We're Gonna Win!

At least Baseball Prospectus says so. And damned if they didn't call how terrible the Mariners were going to be last year. Anyway, the projections say we're supposed to beat out the Yankees by a game in the win column, setting up a playoffs where we host Oakland for the division series while the Wild Card-winning Yankees play the Indians in Cleveland. Expect 2009 to be another year when the AL East proves its superiority to the rest of baseball: at 92 and 70, the third-place Rays would three other divisions and come in second in the other two.

Heck, much like the Athletics, I think we should just call the season now.

Worried About the Rays? Hell Yes.

I do love those Red Sox South games. Apparently Jason Bay does, too.

Here's a classic case of "Do as I say, not as I do." Unfortunately, it seems like the Shelton Little League team didn't apply that helpful dictum to their celebrity phone call...

Wicked Good Sports' Rich Levine posted an article yesterday wondering whether or not Red Sox Nation is preparing itself to worrying about losing the AL East to the Rays. Beyond the tough phrasing (who gets ready to worry about something? My mother is a chronic worrier and even she doesn't get ready to worry about something: if she finds something that concerns her, she worries about it. End of story.), there's the fundamental question: when do we start worrying about the Rays?

Let me answer Rich's question with a question of mine own: when were we not worrying about the Rays? Robin may have laughed at me at the time, but I called Rays in third before the season started, with the caveat that they could take second with a strong bullpen showing and some weak competition. Well, guess what happened:

1. Three key members of the bullpen (Wheeler, Howell, and Balfour) have been pitching out of their minds this year. Balfour in particular has been absolutely ridiculous: 6 runs in 39 innings with 57 strikeouts, for a gaudy ERA+ of 309. As a team, their bullpen has held opposing batters to an OPS+ of 87, which in relative terms is like having a team full of Julio Lugos.
   
2. The Yankees are flops so desperate they're bringing back Carl Pavano. The Sox are - as ProjoJo.com charitably puts it - so full of question marks that it's tough to tell how they'll hold up in the post-season, carrying around a .453 road winning percentage like a lodestone around the neck.
   

Even if you wrote off the predicted numbers, signs of impending apocalypse should have entered the brain after the Rays swept the Sox the first time in St. Petersburg, and full-on concern should have appeared after the second sweep a few months later. The Sox haven't been particularly good road team in 2008 (understatement of the year), but getting blown out by what's clearly a good team in two straight sets should be a sign that the Rays are a threat. So yeah, I'm worried about the Rays. I've been worried about the Rays all year. I'm pretty much assuming they'll win the East, because they took two key injuries without losing stride and I look forward to another run with the Wild Card, even though surrendering the AL East may well mean a first round blowout on the road. Get used to the idea, Rich: in 2008, the Rays are a very real threat.

The AL East: Ego and Super Ego, Revenge of the Bad Picks

So once again, Eric and I are gonna go head to head and discuss the AL East. His opinions are the ones based on numbers and graphs and junk… mine (Robin) are in italics and are correct.

After my AL West preview generated so much positive energy and because I revel in the idea of creating as much controversy as possible (you’re a doof and think the A’s are gonna do better than the Mariners), I've once again decided to use Baseball Prospectus's depth charts as the basis for my AL East preview. Don't like it? (Nope!) The comments await your written scorn. (Why wait? I’ll skewer you here!) Let's get started:

Fifth Place: Baltimore Orioles

Don't look now, but the Orioles are still terrible. Fortunately (or unfortunately - as a fan I like more competition, but as a Sox fan I'd like it to be somewhere outside of the AL East), they're taking steps to fix the problem: trading Tejada and Bedard for 10 players almost guarantees some sort of payback down the road, and the O's built in some insurance, too: after Brian Roberts (who's also heavily rumored to be heading somewhere National), off-season acquisition Adam Jones is the team's best hitter, while Luke Scott and George Sherrill will do a serviceable job filling holes in the outfield and in the bullpen. But all of these small changes won't make the Orioles winners any time in 2008: when your best starter is Daniel Cabrera and his projected WHIP of 1.47, forecasting a baseball-worst 66 wins and 96 losses in the tough-as-nails AL East doesn't seem like too much of a stretch.

Hmmmm, he started strong. I agree that the Orange Bird boys have “jack and squat” and even those guys aren’t hitting better than .210 this year. I think Baltimore is going to be in a “rebuilding year” for the next decade. Trading your best big name hitter (Tajeda) and best young pitcher (Bedard) in the off-season is a great way to stick it to the fans with the Cal Ripkin tattoos. I expect the Royals to laugh at this crew as they pass them in win totals.

Fourth Place: Toronto Blue Jays

No doubt you're now confused: you're probably wondering how the Jays could fall to fourth place when they made more improvements to the potent (if injury-prone) 2007 edition of their club. While it's true that David Eckstein and Scott Rolen might be improvements over Troy Glaus (maybe in terms of grit?), the Blue Jays still lack the offensive punch to score runs, and their predicted OPS and SLG numbers paint a very clear picture of placement in the run-happy East. Combined with the expected 4+ ERAs of fourth-fifths of their starting corps, suddenly a fourth place finish for the Jays doesn't seem so far fetched.

Here we go. The only thing you are right about here is your first sentence: I AM confused. How is this team going to slip into second to last place? They have an ace in Halladay, they are getting B.J. Ryan back from injury and this could be the year that Burnett puts together a healthy season. I expect these guys to finish second with hope for the future. I can’t believe this is your 4th place team… who did you pick to win the NCAA tourney? Portland State?

Third Place: Tampa Bay Rays

In the decade since Major League Baseball put a baseball team in the middle of a body of water, the hapless Rays have never finished above fourth place, and have only avoided the cellar once, in 2004. So what are they doing in third place in 2008? New year, new name, new ballgame, baby. Seriously though: after years of ridiculously effective farm development with nothing to show for it, things are finally starting to fall into place for the Rays. Carlos Pena will have a breakout year batting cleanup, and supported by Crawford and Upton will anchor a lineup strong enough to generate the type of offense that would garner them second place in a several other divisions. On the rotation side of things, James Shields and Matt Garza will both put up very respectable numbers, and Scott Kazmir will have the kind of dominating year that will almost guarantee he'll be in pinstripes (or maybe red socks?) in a few years. Unfortunately for Tampa, the Rays still haven't solved their bullpen issues; Troy Percival isn't the kind of closer you need to anchor a relief staff. If they address that problem, they could very well push their way to second place, especially in a weak year.

