Alas, Poor Lowrie

It's funny: Jed Lowrie's time out with injuries were such a big part of his 2009 season that I forgot that his time away from the majors in 2008 had more to do with the Julio Lugo experiment and Lowrie's suckiness resulting from his hidden injury, not time on the DL. As a result, when I saw the headline that doctors have diagnosed him with mononucleosis, my first, entirely irrational thought was that he's cursed. Now that I've refreshed myself on his transaction history, I realize he's just unlucky: he hurt in himself in 2008, did enough damage to miss the first half of 2009, compounded problems with additional arm-related issues at the end of the season, and now, as he's still seeking to establish himself as a reliable player, he comes down with a disease that people normally get when they're in middle school.

Of course, he still looks like he's in middle school, so maybe we shouldn't be surprised. I wish him luck, but I'm not holding my breath about his taking over Scutaro's job any time soon.

Later He Cries Bitter Tears

Remember Julio Lugo? I know, I know: it's been a while (eight games, to be precise), and it's hard to remember he's standing on the sidelines when his replacement is a ninja who clearly spent that missing year of his career in training with Ra's al Ghul. But with Green's star well stuck in the firmament and Lowrie's return immanent, Lugo sees his future all too clearly and he's not shy about making his disappointment known. Sugar coating his feelings is just the way of disguising the knife, of course:

"I'm happy for [Green]," Lugo said. "I'm very happy he's playing well, but that doesn't take away from who I am. I haven't been a shortstop in the big leagues for 10 years because one day I woke up and got two hits. I've been here because I have a history of playing and playing well. That's why I've got 10 years in the big leagues. But I'm very happy for him."

Oh yeah, he's thrilled about riding the pine while someone else starts. Can't you tell?

Three Words

Julio Lugo Sucks

Surprise! Julio Lugo Isn't Really Ready To Play

Because inquiring minds want to know, Terry Francona has to answer questions about Julio Lugo, and being a good manager, he protected his player as much as possible without dodging any bullets. Unfortunately, his answers seem to have generated more questions:

"Talked to Lugie today, he came back quick," Francona said. "I don't think he's moving yet like he's gonna. I told him to take the next day or so and get with [strength and conditioning coach Dave Page] because I think putting him out there sometimes is a little unfair. I thought [Sunday] he got put in some situations where plays were hard for him to make.

So he wasn't really ready, was he. He came back because the Sox couldn't call Gil Velazquez back up again, but really he should have been working out his kinks in Pawtucket. Did I get that right? "Looking out for both guys (Green and Lugo)," as Francona put it in the same article, is all well and good, but maybe Lugo shouldn't start until he really is back to 100 percent? Meanwhile, calls for Lugo's head continue to grow.

Julio Lugo Watch: Day 1

I guess our luck had to run out eventually, although I won't lie: I was moments away from tweeting a paen to our bullpen when Lopez had his misstep.

More important than the outcome of one game, however disappointing, we've got Lugo's return! Yay! To celebrate the occasion, I think we should do a tally of how our purported starting shortstop did on his first day back.

Remember the old, bitter joke about Julio Lugo: how he isn't on the team for his glove, and he isn't there for his bat, so why is he there? Well, the glove part still seems to hold true: Lugo had an error in the third on a bobble and a miscommunication with Ellsbury in the fifth that led to a double. Getting back into the swing of things on a cold night after missing most of Spring Training might be the sole reason for the problems, but I think Lugo's lost the right to claim the benefit of the doubt.

Lugo did drive in a run and score another with his bat, but his error in the third cost the Sox two runs (one run scored on the play, another scored when a home run knocked in De Rosa a few batters later), so the score is even...and the errors cost Penny and the bullpen some pitches. I'd say a down night overall.

Jed Lowrie and the Case of the Missing Arm Bone

The news about Beckett is excellent, even if the pitcher himself isn't pleased about it; the news about Lowrie has the potential to suck a high hard one, particularly if it means taking a bone out of his wrist.

Hold on a second: they want to take a bone out of his wrist? How much damage did Lowrie do to himself last year, anyway? Seriously? I'm glad the guy's got brass balls that would make Bronson Arroyo jealous by playing through kind of pain for this long, but let's all take a lesson here: if you're hurt, take care of it. Dragging ass for almost a season and then risking the removal of a bone from your arm because your wrist is ahurtin' isn't worth the loyalty you've proven.

