The Boston Red Sox Day Off

In honor of the late, great John Hughes: "Billy Traber, you're my hero." As much as yesterday was bad piled on terrible piled on really effing craptastic, at least we don't have to go into tonight with a devastated bullpen.

Of course, that may not matter so much, because winning the game of baseball requires scoring runs, and right now, that does not seem to be Boston's specialty. They can get men on base - Chamberlain gave up seven walks, for crying out loud, and didn't have a 1-2-3 inning all night - but scoring them seems to be another matter. To put it another way, the telling numbers for the Boston offense last night were not the eight hits, twelve walks (twelve!), or six runs, but the fifteen men left on base and the .143 (3 for 21) batting average with runners in scoring position. In the end, I had to turn the game off before it was over, because as it turns out, the only thing more frustrating than watching your team get shut down by superior pitching is to watch them squander scoring opportunities like a compulsive gambler burning through his kid's college fund.

As for Smoltz, I'm sympathetic to the pleas for his removal from the rotation, but who, exactly, is going to pitch in his place? The only non-used starter on the 40 man roster who seems remotely qualified is Michael Bowden, who's pitching well in Pawtucket, but isn't exactly tearing things up in a way that suggests he'd be an instant hit in the majors. Paul Byrd seems a more likely successor, but 38-year-old pitchers who haven't thrown all year can't just dive right into professional competition. By trading away Masterson and relying on Smoltz to pull through, the Sox have made their bed - let's just hope that if that bed is as full of broken glass as it seems, it doesn't cut us too much.

Pitching: It's a Problem, But it Could be Worse

Crap in a hat. A few years ago, I have run screaming for the hills - or the ridge in Prospect Park; I'm in Brooklyn, after all - at the idea of facing the Yankees in the Bronx down a key member of the line up. Now I'm just slightly nervous. Shocking the Yanks at home seems like a possibility - particularly after the embarrassments the Bombers have suffered at the hands of the Sox this year - and I'm sticking to my optimism unless something bad happens this evening. In the meantime, let's talk pitching.

There's a sense of panic in the press about the state of the back 3/5ths rotation, with quotes like "a 2-5 record and 7.74 ERA in its past three trips through the rotation" being bandied about like they're signs of the Apocalypse. If there's another Boston Massacre this weekend those fears could - could - be justified, but right now they're just short sighted, for a few reasons:

1. The problem isn't Penny (or even Buchholz, who's had one terrible start, one shortened start, and two quality starts) so much as it is Smoltz. Penny's started 21 games this season; he's given up five runs or more four times, and he's had two starts where he's pitched less than five innings. Remembering that he's both an experiment on the cheap and a fourth or fifth starter, I can't see any reason to complain about what he's brought to the table this year. Last night was just a poorly-timed deviation from the pattern. Smoltz, on the other hand, has only given up less than five runs on two out of his seven starts, and those were against the AAAA teams in KC and Baltimore. Unlike Penny, he's also had almost no run support, so his bad days look that much worse.
   
   
2. Experiments or no, imagine how bad things would be if the Sox hadn't signed Penny and Smoltz now that injuries have put us in our time of need: we'd been looking at 2006 all over again, with the corresponding overexposure of young talent unprepared for the big stage. I'd much rather have veterans like Penny and Smoltz out on the mound than watch the Sox bring up Bowden a year or two too early or try to convert Bard into a starter mid-year. These guys were hired to be insurance and they're providing it, much like Paul Byrd will be if his climb up from the minors proves successful.
   
   
3. Wakefield and Matsuzaka might not be on the world's fastest healing schedules, but it's likely they'll be back before the season is over. It sucks that they're both out at such a critical time in the season, but I think - and yes, I'm about to concede the title to the East - that the Sox have the ability to hang on long enough to take the Wild Card. Time to step things up, boys. Let's start with taking down Cletus the Hutt tonight.
   

Bad Moon Rising

ALCS Game 3: Boston Red Sox 1, Tampa Bay Rays 9

Due to the circumstances of the day, I ended up listening to the game rather than watching it. In retrospect, doing so was probably the best decision I made all day, sparing me from what were no doubt the shrill cackles of Chip Caray as he and his broadcasting fellows presided over one of the uglier post-season losses I've had the displeasure to witness. Instead, I slogged through the wreck with the dulcet (and by dulcet I really mean high pitched but still welcome through nostalgia) and laconic tones of Joe Castiglione, supplemented by partner of the day Dale Arnold. It was Dale who pointed out the full moon rising over Boston, giving the night - and this post - its theme.

And oh, what a theme. Jon Lester picked one of the worst days possible to have his first shaky moments in months, surrendering twin bombs to the Devil-enchanted Rays and opening up a gap that was as steady as it was insurmountable. Life disappeared from the Fenway stands, as the faithful watched in disbelief as the man who seemed near to claiming the throne of pitching god stumbled and fell. Like Icarus, it seems that Jon Lester flew too close to the sun, scorching his wings with the burning rays of immortality. Or maybe he just had one of those bad days at the office. Either way, neither he nor relief effort Paul Byrd could do enough to keep the Rays off the board.

Would that the offense could have retained their stride from Saturday and kept the Rays' staff in similar straights! Unfortunately, the full moon's curse hit both sides of the equation, pulling the fangs of Boston's hitters in the cruelest way possible: a hit almost every inning, a run scored but once. The heart of the order got on base once and struck out five times, moonstruck into awful, swing-and-a-miss silence when needed most. It wasn't a pleasant scene.

