- Santana's numbers at Fenway are pretty ugly: 29 base runners and 12 earned runs in about 16 innings. Haren's Fenway numbers in the same number of innings are better (26 base runners and 8 earned runs), and he's two years younger. If we're going to lose a year having a pitcher adapt to winning at Fenway, I'd prefer it'd be from the guy who's got a head start and the younger age. On a related note, if the Yankees grab Santana, his history in Fenway means he won't be an automatic Sox killer.
- After his monster year in 2004, Santana's ERA+ fell about 25 points in 2005, then took another 30 point drop in 2007, leading to (among other things) a failure to anchor the pitching staff on my fantasy team. More importantly, although he's had his famous second-half resurgence every year since 2004, the quality of those resurgences is slipping: OBP against, for example, was nearly equal in both halves of 2006, and higher in the second of 2007, where it had been much lower in the second halves of 2004 and 2005. Might this be part of a trend?
- Santana will cost a whole lot of money to keep - he's coming into the end of his contract, and Wilbur has his rumored asking price at $25 million a year. A contract year performance would support that kind of money, but if Santana's entering a period of decline, he won't be worth $25 million in 2009. Haren, meanwhile, is a paltry (by comparison) $5.4 million for the next three years; plenty of time for him to prove he can be another dominating starter at Fenway without nearly as much monetary risk.
- Haren's numbers have been trending up since he became a full-time starter in 2005, and garnered an ERA+ of 137 (his highest yet) in 2007. He hasn't reached Santana's godly levels, but he's definitely getting much better as he gets older.
G19: Red Sox 6, Orioles 2
12 hours ago