trade deadline next year. The size of that window gives the Jays a nice piece of leverage: they don't have to deal Halladay now if they don't get an offer they really like, because they'll have two opportunities to do so again over the next year. As an added bonus, if Toronto doesn't get a great deal before the 2010 trading deadline, they'll either make a bid to resign or get two draft picks in compensation.
   
   
2. The market demand for good pitching is enormous. Philly, Texas, St. Louis, and the Mets all have a desperate need for a pitcher of Halladay's caliber, increasing demand and allowing the Jays to charge a much higher price for his services. Combined with the time window that removes much of the pressure from Toronto to complete a deal, this increased demand for good pitching would doubtless require the Sox to part with two or three highly-touted prospects (Buchholz, Bowden, Bard) to make a deal.

I'm pretty sure I've said in the past (probably in reference to Beckett) that trading future value to obtain present value is always a good idea (although some Yankee fans might disagree), but I have to make a corollary in Halladay's case: right now, the market isn't in Boston's favor, particularly for a luxury the team would like to have, but doesn't really need. I'd hate to see the Jays become the dominant team in the AL East because the Sox gave them one too many good pieces in pursuit of a deal.

Congratulations, Tim Wakefield

I've been thinking for most of the day about what to write about Tim Wakefield's All-Star selection, trying to avoid a sappy listing of plaudits while still expressing my admiration for the man and his pitching. Eventually, I realized his selection came down to two very simple ideas.

First, the selection has an aura of added respectability, like the selection is one of those lifetime achievement awards that the Academy hands out at Oscar time, adding yet more luster to the career of the athlete who's carried the Pro torch on a marathon pace in Boston. Red Sox fans love Wakefield because he represents all that we think modern athletes don't have: the virtues of loyalty, team spirit, and lack of ego. He's a folk hero in Boston sports and we love to see our folk heroes recognized by the institutions that helped create them.

Second and more importantly, there is a very "well, duh" feeling behind the choice. To be sure, Wakefield is not having the kind of career year he's been fortunate enough to have twice in his life - the kind that, were he able to reproduce with year-over-year consistency, would surely grant him a spot in the Hall - but as he's aged, he's become the anchor of the Boston pitching staff, the guy who fans can rely on to eat up innings, make thirty starts or so a year, and not land on the DL. His flashes of brilliance are the more precious for their unpredictability, making the guy look like a magician when the volatile mixture of elements that can make a knuckleball dance act in harmony. If Pedro in his prime was great to watch because he looked like a god come to Earth, Wakefield in his element is great to watch because he looks like an everyday working guy who happened to have caught a bolt of lightning for the day. Red Sox fans have known this idea for years. We're just glad the rest of the country will finally get a chance to see him in the same light.

Why Did Francona Leave Saito In After 3 Walks?

Sometimes, I don't understand managers, at all. If a game is on the line--especially late innings of a home game-- and you have a good bullpen, why would you not use them?

Such was the case on Saturday's 4th of July early afternoon game at Fenway Park against the Mariners.

Brad Penny pitched strongly, only giving up 2 runs over 6 innings.
Masterson and Okajimi pitched the seventh and eighth quite well, but Takashi Saito in the ninth was fairly lost out there. He walked Ken Griffey Jr., then gets an out, and proceeds to walk the next two guys for bases loaded.

Why is Saito still out there? Apparently, he is being treated like Papelbon's backup. Here's how Boston.com puts it:

Manager Terry Francona gave Saito the ball because Jonathan Papelbon, having pitched in four straight games and six of the past eight days, required a day off. Saito, just two seasons ago, was an All-Star-caliber closer, accustomed to taking the ball almost every day. With the Red Sox, he understandably has
been used in a more sporadic manner.

That may be the case, but the game was tied. The Sox were not leading, so using Papelbon may or may not have been a factor at all. Yes, sometimes he is used when the game is tied at home in the ninth, but not always.

Saito hasn't been good lately, in fact, "in his previous three outings he had allowed three runs in 2 1/3 innings," said the same Boston.com article.

