Remember Ego and Super Ego, the feature where Robin and I simulate the thought processes of a typical Red Sox fan in word form? Well, the announced return of the Papal-Bon to the role of closer snapped something inside both of us, so Ego and Super Ego is back. My comments in normal text, Robin's in italics. Enjoy...It's official: Jonathan Papelbon will be the closer for 2007, ending weeks of speculation about the future owner of the job, the health of Papelbon's shoulder, the foolishness of the Sox for moving him out of the position, the need for a closer, etc., etc., etc. While I'm glad the wait is over, because I was getting really sick of every sportscaster feeling the need to add their opinion to the mix, that doesn't mean I don't have some mixed feelings about seeing Paps back in the pen. Being the logical, organized type, I've laid out the pros and cons of making this transition.
Being the pissed off psycho type, I am gonna break down his lame assumptions and tell you what the real deal is with this freaking travesty of a no-win, zero sum, awful choice this team just made. Honestly… I’m a little excited.
Pros:
- Proven track record: the seven runs over 70 innings, the 75 strikeouts and 13 walks, the sheer badassity of a closer who didn't give up his first run until halfway through 2006 all speak for themselves.
Oh come on! Everyone knows Paps is the second coming. That’s the freaking point. He comes in = the game ends. - Stronger arm: after last year's shoulder scare, Papelbon has gone through a boatload of strengthening exercises and, according to his quote in the Herald, has talked to a "million doctors" who all seem to agree that his new exercise regimen will give him the arm strength he needs to keep a live arm all season. He now feels he can perform in either role, as the team needs him.
Stronger than what? He looked fine until the end of last season when he collapsed like someone whose name rhymes “Crap Lament” last season. And what’s this magic strength training? Tai-Bo? Or has he been hitting the medicine balls so hard that anything larger than a cantaloupe gives him fits? - A much better option: was I worried about Julian Tavarez or Joel Pineiro coming in to shoot down the opposition Rivera-style in close contests? You bet your ass I was. We know Paps can get the job done and get it done well and that counts for a lot of peace of mind.
No crap. Last time I checked everyone was getting rocked this spring. And you usually can’t get piece of mind from a guy who played Tony Montana in the Sox clubhouse version of Scarface.
- Arm health: what if the doctors are wrong or the exercise regimen doesn't work and Papelbon's arm falls off, as I keep fearing it will? I admit my irrational fears don't go up very well against a "million doctors," but I won't feel any better if I'm right and Paps can't pitch anymore. Plus, Papelbon is a warrior: he'll probably keep pitching until his arm does fall off because he's so committed (although Curt Schilling seems to feel otherwise).
Plus, this is idiotic. Severe arm damage is something you’d notice in his performance. If he ends up sucking cause he’s hurt, we are back at square screwed. - Pitching limitations: according to the quotes in the Herald, there are big limitations on how often and how long Papelbon can pitch - no multiple inning outings and no pitching four or five nights in a row. I trust Francona not to blow this restriction, but do I trust the rest of the bullpen to step up and keep the runs off the board on those nights when Papelbon can't pitch? It's a big risk.
This I really don’t understand. If we are risking this guy by making him the closer, then why not run him into the ground and get all the wins we can get out of him. What? If he’s gonna get hurt anyway, we might as well bleed him dry. - Replacement effectiveness: with Papelbon back in the 'pen, Julian Tavarez will take his spot in the rotation. He did well enough in the role at the end of last year to be a fifth starter and he definitely wants to be there, but we're talking about Julian Tavarez, the man most likely in 2006 to suffer a mound meltdown - after Rudy Seanez, of course - taking the reins in 2007 at the back of the rotation. Ignoring the loss in quality that lowers the rotation from godlike to pretty good, Tavarez is a scary unknown factor as a pitcher in general and a starter in particular.
Lord, Tavarez again? Can you imagine every 5 days dealing with “Mask and Chainsaw” night at Fenway? Could somebody go check the white blood cell count on Jon Lester?
