Gaboriffic!

Hey, Kason Gabbard's back! For cash! The pitcher, who left for Texas a bit less than two years ago as a part of the trade that brought Eric Gagne to fame and fortune in Boston, is making his triumphant return to Pawtucket after flaming out at the major league level in spectacular fashion in 2008. Yesterday's Okajima miscues aside, the bullpen has become the rock upon which the Sox have built their current win streak, so Gabo likely won't find a home back up in the majors any time soon, but I like this move for two reasons:

1. Once again, we've gone from an embarrassment of pitchers to an injury and some questions. Having a backup with some proven ability can't hurt, particularly at a low price.
2. Anything that goes towards erasing the Eric Gagne tenure in Boston is fine with me.
   

Game 106: Beckett and the Big Man

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 3, Baltimore Orioles 5

Oh, Beckett...hoisted by the lone Bedard. There's a stat on Baseball Prospectus called Expected Wins, which acts a bit like the Pythagorean win expectation formula, in that it crunches some numbers and states where the pitcher should be in the wins column right now (as opposed to where they should be at the end of the year). It's an interesting stat to look at to see whether or not a pitcher is leading a charmed life, perhaps with a chance of a terrible comeuppance at some point in the future. Josh Beckett, who falls to 13 and 5 after tonight's dalliance with the mediocre, has an expected win total of 8.0. Yikes.

However, we shouldn't expect Beckett to come down to earth any time soon, at least as far as win totals go; he's outstripped his Expected Wins total every year since 2004 and combined with the above average bullpen aid and high run support he's benefited from this year, there's no reason why Beckett shouldn't keep winning games and end up somewhere between 15 and 20 victories in 2007, even if the numbers say otherwise. Stats are fun like that.

But moving on past Beckett's loss tonight, past the game-ending ground outs from Lugo and Pedroia (why you gotta swing at the first pitch, P-Dawg? Why you gotta hurt me like that?) that gave the failed rally an even bitterer taste, Wily Mo's "0 for 1 with a walk, this is how I rebound post trading deadline" style and the win of gaining Gagne, I want to give a special moment of praise to my man with the long bombs.

Tonight's offense for Boston came entirely courtesy of David Ortiz, who took two separate off speed pitches from two different pitchers into the no-man's land of right center for home runs, marking his 26th multi-homer game as a member of the Sox. For Big Papi, who hadn't hit a home run since the middle of July, everything looked in place: the smooth swing, the perfect connection, the weight landing on the front foot and dropping into place to propel the ball out of the confines and into the books. It makes me feel really, really good to see those elements fall back into place.

Deadline Dealing

Somebody help me out cause I’m a bit confused. Why are the Red Sox making so many moves right now? Are we in second place and nobody told me?

Maybe I’m wrong, but it seems that the Sox are making deals just for the sake of making deals… and that NEVER works out well.

Joel Pineiro to St. Louis for cash and prospects to be named

This makes sense. We weren’t going to call him back up and it was shocking to me he didn’t jump ship after we DFA’ed him. The Cardinals need another live arm in their rotation so this could work out for them. I just hope we got some young guy with some sort of upside.

Willy Mo Pena and Manny Delcarmen or Justin Masterson for Jermaine Dye

I don’t think this will happen now. The Red Sox really don’t want to risk pairing anyone with any projected value along with Wily Mo for Dye just incase Dye becomes a total bust (and he is looking pretty BUSTY). I know the Sox need a new 4th outfielder, but giving up too much doesn’t make sense at this point. If this happens (which looks unlikely) I hope Dye can show some shades of 2006.

Kason Gabbard and David Murphy for Eric Gagne

It’s sad that I’m praying for Gagne to block this deal with his no trade clause. This is basically a done deal except for that little fact. I guess it’s good to have a stacked bullpen… I didn’t think that was our weak point! Are they just adding strength to strength? Gagne is pretty good, but is it worth a guy like Gabbard and the potential of Murphy. This is something I see biting us in the ass down the line…

I guess we’ll have to wait and see.