I realize that Delcarmen, Papelbon and Ramirez had pitched the night before, and this was a day game, but there was at least a well-rested Bard sitting there, and Delcarmen only pitched one inning Friday night.

I don't recall if anyone was warm in that pen or not, but my gut tells me that was not the case. In my view, walking three guys to load the bases means a guy cannot find the strike zone. Time for him to get a smile from Big Papi on the bench, not work out of a jam that he can't seem to figure out.

Seems like after walk number two, this was the obvious situation. It can be good to let guys work things out on the mound, but not when the game is tied, in the ninth and you're facing a strong bullpen.

This is not a knee-jerk reaction to a meaningless loss. This is no WEEI post-game rant. It means the difference between consistently winning series, and not.

Saito told the Ian Browne of mlb.com:

"I'm not usually the type of pitcher to give up a lot of walks to begin with," Saito said. "I can't really recall another incident like today, really."

So how did it happen?

"In the beginning, I think I was overthinking things a little too much and trying to be a little too fine in spotting strikes, and those ended up being balls," Saito said. "From there on, I couldn't make the proper adjustments on the mound."

That same article makes the case that Saito doesn't have a predictable role in the pen, since he was used to closing for the Dodgers, but I don't buy it. He's the second closer, but he's not been good lately, so better have some back up ready to go.

Saito was off, and it was obvious. He doesn't walk guys. The manager needs to know that pretty quickly, especially in a tight game.

After two rings and lots of playoff appearances, second-guessing this Red Sox manager is admittedly an unpopular thing to do. But in some cases, it's warranted.

Saito's not your closer, Tito. So don't treat him like one.

Jason Bay Back to Fenway May Help Keep Slump at Bay

Jason Bay had a rough road trip in Baltimore, Atlanta and Washington. Stupid road trip with a bunch of young pitchers you've hardly seen in your career.

The low light was the 5 Ks in yesterday's come from behind win at Camden Yards, and went 0 for 15 in that Baltimore series, and 6 for 36 overall. It's pretty yucky, but given his talent, I doubt this slump lingers. He says his timing is off (as told to the Herald):

“I’m completely getting myself out now. Timing-wise, I’m kind of in between - I can’t hit the fastball, can’t hit the breaking ball. It’s just one of those situations where everything that could go wrong is going wrong. But we’re winning games, too, so it at least helps deflect it a little bit."

Seeing Bay in a slump isn't something we're used to watching, but going back to Fenway against Seattle can't hurt a guy who, up until now, has been doing really well in the American League.

The only legitimate gripe I can see is that he strikes out a whole lot--to the tune of 76 Ks for the year. Comparatively, however, Bay's K rate ranks him in the number 12 spot in baseball, with a lot of major power hitters ahead of him. Carlos Pena comes to mind, and he's ranked third in baseball with 101Ks for the year so far.

The strikeouts are not a huge deal.

While his average at Fenway is only .254, Bay takes his walks there, and so his OBP is .372 with an OPS of .904. Bay has 7 home runs and 35 RBIs at home. Against the Mariners, Bay has a career .724 slugging percentage and 1.136 OPS.

Good numbers.

The travel day today and the mood of the clubhouse after yesterday's comeback win--or as Eric calls the 'character win'--has me thinking good things for Bay at Fenway before the All-Star Break.

Now is not the time to get down on a key offensive talent that the Red Sox want to sign for the long haul (and may try over the All Star break), and who wants to become a U.S. citizen.

Remember, this is a guy who is third in RBIs (69) in all of baseball behind Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder. He's also tied for third in the AL in homers (19).

A Character Win

For obvious reasons, 2004 was a good year to start this blog, but it's had one problematic side effect: every year, I look for the game of the year, the game that channels the spirit of The Fight Game and demonstrates that deep down, the Sox have what it takes to gel as a team when they need to most. I know full well it's a fatuous exercise: even in 2004, the trade that put together the final pieces didn't happen for another seven days and team went a mediocre 8 and 6 until their big run starting August 10, but the point is to find the games that look big in retrospect right after they happen. I bring all of this discussion up because, despite the vastly different circumstances, yesterday's win has that feel.

