Forcing Rivera To Blow A Save Not Enough

Damn you, bullpen. Damn you, Theo.

Another impressive fight to win squandered by Papelbon and Oki last night in the Bronx killed whatever microscopic hope for making a wild card berth this year. Kalish and Hall steal a total of 4 bases on the best closer ever in the 9th and Mikey Lowell hits a sac fly to take the lead! That was awesome. But it was short lived.

Papelbon gives it right back. Oki walks in the winning run. UGH-mutha-freakin-UGH.

We had given up on the season a month ago, only to realize this weekend we were not mathematically eliminated yet. Hell, win out all the games and we had a shot, especially since the Sox had taken 2 of 3 in the Bronx and made Yankee pitchers look like minor league scrubs (and we had 3 more games at Fenway against them next weekend).

2010 was a very difficult year for this team, but they hung on just enough to tease us in this last week. I guess it's only fitting that I felt a twinge of what it's like again to have hope for this team. It's easy to blame the 19 DL injury moves for the demise of the team, but that is the most shallow of views. The starting pitching was only good from 2 of your 6 starters (if you count Wake in there which I do since he played enough). The bullpen was, well, we know it stunk up the joint. Management went cheap at the trade deadline and hopefully is banking on spending some cash and key trades in the offseason.

There are so many moving parts it's hard to know what this team will look like in 2011. But will it matter if 3 of the 5 starting pitchers gets knocked around weekly?

I sincerely hope Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre are given good contracts to play for the Red Sox in 2011 and beyond. They had impressive years and showed a lot of heart and character, and really seem like they fit in with the Youkilis and Pedroia grinder mentality. And don't forget Scutaro's fine year getting on base and knocking singles and doubles. I really like everyone surrounding the pitchers mound immensely.

I also think Kalish has earned an outfield spot. Drew was consistent, but not worth the coin he is being paid (at least he played a ton this year, so thanks for being stable).

I thank Lester and Buchholz for carrying the pitching burden this year, but am disgusted by Josh Beckett and John Lackey and their awful contracts. The bullpen is a total engima.

I hope Mike Cameron is gone. Happy retirement to Mike Lowell and Tim Wakefield (if that happens). I actually hope the Sox exercise their option on Ortiz. I think he deserves another year.

And lastly, I hope the Sox go and get a better trainer.

Go Twins! Rangers!

Expect Theo To Make a Relief Move

Recent history with Theo (as Gordon Edes of ESPN deftly points out) tells us he will do everything he can to get a quality reliever either at the deadline or during the August waiver period. Edes gives a very nice timeline back to 2003 of all the key relief pitching moves Epstein has made in his Sox tenure--many that were crucial pieces of playoff and World Series-winning teams--and moves that opened up roster spots for now-legends of Red Sox lore.

Edes reminded me of the Scott Williamson trade who had an amazing run in the playoffs in 2003 (and I'm still not sure why Grady Little didn't use him in place of Pedro in the ALCS game 7). He also reminded me of the Shea Hillenbrand trade to the D-backs that allowed David Ortiz to get more playing time. Don't forget about Myers in 2004 or Bradford in 2005 or Billy Wagner last year.

The problem is the team could have used one right before the West coast trip. The pen has a collective ERA of something like 4.44 (I read somewhere) and is the fourth worst in the league. You can't get to the playoffs with those kind of numbers.

With knowledge of how deeply invested the Sox are in starting pitching, the relief pitching has to be a real target. Can Theo stay that patient as close games are consistently being lost in the 8th and 9th innings? That debacle on Sunday with Oki and the pen was very troubling.

Some rumors are that Sox are courting Scott Downs of Toronto heavily (as are the Yankees). 

My fears about this road trip are almost completely true. Some good starting pitching has been there, but not for the bullpen. At least V-Mart and Hermida are back. Buccholz pitched very nice last night, getting out of jams and going pretty deep with only one early home run given up.

Ellsbury played in the Gulf league and is due back with the team next week. Hopefully guys forget all the BS with where he rehabbed and welcome him back.

Still, even with the win lat night, the Yanks and Rays also won (Garza, the bastard, threw a no-hitter), so they're still 8 games back. Not 9 games back, but too damn close.

Lackey takes the hill tonight in his former home stadium in Anaheim. Should be a bit surreal for him--especially after he drills one of his former teammates in retaliation of a Fernando Rodney fastball in Beltre's back after Ortiz hit a 2-run homer last night off him. The umpire was way too quick to warn benches last night and Tito could visibly be seen saying either to Rodney or the umpire (probably both) "F U C K You!"

That was awesome.

I am always leery of guys who go back to their old stadiums, so I don't expect much from Lackey tonight. He'll probably get a mix of cheers and boos, though since it's Anaheim, he's bound to have a strong Red Sox following. I've been to that place many times and the Sox fans come out of the woodwork in the OC for that series.

Time for tortillas as frisbees and loud chants of "Let's go Red Sox!" and, of course, death to the rally monkey.

Ugh: Who Will Be the Next Major Injury to this Red Sox Team?