If the worst is true and Lowrie and his dumb choices have taken him out for the better part of two seasons, I have a choice to make: since Green is still hitting above his (admittedly mediocre) career totals and Julio Lugo is the starter in waiting, do I give Lugo another chance, or become a Green man and help the mastermind fulfill his criminal dream? It's been almost a year since we started calling for Lugo's head and he's got a long way to go before he proves himself worthy...

Nick Green, Supervillain

Ladies and gentlemen, I have uncovered a conspiracy of such vast and frightening dimensions as to render the curse of steroids upon our favorite sport a mere footnote in the annals of history. My life may be in danger for daring to shed the light of truth upon this foul den of malfeasance, but I feel it is my duty as a fan to reveal to you know what I know: Nick Green is not the mild-mannered utility player he seems. In fact, the 30-year-old journeyman has been gunning for the starting shortstop position all along!

You see, while you and I were speculating on the outcome of the Julio Lugo/Jed Lowrie competition for shortstop, Green was quietly insinuating himself behind the scenes, preparing to strike. First, he took out Lugo with a kneecaping cleverly disguised as a torn miniscus, placing himself in the backup position to young Lowrie, who emerged from the fray as Boston's seeming best hope for the right side up the middle. After a decent interval to alay suspicions, he struck again, disabling Lowrie's weak left wrist, sending him to the DL, and securing the top spot for himself. Cleverly done to be sure, but not cleverly enough! for I've figured out the pattern, Mr. Green, and uncovered your dastardly deeds for all to see!

Seriously though: I'm glad to see Lowrie's complete and utter post-Spring Training collapse has a root cause. Next time Lowrie goes into a slump, how about we check on his wrists a bit sooner, mkay?

No Shortstop Competition? No Problem!

Hey, so looks like Lowrie wins the competition because he's got better tendons...somewhere Robin is sighing in relief. Actually, I don't think this tough break for Lugo is the end of the fight for the starting job; Lugo's injury not withstanding, he certainly didn't sound like he'd back down from the fight, even if it means he has to prove himself after the season starts. Whether or not he gets the chance probably depends entirely on Lowrie: if he establishes himself from the get go in Kevin Youkilis in 2006 style, Lugo will find himself out in the cold faster than you can say "J.T. Snow." If he struggles...well, I guess the precendent there would be Dustin Pedroia, but I think if Theo was as high on Lowrie as he was on Pedroia, Lugo wouldn't be on the team.

In any case, I'm not worried. Lugo has a reason to come back strong and Lowrie is tearing the cover off the ball in Spring Training and setting himself up for a nice start next month. Let the competition continue, I say; we win no matter what.

Do the Sox Have Better Chemistry Than the Yanks?

Shotgun Spratling of The Blue Workhorse recently shot me an email to alert me to the site's preview of the 2009 Red Sox. As far as conclusions go, it's not too surprising: our team is good, our team has some question marks, if our team overcomes their question marks, they'll probably beccome the best of the best for this year. What did jump out at me was the lede from the second paragraph of the preview: "The Red Sox have better chemistry than the Yankees do and that allows them to play well together."

Whether or not you believe chemistry has an impact on team performance is a contentious issue, but not one that I'm going to address here apart from saying that a congenial workplace is usually a more enjoyable place to get work done and that can lead to better performance. That said, even outside of the world of statheads and traditionalists, people who study management haven't come to a complete agreement about the relationship between chemistry and productivity. However, even if you do happen to believe that players who work together well win more ball games, you have to question whether or not Blue Workhorses's statement is still true in 2009.

In 2003 and 2004, the Sox rode their reputation as a group of fast and loose ballplayers into the annals of Winning Teams With Great Chemistry. The reputation is still there - or so it seems, if a sports blog is including it as part of a team preview - but the steady attrition of players from those teams to other ball clubs makes that judgment feel superficial. Think about it: if you were to name the loosest guys on the Sox, who would you pick beyond Ortiz and Papelbon. Youkilis and Pedroia are more crazy than loose, Lugo/Lowrie is a non-entity, Lowell is laid back, and everyone else - if they've established a presence at all - seems to prefer to let their bat or their glove do the talking. It's not a bad thing, but in terms of measurement I don't think this team has better chemistry than the workmanlike Yankees...I think it's about the same.

