Someone Has Red Sox Voodoo Dolls, And They Are Working

Youuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuk... is now on the DL. So is Mike Cameron (but he can stay there for the rest of the year).

That's right. The number 4 hitter. Our clean up guy. The most consistent hitter. The "soul" to Pedroia's "heart" of the team--Kevin Youkilis--is on the 15 day disabled list with a torn thumb muscle and may need surgery. The team is seeking a second medical opinion, but if surgery happens, he is done for the year.

Ugh.

There are not words in the English language to capture the angst produced by the sheer volume of injuries experienced in 2010. Incredu-ludi-crous? Someone in Pelham or Patterson or Port St. Lucie has Red Sox voodoo dolls and knows exactly how to use them. There is no other reasonable explanation for the coincidental circumstances here. Two players on the same team have major thumb injuries in the same season? Two players had rib injuries? Two players have had major foot injuries? There are nagging back injuries and obliques and even mononucleosis!

There are mystical, secretive forces at play. Dare I say, evil forces? Yes. Someone has voodoo dolls with knife-sharp pins. Someone... Anyone with information on the location of these dolls should contact the Massachusetts State Police or Joey McIntyre [If you have not seen the brilliant Masshole spoof of Mad Men, you are missing out].

But don't tell that to Mike Lowell. Lowell is the beneficiary of Youkilis' bad-finger fortune and will get the call to play first base. Last night, Lowell hit the first pitch in the Monster seats while he was getting a standing ovation. It was a great moment, and as Remy said on the NESN broadcast, probably the best moment of the year for the team.

Lowell is a fan favorite, and hell, I love the man's history with this team, but I'm not going to say he should have been playing the whole year. I'm not going to jump on that BS bandwagon that forgot how hard it was for him to run down the first baseline last year or the countless game inning double plays he hit last year. His hip injury was severe and the newly discovered thumb injury in early 2010 was enough to keep GMs across baseball away. He was supposed to go to the Rangers. Now, he's playing first base until Youk can make it back. Go get 'em, Mikey!

In the meantime, keep your (no pun intended) fingers crossed for Youk. We will need him down the stretch.

Lowell, a classy guy, had this to say about taking over for the injured Youk:

I think this is not a day for us to be happy. Our best hitter has a serious injury. I don't think that's ever a good thing. I don't get any joy out of getting playing time when someone gets hurt. With Youkilis out of the lineup, you're not a better team. He has been our most consistent hitter and over the last three years he has arguably been one of the best hitters in the league.

One last note, Josh Beckett has been pitching well.

Yes, he hit a few batters last night, but his pitching was solid overall. He gave up only 3 hits, struck out 8 and went 8 innings before he was thrown out in a bench clearing situation for running on the field after Cleveland threw behind Adrian Beltre. I honestly do not think Beckett thre at anyone intentionally last night. That may sound bias, but I am not afraid to call a guy like Beckett out when I see it.

Beckett is coming back to form.

For Beckett, It's All About the Curveball Cheese

Josh Beckett's return tonight against the Mariners is going to be watched with trepidation and curiosity.

In my mind, I'm looking for one major thing: Can he throw his curveball 12 to 6 with downward, swing-and-miss tilt? If he lives on the fastball alone this summer is going to get a whole lot worse for this team than it already is... It's not as if the entire season is in the hands of one guy with all the injuries, but Beckett and his big contract extension are very disconcerting if he cannot turn it around.

Lester is a stud on Cy Young pace, but is he as good as Cliff Lee, David Price or Carston Charles down the stretch with the current bullpen? That will be tough... Buchholz has some expected rust at present, but based on his first half, I think he bounces back with a very good season. Lackey has pitched well in the last week, and Dice K had a very nice game on Monday against the A's, but knowing how inconsistent they have both been, it's hard to know where they are heading.

As far as trade deadline stuff, the bullpen HAS to be dealt with as soon as freaking possible, please. The guy I think who is a probable target will be very unpopular with fans, but I think could make a nice splash with the team: Kyle Farnsworth. Yes, the goggle-guy and a former Yankee we all loved to watch implode. He has some of the best numbers for potentially available relievers on a team--the Royals-- that is not in the division, wants scrubs for their farm system and has a history of making deals with Theo and crew.