Resiliency is about to get ludicrously challenged.

Friday: Pedroia fouls a Jonathan Sanchez pitch off a bone of his foot and lands on the 15-day DL. Despite whatever positive spin you might be hearing, Lil' Shit is on crutches and cannot put pressure on his left foot. Don't expect him back until mid-August. Maybe even September. By then, Sox could very much be out of the playoff picture. Sox brass are going to rightfully baby this injury.

Saturday: Clay Buchholz comes up gimpy running from first to second base a few minutes after he hit a single. Initial reports on him are that it's not too bad, but expect a start or two skipped.

So, along with Navajo Jewish Lawyer (Ellsbury), Josh Beckett, Jeremy Hermida, a day-to-day Mike Cameron, a gimpy JD Drew, and now Mike Lowell (who went on the DL this week to make room for Daisuke coming off the DL), Pedroia's injury is the worst kind of blow to a team in the playoff hunt. As Bill Hall told reporters over the weekend, Pedroia is the second captain on this team for the offense. He is a leader and motivational player who leads by example, and a very tough replacement for the 2-hole, though he did hit in the 3 hole on Thursday in Colorado where he had a HUGE game going 5 for 5 with 3 home runs.

Pedroia, who saw NESN broadcaster Don Orsillo in the clubhouse in LA on Friday, was overheard in front of reporters saying to Orsillo "“How many times did you say ‘laser show’ last night? You should start calling it the ‘rocket blasting show.’ ’’

All you can do is hope there are some teams with talented veterans looking to unload some salary at the trade deadline. The Sox quickly dealt for a cheap option and picked up Eric Patterson from the Oakland A's. Patterson can play second and the outfield, so he gives them some defensive versatility. The big question mark is whether he can hit. His career stats point to a streaky hitter. For the time being, Bill Hall, Patterson and Angel Sanchez--who the team called up from Pawtucket as well--will be jumbled around.

I hope JD Drew can get back in there soon and get his bat going. Beltre, Ortiz, Youk and Martinez have been playing well, but it's going to take a full team effort. That means you too bullpen.

[Image by Lucky + 13 via Flickr cc 3.0]

Hey, Look at That! Sox Are 2 Games Back (Oh, And Manny's Back)

We're midway through June in the year of our Lord 2010 and the Boston Redsox are 2 games behind the 2 best teams in baseball. By winning percentage as of today (.588), the team that plays in Fenway is the third best team in all of baseball. Woo hoo! Give us a bronze medal!

We got plenty of problems with the pitching staff and injuries, but I guess there is one interesting thing to say about how this team has been resiliently playing: Thank you, all-knowing, all-giving Jah, for interleague play! The Sox have been beating the crap out of teams like the Phillies and Diamondbacks with a strange combination of a banged up outfield, some grit and toughness from the bullpen, and a lineup that never gives up. Things are oddly clicking, and it's got to have Yankee and Rays fans sweating in their Underoos.

Seems like every other day someone is landing on the DL or getting a coritsone shot or having a hurt back and neck... So to be the third best team in all of baseball must feel really freaking good considering.

I'm mightily impressed by the bounce back and mental toughness of Lester, Buchholz, Scutaro, Beltre, Martinez and Ortiz. These 6 guys have been doing a tremendous job of being good when it matters. There have been many contributions, so not entirely fair to single them out, but for different reasons, these 6 gentleman stick out to me.

Lester is dominating. Buchholz is giving the team a chance to win just about every outing. Scutaro is getting on base consistently and scoring. Beltre is hitting the cover off the ball (and incidentally is the second hardest swinger I have ever seen next to Gary Sheffield). Martinez is a patient, methodical hitter who is not afraid to put pressure on the defense by getting on base and taking walks. And Ortiz is back to Big Papi status knocking balls to the deepest part of Fenway for home runs, but also going opposite field and hitting singles and doubles with regularity.

I shouldn't be gushing in mid-June, but I can't help it. A month ago we thought there was no chance in Hades this team was playoff bound, but with solid, consistent play, this team is showing it deserves a real shot.

Two things to note: First, Manny is back in Fenway, and while he will be booed in his at bats, I think he deserves to be applauded for the championships he was part of for Boston. Yeh, he's a flakey-bakey nutjob (and the way he left was downright retahded), but he's also one of the greatest and feared hitters ever to play the game.

Secondly, the Sox have called up triple-A prospect Felix Doubront for a start against the Dodgers tonight. This lefty has been pitching really well for Pawtucket , so I'm excited to see what he can do against the likes of Manny, Kemp, Ethier and the rest of a decent swinging, first-place NL team. Doubront moved from Portland to Pawtucket this year and in 12 starts for both teams is 6-1 with a combined ERA of 2.11.

[Image by Eric Kilby via Flickr cc 3.0]

Seeds of Sox Strengths Starting to Sprout

Pitching. Defense. Timely hitting. It's starting to sizzle a bit at Fenway in the way Theo and crew drew it up.