Smoke and Mirrors

Joy of Sox notes that the Lugo/Lowrie competition for shortstop is just a facade, presumably to keep all us peons jumping while Lugo consolidates his position of power behind the scenes. If this news is true, it certainly explains Lugo's recent comments to the press, but I really hope the brass keep the screws on Lugo through the duration of Spring Training. Robin's "Julio Lugo can eat my nuts" tag got two uses last year and that's two uses more than any of us wanted to see.

Julio Lugo is a Cocky, Cocky Man

Hey Lugo: your cockiness is certainly a good sign for someone who's about to start fighting their way out of a bench job. However, before you go claiming victory, I'd like to point out one thing: before pulling your quadriceps in July, your line was .268/.355/.330 with an OPS+ of 78, which - besides being the sort of putrescence that made me cheer for your removal on a regular basis - is laughable when you consider that your replacement, Jed Lowrie, hit .245/.337/.384 with an OPS+ of 90...and he had a tear in his wrist.

Let me put this in a separate paragraph, because it's so delicious it has to be tasted by itself: a guy with a bad wrist who was in so much pain by the end of the season that he'd entered a significant slump that dropped his OPS by over 200 points still had better overall numbers than you did when you were healthy. Yeah, I'd say that shortstop job is a lock for you.

Not.

Whatcha Talkin' 'Bout, Willis?

John Farrell is a no go with the Mariners coaching, announcing that he's withdrawn his name from consideration. It's a good thing, too, because we're going to need him: the Sox are thinking a Lugo for Willis trade with the Tigers (thanks to Joy of Sox for the tip). I remember a time when the mere idea of seeing Willis suit up in a Sox uniform had me declaring AL East locks; two years later, I'm thinking it'd be a good way for the Sox to drop a part that's outlived its usefulness and grab a pitcher who could be another Bartolo Colon...a younger, lighter weight Bartolo Colon who doesn't eat his way on to the DL (seriously: almost three months for back stiffness? How badly do you have to beat yourself up to do that at age 35?) or stomp off to the Dominican in a huff before the playoffs.

While it's true the D-Train struggled most of this year after hurting his knee in April, or that many of his stats - particularly against righties - have been on the decline even without his poor 2008 campaign, there's some hope: Average Against and BABIP have both fallen, K/9 is particularly good against lefties, HR/9 is really good against lefties...and the guy's only 26, with plenty of time to turn his career around. Unless there's some chance we'll be able to trade Lugo for a catcher, I say Willis is worth a rider. Your thoughts?

And that’s the Ballgame

So I return to blogging (as the season ends) with the wondrous report that the Yankees limp back home, losers of the last game of the season thanks to the bases loaded extra inning single by rising star (nah) Jonathan Van Every. The walkoff was an exciting end for an arduous regular season… but I fear that is the ONLY good news this evening.

Latest reports from the Boston Herald (so grain of salt warnings are in place) state that Josh “I own the Postseason” Beckett will be unavailable in the ALDS due to an oblique strain. Like beating the Angels wasn’t already going to be hard enough, now the Sox don’t even have the big gun himself to roll out Wednesday night.

So the 2008 Postseason will start without Lowell (potentially for the whole thing), J.D Drew (maybe for pinch hitting), Lugo (thankfully for the whole thing) and now possibly Beckett. This situation sucks so hard I swear it was accidentally created by CERN’s Large Hadron Collider.

But HEY…the bright side is the right side. The playoffs are finally here (unless you are in the AL Central) and we might even see the musical posts make a comeback. Everyone likes music… unless it’s the Sound of Silence coming from the Red Sox World Series chances…

Crap in a hat…

UPDATE: Francona spoke about Beckett tonight and it looks like he will pitch game 3 against the Angels if he is well enough... hold on to your butts.

Does the Color of Your Sox Matter?