For the love of all that is holy… it’s the DAMN RAYS! Yeah they got their name changed from a killer fish to a sunbeam, but they still play in an oil drum in Tampa and they still are gonna be a joke. Kazmir is starting the year HURT and even YOU pointed out that Percival the Horrible is going to attempt to close games for them. Like most rational people, I don’t see them doing this well… but I think I am going to get a bit irrational when I read your next pick.

Second Place: Boston Red Sox/First Place: New York Yankees

Normally I wouldn't combine two finishing spots, but this year's edition of the biggest rivalry in sports promises to be the best we've seen in a few years. Off the field, Hank Steinbrenner has taken up the Boss' fallen torch, wading into the fray with a host of inflammatory comments picked up by a gleeful media. Is Steinbrenner a blow hard? Sure, but the Sox/Yanks rivalry has been missing someone with that kind of outspoken attitude (to put it euphemistically) for a while, and I'm glad it's back. It was getting tough to hate the Yankees for a while, and we really can't have that. In the clubhouses, both Boston and New York are relying heavily on a group of young players to fill vital roles, creating an element of uncertainty. Will Pedroia flop in his sophomore year (the magic eight ball says no, but don't look for him to be quite as big of a powerhouse this year, either)? Will Ellsbury and Joba Chamberlain live up to the incredible promise they showed last year? How about Buchholz and Lester, or Hughes and Kennedy? Are they rotation ready?On the plus side, all of these side plots feed into two teams who should keep their race as close and interesting as a fan could ever hope. Unfortunately for us Sox fans, though the offensive numbers for Boston and New York are nearly equal, and though the Sox will have the better group of starters and the better closer by Value Over Replacement Player, they're still expected to give up more runs than the Yankees. In the end, those additional runs will spell six fewer wins, relegating Boston to second and a fight with Detroit for the Wild Card.

I don’t even know where to begin. I think I’ll start with a quote from Billy Madison:

“…what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever
heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to
anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is
now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have
mercy on your soul.”

Whew. Now that I’ve got that off my chest, we can continue. The Yankees are done. Call me a homer, call me a hater, call me whatever… but the Yankees have had their time in the spotlight and now it’s time to move on. Someone tell this New Boss (same as the old boss) that his words are hollow and fall on deaf ears. They are a third place team with JUST over 80 wins. The vets are too old, the rookies are too green and the depth is just not there. They have 4 guys that are better off being DHs (Giambi, Matsui, Damon, and Abreu) and that leaves Melky Cabrera and Shelley Duncan in the outfield… not exactly Mystique and Aura. They have a young unproven pitching staff in a division that is hyper competitive and a bullpen… that beyond Joba… is a disaster. But sure, GIVE them first place…

Meanwhile, the Red Sox are the Champions of the World. They are the incumbent and deserve to be treated with some damn respect. It’s idiotic to think that they will be fighting for the Wild Card with the Tigers… because BOTH of these teams will be winning their divisions. The Sox have a deep bullpen, grade A starters and hitting that will be even better than last years Championship team. Ortiz is healthy now, Manny is in great shape and this Jacoby guy you may have heard about is going to be a phenomenon. Yes the injury to Schilling and the start in Japan is worrisome early on (even though they seem to be rock stars in Japan), but this is a group of guys who have proven that they can win even in the roughest situations. I don’t want any flack from the stat heads that I respect… but you can stick your VORP up your ass. The Sox with 96 wins… win the division. Now beating the Tigers in the playoffs? That’s another story…

The NL Central: Letters of the NL Central

This week's preview of the NL Central comes courtesy once again of Yankee Mike, who analyzes the strengths and weaknesses (mostly weaknesses) of the National League's most interesting division in letter form.

Pittsburgh Pirates: 65-70 wins

Dear Pirates season ticket holder,

It is that time of year again: time to break out the checkbook and renew your season tickets to your Pittsburg Pirates. Look what you have to be excited about: You get to follow the Pirate lottery, and see who we decide to trade by midseason. (Jack Wilson and Jason Bay both have value). Also, look how we improved this offseason. We didn’t didn’t decide to sign any random veterans this offseason, which opens space for Nyjer Morgan, Nate McLouth and Jose Bautista to play and maybe have some success. The top of our rotation is solid enough with Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny, and while you’ve never heard of either of them, trust us, they are pretty good. Our bullpen also isn’t totally terrible with Damaso Marte, John Grabow, and a few other guys no one has heard of but somehow manage to get the job done. It’s true that we might struggle to score runs - Bay’s help in the middle of the order is Adam LaRoche and Xavier Nady, after all, and the top and bottom of the order doesn’t get much better - but hitting a baseball is hard, and our players try their best. Also, remember not to panic, things will get better, even though we rank as one of the 5 worst farm systems in baseball.

Assuming our new GM isn’t a moron, and our owner will spend some money, it may seem like we’re a few years from being relevant. Maybe we won’t contend at all this year, which will give us an excuse to blow up the team and rebuild. For our long term potential of success we ask our fan base to not hope for a .500 record through our first 50 games to take away all temptation of trading for veterans. Take heart Pittsburg fans, the Steelers training camp is only a few months away, but until then, spend some time at the ballpark with us, your Pittsburg Basement Dwellers…I mean Pirates.

Sincerely,

The Pirates Sales Staff


St. Louis Cardinals: 70-74 wins

Dear every player, fan and employee associated with the St, Louis Cardinals,

I am writing to inform you your bill is passed due and now is the time for collection. Because you won the World Series two years ago as an 84 win team, you have thrown the scales out of balance and now it is time to return things to order. Consequently, we have decided to take the following actions:

1. Your best player (Albert Pujols) now has an elbow injury that will sideline him for the year if operated on, and although he says he can play, currently cannot extend one of his arms fully.
   
   
2. Your best pitcher (Chris Carpenter) underwent Tommy John surgery last July and is out until at least midseason, and possibly will not return until 2009. Your second best pitcher (Mark Mulder) has not even begun to throw batting practice yet, and has not faced a live hitter since last July.
   
   
3. We have decided to have your middle infield consist of Adam Kennedy and Caesar Izturis. Enjoy the combined .250 BA, 50 RBI and eight home runs.
   
   
4. We have decided to saddle you with the following outfielders: Rick Ankiel, Skip Schumaker, Ryan Ludwick , Scott Spiezio, Josh Phelps and Colby Rasmus (who will be a fabulous player in a few years). Please pick three to man your starting outfield spots.
   
   
5. With Mulder and Carpenter out, we have decided to grant you Braden Looper, Kyle Lohse, Joel Piniero, Anthony Reyes, and Brad Thompson to fill out your starting rotation. Enjoy the quality pitching.

To show that we are not all bad, we did grant you Albert Pujols, Adam Wainwright, and Colby Rasmus, who will provide entertainment. Plus, we removed Scott Rolen from town, removing LaRussa’s temptations to go out drinking and driving. Enjoy Troy Glaus and all of those DL trips!