Beckett and Varitek are calling it a character win, which also seems appropriate, in the way that the turnaround win against the Indians in the ALCS in 2007 was a character win: the Sox buckled down, grabbed whatever it was that made them such a good team, and won. The 2009 Orioles might be a far weaker team than the 2007 Indians and the game a fairly meaningless regular season contest, but the desire to revenge the prior day's humiliation and reestablish what seems to be the dominant order in Baltimore proved an effective understudy for the 07's unnerving possibility of losing out of the playoffs. Beckett recovered sufficiently to keep his team in the game and his team did the rest - even if they had to go to the brink a few times to do so. If the character of the 2009 Red Sox is to win when winning really matters, I like our post-season chances better and better.

Orioles Historic Comeback; Red Sox Pen Has Awful Night on the Road

You can't argue with the rallying that the Baltimore Orioles did last night at Camden Yards, but from a Red Sox perspective, the bullpen was crap-tastic last night.

I keep hearing this repeatedly over and over in my head: Ten runs over 2 innings. Ten runs over 2 innings.

Was it the rain delay? The big lead in the 4th inning? Heads not in the game? Beat up on the O's so many times you think they suck? So many psychological factors at play that you have to wonder where these guys heads were. But then you have to remember that for most of this season, this pen has been one of the best the Red Sox have ever had.

Let it go? Yes. Watch it closely? Well, close enough--that's what we do here for fun. The 10 runs over the 7th and 8th innings were tough to swallow, but you could feel it slipping away with every hit the Orioles offense made (13 hits in 2 innings for 10 runs--Ouch!).

Right now, pre-All-Star break, the Sox bullpen has the best ERA in the league at 3.24. Leading the league in the bullpen and playing in the AL East is no joke.

Here's some additional perspective on the pen:

• Red Sox rank 19th in innings pitched (with 228) [Thank you, starters]
• Red Sox rank 20th in walks [They throw strikes, gets outs]
• The Orioles rank first in innings pitched with 267.1 innings pitched
• The Orioles have a BAA (Batting Average Against) of .272.

It's no wonder the Orioles are in last place and will continue to be there. But given the amount these teams see each other in a season, it's no wonder an offense can click and rally occasionally. Nice comeback for a consistently losing Orioles team.

But poor John Smoltz. He pitched well enough--1 earned run--to get a win in Baltimore, but that was erased after a hour plus rain delay in which he was removed from the game, and pitching was turned over to Justin Masterson--who started out quite nicely, then lost it.

But he wasn't alone.

The offense did more than it's share last night to seal what should have been a fairly easy win. But the pitching from Masterson and Okajima last night in particular was just plain bad. Masterson was getting knocked around, then left a hanging slider over the middle of the plate, and the game's momentum was in full swing mode.

Even Papelbon, who you knew Francona did not want to have to use, got knocked around a little. All it takes in only timely hit to lose a game, and the Orioles seized it. Papelbon put it this way after the game:

“The good thing is the group of guys we have down there in the bullpen all can take this pretty well,’’ Papelbon said. “And understand that, hey, this is going to happen, but it’s not going to happen very often - and move on. We’re all professionals down there. You won’t see anybody hanging their head tomorrow, that’s for sure.’’

Congrats, O's. Now go back to being in last place.

The Ancient One

Mike Lowell is 35. He has a surgically repaired hip and is in Boston right now because he's been hobbling around on the field. He just had 15 CCs of fluid drained from his surgically repaired hip, causing his manager to quip, "that's going to really help." Or maybe he wasn't quipping. Maybe that was complete deadpan, because his starting third baseman has leg connectors like an old man and he's in his mid-thirties and would presumably have another forty years before having to worry about such things.

There are times I'm glad I'm not a professional athlete. Reading about Mike Lowell's hip is one of those times.

Smoltz First Start with Sox in DC, Then Home to Atlanta

Future Hall of Fame pitcher John Smoltz was home in Atlanta on Friday after a mediocre first big league start for a loss against the Nationals.

But let's be honest, his first start has to be considered a throw away.