Don't believe me? Read Krasnick's (ESPN) take on the bullpen market and tell me Farnsworth's numbers are not the best choice here? At least he has playoff and Al East division experience and is a major upgrade over what is there now... Please send Ramon Ramirez away as soon as possible.

Make sure to read this very well done article by Jeremy Lundblad of ESPN on Beckett's stats. He contends it's the changeup that has been hurting Beckett in 2010, but Beckett has never been much of a changeup pitcher in my mind. Lundblad wrote:

In 2009, opponents hit just .191 on at-bats ending with a changeup. This season, it's up to .500. That includes a .563 mark against lefties, who hit just .171 against the pitch in 2009. Beckett allowed only four extra-base hits off his changeup last season, but has already allowed three in just eight starts in 2010. Meanwhile, after fanning 17 on the changeup in 2009, he's yet to do it once this season.

Hard to call a pitch in the 89 to 90 MPH range a changeup when the fastball is 94 to 95 on a good day. His curve has been his out pitch for a long time. But a flat pitch in the low 90s or a hanging breaking ball are too easy for major league hitters to blast, so whatever you want to call them, it simply cannot be those kind of pitches.



Until then, we watch nervously and see if Beckett can return to form. Please throw the curve and make their knees buckle.


[Image by SoxyLady via Flickr cc 3.0]

The Towel, And Where to Throw It... If At All

If you've talked to me over IM or in person about the current state of the Red Sox right now I would probably tell you in all seriousness "I expect them to be about 9 games back by next week."

Where I once saw resiliency, I now see strikeouts;  Where I once saw a laser show, I now see a fading, fizzling ball of barely-flickering gas.

Losing three of four at home after the All-Star Break to the first place team in the AL West doesn't help. Lester losing on sloppy defense and a close call at home (with an anemic offense)? Ugh.

The injuries are serious and there are simply too many of them. The bullpen is undeniably awful. The always changing lineup is not working. Our outfield scrubs--Nava, Patterson, McDonald, Cameron-- are mediocre players. John Lackey is a waste of money. And even with the trade deadline coming, it's very hard to expect Theo and management to give up the farm that easily--and for whom?

Am I to be enamored of Beckett coming back later this week in Seattle? Who the hell knows if this guy can pitch anymore? He gave up several runs to AAA players on Saturday. Is that encouraging? A guy who catches has a bad broken thumb on his catching thumb and can barely clutch a bat... Doesn't really add up.

I am sure to be overreacting; I am sure to be fixating on those issues that keep me thinking this is virtually impossible to overcome in a few month's time. Sometimes you run in to a good pitcher (like C.J. Wilson yesterday... Did anyone see how bad he made Ortiz look at the plate yesterday? No wonder lefties are hitting under .100 against him.)

Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe thinks this is far from over. Abraham writes in his latest column:

The reality is the Red Sox are 3.5 games out of a playoff spot with 70 left to play... Meanwhile, Andy Pettitte is out 4-6 weeks with a groin tear and A.J. Burnett's 4.99 ERA has him punching walls. Derek Jeter's OPS is a few points better than Marco Scutaro's. The Yankees are a good team, but they're not as good as they were last year, so do not discount the division. Jeremy Hermida will be back Thursday. Josh Beckett returns on Friday. Victor Martinez played catch today and figures to get a little better every day. The spring-training lineups will start to disappear soon enough. You also have to be encouraged by a bullpen that now includes Jonathan Papelbon, Daniel Bard, Manny Delcarmen and Michael Bowden in key roles instead of Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez and that combustible crew.

Abraham makes some good points, but the question marks outweigh the certainties by a wide margin to me. The Yankees were willing to rent Cliff Lee for three months; They will make a starting pitching move at the deadline, especially with Pettitte on the DL.

This rag tag Red Sox team is headed West and has little resting time. This team has been only ok on the road, with slightly more wins than losses (22-20). Some say take comfort they are playing Oakland and Seattle.

I don't. I will be rooting them on all the way, but the reality is tough to swallow right now.

I hope I am wrong. I really do.