Sincerely,

Karma


Houston Astros: 72-76 wins

Letter to a therapist:

Doctor,

Lately I have been feeling very conflicted, like two different parts of my brain (one smart, one stupid) are fighting for control. I don’t know what I’m doing anymore (and no one else has been able to figure it out either). Here’s what’s happened:

First, I traded some middle of the road prospects for Miguel Tejada. This should be a good move for me, as Tejada should put up huge numbers in Minute Maid Park, although reports out of Spring Training thus far suggest that he has about as much range at short as Robin and might not be able to play a full season at the position.

Next, the dumb side of my brain kicked in, and I let Adam Everett go after the Tejada deal instead of keeping him as insurance in case Tejada can’t play short. Then my smart side kicked back in, and I traded Brad Lidge and his Pujols-battered psyche for a centerfielder - but then I followed that deal up by signing another centerfielder (Darin Erstad) even though we have nowhere to put him. Then the smart side put together a lineup that may actually score some runs, with Tejada, Berkman, and Carlos Lee providing power in the middle, and possible contributions from Wiggington and Hunter Pence. True, Kaz Matsui probably won’t hit outside of Coors field, and no one seems to know what Michael Bourn will do, but we’re in the National League; we could do worse.

Unfortunately, the bad side of my brain took over building the pitching staff: I have an ace (Oswalt), a third or fourth starter (Wandy Rodriguez) and three fifth starters (Backe, Williams, and Chacon), which adds up, at best, to a mediocre rotation. Our bullpen isn’t much better: we have Doug Brocail as the top setup guym but the rest of the bullpen had WHIPs last year of 1.44, 1.40, 1.38 and 1.64. I did sign Jose Valverde at the back of the bullpen as the closer, but I’m pretty sure the warring sides of my brain have messed up my team’s chances of competing until I can work this problem out. Please help.

Sincerely,

Ed Wade, Astros GM


Cincinnati Reds: 81 wins with upside

Dear Mr. Dusty Baker, Manager, Cincinnati Reds,

We realize you have been in the Major Leagues a long time, and successfully managed to ride Barry Bonds to a World Series. However, we feel that we must make the following points about handling the Reds this year:

1. Veteran players are not always better. You have Joey Vatto, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, and Johnny Cueto all sitting there, ready to play, get some Major League experience and give you some serious upside potential. I’m sorry, Corey Patterson and his .304 OBP is not the solution to your lead off troubles, nor is 38 year old Scott Hatteburg the correct answer at first base. Please, please, please play the kids and see what happens.
   
   
2. You need more than 2 starters to win over the course of a season. Yes, Aaron Harang is one of the best pitchers no one knows about, and Bronson Arroyo does a good job in the National League. As much talent as Bailey and Cueto have, asking them to be a combined reliable number 3 starter is a stretch, which leaves you with Matt Belisle and his 1.44 WHIP and 5+ ERA. We’re sorry, that isn’t going to get it done.
   
   
3. Yes, Francisco Cordero is a solid closer, but getting him the ball are the likes of David Weathers, Bill Bray, Mike Stanton, and Gary Majewski; not exactly a shut down bullpen. Remind us again why you spent 46 million dollars on Cordero when your team will never hold a lead to hand him the ball?
   
   
4. We hope you’re feeling blessed, because you will have to outslug people to win, and to do so you need a healthy Griffey Junior, a repeat year from Brandon Phillips, and improvement from Edwin Encarnacion. You’ll also need to actually play Joey Votto and realize that Corey Patterson is a black hole at the top of your lineup.

Please sir, we beseech you: do not fall into the veteran trap; go for the youth!

Sincerely,

The Concerned Fans in Cincinnati


Milwaukee Brewers: 85 – 90 wins

Dear Magic Eightball,

Please grant me the answers to the following question, so that I may know my beloved Brewers will do this season.

1. How many starts will Ben Sheets make? If he makes 30 starts, the rotation with Jeff Suppan, Yovani Gallardo, Save Bush and Carlos Villanueva looks pretty good. With Sheets on the DL it looks slightly more ordinary.
   
   
2. How good will the bullpen be? On paper, it is one of the better bullpens in baseball. Eric Gagne, David Riske, Derrek Turnbow (when he throws strikes), Salmon Torres, and Guillermo Mota all have histories of success, but bullpens vary wildly from year to year. How will this group perform?
   
   
3. Which of the young guns will take a giant leap forward? Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart, and Ryan Braun all have shown some serious offensive potential, and if they continue to build on that success, this could be a very dangerous lineup, especially since JJ Hardy, Bill Hall, and Mike Cameron fill out the other slots in the order nicely.
   
   
4. Which will be higher, the combined batting average of Tony Gwynn, Jr. and Prince Fielder, or the combined weight of their fathers, Cecil and Tony Gwynn, Sr.? Not really a baseball question, but one that Vegas should definitely take bets on.
   
   
5. Who will win the most sausage races: the bratwurst, the polish sausage, the Italian sausage, the hot dog or the chorizo? Will the hot dog be able to defend his 2007 title? Inquiring minds and odds makers need to know.

Sincerely,

Bernie Brewer, Brewers Team Mascot


Chicago Cubs: Beyond winning and losing

Dear Baseball Gods,

We realize you are very busy this time of year, but please, hear our impassioned plea. We have been suffering for 100 years since our last championship, and now they are trying to rename our beloved Wrigley field to something like the Maxi Tampon Center or something. The ownership has finally done the right thing, adding Kyusoke Fukodome to fill the void that was right field. Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez on the corners of the infield can both hit, and Alfonso Soriano has more talent than most people could wish for. Carlos Zambrano anchors a good a rotation with Rich Hill, Ted Lilly, John Lieber and Ryan Dempster, giving us easily the deepest rotation in the NL Central and maybe the best top to bottom of any National League team not named the Padres. Even the bullpen could be good, assuming you in your wisdom prevent Kerry Wood’s arm from falling off and keep Bob Howry and Carlos Marmol anywhere close to what they were last year.

Please also grant Lou Pinella the wisdom not to hit Soriano and Theriot one and two ahead of Lee and Ramirez, so the middle of the order actually has guys on base when they come to bat. Finally, please give the Orioles the wisdom to realize that they’re beyond terrible this year, and trade us Brian Roberts so we don’t have to rely on Mark “Definition of Average Player” DeRosa.

We have endured 100 years of losing and the Curse of the Billy Goat; we watched Bartman tip that ball, and we suffered as Mark Prior and Kerry Wood get hurt year after year. We watched in 1984 and 1989 as we blew leads in the NLCS and we watched last year as the Diamondbacks swept us out of the playoffs. On paper, we have the best team in the NL Central; please in your wisdom let the standings reflect that statistical truth at the end of the season.