With Lowell going on the DL, the Red Sox are put in an interesting situation. I’m not talking about roster moves or who is going to pick up the offense… I’m talking about the lack of racial diversity in the lineup. Wednesday night, the Red Sox had a 100% white infield. That’s almost unheard of in the diverse landscape of today’s Major League Baseball.

Think about it. The Sox have Ortiz, Lowell, Coco, Lugo, Cora and Ellsbury as the only non-white (fully white… I think there is some mixing in there) position players on the Red Sox roster. The pitching staff isn’t any better with only Delcarmen, Lopez, Oki and Dice-K fitting the diversity criteria.

Race is a touchy subject and as a New Englander, I approach the issue with some trepidation and a whole ton of liberal guilt. However, that doesn’t mean I can’t make an observation right? I mean look at this team and the moves they have made over the last few years: replacing Pedro with Schilling, Hanley Ramirez for Beckett, Lugo gave way to Jed Lowrie and most recently Manny was traded for Bay. You could make the argument that Theo was trying to create the master race on Yawkey Way!

But only if you were an idiot.

This doesn’t mean ANYTHING really. I just thought it was interesting that a town (Boston) that gets a bad rap about racism suddenly has a team that looks like they could have come over on the Mayflower… ok maybe not… but you know what I mean. Boston has some race issues in its past that it is still trying to get over and maybe having a team that looks like the Anti-Celtics racially isn’t the best idea marketing-wise.

I guess my biggest (and only serious) criticism is that the front office has lately taken some big steps in the Asian markets (getting Dice-K for big bucks) while neglecting black and Latin fan bases. Is this a purposeful act? Absolutely not, but I still think some of the Sox management should tap into an ever growing fan base. And isn't baseball the game that brought all peoples together? Can't we bring that back?

Besides, it’s kinda sad to see Papi have nobody to complete is 7 step hand shakes with after a big homerun.

Jed Lowrie is a Lugo Upgrade, Please Keep Him

Bit of a slow news day, I guess, because the Herald decided to remind us of the existence of Jed Lowrie, "plugging" - as they put it - the hole at shortstop left by Julio Lugo and his DL stint. I think the Herald's being a little generous: saying that Lugo's departure left a hole in the lineup and on the field implies that we're actually missing the only player in Keep Your Sox On history who's managed to get his own hate tag. So much for Lugo, but besides being a breath of fresh air, how good has Lowrie been in comparison?

Surprise, surprise: that breeze you're feeling isn't imaginary. Lugo's hitting 19 percent worse than the average player in 2008; Lowrie, 2 percent better than average. Limiting the data to the 13 games he's started since Lugo's blessed departure (the length of time, I feel, that he's really been able to start proving himself), Lowrie's BA/SLG/OBP looks even more attractive: .317/.400/.415, far above what Lugo's put up for the year. Terry Francona calls Lowrie "Bill Mueller-esque," a comparison that - beyond its connotations for a possible Green Lantern-like passing of the Pro moniker to Lowrie at some point in the future - speaks well for Lowrie's success as a hitter, particularly taking Mueller's better years into account. There's also Lowrie's error-free defense, with its (much) higher fielding percentage topped on the same range factor. Overall, it's a compelling package for an upgrade, further floated by Lowrie's age: he's 24. Lugo's 32. Lugo's best days are behind him; Lowrie's got reams of potential. Maybe Lugo will be part of a late-season deal when he comes off the DL? Is that too much to hope?

Game 96: Gods For a Day

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 12, Baltimore Orioles 1

That's a little more like it! .300 team hiding in the corpse of a .400 team indeed.

Look over the headlines today and Kevin Youkilis' first grand slam is at the top of every story, which put me in a contemplative mode about the nature of grand slams. Statistically, knocking in four runs with one swing gets different results depending on your metric: batting average goes up two points, on-base percentage not at all, slugging percentage - the measurement of hits expanded to include total bases per hit - up a more appreciable eight points. If in the unlikely chance that the next ten years or so sees Youkilis hit a large number of grand slams - enough to catch up Manny, for example - history will mark this first fully-loaded moonshot as the start of a rare accomplishment whose category leaders stand in the middle twenties.