It's been doom and gloom in the baseball column of Sportstown, USA, but the last four games have me feeling a whole lot better than last weekend's meltdown at Camden Yards.

Last weekend's series sweep by B-more was a crying shame. Dice K had it working for four innings in his debut, but then, it became batting practice... It was awful to watch an already-dejected Wakefield enter from the bullpen only to let the O's think they were the Rays. Poor Wake. He may end up back in the rotation if Matsuzaka can't figure it out.

There were, however, two bright spots over the weekend. Two homers in one game from Ortiz and an improved Josh Beckett. Yes, they lost the game he pitched on Sunday, but Beckett pitched nicely: 7 innings, 2 earned runs, 0 walks, 6 strikeouts. Considering what it has been coming from the big Texan, I will take that all day long and then some.

Back at Fenway, it's been a very nice week of beating up on the Angels with the bats and letting the top starters do their thing. Last night, John Lackey threw the best I've seen all season. His fastball moved and it sunk. Lackey's line: 7 innings, 2 hits, 1 earned run, 2 walks, 12 ground ball outs.

Lester was dominate again: 8 innings, 5 hits, 1 run, 2 walks, 5 strikeouts. Buchholz pitched decently, though, he still looks very timid out there at times and gets rattled when there are men on base. His biggest issue in my observation is the same one Beckett has had this season: Throwing strike one. He was saved by crazy offense Monday night when the bats muscled up 17 runs (with Mike Lowell going 4 for 4 with 4 RBIs).

Buch's line: 5.2 innings, 4 earned runs, 8 hits, 3 walks, 2 strikeouts.

Other key things to note: Beltre and Scutaro are showing their value on both sides of the game. Beltre has had two home runs over the last few games (his firsts of the season), and has made some excellent plays at third. Beltre hit a bomb last night to straight away center (over the camera well)  in the 8th inning to give the Sox a 3-1 lead and an insurance run.

Scutaro has been getting on base at a high clip (filling in at lead off for an injured Navajo Jewish Lawyer) and also flashing his skills up the middle and in the hole on defense. It's been refreshing to see both of these guys play up to their talents on the left side of the infield after a few weeks of questionable defense.

Beltre is hitting well-above average at .340, and Scutaro is hitting a nice .288.

So, tonight... Well, the Sox face Scott Kazmir who was good when with the Rays, but now he's all over the place. On the mound for the Fenway Faithful is Andrew Dice K and his 11.57 ERA (not fair, only one start, but damn it was ugly).

Will it be another batting practice or will our $150 million pitcher feel comfortable at home?

BTW: Ortiz hit a single and opposite field home run last night. Hope he keeps it up.

[Image by johnkreese.nomaa via Flickr cc 3.0]

Someone Actually Shorter Than Pedroia on Sox Roster

Before last night's 2-1 win in Toronto, Dustin Pedroia (aka 'Lil' Shit' in my vernacular) evidently stood back-to-back to lefty Pawtucket call-up Fabio Castro and discovered to his scrappy delight that Castro was a slightly shorter man, according to Boston.com.

Castro is listed as 5' 7"; Pedroia is officially listed as 5' 9" but as the Globe reporters noted,  Pedroia the Destroia was only a little taller than Castro. Castro prompted number 15 to call him his "favorite pitcher of all time."

In related news, Castro was sent back to the Rhode Island team today to make room for--wait for it--Alan Embree. Yeh, he was money in the bank in the 2004 playoffs and World Series if I recall, but he was also roughed up quite a bit in the regular seasons he pitched with the Sox. Given the recent woes of Okageemah and the pen in general, another lefty could be helpful.

Embree, 40, pitched for Colorado last year and had an ERA of 5.84 in 24.2 innings.

Nervous yet? I am.

Buchholz Very Effective in Toronto
As far as the 2-1 Buchholz win last night, the young Texan gave the bullpen a much needed rest after Monday's Beckett implosion hitfest. Buch went 8 innings and gave up one run in the first inning. He pitched to contact outs and saw some good defense behind him from Scutaro who was likely feeling comfortable in the "Sky Mall" where he played last year.

Buch pitched out of jams well getting a ton of fly ball and ground outs and lowering his ERA to 2.19 for the best in the rotation. Given that Shaun Marcum was stifling Sox hitters, Buchholz kept the team in the game.

Mike Lowell, who pinch hit for Ortiz late in the game, took a bases-loaded walk that brought Lil' Shit (who went 2 for 5) home for the eventual win. Ramirez closed the game.

How to Age a Buchholz

Clay Buchholz, Nick Swisher, and an actor by the name of Adam Scott are in a new ESPN commercial - Buchholz and Scott are singing "Sweet Caroline," and they try to get Swisher to join in, and of course he won't because he plays for the Yankees. You can watch the whole thing below, but I'm posting it not because it's particularly funny, but because for the first time, Clay Buchholz looks older than 12 years of age. I actually had to watch the whole commercial twice, because I didn't realize it was him; I kept looking for a guy who looked like someone out of a Little League photo. Maybe they gave him sort of aging serum before the shoot.