Sincerely,

Every person in Chicago, minus all those stupid White Sox fans

The AL West: Weak is the West

I'm not exactly a slave to statistics, but for this preview we'll pretend I am, because it lets me make predictions based on someone else's science. In this case, "someone else's science" are the predictions of Baseball Prospectus, encapsulated in depth charts the company has put together for 2008. However, it's not cheating, exactly: I'm looking at their numbers and analyzing why the American League West will stack up in a slightly new order this year, and throwing in some surprised commentary along the way. Let's do this.

Fourth Place: Seattle Mariners
This pick surprised me, too. Or maybe it just surprised me, and no one else. Anyway, I figured that the Bedard trade, which gives Seattle a second quality starter, plus a quality closer like J.J. Putz has to be more than enough to give the Mariners third place, with some hopeful looks at second. And it would - Seattle's projected runs allowed far outstrips those of third-place Texas - but there's one problem: the Mariners field some pretty anemic hitting. Not just any anemia, either: we're talking myelophthisic anemia, where a disease gets inside your bones and starts killing bone marrow, Rambo style. In fact, Baseball Prospectus predicts Seattle's offense (as measured by the Runs Scored statistic) to be so bad, it's not only the worst in the American League, but second worse in baseball, beating out the Giants by a mere 34 runs. A long way to fall from last year's 88 and 74 second place finish, but that number isn't too surprising when your offense's (offensive) Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) averages out at a crappy 11.4, and your two offensive stars are Ichiro and Beltre. Enjoy the cellar, fellas.

Third Place: Texas Rangers
Somewhere out there, there's a joke about pitching that has the Texas Rangers' staff as the punchline. Twelve seasons removed from their only playoff win, the Rangers continue to struggle to find the pitching they need to match the consistently strong hitting they've fielded over the years. This year is no different; anchored by *snort* Kevin Millwood and his stellar predicted VORP of 16.5, the Rangers are setting out to become the antithesis of the Mariners by posting the second highest runs allowed in the majors, right above the Rays. It's too bad, because a decent Texas team would probably blow the rest of the AL West out of the water. However, there's one consolation: by outslugging the Mariners to end up just one full game higher in the standing at the end of the season, the Rangers will become one of those beloved exceptions to the baseball maxim about pitching always beating hitting.

Second Place: Oakland Athletics
Athletics manager Bob Geren may not think the A's are in rebuilding mode - or at least he won't admit it - but if there was ever a year where the retooling philosophy of Moneyball underlies team-building decisions, 2008 is it. Slated to finish the year two games under .500 (80 and 82) after last year's injury plagued 76 and 86 finish, the A's have a surgically repaired third baseman (who's fallen so far in the esteem of fantasy owners, by the way, that he went in the reserve round of my league's draft. Ouch.), the mighty Joe Blanton, a converted reliever (Justin Duchscherer) as their third pitcher and an average team age of somewhere in the neighborhood of your local little league.

Of course, that's been Oakland's way for more than a few years now; 2008 just happens to be a particularly extreme example because it feels like Billy Beane had his annual fire sale before the season started, instead of halfway through. 2008 won't be the year that the A's return to prominence, but barring any major upsets, I expect them to overtake Los Angeles in 2009.

First Place/Division Champion: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Baseball on the West Coast seems like it's going to have a particularly weak year in 2008, with division winners in both leagues posting win-loss records that would merit second or third place finishes anywhere else in the country. The Angels epitomize this weakness: their projected runs allowed isn't bad - in fact, compared to the top two teams in the other divisions in both the AL and NL it's pretty good - but once again, their offense rests on Vlad Guerrero and whoever the Angels find to bat behind him. This year it's Torii Hunter, whose projected VORP of 25.1 puts him in the lower middle of cleanup hitters in the American League, but the story is the same: Vlad, Howie Kendrick, and a cleanup hitter do not an offense make. The Angels will win the division - their strong array of starters and the consistently powerful K-Rod will see to that - but they'll once again be a first-round knockout for whichever team is fortunate enough to draw them as an opponent.

The NL East: That's Weird, This Division Only Has Three Teams: NL East Preview

Continuing our series of season previews is Dave, a Mets fan who pulled a me in reverse, growing up in New York and moving to Boston. He offers his take on the NL East, where it sounds like another hard fight to the finish is brewing.

I’m writing this being still bitter a die hard Mets fan, but I shall try to be as impartial as possible in my assessments. The top three teams in the NL East this year are a toss up, with the big ticket bout of the Mets and Phillies, and the under the radar Braves with a possibility of an upset. All the factors for each of those three teams rely on the usual factors, consistency and injuries. As for the other two teams in the division, they’ll not win the division, or even tease for the wild card, but instead battle it out for who finishes last, or perhaps provide a spoiler for a team trying to make the playoffs (Read: Marlins and Nationals take a combined 5 of 6 games from the Mets to end the season/break my heart).
5. The Marlins (Nationals)
Really you can put either team here, but the Nationals have more recognizable names on their team, and a potentially better offense, so they can have the number four spot. This is a roster of “Who are you?” names, and a few players who provide a good spot on your fantasy baseball team. They have some players who have performed well over the past two seasons, but with the loss of Miguel Cabrera – who gave the other teams someone to pitch around – those players’ numbers may likely go down. The Marlins also dumped off Dontrelle Willis to the juggernaut Tigers, which may have seemed really dumb two years ago, but may prove to be a good move if he continues to get shelled now in the more dominating offensive league. The players who provided momentary sparks for the Marlins are Dan Uggla, Cody Ross, Josh Willingham, and of course, Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez definitely proved to be the player he should be, and would get even more recognition if he played on a team that mattered.

The pitching staff is a slew of young names from ex-Tiger Andrew Miller to Rocky Nolasco. They had a seemingly good arm in Anibal Sanchez throwing a no hitter a couple years ago, but he’s been bitten by an injury bug and missed a ton of last season and out probably until the All Star break. Their closer, Kevin Gregg, who put up 32 saves last season, is the highest paid man on the roster with a salary of $2.5 million for this season.

4. The Nationals (Marlins)
The Nats’ biggest acquisitions in the offseason Mets castoffs: drug pusher Paul LoDuca and potential spark plug Lastings Milledge. With LoDuca you know what you’re getting: a guy who hits for little power but a consistent average until about July or August. I didn’t hate LoDuca for a majority of his time on the Mets, but always was perplexed why teams didn’t just stand on second base when he was at bat, as more than sixty percent of his hits just rolled up the middle. The “let’s stand on second base Paul LoDuca shift,” might drop his average by 100 points.