But some percentage increases and membership in a club of fortunate home run hitters just about sets the limit on the scope of the statistical value of a grand slam, and there's only so much value we can assign to a hit that we couldn't even tease out of a stat line in fifty years. To take the argument one step further, the grand slam didn't even score Boston's winning run: Manny's two-run homer in the first took the honors by striking what eventually became the fatal blow.

Psychologically, however, a grand slam is huge; a multi-faceted event that can momentum in an instant. Remember the grand slam Vlad Guerrero hit in the last game of the 2004 ALDS? That one hit recharted the course of the game, knocked the Sox off of their cruise control to series victory and gave the Legend of David Ortiz a huge boost. Another example: last fall's $14 millon grand slam, the most memorable moment of the American League playoffs. 50 years from now, mention the 2007 post-season and J.D. Drew's untimely hit will come to mind - and that hit was only a contributor to a non-clinching win. We love our grand slams: they encapsulate moments of sometimes surpreme tension, validating the risk of loading the bases without scoring runs, granting the sublime pleasure of big gifts in big packages. We hate it when the opposing team hits a grand slam: those same moments of tension reversed, hoping and praying that our pitcher can escape the jam with little or no damage. When the big hit comes and the runs score, it's a gut punch, creating what feels like an insurmountable lead out of nothing in course of a couple of seconds.

But most of all we love our grand slams for the instant hero status they grant the men who hit them. Legendary batsman or journeyman stick handler, these men not only accomplished the difficult feat of hitting a baseball several hundred feet out of the confines of a field, but did so with the added pressure of potential runs waiting for the chance to come home. Achieving the mental focus to ignore that pressure, focus on their task, and find the right mistake to drive up and away gifts these men with the halo of clutch hitting, makes them gods for a day. Not too bad for a guy who happened to be at the right place at the right time.

Julio Lugo: out four to six weeks with a torn quadriceps. Note to Jed Lowrie: many a ballplayer has jumpstarted a career out of opportunities like this one.

Game 90: Silver Lining?

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 1, New York Yankees 2

I'm a little conflicted. On one hand, if we're going to lose a game, at least it was a exciting one with a nail-biting finish. On the other hand, Julio Lugo just struck out with the tying run 90 feet away - with the bases frickin' loaded! - after the Sox squandered two chances to break down Rivera and score the second run they needed to push the game into extra innings - or at least the bottom of the ninth. So yeah, little conflicted, a little unsure about how to handle what just went down. Might feel a little better if Sean Casey could play shortstop; I'll take his lack of history against Rivera over Lugo's poor history. He can't though, so I'll take that disappointment and aim it somewhere else.

I know: I'll focus on the positives. Pitching, for example. Masterson might not have won today's game, but not for lack of trying. He might have even come away with the victory if he had kept the ball out of the air more often, or not hit batters like they were going out of style, but still, two runs is nothing to sneeze at. Good Red Sox starting pitching is nothing new though, and these days I'm far more likely to dwell on a poor start than crow about a good one - no need to get repeatative, after all. But starting pitching isn't what's got my blood going today; I'm all up about the relief corps. Mike Timlin, specifically.

Mike Timlin (and his snappy comebacks) came on in the eighth for his first relief appearance since coming off the DL yesterday. His job: keep the Yankees from scoring another run so the Sox could come on in the ninth and blow three chances - ahem - have a shot of taking the lead. His success rate: 100 percent. Bottom third of the linup to be sure, with three guys hitting a combined .241, but since we're so desperately focused on staying positive, I'll take Timlin's successful return as a silver lining. Every comeback has to start somewhere, right?

Game 88: A Chance to Refuel

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 7, New York Yankees 0

I never thought I’d say this: Thank God for the break the Sox got here playing the Yankees. Going head to head against bruisers like the Astros and Rays really can take it out of you. It takes a team like the Yankees to sure up your bullpen and let some energy drain. Goodness knows there isn’t much drama in the Bronx…

Look I’m taking the high ground here. I’m not doing any Madonna jokes, no Lenny Kravitz comments and nothing at all on awful mustaches. I’m not even bashing the Yanks for blowing it in the last season in their historic park. But please excuse me while I give them one in the ribs for not showing up to the rivalry.