Game 102: The Very Charmed Life of Julian Tavarez

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 14, Cleveland Indians 9

Everyone who picked up Kason Gabbard for their fantasy teams after the magic of his last four starts is probably feeling pretty foolish right now. Gabbard, who as we all know is now in competition with Jon Lester for the fifth spot in the rotation /pitching well enough so Schilling's return doesn't demote him back to Triple A did his best not to impress this evening, suffering a four run fifth inning freak out that had Francona worried enough - despite the 9 to 5 lead (go Manny!) - to pull the young southpaw an out before Gabbo could qualify for his fifth win. Was it bad? You betcha; the two run double and a one run single Gabbo surrendered after claiming his second out looked better than the final three batters of the night: walk, walk, hit by pitch. Control much?

Once upon a time, you'd call Kyle Snyder in to clean up these situations and eat up some innings until either the offense scored enough runs to make putting a 12 year old with a broken arm on the mound a viable option, or the game moved into the late innings and bringing in short relief made more sense. Time was, but that time seems to be no more; it's been almost ten days since we've seen hide or hair of young Frankenbronson.

Instead, we have our old pal Julian "JT Killer" Tavarez, who recently his inevitable return to the bullpen to make rotation space for the feel-good case of the year, Jon Lester. I can almost imagine JT Killer holding a bloodletting in the visitor's clubhouse of The Jake, scene of so much ritual magic, praying to the dark gods who gave him the 10 and 2 year for the Indians 12 years ago to let him have another shot at making a difference. The man's dedication to his team is truly inspirational and he repaid that trust with two and a third innings of best and the worst he has to offer. Did Ryan Garko fly out to end the fifth, killing the bases loaded threat? He did - and Tavarez made him do it. Julian also magicked up a one-two-three sixth, pitched around a throwing error by Lugo to pick up the first two outs of the seventh, entered the home stretch, you can make it, Julian...you can give up those four runs first, if you want to. No, really, it's ok: Wily Mo brought his good game for once and hit a line drive home run in the top of the inning.

So congratulations, Julian: you didn't pitch great and your offense totally bailed you out, but you pitched (literally) when it counted and you got another win. Don't let anyone say the Man keeps you down.

Game 99: Jon Lester, No Longer a Clubhouse Cancer

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 6, Cleveland Indians 2

The return of Jon Lester is the biggest feel good story of this Red Sox season. No, not just because Joel Pineiro was DFA’ed and Tavarez was sent to the pen… the man came back from cancer to play baseball! If that doesn’t make you sit back and say “wow” then you must have been completely desensitized by the millions of human interest stories that this has spawned. Actually, that may have happened. I mean this guy is basically Lance Armstrong without steroid allegations and Frenchman hatred. That alone should be enough to saint Lester.

Now combine that with the fact that he pitched pretty freaking good…

Yeah it’s amazing. He got into a few jams (highlighted perfectly with shots of his mother doubled over in the stands with her head in her hands), but like the Houdini he was last season, he managed to wiggle his way past the walks (the ump was AWFUL). Some well timed double plays and some HUGE strikeouts were all he needed to secure his first of what I hope will be MANY victories this season. Rejoice for the healed Jon Lester and take him to the hallowed halls of Sox lore. Move some bloody socks and Ortiz walk-offs… we’ll find some room.

Lester isn’t alone in this comeback parade. Timlin looks like he is officially back from the old folk’s home with another inning plus of solid relief, Delcarmen is back from his vacation of suck he had with the White Sox and the offense is back even without Papi (still resting the sore shoulder) and it’s all because of Manny swinging a big stick again and Coco hitting everything in sight (10 hits in 3 games). This is the Sox team I signed up for! 4 wins in a row baby!

So the win was great, and the story was great, and the atmosphere was great, but we need to realize this may not be a permanent thing with Jon boy. How long the golden child Lester will stay with the big club is uncertain. When Schilling comes back in August it will either be Gabbo or Lester sent down to make AAA starts cause it’s no use wasting either of them in the pen. However long it is, it’s great to have Jon “Tough as Nails” Lester back in the rotation. Just keep him away from Cheryl Crow and everything will work out fine.

Game 97: I Think That Chicago Deep Dish Pizza Gave This Team the Runs

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 11, Chicago White Sox 2

So in a game where the Red Sox score 11 runs… how is it that Manny (2 walks) and Ortiz (didn’t play but the MRI was clear on his knee) had NO HITS? Well thanks to the amazing offense from Coco, Lugo, Drew and Hinske the Sox were still able to score more runs then I ever could have hoped (even with the umps blowing the Lowell out a home call). I can’t verbalize how much I love seeing the dregs produce when the heavy hitters struggle. It’s like losing your wallet on the subway, but then finding three grand in the street.