Why? There are a whole host of reasons, but the major one to me is that its the first time facing major league hitting after not pitching for a long time and coming off major shoulder surgery for a guy who is 42.

Yes, the Nationals are the worst team in baseball, but that has more to do with a weak pitching starting rotation and pretty awful bullpen. Oh, and by the way, Jordan Zimmerman of the Nationals can deal. He has really good stuff.


Smoltz got knocked around in the first inning after hit a lefty batter on the shin after a wicked bending slider--a pitch to me that looked like it got a whole lot better the more he threw it, and one that will help him keep future batters off because they will never know when he will throw it. Overall, Smoltz improved as he went along by getting more in strike zone focused.

He ended up with 5 Ks in 5 innings with 5 earned runs. He lost, but he settled in and got his slider in more control--and got his fastball hitting the corners.

But most at play here was that thing you read about and hear sports broadcasters talk about so much: Adrenaline.

For the amount that term is used, you think it was a something you wear under your uniform or around your neck. Adrenaline is the biophysical, scientific way of saying an athlete is nervous, trying to be too perfect and is the complete opposite of relaxed.

Adrenaline build up is what you get when you are afraid of failing. Smoltz said as much after the game: "What I feared most was wanting to do so well," he [Smoltz] said later. "It felt different because so many people were rooting for me."

It's not the first time Smoltz has had to deal with nerves as a starter. Remember, this is the guy who went back and forth between a starter's role and closer and dominated in both. The man is a competitor in the best of ways, and something the Red Sox could very well need in a playoff situation.

On calming his nerves before his start, boston.com has this:

On Wednesday, he had spoken about a similar situation that made his nerves
flare. On April 4, 2005, Smoltz made his first start in four years after serving
as the Braves closer. He faced 13 batters. Seven of them scored. Smoltz allowed
six earned runs on six hits and two walks 1 2/3 innings.

Smoltz said he would draw on the experience to help calm his nerves for last
night. In the afternoon, he played cards with Manny Delcarmen and wore a smile
walking through the clubhouse, but jitters seemed to affect him in the first. He
hit the second batter he faced, Nick Johnson, in the shin.

With Matsuzaka on the DL, and looking pretty lost on the hill, having Smoltz able to eat up innings and keep the Red Sox in the game is going to be a great thing to watch going forward.

Is he going to give up runs? Absolutely. But I imagine he is going to keep them at bay better than many pitchers in the league.

Just look at his 21-year career numbers for evidence:

210 Wins, 3.27 ERA, 3016 Ks, 1.17 WHIP, 8 SO/9 innings, .235 BAA

He's going to be good.

Later He Cries Bitter Tears

Remember Julio Lugo? I know, I know: it's been a while (eight games, to be precise), and it's hard to remember he's standing on the sidelines when his replacement is a ninja who clearly spent that missing year of his career in training with Ra's al Ghul. But with Green's star well stuck in the firmament and Lowrie's return immanent, Lugo sees his future all too clearly and he's not shy about making his disappointment known. Sugar coating his feelings is just the way of disguising the knife, of course:

"I'm happy for [Green]," Lugo said. "I'm very happy he's playing well, but that doesn't take away from who I am. I haven't been a shortstop in the big leagues for 10 years because one day I woke up and got two hits. I've been here because I have a history of playing and playing well. That's why I've got 10 years in the big leagues. But I'm very happy for him."

Oh yeah, he's thrilled about riding the pine while someone else starts. Can't you tell?

Nick Green, Glove Machine

At first I was going to say that part of the reason why Green's play looks so incredible is that the first part of it was so awkward, making the recovery that much more amazing. But then I watched it a few more times and I have come to disagree with my initial analysis: that whole move was flat out ninja, from the leap to avoid the sliding runner to the roll and spin to make the strong throw to first. Nick Green is having a career year and I'm very, very glad he's having it with the Red Sox.