The outfield is Washington’s big question mark: they have Wily Mo Pena, Austin Kearns, Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes. If Wily Mo continues into this year like he did in September, and Elijah Dukes and Milledge become the players people expected them to be, this could be a slightly dangerous little outfield platoon. This will not translate to winning games. Ronnie Belliard, Ryan Zimmerman and Felipe Lopez make up the projected infield, then the battle everyone is talking about at first base: Dmitri Young versus Nick Johnson. I like Dmitri Young better, but they’re probably going with Johnson.

As for the pitching staff, pick a name, there’s a good chance you don’t know a lot about any of them, or did, but forgot they still played baseball: Shawn Hill, Jason Bergman, John Patterson, Matt Chico, John Lannan, Tim Redding, and Ryan Wagner. Good luck, guys.

3. The Braves (The Sleeper)
Now on to the teams that will compete. With all of the hype landing on the Phillies and Mets, the Braves may just sweep in and pop one or both teams out of the division lead/wild card. This may be a stretch to say, but I feel you shouldn’t ever underestimate a team that managed to hold its division for the decade of the ‘90s. If the players, mainly the oft inured pitching staff, managed to stay healthy all year, this could be a nice year.

We’ll start with the pitching, the source of their bygone magic. The Maddux, Smoltz, and Glavine era was a thorn in the sides of much of the National League ten years ago, so the Braves have brought back Mets scapegoat Tom Glavine for a bit of a reunion. Glavine has become a solid number three starter; he’s not going to dominate you, but he’ll make all his starts, win you at least 10 games and have an ERA around 4.00. Smoltz has proven to still be effective coming off a 14-8 season and an ERA of 3.11. He hasn’t really shown any reason why those numbers may not continue. The rest of the pitching staff is the question mark. Tim Hudson has been inconsistent when not injured, and Mike Hampton has been nonexistent for the past 2 seasons. Hampton was relatively effective over the last seven seasons when healthy, but health for him has suddenly become a sad rarity. I’d give him about three to five starts before he’s out for the season. The fifth starter spot is a toss up, but probably will land on Chuck James, who quietly put together a so-so year last year, wining 11 games (but losing 10) and posting an ERA just over 4.00. If he pitches the same and the offense is consistent, look for those numbers to go up a bit.

The offense has its mixed bright spots. The Braves replaced Andruw Jones with Mark Kotsay for an offensive and defensive wash, but Jeff Francouer and Brian McCann are real deal hitters, and with Mark Teixiera could create a dominant trio if all three click at the same time. If you add in the still consistent (when healthy) Chipper Jones, the Braves have a very effective lineup that is not getting a lot of press, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them in the thick of the race come September. Of course, because they’re the A-Rods of baseball, they won’t get it done in the post-season when it matters, and if they make the playoffs, they probably won’t add to the club’s World Series trophies.

2. The Phillies (The Team to Repeat)
Jimmy Rollins made his inane prediction last year and I was at opening day at Shea when he dropped a ball and his error opened the door to a rally and a seven run inning, embarrassing the Phillies and striking up a “Jimmy Rollins!” chant from 50,000 fans. Those were the days…and then by season’s end he’d made all New Yorkers look like idiots, swiping himself an NL East title, an MVP, and the ire of Mets fans for the remainder of his career. Well, Jimmy Rollins will be back, and will surely be the same effective player. Toss him in there with Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, and the Phillies have quite an offense. They got the injury plagued Geoff Jenkins patrolling their outfield this season, and still have Pat Burrell out there as well, probably set for another season of 25+ home runs and an average slightly above .250.

The weakness of the Phillies lies in their pitching. Cole Hamels and Boston’s favorite Brett Myers are going to win you games. Kyle Kendrick showed signs of greatness last year, but is getting battered this spring, while Adam Eaton won a few games but sported an ERA over 6.00. Then there’s Jamie Moyer, who is still winning games despite being 75 years old. The biggest presence in the clubhouse this spring so far may be that of Anna Benson, whose husband Kris is battling for a fifth spot – and I’m sure she’s offered to sleep with someone else if he doesn’t pitch well (Remember when she said if he cheated on her while on the Mets she would sleep with every man in the organization, right down to bat boys and equipment managers? Isn’t it just amazing how many Mets were trying to get Kris Benson drunk and flirty with other women that year?). The inconsistency of their starters may hurt them and I actually may give the Braves the advantage on that one. The Phillies bullpen was already a question mark depending on what Brad Lidge came out to close games for them. He didn’t let us find out and instead got injured for a few weeks, but claims he’ll be ready for opening day. If Lidge can consistently save games, they can keep winning them, but with this potent offense he may not actually get as many opportunities to do so.

1. The Mets
The Mets were dominant last year and looked to make me happy and charge into the postseason. Then it happened: the worst month that I – and baseball – have ever seen. The worst collapse in baseball history has been hanging over the Mets since October. Before they fleeced the Twins to bring a guy named Santana into camp, they may not have hit this top spot. Yes they did give away some potentially great prospects, but still kept the outfield one they liked best (Fernando Martinez), and got arguably the best pitcher in baseball.

Santana will be the ace of an already capable staff of pitchers. John Maine is now even slotted to potentially be the number 2 starter, after having the best spring of any of the pitchers so far and his 15 win season last year. He and Oliver Perez had similar seasons in 2007, Perez also getting 15 wins and 10 losses, but having a lower ERA of 3.56. Then there’s Pedro Martinez. He made only five starts last season, won three of them and posted a 2.57 ERA. He asked for the ball on the last day, but Willie Randolph decided to not risk overworking and re-injuring him. This did not pan out as hoped.

The ageless El Duque is trying to be the 5th starter, and may or may not lose the job to young Mike Pelfrey, who has yet to prove himself in the majors. The Mets’ biggest pitching weakness comes in the bullpen. It was overworked and just looked tired at the end of the year last year, and coughed up runs and more runs like they were trying to give the games away, with September seeing the Mets blow two 4 run leads in 2 days. Aaron Heilman is an adequate reliever and Duaner Sanchez is returning after a year off from surgery. Billy Wagner is still closing games, but they have become a lot more nerve wracking then in his earlier days. He’s not yet John Franco’s “let’s put two or three guys on base and then close the game” status, but he’s moving towards there.

The Mets offense remains the same. The collapse perhaps cost David Wright the MVP, and there’s no reason to think he will not be a 30-30 guy again this season. Beltran has played well, and if Reyes doesn’t hit .197 in September again he is a spark plug at the start of the lineup. Luis Castillo is not the speedy guy he once was and worked last season, but is already plagued by injury to start this year. Carlos Delgado couldn’t do much last season in terms of getting on base, but they won regardless. Moises Alou is effective when he can play, Ryan Church is a good outfielder who might even eclipse expectations for Lastings Milledge, while Brian Schneider is an upgrade in defense and a downgrade in offense.