Speaking of finding gold… is it too late to jump on the Kason Gabbard bandwagon? The only run the Pale Sox scored on him should have been unearned (awful fielding from Wily Mo, somebody him out of MY misery) and he allowed only 3 hits in 7 innings. Combine this with Schilling looking good in AAA and Tavarez running out of crazy magic, I think this means Julian gets sent to the pen while Gabbo is here to stay. Oh and I hope Tavarez doesn’t know where I live because he’d kill me in my sleep for saying that.

Finally, I am not 100% sure these last two games are complete signs that the Red Sox have found a way to turn the “we can’t score runs” thing around. Not to take anything away from the great performance of the lineup OR from the masterful work from Gabbo… but the White Sox suck. I mean they REALLY look awful and lost out there. Who the hell walks in 3 runs?? That’s madness. I’ll need at least a week more at this level and some other teams to test the waters with before I can start screaming about how we’ve turned a corner. But who knows? I hope this is the norm and not some fluke like Wily Mo’s grand slam earlier this year (I heard he’s on roids now! Somebody help me spread that rumor).

Game 92: Summertime...and the Living's Easy

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4, Kansas City Royals 0

Kason Gabbard throws a complete three-hitter, strikes out eight and doesn't allow a hit until the fifth inning? The Red Sox scatter so many home runs around the park they make Fenway look like a bandbox and do all of their scoring via the long ball? We must be playing the Royals.

Ok, that was a little harsh. Kansas City may be the perpetual cellar-dwellers of the AL Central, but they don't even have the worst record in baseball or even in the American League! Surely having old Gabbo out there making guys look silly really means something in the scheme of things and isn't just because he's facing the Royals, right? And the resurgence of Big Papi's home run swing, Manny going deep (perhaps in an effort to top Frank Thomas's record of most home runs against the Royals) and P-Dawg's might-mite drive into the Monster Seats; surely those are not just signs of a big dog taking down a little one, right?

Here's what I'd like to believe: that Kason Gabbard isn't a fluke with an abnormally high strikeout rate that will self-correct as he suddenly self-destructs, that one day he'll make a solid third or fourth starter for the Sox, or the trade bait to a killer acquisition that doesn't come back to haunt us. I want to believe that Manny's about to hit the hot streak to end all hot streaks, to stand and deliver the way he hasn't for the past month. I want to believe that Papi's hamstrings are no longer so hamstrung, that three doubles and two home runs in the past 21 at-bats are the sign of the hitting apocalypse for any pitcher unlucky to face him in the near future.

I want to believe these things because if last night was a trick of the easy summertime living and the Royals' facility for destruction, if Chicago comes to town to dominate and the Sox go to Cleveland for more of the same, or for (an even worse) mix of on-again, off-again .500 baseball, I'm going to be sorely disappointed. Not because of lost ground in the AL East, but because slipping into complacency as the Dog Days creep towards us means that the Sox have let the easy summertime living smother them. Good win, boys, but don't let the fire go out for a moment.

Game 81: Now Leading Off...A Hitting Renaissance

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 7, Texas Rangers 3

So something weird happened last night: Kevin Youkilis took the night off, after doctors told him his strained quadriceps wouldn't stopped nagging him until he took some rest. Of course, since Youkilis is a dirt dog and sports a beard powerful enough to hit home runs on its own, the doctors in question probably told the trainer to shoot Youk with a tranq dart to make the news easier (and safer) to pass on, but there he was, on the bench and out of the lineup just hours before game time.

Actually, that wasn't really the weird thing; what's weird was the result: Lugo goes from batting ninth to batting first and it actually seems to help. Lugo went 0 for 2 with two walks and a sacrifice bunt, but he looked a lot happier in the box, showing glimpses of the lead off hitter who hit .308 with a .373 OPS a year ago in Tampa Bay. If last night truly marks the end of Lugo's year-long battle with mediocrity, he'd join Pedroia, Drew and (I would argue) Crisp as the fourth Red Sox to experience a renaissance when thrust into the lead off role. There's an adage that baseball announcers will sometimes bring up about how a hit-and-run play can force a slumping player to start hitting again; maybe batting first for the Sox serves the same function. I certainly hope so, because it'd be nice to hold on to a shortstop for more than a season again.