Things Begin to Look Up

Don't look now, but the Sox have finally started to click since I wrote that half-facetious post last Wednesday, beating the Twins twice at Fenway before going back on the road to take two of three from Philly and the first of three from scary-good Tampa Bay. Over those six games the offense has remained efficient if not overwhelmingly scary, converting about 42% of the baserunners into runs while hitting .261/.315/.438 and generally beating their opponents by four or five runs. The pitching has (re)turned into something special, with a marvelous 2.04 ERA and 0.94 WHIP against three teams that lead their respective divisions. For the past week, at least, it's been less about struggling to remain a middling team and proving that the 2010 Sox really can run with the big dogs.

There are individual achievements to celebrate, too. Ellsbury is back in the line up after an absence of about a month and a half, though his OPS of .133 over his first 15 plate appearances indicates he's got some work to do before his stroke reappears. Big Papi has reached base safely in his past nine games and is hitting .408 with 5 home runs and an OPS of 1.363; over the same time period, Kevin Youkilis has five home runs of his own and an OPS of 1.485. I got all kinds of excited seeing them hit back to back last night, just imagining the possibilities. The team is nowhere near close to being able to call things safe - not with the Rays so far ahead, and not with Toronto on a surge of their own - but for the first time since early April these Red Sox feel like a real team.

Daisuke Deals Darts in 6-1 Win Over Toronto

Most people in New England were probably watching the Celtics make Lebron James look like some below-average corporate league player in Cleveland last night and decided to skip watching Matsuzaka's start at Fenway. Or they were watching Lost.

It's too bad because the man-who-wiggles-his-bum-on-the-mound had a very live fastball last night with late movement and swing and miss action.

Matsuzaka struck out 9 Blue Jay batters and gave up 1 run on 3 hits over 7 innings with ZERO walks. You heard it correct. Not a one. He threw 106 total pitches, 71 for strikes. Additionally, he had 5 1-2-3 innings out of the 7, so an excellent and efficient outing against a team that has been hitting.

He did not nibble. He attacked the strike zone much like he did in the first few years in Boston. It is a very good sign.

Will it last? Who the hell knows with this guy, but seeing that many fastballs being thrown and watching batters miss tells me he found something in his delivery to key on. If he can keep batters off base, then he doesn't need to pitch out of the stretch--something I believe gets him out of his rhythm at least in the last few seasons.

On the offensive front, Jason Varitek caught Dice and hit a monster shot in to the upper deck of the parking lot across Lansdowne Street for a 2 run homer. Sox were able to muster 6 runs against Dana Eveland for an excellently pitched game. Ramirez and Okajima were given the ball in the last two innings, so Bard and Papelbon were able to keep their arms fresh.

Today is a day game at Fenway with Wakefield on the mound. Light rain is expected, so hopefully they get it off.

Note: Josh Beckett was checked out yesterday and the brass says he's got nothing more than back spasms. My prediction on the DL is obviously premature, but I will still not be surprised if everyone else is pitching well that they may let him rest the back and actually go on the DL for a week. When will he start next? They aren't saying right now.

[Image by Dave Delay via Flickr cc 3.0]

Beckett Now Has Back Spasms from Taking BP?

Stirring up unnecessary controversy is not my thing, but I do find the timing of announcing the recent rotation moves with Beckett to be a little fishy. Good fishy, but suspicious nonetheless.

Let's be clear: I'm all for the moves. Put the man on the DL if you want to take him out of the pressure and focus on mechanics. The DL is not being openly discussed yet with the media, but I expect it is happening between Theo, Farrell and Tito already. I think it's coming. I do not think Theo and crew are willing to keep putting a guy they signed for four more years (at $18 mil per) back out there right now.

I will be honest, the back spasms thing feels like a convenient story and I totally understand why they come up with these white lies. It's to keep the media off his back and out of his head. His self-frustration is at an all time high. There is no doubt in my mind he threw at Jeter to force in a run. A guy who does that needs some of the pressure of being called "the ace" released, and it's the kind that can only come from working side sessions and possibly facing Triple A or Double A batters.

Work on the mechanics, build the confidence back up. Shut him down for a week or two. Yes. Do it.

All weekend and through yesterday, Tito and crew have been saying there is nothing physically wrong with Beckett, but that there were some mechanical things to work on in a side session, particularly with his curveball and his sidestep. Ok, so Beckett will skip the Toronto game on Wednesday (who has seen Josh frequently), Wakefield goes back in to the rotation and Beckett would pitch Friday in Comerica against the Tigers. Sure. Sounds reasonable.