Wacky for Lackey

So...despite my vitriolic assertions to the contrary, I guess The Boof wasn't Boston's only off-season move for the pitching staff, what with the John Lackey signing and all. In fact, I might even be willing to say that I completely acknowledge the error of my ways and resolve - once again - to never criticize the methods behind the madness that is the front office, because - despite all of the odd experiments - the Sox keep making these deals that make so much sense. With Lackey, they now have:

• A superior starting pitching staff that's on the verge of becoming 2007-like godly if Matsuzaka carries his form from the last four starts of 2009 into 2010. We thought the '09 staff had an excellent chance of dominating the field in Spring Training, but the success of even that illustrious group required a blessing of the stars; besides the Dice-K question, all the 2010 Sox need ask of their starters is for health and consistency with their already established numbers.
• A trade piece in odd man out Clay Buchholz, who'll have the chance to become the "maybe he'll make it" ornament of some other team's staff. Buchholz becomes trade bait for the bat the Sox will need to replace Bay, now that they've elected to...
  
• ...sign Mike Cameron and choose defense over offense in left field. The deal has everyone saying farewell to the likable-but-expensive Jason Bay and those Gay for Bay t-shirts Robin planned to market, but frees up money for one of those expensive contracts the Sox will likely acquire with Bay's offensive replacement.

Of course, we can't celebrate a successful hot stove season just yet: someone has to agree to make the trade that makes the Cameron acquisition worthwhile at a price that doesn't make us cry for a mortgaged future or (even worse) a missed opportunity. Anyone got a player with .896 (or better) OPS they can spare?

Ode to the Worst Week in Red Sox Baseball in a Long Time

So many Red Sox thoughts right now, I'm overwhelmed with strange feelings.

It started with Lester's 8 innings in Tampa last week when it looked like it was a lock for a win. And then the pen collapsed. I knew then that there was something strange and eerie going on--like it was 2008 all over again and the Rays have magical powers at the Trop.

Some thoughts go to the past... Was Manny a Zenmaster in disguise, relaxing the middle of the lineup with his que-sera-sera, stoner outlook?

I despise Manny now for what he did to get traded, but I understand his value in the middle of that lineup. For all his bad traits, the guy rarely pressed. He was the equivalent of having, gulp, Mark Teixiera (say what you want about him being on the Yankees--the guy is a freaking stud).

Manny relaxed Ortiz. This is not news, it's just a fact. As Eric said to me today, "Manny is a lingering presence. Like overripe fish."

Is the silver lining that our starting pitching is very good? Is Tito for real doing these Bigelow Green Tea ads online?

Whatever the case, I haven't seen the Red Sox offense press so much in a very long time.

Youkilis who had been hitting really well on the road, suddenly lost it again over the weekend. The Jason Bay hamstring pull couldn't have come at a worse time. I love getting V-Mart, but getting him in a slump of sorts is unfortunate.

Lester and Beckett are studs. Buchholz has some things to work out, namely, throwing that fastball for strikes (and maybe going back to the mysteriously missing curveball).

First place is pretty much a goner at this point in the season, unless the Yankees pull an about face or there is some major injury to Burnett or Carston Charles. The wild card is the spot to get, and with having to go on the road in Texas and Toronto, the Sox have a lot more work to do.

The point is that it's time to relax a little, and get back to basics. Shrug off the week, and get back to taking bad pitches, hitting strikes and being patient.

ps. The Red Sox schedule is so whacked this week.. Why the hell do they go home for 4 games, then are back on the road for 6 to Texas (again) and Toronto? And looking ahead, from August 18 to 30 the Red Sox do not have one day off.

What Happened to Buchholz's Curve Ball?

Where the hell is that nasty 12 to 6 curve ball Clay Buchholz threw in 2007?

It was a knee-buckling, deer in the headlights pitch that seems to have disappeared from his repetoire.

I don't get it at all.

I've watched him try to throw it only two times in this game to the Yankees. Once, he came extremely close to hitting A-Rod in the back of the shoulder. The second time, it was very high and out of the zone.

Is he being told to throw a slider--a form of a breaking pitch with a tighter rotation--by Red Sox pitching coaches? Are they concerned about his elbow and shoulder for the long haul of his career?

There is no doubt that his change up is a great out pitch, and he can throw it on demand in any count. He is showing that as much in this game against Carston Charles in the Bronx (C.C. has a one hitter through 6 innings right now).

I seem to recall Buchholz's no hitter back in 2007 had the curve ball prominently featured (and in other games since then), but not in 2009. I also seem to recall a fastball that was closer to 97. I guess a lot can happen in two seasons.

I know he has good stuff, and he needs more major league experience, but it seems to me that some his confidence in the curve ball (and many pitches) is lost--and confidence is something this pitching staff needs desperately.

With that said, Buchholz has been able to use the changeup and the splitter well today against the Yankees. Having only given up 1 run over 5 innings, Buchholz has mixed up his pitches smartly.