All in all, on paper the Mets are the team to beat in the division, but it all comes down to injuries. Each of the top three teams have guys that can easily make or break the entire team’s season with a ticket to the disabled list. We’ll see who is healthiest and who is first come September. Watch it be Washington.

Snakes On a Train to Glory: NL West Preview

Next up on the list of 2008 MLB previews: Yankee Mike's thoughts on the NL West. It doesn't sound like the weakest division in the junior league will offer anything new this year, but watch out for those Diamondbacks...

San Francisco Giants – AARP All-Stars

The Giants are going to be pretty bad; I think pretty much everyone in the modern world will agree with this. However, normally when you have a bad team you look for a few bright spots. Let’s go down the checklist for the Bond-less Giants:

1. Good young position players who might make an impact: well, the Giants’ current infield (Aurilla, Vizguel, and Durham, plus a third baseman to be named later) is a combined 112 years old (no, that isn’t a typo), and the projected outfield of Aaron Rowand, Randy Winn and Dave Roberts has an average age of 33 – and they’re all signed through 2009.
   
   
2. No really terrible contracts while we rebuild: Well, Barry Zito is making $126 million; Rowand got $60 mil for 5 years; and Randy Winn, Dave Roberts, and Bengie Molina are all signed through 2009. Honestly, I’m not sure exactly what Brian Sabean was thinking, although it’s possible he thought he gets a discount if he has players eligible for social security…

The only real bright spots on this team are Matt Cain, and Tim Linceum, two very talented young starters who have the potential to be excellent. However, unless they each win 30 games, the Giants are pretty much guaranteed to finish last in the division.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Youth Movement…Please?

Look at that lineup of stars: Rafael Furcal, Nomar, Jeff Kent, Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre, with Jason Schmidt and Derek Lowe starting; that’s the makings of a solid team, right? Wait, you mean it’s no longer 2000?

…

This team might be in trouble.

Sarcasm aside, the Dodgers do have some serious talent coming. Matt Kemp (OF), James Loney (1B), Andy LaRoche (3B), and Russell Martin (C), plus pitchers Clayton Kershaw (best pitching prospect in the minors) and Chad Billingsley could all be big time players. However, the Dodgers went out and hired Joe Torre, who – though he’ll do a great job with the LA media and inspire player love – is very loyal to veterans and tends to not play rookies, which is what the Dodgers really need him to do.

The Dodgers are banking on a shaky likelihood of an Andruw Jones resurgence and the even shakier durability of Nomar, Kent, and Jason Schmidt, but probably have enough talent to win somewhere in the neighborhood of 75-80 games. If the youth gets to play, toss in some exciting upside and maybe some development for future season.

Colorado Rockies – Legit Threat or a Fluke Run

The Rockies’ insane run at the end of last season was sparked by a mixed group of veterans and kids throwing their brains out. The question is: was that success a flash in the pan, or are they solid ML starters? Francis at the top is good enough to get by with, and Cook will eat innings, but the Rockies need their younger starters to give enough quality innings to be successful. The success of their staff is dependant on what Ubaldo Jimenez, Jason Hirsh and Franklin Morales contribute. Jimenez held opponents to a .228 batting average in 15 starts, while Morales threw 8 solid outings down the stretch (3.43 ERA, 1.22 WHIP .241 BA against), and somehow I doubt those sets of numbers will be repeated for an entire season.. Hirsch didn’t last 20 starts, and Cook checked out in August, which really makes me concerned about the Rockies starters.

The bullpen, however looks pretty good. Hopefully, they will pull a video game move and use Manny Corpas closing and keep Fuentes setting up (The Rockies started clicking when they stopped blowing leads last year right when Fuentes got hurt). Luiz Vizcaino will benefit being back in the NL and should help stabilize the back of the bullpen, but if you’re a Rockies fan, make sure to take the time to enjoy that hanging slider flying 700 feet the other way in the mountain air or the walk of a hitter in a big spot. After watching Vizcaino for a year, both events are coming: you have been warned.

Offensively, I really like this team. Troy Tulowitzki can flat out play, even if you ca’nt pronounce or spell his last name, and Hawpe and Holliday (who will be in the MVP debate again in 2008, and a Free Agent soon after, thanks to Scott Boras) are legit middle of the order bats. Helton can still hit, Atkins can hit and if Taveras can get on base he is a nightmare of the basepath. That is a seriously deep lineup, especially for the NL, if they find any kind of pitching beyond Francis the Rockies will a force to reckon with this year. With that said, I expect the pitching to regress and the Rockies to be at most an 85 win team.

San Diego Padres – A Tale of Two Teams

The Padres have an outstanding pitching staff. Peavy (consistent Cy Young candidate) and Young at the top are a legit 1-2 combo. Maddux just keeps finding ways to win 12-15 games (he’s a machine). The combination of Randy Wolf, PETCO Park, and the national league should toss up some decent numbers, and Mark Prior for $1.5 million could be the year’s biggest steal if he gives the Padres anything in second half of the season. Hoffman is a great regular season closer, and they somehow manage to find success in their bullpen, regardless of who they toss in there. If you put a good offense behind that staff, the Padres would compete in the NL.

The offense is the problem, though: Apparently the Padres management forgot you need to actually score runs to win baseball games. Personally, I love their management strategy: Let’s take 2 guys with diminishing power (Jim Edmonds and Brian Giles at ages 36 and 37) put them in the best pitcher’s park in the NL, and ask them to be middle of order power threats. Seriously, how is this good idea? Khalil Green may or may not be a 30 HR a year guy, and Adrian Gonzalez is a legit bat at first base, but with minimal power in the outfield, the Padres would need a big bat at third, which means that Kevin Kouzmanoff will have to a giant year for the team to compete offensively. Everything is going to have to click for the Padres to score enough runs to win. Given their pitching, I am thinking around a .500 season for the Padres, with the possibility of putting up 88-89 wins for the third straight year if the offense hits enough.

Arizona Diamond Backs – Younger Brothers Strike Back

Arizona has two things going for them they’re very young and very good. Getting Haren from Oakland makes them scary, with probably the best 1-2 pitching punch in the baseball: Brandon Webb is a stud, and Haren had a 3.09 ERA in the AL. Doug Davis drops back to third in the rotation, and if the D-Backs get anything but sneers from Randy Johnson, they have a legit 1-4 in the rotation, with the added bonus of Robin’s latest man crush, Micah Owings. The biggest question mark is in the bullpen; the Diamonsbacks have Chad Qualls and a bunch of young arms, and are hoping 2 or 3 step up and become effective. I’m guessing Juan Cruz starts the season closing.