"The additional side for Josh is to reinforce, particularly out of the stretch, him getting back to the proper balance point and not getting too spread out to where he loses his balance on his fastball,'' Farrell told ESPN's Gordon Edes. "When he gets in proper position, his curveball is less readable to an opposing hitter. Part of this at times is his constant use of the slide step. That can cause some of the havoc we're trying to correct.''

Then, evidently, Beckett was taking batting practice last night in the indoor cages (for inter-league games a couple of weeks from now--yes, that works) and tweaked his back, and, oh hey by the way, he had been feeling some pain in his back over the weekend, but no one knows when exactly. During the game? After? No one really knows.

Fine. Whatever. I think we know why this is going on. He's in a extremely negative place. After the Yankees debacle Friday, Beckett was asked by reporters how we would describe his season up to this point. His answer? One word: S-H-I-T.

Bottom line: They want to get Beckett right, and I applaud them for taking whatever action they need to make this work. If the media buy this back spasm thing, then fantastic. Let the man sort it out.

I could totally be wrong and the story is true. I do not hope there are back spasms because that would mean the next 4 years are going to include frequent trips to the DL.

Here's an interesting thing to note from last night's game from Amalie Benjamin of Boston.com:

Former director of performance enhancement Don Kalkstein was in the clubhouse before the game. Kalkstein used to be the Sox’ sports psychologist, and still consults with the club.

Perhaps this consultant was in the indoor batting cages advising Beckett on his swing?

[Image by dgaproductions via Flickr cc 3.0]

Beckett May Need A Baseball Shrink

The first three innings for Josh Beckett at Fenway last night were the best three innings I have seen him pitch this season. His fastball was crisp, his cutter had late life and his curveball had crazy 12 to 6 tilt. The aggressive Texan had 6 strikeouts through 3 innings against some very good hitters in the Yankees.

One of the biggest issues he has had this season is with his secondary pitches, particularly his curveball. When it does not have the big vertical hook, it flattens out in the middle of the plate and becomes a 77 MPH batting-practice spinner. I actually thought that pitch was mostly working last night (as evidenced by nice ratio of swing and miss strikes), but a few times (as in the Swisher 3-run homer), it simply disappeared. Despite how poorly this game ended up for him, seeing that curveball dive to the dirt against lefties is encouraging. Remember, he did have 8 strikeouts last night (matching his season high).

The question is, can Beckett put aside all the negativity and bad feelings he has about himself and simply pitch to his ability? In seven starts, he has one win. He should have 3. Two of his three starts were lost by the bullpen. The other four starts, well, they have been horrid.

Like Buchholz with runners on base, Beckett seems to lose some of his trust and confidence and tries to overcompensate by throwing his fastball harder. Beckett has always been an emotional pitcher, and when he is on, he is able to harness it effectively without panic.

Right now, Beckett is in panic mode.

His frustration with not making a few pitches got kind of ugly last night when he pegged Derek Jeter in the back with the bases loaded. That one was obvious. Many people will argue that he tried to hit Cano, but I don't buy it. He had been throwing inside on almost everyone last night, and the cutter to Cano missed and hit him on the knee. Who goes after a guy at the knee? It was a fluke.

He seemed upset by crossing up Varitek with a fastball that hit Tek in that upper shoulder region where there is little protection (when Tek actually called for a curve ball). He was upset at giving up hits, walking a few guys. The whole thing got out of hand quickly with him. I will not be surprised when one of the Yankees pitchers hits Pedroia or Youkilis or Drew in this series. Expect it. It will happen.

As much as I like Francona, my biggest gripe for years has been how long a leash he gives his starters when they are obviously struggling and need to be taken out. Beckett needed to be bailed out after hitting Jeter. He should have been reprimanded privately for intentionally taking his frustration out by giving up runs. If a base open, that is one thing. But with the bases loaded? Unacceptable. Throwing in the towel is unacceptable.

Luckily, this hasn't bitten Francona when it really matters all that much (no Grady Little moment in the playoffs or World Series--maybe Masterson in the playoffs against the Rays in 2008).  But when it comes to Josh Beckett, he may need to revisit his policy on trying to give his "ace" confidence.