It’s brutal that a “tie” means that we take a potential 15-18 game winner and turn him into a 35+ save closer who has a chance to burnout in August. But there really aren’t any other good options are there.
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7 comments:
I think you're under estimating JT in the 5-spot. He has always wanted to be a starter. He has the arm of a starter. And a little emotion is good on the mound. If you don't believe me watch Carlos Zambrano in Wrigley sometime.
That being said, I'm terrified for Paps' arm. When I heard this news I honestly has to talk myself into being excited.
This is fantastic for 3 quick reasons.
1) We've tried the closer by committee routine once before, and incase you guys forgot, it was a miserable experience. The year before the Sox won it, was heart wrenching to follow, and don't forget about when Shilling tried it, and everyone else that followed, and how bad that sucked. You need a closer in baseball, end of story.
2) The most important of the three, Papalbon cannot sleep because he wants to close. Now that's someone who wants the ball at crunch time, and that's EXACTLY what you need in a closer. You don't want a guy worrying about if he's going to have his job if he blows the game. You want a guy who tears the ball out of your hand and throws fire at the opposing team believing no one can stop him. That's what we have with Papalbon. That's what the Yankees had with Rivera and did anyone care, or remember, about the 5th starter of the Yankees team that won 4 world series, I think not. A closer, in my humble opinion, is a much more valuable position than any 5th starter. Hell, the 5th stater doesn't even really get to pitch in the playoffs. Also, unless all our pitchers pitch complete games, it doesn't matter how good they are if our bullpen blows their games.
3) The most fun of them all. We have a psychopath pitching every five games. There is a possibility that he might stab someone, kill someone with the ball, or mangle a fan at any given time. This will make for great entertainment. Also, I told Robin this before last year ended as J.T. Killer was starting to get the hang of starting, he's going to be decent. I'm willing to pencil him in for 10-12 wins. Why do you ask? For one, because he's crazy, and but more importantly because Manny loves him. How often do you think Manny actually cares about playing baseball? Well now we know that he might care one out of every five starts, and that's more than we can ask for from. Plus, if Manny is motivated to hit for the guy, you know the rest of the team will be playing just a little bit better knowing that J.T. Killer is on the mound. I mean, he might get into a fight with a teamate and break his hand on his face if said player has a bad game.
(all of this is based on the fact that millions of doctors believe Papalbon can do it, and I believe them over my own fears that he will get hurt).
Bottom line, this makes the team much, much, much better.
Go Sox! Go J.T. Killer!
I believe we now have a new nickname for Mr. Tavarez...now I want him to start throwing at people, Pedro-style.
1) The Red Sox were six outs from reaching the World Series on closer by committee (though it basically became Williamson...which is what happens to a lot of teams--someone emerges...look at Wainwright and St. Louis last year) and they would have done it if not for Little.
2) Closer is more valuable than your 4th or 5th-best starter, yes, I agree. But what if Papelbon had thrown a 3.6 ERA as a starter? Just because he's pencilled in 4th doesn't mean he would be 4th-best.
3) I admit, I kind of like Tavarez being a starting pitcher. I was suitably impressed with him last September (though I don't think he'll be that good this year). It should be fun to watch him point to his fielders to show where they should be throwing...and hopefully tear the rubber out of the mound and throw it at someone.
I'm for Papelbon doing this because he wants to (apparently) and because he's good at it, but I'd still like to see what he could do in the rotation. His curveball looked pretty good to me in the spring training starts I saw online, but who am I to judge? Do you need 4 pitches to be a starter?
Devine,
We actually do have some idea of how Papelbon would be as a starter: the games he started in 2005. Basically, it's clear he'll be very, very good no matter what his role and that we're very lucky to have him pitching for us.
They were only 6 outs away from reaching the world series because the bullpen stepped it up dramatically in the off season, which rarely ever happens. If the bullpen would have been good all year, there would have been no reason at all for Grady to leave Pedro in. Did I just defend Little? Now I'm going to stab my self with a rusty fork.
I'll be excited to find out that JT is being underestimated.. 30 minutes til the truth starts hittin'
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