The youth and talent movement continues in the offense. Connor Jackson is a legit bat at first, Stephen Drew has struck a blow for younger brothers everywhere by becoming better than his older brother (Sorry JD, that 1 homerun doesn’t make you good) – and 27 year old Chad Tracy at third base is one year removed from a 20 HR, 80 RBI season. If he gets hurt, Arizona has Mark Reynolds, who hit .280 (.350 OBP) last year with 17 HRs and 60 RBIs; a fine option off the bench.

In the outfield, Byrnes stole 50 bases last year (yes, I was shocked, too) and while he’ll probably regress some, he’s still a productive player. Chris Young hit 32 bombs last year, and with a bit of strike zone control (.295 was his OBP, not his average) becomes a legit power threat. Last, but not least, there’s the most talented guy on the roster, 20-year-old Justin Upton. Unlike his brother BJ, he can play defense, and he’ll be this team’s best player by 2011. Overall, the Diamondback won 90 games last year, and added Dan Haren. I have no qualms about naming them my pick in the west, and my pick to represent the NL in the World Series.

Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid: AL Central Preview

We begin our tour of the 2008 MLB previews with DC's predictions on the AL Central. As you'll see, 2008 is looking like another "win it all or head on home" years for the rest of the American League, with plenty of competition for both the top spot and the Wild Card, not to mention spoiler action from the rest of the division.

The AL Central was one of the most active divisions in all of baseball this winter. The Tigers and White Sox both made more splashes than a pool full of 8 year olds surrounded by skeevy, van driving pedophiles and, according to all the Mets fans I know, the Twins made a trade. Even the Royals signed a couple of guys who are better than your average little leaguer.

Last season the Indians tied the Red Sox with the best record in the American League and only lost home field advantage because of head-to-head record. The Tigers were also a force for most of the season and would have gobbled up the Wild Card had it not been for a late season collapse. This year Cleveland’s team is basically a mirror image of itself and the Tigers are one of the most improved in baseball. The result is a division that is gearing up for a tight race and possibly two teams in the playoffs. How will the rest fare? Here’s what my crystal ball says:

Last Place - Kansas City Royals
Off Season: The Royals signed some bona fide free agents this winter. They took some strides to sure up their bullpen with Ron Mahay, acquired a formidable backup catcher in Miguel Olivo and replaced the craptastic Odalis Perez with a veteran starter, Brett Tomko. They also took a shot on Jose Guillen despite a possible steroid backlash and on Yasuhiko Yabuta, the latest question mark from the other side of the big tranquil pond.

Pitching: Last year Gil Meche showed everyone where they could stick their criticism of his contract by posting a respectable 3.67 ERA and a .263 batting average against. Unfortunately he only managed 9 wins to go with his 13 losses. But let’s be fair, he was the ace of the Kansas City Royals. That’s like being the head of the Ewoks: yeah, you’re the best they have, but you’re still leading a bunch of possessed teddy bears with no discernable strengths. Rounding out the Royals staff is the second year Brian Bannister (pretty great last year as an undrafted rookie), Zack Greinke (amazing comeback after suffering from Social Anxiety Disorder), and Tomko. There’s some talent here and the three youths may benefit from Tomko’s experience.

Lineup: This truly is a collection of young talent and role players with a couple of veterans sprinkled in. Alex Gordon (24 years old), Tony Pena Jr. (26), Billy Butler (21), Mark Teahen (26) and David DeJesus (28) may all become really good players. Unfortunately it will most likely be on other teams.

Bullpen/Bench: Just like every other small market team, the Royals’ weakness is depth. Other than Olivo at catcher, they really don’t have anyone on their bench worth mentioning. Similarly, other than potential stud closer Joakim Soria, the bullpen is bad enough to make KC fans want to drown themselves in those beautiful fountains they have in Kauffman Stadium.

Fourth Place – Chicago White Sox
Off Season: As usual GM Kenny Williams had a difficult time taking his finger off the trigger this winter. Honestly, this guy is like the Billy the Kid of baseball! Has he ever been happy with the team he has? This year five guys (including Jon Garland and Darin Erstad) are gone, replaced by the likes of Nick Swisher, Octavio Dotel, Scott Linebrink, and our beloved Orlando Cabrera.

Pitching: The rotation is anchored by perennial workhorse Mark Buehrle, along with Javier Vazquez and Jose Contreras. Unfortunately, Buehrle’s seven consecutive 200+ inning seasons may be getting to him, Vazquez is a classic National League pitcher and Contreras looked extremely hittable last year (an understatement). The rest of the rotation is rounded out by a couple of prospects who have yet to be bitten by the successful pitching bug.

Lineup: This is pretty much the same story as the pitching with different. If this lineup has any pop it will have to come from some guys who are so long in the tooth that the tooth is actually dragging on the ground (Jermaine Dye, Paul Konerko, and Jim Thome). These guys are breaking down and consequently their physical ages are much older than their actual ages. I do like the spark that Cabrera will provide, but during Spring Training he better get a lot of practice handing his helmet and gloves to the base coaches and strolling to his position.

Bullpen/Bench: The White Sox do have some significant 2007 experience with Jerry Owens and Josh Fields on the pine. Owens goes around the bases faster than Taco Bell goes through a human body (32 SBs last year) and Fields has some power (23 HR), but they can’t score many runs buried behind Dye and Joe Crede. The bullpen has a solid closer (Jenks) proceeded by a coveted set up man (Linebrink). Other than that, this pen is like a who’s who of suckage.

Third Place – Minnesota Twins
Off Season: To say that the Twins had a rough winter is like saying a kick to the junk with a steel-toed boot might sting. Things started off really well when they scored promising youngsters Delmon Young and Brendan Harris from the Rays for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett. Things went down hill from there and in the end the Twins gave away Johan Santana for some prospects and a bag of yard tools and failed to resign Torii Hunter. For those of you keeping score at home, that’s twp “face of the franchise” types (Santana & Hunter) and three-fifths of last year’s starting rotation (Santana, Garza, and Carlos Silva) gone. They were able to add some nice pieces – Adam Everett, Livan Hernandez, Mike Lamb, and Craig Monroe – but overall this winter was a total disaster. Have fun opening up that new stadium next spring, fellas.

Pitching: The success of this team is going to be based entirely on the development of their young pitchers. Four of the starters on this team are 26 or younger and Livan Hernandez will have to be half mentor and half 15 game winner. If Francisco Liriano doesn’t bounce back from Tommy John to be an ace then Twins fans will start counting the days until hockey season in June.