The other result of Youkilis sitting for the night was the triumphant return of Eric Hinske, who did what he does best: score unexpected runs on unexpected hits. Pedroia and Manny may have been at the plate when the Sox scored their first four runs (hallelujah!), but it was Hinske who hit the bases-loaded triple that put Boston up with breathing room after Texas scored three runs to break up Gabbard's no-no bid in the fifth. The guy may not make much of an impression as a pinch hitter, but he does toss in the odd and wonderful surprise coming off the bench for a game.

One final note: Robin called me at the end of the top of the fifth to find out the score and pointed out that Boston has an almost perfect record when they score six or more runs in a game - last Tuesday's game is the only exception. "Only two more," he said, "and we're golden." I went and looked after Hinske's triple made things official: last night made 30 games Boston's won scoring six runs or better, which is almost better (point of pride) than every cellar dweller in the MLB right now. Now we just need to score six runs against nemesis Scott Kazmir tonight...

Game 76: Hail to the King, Baby

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 7, Seattle Mariners 8

Now I remember why having a decent bullpen is important: it keeps games from seesawing back and forth, like last night's toothless wonder. Sure, the Sox got to King Felix and his ineffective fastball early and often, keeping Boston in the game with six runs over the first six innings, but every time the Sox would establish a lead - or tie the game - Seattle had an offensive answer that kept this frustrating game going tit-for-tat far too late into the night.

Hernandez may have been nowhere near the dominating powerhouse he was on his last outing against Boston on April 11, but (once again) he still managed to outpitch Boston's starter, as the once glorified and exalted Gabbo...well, not to put to fine a point on it, but he sucked. Long and hard, with enough walks to turn the base paths into a treadmill for Mariners. Lord knows where the kid's command went, but it wasn't with him last night. However, according to the Herald, Gabbo will get another shot to prove himself again next week - Tito is not going to use the off day on Thursday to rejigger the rotation to cover for Schilling's second missed start. Having a ten game lead on the competition does give you the opportunity to experiment, I guess...

Speaking of Tito, what was up with his decision to leave MDC in for more than an inning last night? I know we're a bit short on relievers at the moment - a problem compounded by Joel Pineiro twisting his ankle in one of the more awkward ways possible - but MDC ain't no Kyle Snyder and his presence on the mound in the fifth made the bullpen look very, very thin. I'm a little surprised the Red Sox haven't called up another reliever to compensate, really - looking at the Sox pitching numbers against Seattle this year, poor pitching performance should now be the expectation, not the exception.

A Perfectly Sucky Storm

Not to raise the specter of panic, but Matsuzaka needs to win tonight. As this article in the Herald points out - and as I'm sure you've noticed - the Sox have alternated a win with a loss since May 18, mainly through a series of back-and-forth blowouts that speak to a slump amongst most of the starting pitching corps. I'd blame Robin - he's blogged all three losses, so he must be responsible - but unfortunately, that's just too convenient. Instead, what I think we really have is a perfect storm of bad luck:

First weather system: Josh Beckett and his trick finger. Beckett's injury sets up Gabbo's sweet outing on Sunday (or maybe Beckett's injury and the rain worked together), but they also put the *ahem* unproven Devern Hansack on the mound the night before. No Beckett injury and that Braves series becomes a sweep.

Second weather system: Curt Schilling. Deadspin stated yesterday that Curt hasn't looked the same since using his blog to apologize to Bonds, but I think the fault might be mine for calling him rock solid after the Clemens signing. Come to think of it, I called Beckett rock solid in the same post...new theory: this entire pitching slump is my fault. Regardless, Curt has not had a solid outing all month, in a hindsight-driven slippery slope that led to dreadful loss against the Yankees on Wednesday. Will Number 38 get so pissed at himself that he pulls out of his tailspin? We'll see on Monday, but I'm guessing the Indians are in for some trouble.

Third weather system: Tim Wakefield versus the Yankees. Three years ago, Timmy Knuckles owned the Yankees. These days, not so much. Wake's last two starts haven't been his prettiest, especially when held up to the shining light of his Toronto shutout on May 11, but they were against teams (Detroit and New York) who've made him look bad in the past. Next stop is Texas (also a tough outing, especially in Arlington), so we may be in for more disappointment. Of course, it's a knuckleball, so who knows what could happen.