Surprise, Surprise: Dice-K on the DL

A bit of gloating today, because a.) I'm pleased I called Dice-K's return trip to the DL and b.) that return trip makes this guy look like an even bigger idiot for demanding his burying in an unmarked grave somewhere in the bullpen. Two things of interest from the article announcing the confirmation of Matsuzaka's injury:

1. The MRI results, which revealed that Matsuzaka's shoulder looks just as bad now as it did in April. That one surprises me, to be honest: I'm guessing that a lot of the decision making around whether or not to put a guy back on the roster revolves around he's reporting he feels, but I would still think that the team's medical staff would be giving out MRIs like candy if they thought it would tell them anything useful. From the article (which is admittedly short on detail), it sounds instead like Dice-K hasn't had an MRI since he first went on the DL and - concequently - the team could have avoided problems with a little more testing. Either way, if things haven't changed much since, I bet we don't see Matsuzaka again until late August.
   
   
2. Francona going on the record blaming the World Baseball Classic for the loss of his pitcher. If he's saying it publically, the management and the ownership are saying it privately...and that might mean the end of Bud Selig's promotional party, or at least thelevel of pro participation the first two iterations of the Classic enjoyed. Personally, while I enjoy the concept that the WBC represents, having seen its negative effect on two different Red Sox teams, I'd be happy for a change in the way participation works.

Speculating on the Brad Penny Possibilities

For a baseball fan, there are few things finer than speculating on possibilities. The game's heavy focus on strategy makes it a natural generator of debate, particularly when possibilities are in play: when a team has options for different configurations that might help or hurt the team's fortunes, even the most casual fan has an option they favor. Thus with the Red Sox, who have a wealth of starting pitchers that would make Croesus's baseball equivalent jealous, and for once find themselves in position of strength in the mid-season trading market. The possibilities are two-fold:

1. Brad Penny has proven himself to be a wildly successful gamble whose value increases with every start. Do the Sox trade him - and if so, to whom, and for what - or do they choose to ride his success to the post-season and possibly beyond?
2. John Smoltz, Clay Buchholz, and Dice-K Matsuzaka are competing for a rotation spot. For now, the Sox are opting for a six man unit, but for the sake of their pitchers' rhythms, they'll have to make a decision one way or another before too much times goes by. Who should get the job?

What makes Boston's position even more enviable is that the Sox don't have to make a decision quite yet: they have the time to see Smoltz become a known quantity and if he doesn't work out, keep Penny for the rest of the season or trade him and fall back on Buchholz. If Smoltz proves himself up to his usual standards, they can trade Penny and pitch Buchholz, or keep Buchholz in the wings and hold on to Penny.

My thoughts: wait and see on Smoltz and trade Penny no matter what - but only after Smoltz has had time to establish himself. Unless Penny somehow goes off the deep end between now and the trading deadline, his value will remain high among contending teams desperate for good pitching and the Sox might be able to get a solid catching prospect in return. In addition, a trade will give Boston some value on an expiring contract for a pitcher who will command a lot more money on the market this winter. Waiting until Smoltz proves himself just increases the options in case of a worst case scenario. Either way, they should still DL Dice-K until he's really healthy before putting him back in the mix.

Oh, How They Come Crawling Back

The David Ortiz home run total is now up to five. Plus, he beat the shift in a big way, so either the Marlins are completely incompetent or Big Papi's got his timing back and every pitcher facing the Red Sox is for loads of trouble. Either way, the papers are now surprised he doesn't want to talk to them:

“That’s where I normally go when I’m swinging the bat good,’’ he said after the Red Sox’ 8-2 win over the Marlins last night.

Then, hurriedly, he left.

Ortiz now swings a big bat and scurries silently.

Is his reticence to talk to the media about what's changed that surprising? Facing daily columns saying his career was over; hearing a barrage of voices demanding his demotion in the lineup, his benching, his release; seeing buckets of ink spilled linking his name with use of steroids; why would he want to talk to reporters when vindication finally arrived? We've all had our faith in the game shaken time after time in the past five years, so the overreaction to any slump of unusual length can be explained - if not justified - by tying it to our fears, but if you kick a guy when he's down, he's not going to want to talk to you when he gets back up.