So we'll go into tomorrow with Wakefield on the mound and the Rays nammering for blood, swarming hungrily like clouds of biting insects hungry for flesh. If the Sox follow past form, they'll surrender that flesh (and another loss) one more time before they have the moment of realization, the head-alignment moment where they start playing a game at a time and don't stop winning until they've steamrollered their American League opponent and whatever motley crew the senior league offers as a token sacrifice on the way to World Series victory. I don't expect history to keep repeating itself, but if the Sox want to avoid the early exit sign now flashing in blinding neon light on the road ahead, they'll need to end this flirtation with the bad moon's curse and get back into the game.

For No One

My mind does ache. And now, a breakdown of the game, in the form of a mental debate:

• The negative: It's after 1 AM, I have to get up for work tomorrow, and I don't even have a victory to make the exhaustion worth the trade.
• The positive: Yeah, losing is no fun, but we're still ahead two games to one with one more in Fenway and we made the Angels eat through their entire bullpen to get that win. If K-Rod or Scot Shields even looks at a baseball before some time next week, their arms will probably fall off.
  
  
• The negative: But we had so many good chances! That first ill-begotten lead, later on when Ellsbury only failed to take second because he's too goddamn fast, later on after that when Ellsbury struck out looking because the ump had some sort of chip on his shoulder or vision impairment that kept him from seeing a ball a foot out of the zone and the winning run would have walked home in the next at-bat...
• The positive: At least we were efficient about it. Four runs on thirteen baserunners is a lot better than the five runs on 21 baserunners the Angels had to offer. We just have to get to tomorrow's starter early and we're golden for another trip to the ALCS.
  
  
• The negative: We were beaten by Howie Kendrick and Erick Aybar, the very definitions of FAIL in these past three games. I'd feel better about losing to Groucho and Harpo than those two.
• The positive: Francona might have been better going to Byrd than sticking with Javier Lopez for a full inning, but the bullpen did a great job: they kept the Angels off the board for seven innings without forcing the Sox to pull in one of the starters they might need for tomorrow.
  
  
• The negative: Beckett looked like reheated ass on the mound tonight. This was not the post-season Josh Beckett to which I am accustomed.
  
• The positive: No, but tonight's frustrations were a team effort. We'll shake 'em off and get 'em tomorrow.
  

Bring Forth the Jays

A few statistics heading into thes pivotal/not so pivotal (all depending on your answer to the question: how badly do you, as a Sox fan, want the Sox to win the AL East?) games against Toronto:

• As a club, the Boston offense has team splits of .221/.291/.399 in the Rogers Centre. Those aren't their worst overall numbers, but they're among the worst for the number of games played.
• Over the same time period, the pitching staff has compiled a 7.10 ERA in the Rogers Centre, almost a full run worse than their next toughest assignment, Rangers Ballpark. Some of it's been pretty wretched luck (BABIP of .316), but I knew there was a reason why I start thinking about the detention center on the first death star every time the Sox play a series in Toronto. I'd so rather see these games happening in the Band Box of Eutaw Street.
  
• Paul Byrd has a 3.93 ERA and a 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio in 34.1 innings in the Rogers Centre. His 0.96 WHIP ain't too shabby, neither. Score the man some runs and we just might win tonight's game.
• Dice-K has a 3.79 ERA, a 3.71:1 strikeout to walk ratio, and a 1.21 WHIP over 19 innings on the Jays' home turf. As he somehow keeps managing to win games this year while expending more pitches than the Fed's sent out dollars in corporate bailouts (a topical joke - how clever), I probably shouldn't be worried about Sunday's outcome.
• Jon Lester's stats in Toronto are stab-me-in-the-eye terrible and I refuse to discuss them.
  

Paul Byrd and the Survival of the Fittest

Does Bobby Kielty know something we don't? Last August, he signs a deal with the Sox and ends up a hero in the World Series. This year, after obtaining his release from the Paw Sox in July, he resurfaces a month later by signing a deal with the AL Central-leading Twins.

Word just came out that the Indians dumped Paul Byrd on the Sox for cash or a player to be named. Byrd's 37 and having a subpar year, but as ESPN points out, he's won his last four appearances - with an average Game Score of 62.5 (which is excellent) no less - and he's got a solid 4.06 ERA in Fenway over 31 innings. In other words, I like where this idea: cheap acquisition who might do some good in the back of the rotation.

Next question: Does the Byrd acquisition mean Buchholz is finished in the majors for the season, or that the Sox think Wakefield has more shoulder damage than they've let on? I don't think so; I think this trade is part of a larger strategy. With Wakefield's injury and Clay's spate of ineffectiveness, Boston has two open rotation slots in the middle of a playoff run. Wakefield is out for two starts, but Buchholz has the opportunity to redeem himself, Byrd has the opportunity to establish himself, Colon has the chance to return to form, and one of the many minor league callups (be it Zink, Pauley, Bowden, or Hansack) has the chance to step up and make a mark in a fluid situation. It's more of a survival of the fittest type of pitching arrangement that gives Boston some options in a time of weakness, the opportunity for retreads to put up solid numbers for a future a contract hunt, and for the Sox to show off younger talents to up their trade value rather than a definitive changing of the pitching guard.