I guess I am saying that when you see something like a 12-6 curveball that can jar hitters with such force, you have to keep it and throw it.

Luckily, Buch will be staying with the major league club for the remainder of the season and his experience will grow and benefit from being around the always-confident Josh Beckett and Jonathan Papelbon.

Speaking of Beckett, what a great outing he had in Friday night's 15-inning, 2-0 loss to the Yankees. I want to see this guy in another playoff game as soon as possible, but given how lifeless the Sox bats are right now (and the injuries to Bay, Dice-K, Wakefield and Lowrie, again), it's difficult to know right now if this team has what it takes to get there.

Pitching: It's a Problem, But it Could be Worse

Crap in a hat. A few years ago, I have run screaming for the hills - or the ridge in Prospect Park; I'm in Brooklyn, after all - at the idea of facing the Yankees in the Bronx down a key member of the line up. Now I'm just slightly nervous. Shocking the Yanks at home seems like a possibility - particularly after the embarrassments the Bombers have suffered at the hands of the Sox this year - and I'm sticking to my optimism unless something bad happens this evening. In the meantime, let's talk pitching.

There's a sense of panic in the press about the state of the back 3/5ths rotation, with quotes like "a 2-5 record and 7.74 ERA in its past three trips through the rotation" being bandied about like they're signs of the Apocalypse. If there's another Boston Massacre this weekend those fears could - could - be justified, but right now they're just short sighted, for a few reasons:

1. The problem isn't Penny (or even Buchholz, who's had one terrible start, one shortened start, and two quality starts) so much as it is Smoltz. Penny's started 21 games this season; he's given up five runs or more four times, and he's had two starts where he's pitched less than five innings. Remembering that he's both an experiment on the cheap and a fourth or fifth starter, I can't see any reason to complain about what he's brought to the table this year. Last night was just a poorly-timed deviation from the pattern. Smoltz, on the other hand, has only given up less than five runs on two out of his seven starts, and those were against the AAAA teams in KC and Baltimore. Unlike Penny, he's also had almost no run support, so his bad days look that much worse.
   
   
2. Experiments or no, imagine how bad things would be if the Sox hadn't signed Penny and Smoltz now that injuries have put us in our time of need: we'd been looking at 2006 all over again, with the corresponding overexposure of young talent unprepared for the big stage. I'd much rather have veterans like Penny and Smoltz out on the mound than watch the Sox bring up Bowden a year or two too early or try to convert Bard into a starter mid-year. These guys were hired to be insurance and they're providing it, much like Paul Byrd will be if his climb up from the minors proves successful.
   
   
3. Wakefield and Matsuzaka might not be on the world's fastest healing schedules, but it's likely they'll be back before the season is over. It sucks that they're both out at such a critical time in the season, but I think - and yes, I'm about to concede the title to the East - that the Sox have the ability to hang on long enough to take the Wild Card. Time to step things up, boys. Let's start with taking down Cletus the Hutt tonight.
   

A Closer Look at Kotchman, LaRoche and V-Mart

On the surface, the Kotchman for LaRoche deal is pretty puzzling.
But upon a little investigation, it appears that there are a few key factors at play.

One appears to be that defense is a larger piece of the puzzle. The second reason is that LaRoche and Chris Duncan (who the Sox got in the Lugo deal from St. Louis) in my estimation--were down-the-stretch, left-handed offensive insurance in case the Red Sox did not land Adrian Gonzalez or V-Mart. The third reason is contract related.

The defensive numbers are explained really well in the Around the Majors blog:

According to Total Fielding Runs, LaRoche cost his teams 2.6 runs more than an average fielder per 1,250 innings over his career. Kotchman saved his team 6 runs per 1,250 innings.

According to Ultimate Zone Rating, Kotchman has been 5.8 runs better than an average first baseman in 2009 (best in baseball). LaRoche is 3.4 runs worse than the average first baseman.

Ok, cool. For the rest of 2009, he's a bench player. He can pinch hit against righties, becomes a defensive replacement when Youk is at third and Lowell is removed or sits and on days when V-Mart catches. Sox have a ton of corner flexibility and, in my estimation, are better set up for next year without Mike Lowell.

We all know Youk is going to be the third baseman of the future, and with Lowell's hip problems, having an additional first-baseman and another lefty bat can't hurt the Red Sox. Victor Martinez did have some injuries in 2008, notably the arthroscopic surgery on his elbow, so you never know when one loose Joba fastball could send him back to the DL.

Kothcman, Duncan and down-the-road, Lars Anderson, can back up for any of these scenarios.

Contract
LaRoche is about to be a free agent at the end of this season, while Kotchman is arbitration-eligible through 2011. The nice part of that is that it gives the Red Sox brass more contract flexibility for a guy who is most likely a bench player for the remainder of this year.

He's not a free agent until 2012, so I would expect that Kotchman gives the Red Sox more trade package options in the off season with Lowell likely to be moved. Being able to throw in a 26 year old with some major league experience in a trade package is a nice to thing to have in your back pocket.