Matsuzaka to the Bullpen? No Way, Dice-K

Both the Providence Journal and the Boston Herald have opinion pieces today calling for the Sox to demote Dice-K to the bullpen to make way in the rotation for John Smoltz. The Herald is a little heavier on the rhetoric - perhaps someone can explain to me how, in an environment where newspapers are failing left and right and the markets are flooded with available journalists, a guy who compares the results of Terry Francona's rotation decisions with what's going on in Iran still has a job - but the sentiment is the same: Matsuzaka is having, to put it kindly, an off year, and because he can't go to the minors or on the trading block, he should go into the bullpen and become the baseball equivalent of the guy who cleans up after strip club patrons. Both writers concede that Dice-K is an unknown quantity as a reliever, but sporting the symptoms of a severe case of the "what have you done for me lately" fever that Sox writers and fans are all too apt to experience, feel the club is better served by having Matsuzaka exiled.

While I agree that Dice-K is having a craptastic first half and shouldn't be taking the ball every fifth day, I think moving him to the bullpen to serve as an example for any pitcher who even thinks of screwing up shows an astonishing lack of forethought. Anyone who's a fan of this move does realize that we're stuck with Matsuzaka for another three years, right? If we throw him into the 'pen and he never gets a chance to recover the magic touch that made him a strong addition to the rotation in the last two years, those three years are a complete waste.

So, rather than bullpenning him, how about putting him on the DL? Pitchers - even pitchers with as many innings on their arms as Dice-K has - don't completely fall apart at age 28 unless they're hurt...and conveniently enough, Matsuzaka has already been on the DL this year. If he never fully recovered, it might very well be at the root of his pitching problems.

Friday Fun: Graph of David Ortiz's 2009 Home Runs

With home run number four of the season coming last night, David Ortiz has now hit three home runs in the past five days and - even better - has been hitting them at an accelerated rate. With that kind of production, it can't be too long (literally, I think he'd have to do it tomorrow to keep on pace) before he's hitting multiple dingers a night. Graphed out over time, those home runs look like this:

That's right: Big Papi is rocking a geometric progression.

Beckett Is Back

The emotional thrill ride of David Ortiz, the inherent drama and hype of the Sox vs. That Team from the Bronx (and their newly bolstered bad-guy rotation) could not have been captured better, Mr. Hanson.

While the Yankees have yet to beat Fenway's Finest in 2009, the thing I loved about last night's 7-0 shutout--as much as seeing Big Papi destroy an A.J. Burnett pitch to deep, straight-away center--was that Josh Beckett freaking dominated a very hot lineup by pitching to contact for outs and going for the throat when he needed it.

Beckett's line for last night:

• 6 Innings
• 93 Pitches
• 59 Strikes
• 8 Ks
• 21 Batter's faced
• 2 BBs
• 1 Hit
• 6 Groundouts, 4 Flyouts

The first few innings saw a good amount of pitching to contact for grounders and pop-outs, but as the game progressed and runs were scored by the Sox, Beckett became more dominant, more overpowering with corner-painting fastball and 12-6 curveball. His curve was hitting both the high, low and outside parts of the plate--and he was mixing it well enough with the fastball in any count that there was little the Yankees could do, but retreat to the dugout.

There's an excellent post from Mazz on what Lester and Beckett have been doing lately with their pitching--along with some keen history. Here's a snippet about just how good Beckett was last night:

Last night, as was the case last week in Detroit, Beckett had no-hit stuff. The
only hit he allowed was an infield single to Robinson Cano in the fourth inning.
Three nights after Lester struck out 10 of the first 18 batters he faced in six
perfect innings, Beckett walked off the Fenway Park mound at the end of the
sixth inning last night having whiffed eight of the final 16 batters he faced
while allowing just three balls out of the infield.

He's now 7-2, with a 3.77 ERA and ranked 6th in the AL in strikeouts with 76.

That was an excellent one hitter against a very tough lineup, Mr. Beckett. Keep it up.

Triumph of the Yankee Killer

They had their 2003 World Series-winning veteran pitcher. We had our 2003 World Series-winning veteran pitcher. They had their monster line up, their Alex Rodriguez with his .505 slugging percentage that's not only bolstered their line up, but given the previously lacklustre Mark Teixeira the shot in the arm needed for the Yankees to claw their way into first. We had Jason Bay, whose .524/.655/1.143 line in 21 at-bats when facing pinstriped pitching has made him the Yankee Killer the Sox need to lead the charge. The stage seemed set for a showdown of epic proportions.