Combine all of these elements and we get the losses of the past week from a formerly hot team, so while Beckett will be back next week, Schilling prepares for vengeance and JT Killer looks to keep doing his crazy game-owning thang, it wouldn't hurt to have another Dice-K win to get the ball rolling.

Game 43: The Strategy of Gabbo

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 6, Atlanta Braves 3

Tim Hudson? More like Tim Suckson...am I right? Seriously, though: Kason Gabbard's start yesterday was like finding a whole roll of cash in the pocket of a jacket you were about to throw away. The rotational shuffling that put Wakefield, Tavarez and Schilling in the line of fire against the Yankees and Gabbard on the mound to face the Braves wrote off Sunday's game as an acceptable interleague loss to save up for a good pounding of a division rival, a strategy that suddenly paid big dividends as Gabbo started striking out Braves with all kinds of nastiness. Seven Ks on the day, with the kill pitch alternating between curve ball, change up and fastball in a deadly trio that kept most of the lineup guessing through five innings. Although his appearance was a spot start, I'm willing to bet Gabbard will go back to AAA and dominate thanks to the confidence booster shot he gave himself yesterday.

Come to think of it, there may have been a second half to the Operation: Gabbo strategy: Tim Hudson has never pitched well against Boston, making a slug fest that would have been a saving grace to a bad Gabbard start more likely. In the event, the Sox kept up their history against Hudson and their torrid run production in the first inning (36 total so far, eclipsed only by the 42 they've scored in the eighth inning), loading the bases and scoring three on a Tek triple into the right field corner. That inning set the stage for the six run, eight hit, two walk beating the Sox administered to Hudson, putting Boston on top through the remainder of the game.

Taking a closer look at those run totals: if you've gotten the impression the Sox do their best work at either ends of a game, you're correct. Boston has scored 88 runs in innings 1 - 3 and 80 runs in innings 7 - 9, a difference that exists perhaps because Boston has played nine full innings only 28 times this year (we're at game 44, remember). The middle three innings lag behind at 64 innings, which has its own interesting correlation: the Sox offense does well against a starting pitcher the first time through the order and even better on round two, but slacks off pretty dramatically by the third time. I have no idea what it's happening, but the neat thing is that it's the exact opposite of what the lineup's done since 2004, so while the overall team balance between starters, relievers and hitters seems to be much better than in the past, this year's lineup is definitely its own animal.

Spot Starter

As I watched the Sox slowly break open a lead against the Storefront Indian and reliever Todd Williams yesterday, wasting enough offensive opportunities in the process to make the 2 - 1 final score seem closer than it should have been (by touchdowns), I was contemplating the continued presence of Kason Gabbard in this spring's starting rotation. First, some stats:

Over four starts this March, Gabbard's pitched ten innings, giving up five hits, three earned runs and four walks, while striking out seven. By way of comparison, he pitched twice as many innings as a starter in 2006, giving up more than four times as many hits, about twice as many earned runs, more than triple the number of walks but only striking out five more. Extrapolating his current performance to the same amount of time as he started last year, Gabbard's already doing better than last year in almost all of these categories - as a starter.

As we all know, though, the Sox have an embarrassment of starting pitchers right now, so I have a couple of theories as to why Gabbard continues to start games:

1. Tito is using Spring Training to give Gabbard some major league experience when the games don't count before sending him back to Pawtucket for the year. Kason is 24, so keeping him in AAA for another year wouldn't seem to hurt his development at all. This theory seems like the most logical to me - Jon Lester would probably do the same thing right now if he wasn't rehabbing his arm - but it's also the least amount of pure speculative fun.
   
2. The Sox are pitching Gabbard against major league hitters because they're looking to dangle him as trade bait for a closer if one of the off-season acquisitions/closer by committee doesn't work out. The closer debate continues to fascinate me, especially since DC pointed out that the Sox may be the only team in the past 6 years that won a World Series with their Opening Day closer. If this theory turns out to be more than just a conspiracy pipe dream, I don't see it coming true until the trading deadline.
3. Gabbard is pitching some of Schilling's starts against AL East teams (like Baltimore) because of Schilling's policy of never tipping his hat in Spring Training. The MASN guys were all over Schilling for that idea, by the way, but I can see Schilling's point - if you've got a few pitches based on deception, why give your opposition any more face time than necessary?

Whatever the reason, I'd say that if we see Kason Gabbard in a Boston uniform this season, we're probably looking at a second coming of 2006.