Lineup: This is a young team with some serious talent. With Torii Hunter leaving, Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer gain ownership of this team (not literally; if they really owned the team then they’d probably have spent some money on pitching). The Twins also have two mashers in the outfield (Young and Michael Cuddyer) and solid prospects up the middle (Harris and Carlos Gomez). They could use a power bat for DH though. Somebody give them Sammy Sosa’s number.

Bullpen/Bench: As usual the Twins’ bullpen is one of their biggest strengths. Is it just me or do these guys always have a nasty relief staff? Joe Nathan continues to be one of the most automatic closers in the league, and the set up guys are all guys you would trust to protect a lead. However, if the starters can’t eat up enough innings then all bets are off. The bench also looks pretty solid. Craig Monroe and Nick Punto are both serviceable big leaguers and will probably see some platoon time if either Adam Everett or Carlos Gomez stumble.

Second Place – Cleveland Indians – WILD CARD
Off Season: If you think the Red Sox decided not to do anything this year then hit your knees and thank God you’re not a Cleveland Indians fan. They lost next to nothing and they gained even less. Like the Royals, the Indians decided the relievers in this part of the world are so terrible that they went to the Land of Rising Curveball to bring in Masahide Kobayashi. All I can say is that I hope he’s related to the guy who wins all those hot dog eating contests. They also went out and traded for Jamey Carroll to be a super-sub.

Pitching: The strength of this team is absolutely, one-hundred percent, without a doubt the starting pitching. Last year CC Sabathia won his first Cy Young Award and Fausto Carmona gave Red Sox fans nightmares. These guys treated the league like Sean Connery treats Alex Trebek. Throw in “Mr. Consistency” Paul Byrd and a serviceable Jake Westbrook (baseball-reference.com lists Bronson Arroyo as a similar pitcher), and you’ve got a staff that will give you a chance to win everyday.

Lineup: This lineup is all about having the right pieces. They have a superstar (borderline super-duper star) in Grady (and his ladies) Sizemore, two home run and RBI guys (Martinez and Pronk), a couple of talented yutes (Franklin Gutierrez and Ass-dribble Cabrera), and a bunch of solid puzzle pieces (Blake, Peralta, Garko and Michaels). You can win with that. You just can’t win enough to take this division.
(Sidenote: All bets are off if the Indians management somehow convinces Casey Blake that every game is last year’s playoff series against the Red Sox. Seriously how many times did that guy get on base? I may have been drinking but I feel like he got like 50 hits off of us in like 5 games. By the end I wanted to light his beard on fire.)

Bullpen/Bench: The bench on this team is pretty solid with Carroll backing up the entire infield and OBP master David Dellucci as the outfield sub…you know, if you go in for that whole stats thing. The Indians’ middle relief was strong last year and should be again this year. However, having Joe Borowski closing games may prove to be like finishing a movie starring Jack Nicholson and Robert DiNero with a meaningful, heartfelt speech by Jimmy Fallon.

First Place – Detroit Tigers – PLAYOFFS (WORLD SERIES?)
Off Season: This team spent the winter going from good to terrifying. Out go big name players like Omar Infante, Chris Shelton, Sean Casey, Chad Durbin, and Mike Rabello and in come Denny Bautista, Jacque Jones, Edgar Renteria, Dontrelle Willis, and this guy Miguel Cabrera (maybe you’ve heard of him). That is like upgrading from a certificate from your local community college to a PhD from Harvard. Oh, and for all of you who keep saying Cabrera is eating himself out of the league, think about this: in Florida the guy had no veteran leadership and nothing to play for, Detroit doesn’t exactly have that problem. Can’t you picture Pudge and Sheff knocking Young Miguel’s lunch tray out of his hands and saying something like, “You can eat when you look like a ballplayer again.”

Pitching: All I’ve heard recently is that Dontrelle isn’t going to be good in the American League. Unfortunately for the rest of the league, he doesn’t need to be. The guy is going to be the number three starter in this rotation, not the ace, with two studs at the top of the rotation (Verlander and Bonderman) before you even get to Willis. Then they hit you with Kenny Rogers, who is quickly reaching “ageless wonder” status and finish up with Nate Robertson who is one of the most solid #5 starters in the league.

Lineup: Pitchers everywhere are waking up with cold sweats thinking about facing this lineup. The Tigers start All Stars at seven of nine positions (and it’s only a matter of time before Granderson joins the crowd). They have speed, power, and on-base guys. They have youthful exuberance and veteran leadership. They have one of the top leadoff hitters in the league, two of the best number two hitters (which means one will probably bat seventh) and a three-four-five of a star (Magglio Ordonez), a potential Hall of Famer (Sheff) and a budding super-duper star (Cabrera). But don’t worry, they only follow all of that up with a sure thing Hall of Famer (Pudge). Ugh, let’s move on before I start ripping shots.

Bullpen/Bench: Not only does this team have a dominant lineup, but they have the perfect medicine to combat the dreaded injury bug: a stacked bench. Brandon Inge has been really good for a couple of years, and Jacque Jones will probably be in a platoon in left with Thames. Ryan Raburn hit .304 in 138 at bats last season and Vance Wilson is a serviceable backup for Pudge. If this team does have one weakness, it’s the bullpen. Joel Zumaya is reportedly ahead of schedule in his recovery from injury, which could turn out to be the X-factor. The rest of the pen looks fairly pedestrian and Todd Jones makes Joe Borowski look like Catfish Hunter. But then again, Todd Jones has never been a dominant closer and yet managed to save 38 games last season. Even as a weakness, this bullpen doesn’t scream fatal flaw.

Overall
This division looks very good. The Tigers and Indians should both make the playoffs and the Tigers have a definite chance at the World Series. The bottom three teams aren’t good enough to compete for the division but could definitely play spoiler if any teams involved in a race has to play them late in the season.

Ladies and Gentlemen, Boys and Girls....Prediction Time is Here

Spring is in the air - in New York City, at least, where the temperature hovers between fifty and sixty degrees and the weather favors either damp or wet - and in addition to bringing enough Red Sox news for Robin and I to write about something more than once every blue moon (and we do apologize for that), it means the time of predictions has arrived. We'll be doing our own roundups of each division in the coming weeks, but today I commend you to an outside source: the predictions of Paul SF at Yanksfan vs Soxfan. In his article, Paul takes a few different stats systems, checks them against the real results from last year, and then uses them to make a prediction about this year. It predates the Schilling injury/not injury, so his prediction of 100 wins - as the numbers predict Boston would have done last year - may no longer be accurate, but it's still interesting reading and doesn't get too heavy on the numbers.