Oh, and we also had Big Papi.

Because while their Marlins veteran looked like he needed a GPS to find the strike zone and our Marlins veteran was taking a one hitter through six before handing things off to the Red Scare, the Yankees announcing crew was talking about the fall of David Ortiz. 'Was his batspeed down,' they wondered? 'Terry Francona said he didn't think so,' they announced, but they thought anything could be possible. There were some valid questions about when he was swinging, but the conclusion seemed to be that David Ortiz would no longer be the threat to the Yankees he had been in the past and - let's be completely honest here - he should probably consider throwing in the towel.

And that's when Burnett, who had been trying to establish Ortiz on the upper portions of the outside of the plate, came back into the heart of the zone with a 2-2 fastball. Round came the classic swing and only the previous two months' frustration put any question on what was a no-doubt home run to deepest center. Out it sailed into the night, silencing the critics (and Yankee victory hopes) for one more night even as the fans begged for a curtain call from their hero. Let me tell you: the rest of the game might have been a bit dull, but that one piece of schadenfreude was absolutely delicious.

And Now He Has Two

I could watch this video a 1,000 times and still enjoy it. Congratulations to David Ortiz on going 2 for 3 and notching home run number two of 2009. Here's to many more of both.

Keeping the Faith

What a night: Lowell gets his 1,500 hit and gets tossed a few innings later for making a legimate complaint about the shape and angle of the strike zone.  Youkilis gets run over at first stretching out to make a tough play, crawls across the field towards home, and slams his glove down in frustration (right before Pedroia runs over looking like he's about to prevent a homicide) while hearts of Red Sox fans everywhere stop for a moment as the spectre of a DL trip raises his head - and it turns out he's ok.  Beckett gets through six and two-thirds without a hit and ends the night splitting five runs with the usually deadly Daniel Bard.  And Papi...

Here's the thing: I've developed a measure of fatalism about Papi that has led me to watch every one of Ortiz's at-bats as if it were his last.  Doing so last night, I'm not sure which made me happier: seeing him hit that double off of the weak-as-water Nate Robertson as part of the six-run eighth inning, or smash the 420-foot out earlier in the game.  The double looks better in the box score of course, but the long out had all of the elements of a classic Ortiz long bomb that just happened to fall in the wrong part of a very big ball park.  In other words: I'm still nowhere closer to giving up on Ortiz in 2009.

Jacoby Ellsbury Cares Not For Walks - And That's Bad

I'm glad Jacoby Ellsbury is hitting on a regular basis - I really am - but I get a little nervous when he lets loose with quotes like this one:

If you’re fast they’re not throwing you many balls. They don’t want you on the basepaths. As a fast player, as a leadoff guy, they’re not going to pitch around me. It makes it tough to walk. If you go up trying to walk you get down in the count. If the pitch is there you have to be swinging at it. You can’t be taking (good) pitches just to walk.

On the surface he's right, of course: if Mark Bellhorn is complimenting you on your ability to take pitches, you're going to be looking a strike three an awful lot, and that means you won't be on base to grab steals and score runs.  But Ellsbury is taking things too far: by taking the mindset that he can't wait for pitchers to miss, he's running against the philosophy that's made this team's offense so effective: the Sox take pitches.  They run deep counts and wear out pitchers.  They care so much about OBP that their broadcast network includes it in the onscreen stat line.  Having a lead off hitter who uses both his words and his actions - he's got 12 walks in 50 games - to speak to his ignorance of this philosophy is a problem.  Here's hoping he realizes how much of a problem soon.

Remy Speaks

Jerry Remy hopes to be back in the NESN booth soon. But don't take it from us. No sah. Listen to him fah yahself:

http://tweetmic.com/p/os3f19s10rl

Get better, Remdawg. We miss your cackle and your ribbing of Don and his gorgeous suits.

[Image from The Remy Report]