Until then, it's nice to have the defense in your pocket if something were to happen to Youk or Martinez.

More on Victor Martinez
Did I mention that this was the deal I wanted?

If his first-half offensive numbers are any indication, Martinez is a great get, especially when you factor in his ability to relieve Varitek behind the plate, and hit in the middle of the lineup from both sides of the plate.

He's an RBI guy--something the team needs right now with Bay struggling-- and the psychological distractions Big Papi now faces with the recently revealed roid debacle.

Contract-wise, the Red Sox can pick up V-Mart's option for 2010 for $7.5 million. Given his offensive history, that is relative bargain for a middle of the lineup hitter who can also catch. You have to imagine that Tek is not going to be able to catch as many games the remainder of the season, or next year, given his age, and the wear and tear.

While Adrian Gonzalez is younger with a great opposite field lefty bat, I am very content with Victor Martinez who has a strong history in the AL and has seen a whole lot more AL pitching and AL East teams than Gonzo (though don't count out the Sox going for Gonzo in the off season as the Padres are in major rebuilding mode after letting Peavy go).

And ultimately, the Red Sox have shown that they can make the deals they want to make without giving up too much. While Masterson was a good long reliver and showed signs of being a solid starter, the three B's (Bard, Bowden and Bucholz) are well-protected future stars of the game.

Welcome to V-Mart...

...now located in the confines of friendly Fenway Park. The addition of the 30-year-old catcher and first baseman provides some insurance that will let Lowell take more spells away from the field and provide a bat with a bit more pop than the light hitting Kottaras. It's a solid deal, but I'll be honest: I'm more excited because the Sox were able to get an upgrade over LaRoche (now heading to Atlanta for Casey Kotchman) without trading anyone more valuable than Justin Masterson. Buchholz, Bard, Bowden; they're all still around, with Buchholz now free to get his second shot at establishing himself as an integral part of the rotation.

Next question: what are the Sox going to do with Kotchman? If there's another swap in the offing, why trade for Kotchman first - aren't he and LaRoche basically interchangeable parts? I guess we'll find out shortly.

Exercise Caution When Dealing for Halladay

How's everyone feeling about the Roy Halladay trade possibility? I must admit I'm a little wary: not because I think Halladay will flop - unlike many of the hyped trades and signings of the past few years, Doc is worth the price, as Dave Cameron of FanGraphs demonstrates - but because the Blue Jays have two big advantages in negotiations:

1. Halladay's contract expires in 2010. As one of the New England sports papers pointed out recently, Toronto has three opportunities to deal Halladay: now, at the end of the season, or before the trade deadline next year. The size of that window gives the Jays a nice piece of leverage: they don't have to deal Halladay now if they don't get an offer they really like, because they'll have two opportunities to do so again over the next year. As an added bonus, if Toronto doesn't get a great deal before the 2010 trading deadline, they'll either make a bid to resign or get two draft picks in compensation.
   
   
2. The market demand for good pitching is enormous. Philly, Texas, St. Louis, and the Mets all have a desperate need for a pitcher of Halladay's caliber, increasing demand and allowing the Jays to charge a much higher price for his services. Combined with the time window that removes much of the pressure from Toronto to complete a deal, this increased demand for good pitching would doubtless require the Sox to part with two or three highly-touted prospects (Buchholz, Bowden, Bard) to make a deal.

I'm pretty sure I've said in the past (probably in reference to Beckett) that trading future value to obtain present value is always a good idea (although some Yankee fans might disagree), but I have to make a corollary in Halladay's case: right now, the market isn't in Boston's favor, particularly for a luxury the team would like to have, but doesn't really need. I'd hate to see the Jays become the dominant team in the AL East because the Sox gave them one too many good pieces in pursuit of a deal.

Speculating on the Brad Penny Possibilities

For a baseball fan, there are few things finer than speculating on possibilities. The game's heavy focus on strategy makes it a natural generator of debate, particularly when possibilities are in play: when a team has options for different configurations that might help or hurt the team's fortunes, even the most casual fan has an option they favor. Thus with the Red Sox, who have a wealth of starting pitchers that would make Croesus's baseball equivalent jealous, and for once find themselves in position of strength in the mid-season trading market. The possibilities are two-fold:

1. Brad Penny has proven himself to be a wildly successful gamble whose value increases with every start. Do the Sox trade him - and if so, to whom, and for what - or do they choose to ride his success to the post-season and possibly beyond?
2. John Smoltz, Clay Buchholz, and Dice-K Matsuzaka are competing for a rotation spot. For now, the Sox are opting for a six man unit, but for the sake of their pitchers' rhythms, they'll have to make a decision one way or another before too much times goes by. Who should get the job?

What makes Boston's position even more enviable is that the Sox don't have to make a decision quite yet: they have the time to see Smoltz become a known quantity and if he doesn't work out, keep Penny for the rest of the season or trade him and fall back on Buchholz. If Smoltz proves himself up to his usual standards, they can trade Penny and pitch Buchholz, or keep Buchholz in the wings and hold on to Penny.