Pettitte vs Lester looked like a mismatch, but I guessed the wrong way. While the Yankee ace got tagged fro 6 runs, Lester held fast for the duration. He remained low on the pitch count, only walked 2 (both in the first) and blanked the Yankees in his first start in New York with an amazing 9 inning performance.

On the other side of the scoreboard, Pettitte looked very hittable and the Sox jumped on him early and often. Lugo was the only Boston starter without a hit and big nights from Jacoby, Drew and Crisp allowed the Sox to coast into victory lane.

Am I a little disappointed that the vitriol and fury has diminished a bit from this rivalry? I guess. But honestly, with the way the Red Sox have been playing and the position they are in right now, I am just relieved they have a chance to get a little break.

Game 87: Crippled and Broken

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 6, Tampa Bay Rays 7

Tonight's post inspired by this song.

It's funny - in a totally unfunny, knock your teeth out sort of way - but I'm at a loss to say what the worst part of tonight's game was. I've narrowed it down to three choices; please help me out by voting in the comments (you can also feel free to suggest your own). It'll be like a little game we play to assuage our angst and keep from putting limbs through walls in frustration. Fun!

1. Julio Lugo's hard, totally illegal slide into second base in the top of the fourth inning, trying to break up a double play. Lugo was so far out of the basepaths when he hit the skids that the umpires ruled Jacoby Ellsbury out at first anyway, ending the inning and taking away a run that had just crossed the plate. Had that run scored, we might still be playing this game right now. It's possible that with a legal slide Ellsbury would have been out anyway - that'd be the idea behind the ruling - but Lugo's used up pretty much all of his store of good will and therefore doesn't get the benefit of the doubt. Next stop: Jose Offerman territory. Woo!
   
   
2. Terry Francona's decision to do a hit and run two plays in a row with Varitek at the plate in the ninth. We all love Tek, but while line drives are his speciality, it's not like they're anywhere close to his most common plate result. Running the play the first time was a good way to surprise the Rays - and it almost worked - but two times in a row, with Mike Lowell at first and outs in short supply, well, that was just foolish. Kinda move Grady Little would pull, and we don't like to see that.
   
   
3. The bullpen. Need I say more? Another meltdown courtesy of our trial-by-fire setup guys. Okajima's appearance so early in the game was disconcerting, but I guess they've got his ego on bed rest and a heart rate monitor right now and needed a lower pressure situation to get him a shot of self-confidence. How's that reliever market looking?

You'll have to excuse me now; I'm going to go have a small heart attack and pace the floor for a little while. Who's ready for the Yankees?

Game 76: Short at the Generator

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4, St. Louis Cardinals 5

Rain-drenched triple bases loaded just-missed fest with a last-second failed comeback? My favorite! But despite being powered by Celtic green and channeling the spirit of Milli Vanilli through the lip-synching talents of Papelbon and Delcarmen, there was not quite enough love for the Boston bats last night. However, Mike Lowell's right: this lineup is allowed to have this kind of short in the power circuit once or twice a season because of the most of the time, they'll either score the runs to put the team on top, or just get out pitched. The occasional lapse into no man's land in between is permitted, but don't make it a habit. We're all still recovering from the heart damage we suffered in 2004. Also: Julio Lugo, you're not allowed to crow about your first home run of 2008 when you make two more errors in the same ball game. Just not cool.

So, Curt Schilling - how about that? I admit to complete surprise about the need for surgery, mainly because modern medicine seems to keep throwing us softballs when it comes to athlete injuries. A player (or a Boston player, anyway) might be out for a few weeks or even a month or two, but "season ending" hasn't been a much-heard term for Red Sox Nation in the past few years. So season ending/career ending is a bit of a shock. I just figured even with the setbacks, rehab was still going to be the way to go and Schilling would be back for the playoffs when we really needed him.

Schilling claims he has no regrets; that he's not pissed, but I think that's BS: he's working the crowd the way he always does, and either he's planning on coming back with whatever contending team will take him, or he's absolutely ripped that history's judgment is going to be that he's the guy who pushed the stakes a little too far and flamed out in an awkward way. So, to recap: either I'm delusional, or Schilling's not done with the public eye in Boston by a long shot.