My thoughts: wait and see on Smoltz and trade Penny no matter what - but only after Smoltz has had time to establish himself. Unless Penny somehow goes off the deep end between now and the trading deadline, his value will remain high among contending teams desperate for good pitching and the Sox might be able to get a solid catching prospect in return. In addition, a trade will give Boston some value on an expiring contract for a pitcher who will command a lot more money on the market this winter. Waiting until Smoltz proves himself just increases the options in case of a worst case scenario. Either way, they should still DL Dice-K until he's really healthy before putting him back in the mix.

Is Brad Penny Trade Bait?

Bob Ryan and Chad Finn may be on to something.

They contend, Ryan actually predicts, that Brad Penny will no longer be a member of the Red Sox come the trade deadline in late July.

Brad Penny has been a decent starter as of late, and we all know what teams need for the second half of the season: Innings-eating quality pitching. With Bowden, Buchholz and 'ole man Smoltzy in the waiting, the depth we've all heard about in Red Sox pitching should start seeing life with the big league team in June.

[By the way, Buchholz came extremely close to a perfect game in Pawtucket]

Look at some Penny fun facts:

• 3 Wins in his last 5 starts against strong offensive teams: Tampa, Toronto and Twins
• In those 5 starts, he's walked a total of 6 batters, none against the Twins on the road
• Only 1 home run given up over that stretch
• Penny hasn't given up more than 4 runs in any of those 5 starts
• His ERA has dropped from 7.61 to 5.96
• He had 8 K's against Tampa, 7 against Twinkies

And the not so fun Penny facts:

• Opponents hitting .302 against him for the season
• An 11.2 Hits Per 9 inning in 2009 (a career worst)
• A career era of 4.12 while pitching almost entirely in the NL
• Has a recent-shoulder history that would have many GMs nervous
• Has a belly that says "Beer is a food group"
• He's 31

The thing that Ryan and Finn don't really discuss what they might get for Penny, but the point of trade bait is a valid one and something you could see the Sox doing, especially as the move to get younger (aside from the freak Smoltz) takes hold. The Sox would probably need to package him up with some young player they are willing to part with (no one really comes to mind immediately, but we know the Sox have a coveted farm system).

Lord knows many of us would love to see Lugo go in a trade, so perhaps Penny might be part of that kind of package with a youngster. I pray.

I could easily see Penny being baited back to the NL West where the streaking Padres (not naked priests, you sickos, the 10 Ws in a row) could look to make a move against the Dodgers, or even the New York Mets who need more reliable starting pitching with all their recent offensive DL moves (Delgado, Cora, and today, Reyes and Church). The Mets are going to need pitching help soon.

The Padres make sense to me because they seem to love to trade former guys who played for the Dodgers like Maddux who was wearing those retarded camo uniforms one day, then in those crisp, white Dodger unis the next. Time to stick it back to the Dodgers, whale vagina town?

We're not used to seeing guys be traded at the deadline in the same division here in the AL East. That's nuts, especially in the same season.

The big questions remain on how Bucholz will react to coming back to the big league team, not to mention how Bowden will perform (and how much he will be used as a starter) and if Smoltz can be Smoltzesque in the AL against offensive powerhouses like the Rays and Yankees.

While Penny might seem excellent trade discussion fodder, it's not a bad thing to have 4 starting options if anyone should need to go on the DL between now and July 31 (or after). We've seen Beckett blisters boil up before, and I'm not convinced yet that Dice-K is at full strength after his recent medicore outing.

One thing is for sure: Penny will not be packaged with top tier talent for anyone.

We Can Rebuild Him...We Have the Technology

Our new catching acquisition has been battling back problems all year. Somehow, this fact does not inspire confidence.

Part of me wanted to write a Six Million Dollar Man spoof in honor of Buchholz's return to Portland, but since I've never watched the show, I kept the reference to the title. You'll thank me later. Instead, some thoughts on what I've seen 'round the Internets about Clay's downswing:

• A few days ago - before the fateful final start against Baltimore - I spotted an article (that I now can't find, of course) about Buchholz finding a hole in his mechanics during his side sessions with John Farrell. As a professional fixer of sorts, I like hearing rational reasons like "correctible mechanical problems" and since Buchholz gets a lot of good will for pitching that no-hitter, I want him to succeed. As a result, I develop an almost irrational faith in the potential of the fix: the coaches know the problem, so they'll fix it. Clearly, not so much. These fixes take time.
• The Herald quoted Kevin Cash and referenced Jason Varitek in two separate articles on Buchholz published today; both catchers spoke about the importance of pitcher confidence. The intimation of both articles is that Clay lacks the confidence in his pitches; Francona even cited an incident against Baltimore where Buchholz shook off a fastball because he felt he wouldn't succeed. As Jonah pointed out over at Soxlosophy, the pitcher is meat: the catcher should be making the calls that determine the course of the game. If the pitcher doesn't have the confidence to throw the pitches his play caller demands, it's time to step back, to the lower-pressure world of the minors if necessary.
• In the article that brings up Varitek, Tony Massarotti voices our worst fear: that Buchholz is a flame out, a reincarnation of Kevin Morton, whose stellar debut with the Sox in July, 1991 (five hit, one run complete game against the Tigers) marked the high water mark of his 16 game major league career. But I think the comparison is inaccurate. As some of the partisans at SoSH (which incidentally has a good discussion of the whole confidence issue) continue to point out, Buchholz's BABIP continues to be about 60 points higher than average, which makes him one heck of an unlucky pitcher. Morton's BABIP was three points below average, which - if nothing else - means that his numbers were a reflection of his abilities: he really wasn't that good a pitcher.
  

The True Psychology of the Wild Buchholz

If this report is true and Manny really wants to go to the Yankees, he knows what will happen any time he comes to Fenway. If he's happy with shooting his Boston legacy in the foot, more power to him.

I was just wondering recently what happened to Devern Hansack; now it looks like he might be taking Wakefield's rotation spot for his next two appearances. An ERA over four in the minors ain't no great shakes, but the WHIP and K/BB ratios both look pretty good. We can certainly use the rotation help right now...

Speaking of which: let's talk (some more) about Clay Buchholz. We know he's unlucky; that statistic hasn't changed since last week. What's caught my eye this week was the Globe's article/interview with the troubled pitcher, which focuses on Buchholz's bad habit of relying on his offspeed pitches to get him out of trouble. Hitters around the league know this habit; they watch and wait for the offspeed stuff like music fans counting the days until Scott Weiland's latest tumble off the wagon, and they let it go flying by. Very quickly, Clay gets into bad counts, everyone starts thinking fastball and next thing we know, he's blowing through three run leads. Clearly the situation requires a new strategy, but unlike Robin I don't think Clay's goose is cooked just yet: no one denies that his stuff works really, really well when it's in the right sequence...and we all know he knows how to sequence properly. The trick is to adjust the sequence, to get, as Buchholz put it himself, "ahead in the count a bit more often where they don't have a choice to swing at off-speed stuff." It'd be great if he could do so this year, but like Lester in 2007, I think the adjustments will take a few months to really take effect.

Feat of Clay

Question: Who is 0-5 since is his recall from AAA ball?

Answer: The same guy who got the Red Sox a no-hitter last year.

I answered that question… but the rest here are up to people who know better… cause I got NOTHING.

Clay Buchholz is a disaster right now and it makes you wonder… is this guy only getting the starts because of some past glory?

Now I am not any sort of sentimentalist, but I can see why you would think that a guy who could go 9 solid without letting up a base knock would be good in the following season… but what about flukes? Could that have been the aberration and this the norm? Clay has a devastating change, a good solid fast ball and curve but he can’t seem to locate any of them. He doesn’t look like he trusts his stuff enough to just throw it across the plate.

And then there is the “I’m frustrated cause I just walked the last 2 guys” pitches he throws. Those tend to go 400+ feet and end with poor Clay looking like his dog just died. Is this going to be common slope with him?

Maybe it’s the lack of options then. Maybe there isn’t anyone better to throw up there every 5 days. Now with Wake going on the DL and missing at least 2 starts (boy does that suck) the premium on starting pitching is even higher.

Then again why did we go with Buchholz over Masterson? Wasn’t Masterson doing a lot better before he was thrown into the bullpen? Don’t get me wrong, I think Masterson is doing great in the pen, but would he be more valuable pitching his 6-7 innings in one game rather than stretched over a week?

So if anyone has any answers to these pressing questions I’m all ears, because as it stands right now, the youth at the back of the rotation looks more like crap then Clay. Ugh.

Jon Lester Is Pretty Damn Awesome

This post on Joe Posnanski's blog caught my eye because I attempted (unsuccessfully) to acquire Ziegler for my fantasy team yesterday. Named after A's reliever Brad Ziegler, it's a good illustration of a new statistic in development.

Clay Buchholz may not be living up to his promise at the moment, but he seems to be the victim of extremely poor luck: his BABIP for 2008 is an astronomical .364, over 100 points higher than his 2007 total (which was far lower than the .300 that defines "average"). Statistics say there's a better pitcher in there somewhere; maybe he'll show up before Colon comes back and makes the point moot.

Jon Lester, on the other hand, seems to be a golden god - or so says Peter Bendix over at Beyond the Box Score. Bendix points out that Lester's problematic stats (ERA, K/9, and the oh-so-worrisome BB/9) have all improved - not only since 2007, but in the twelve starts since his no-hitter, which seems to be a statistical turning point. Bendix suggests Lester might be the best pitcher in the AL, which seems a little extreme until - to tie the two ends of this post together - we note anecdotally that Lester does seem to have become the Type B pitcher ("An extreme ground ball pitcher who keeps walks down") Posnanski talks about in his Ziegler post and, more importantly, that Lester's Ziegler number for his last thirteen starts (starting with the shutout) is 122.4, higher than list-leader Brandon Webb's 112.6. Seems like Bendix has a good point...