Beckett is not an ace right now, and he may need a little time off to figure his mental stuff out. His pitching stuff is not far from being there. He needs to trust that he has it and can get out of jams. Right now, it's pretty obvious he is unable to handle much pressure. It's time to address it head on.

What's the over/under on Beckett winding up on the DL?

[Image by Jeff Valois via Flickr CC 3.0]

Seeds of Sox Strengths Starting to Sprout

Pitching. Defense. Timely hitting. It's starting to sizzle a bit at Fenway in the way Theo and crew drew it up.

It's been doom and gloom in the baseball column of Sportstown, USA, but the last four games have me feeling a whole lot better than last weekend's meltdown at Camden Yards.

Last weekend's series sweep by B-more was a crying shame. Dice K had it working for four innings in his debut, but then, it became batting practice... It was awful to watch an already-dejected Wakefield enter from the bullpen only to let the O's think they were the Rays. Poor Wake. He may end up back in the rotation if Matsuzaka can't figure it out.

There were, however, two bright spots over the weekend. Two homers in one game from Ortiz and an improved Josh Beckett. Yes, they lost the game he pitched on Sunday, but Beckett pitched nicely: 7 innings, 2 earned runs, 0 walks, 6 strikeouts. Considering what it has been coming from the big Texan, I will take that all day long and then some.

Back at Fenway, it's been a very nice week of beating up on the Angels with the bats and letting the top starters do their thing. Last night, John Lackey threw the best I've seen all season. His fastball moved and it sunk. Lackey's line: 7 innings, 2 hits, 1 earned run, 2 walks, 12 ground ball outs.

Lester was dominate again: 8 innings, 5 hits, 1 run, 2 walks, 5 strikeouts. Buchholz pitched decently, though, he still looks very timid out there at times and gets rattled when there are men on base. His biggest issue in my observation is the same one Beckett has had this season: Throwing strike one. He was saved by crazy offense Monday night when the bats muscled up 17 runs (with Mike Lowell going 4 for 4 with 4 RBIs).

Buch's line: 5.2 innings, 4 earned runs, 8 hits, 3 walks, 2 strikeouts.

Other key things to note: Beltre and Scutaro are showing their value on both sides of the game. Beltre has had two home runs over the last few games (his firsts of the season), and has made some excellent plays at third. Beltre hit a bomb last night to straight away center (over the camera well)  in the 8th inning to give the Sox a 3-1 lead and an insurance run.

Scutaro has been getting on base at a high clip (filling in at lead off for an injured Navajo Jewish Lawyer) and also flashing his skills up the middle and in the hole on defense. It's been refreshing to see both of these guys play up to their talents on the left side of the infield after a few weeks of questionable defense.

Beltre is hitting well-above average at .340, and Scutaro is hitting a nice .288.

So, tonight... Well, the Sox face Scott Kazmir who was good when with the Rays, but now he's all over the place. On the mound for the Fenway Faithful is Andrew Dice K and his 11.57 ERA (not fair, only one start, but damn it was ugly).

Will it be another batting practice or will our $150 million pitcher feel comfortable at home?

BTW: Ortiz hit a single and opposite field home run last night. Hope he keeps it up.

[Image by johnkreese.nomaa via Flickr cc 3.0]

Ode to the Worst Week in Red Sox Baseball in a Long Time

So many Red Sox thoughts right now, I'm overwhelmed with strange feelings.

It started with Lester's 8 innings in Tampa last week when it looked like it was a lock for a win. And then the pen collapsed. I knew then that there was something strange and eerie going on--like it was 2008 all over again and the Rays have magical powers at the Trop.

Some thoughts go to the past... Was Manny a Zenmaster in disguise, relaxing the middle of the lineup with his que-sera-sera, stoner outlook?

I despise Manny now for what he did to get traded, but I understand his value in the middle of that lineup. For all his bad traits, the guy rarely pressed. He was the equivalent of having, gulp, Mark Teixiera (say what you want about him being on the Yankees--the guy is a freaking stud).

Manny relaxed Ortiz. This is not news, it's just a fact. As Eric said to me today, "Manny is a lingering presence. Like overripe fish."

Is the silver lining that our starting pitching is very good? Is Tito for real doing these Bigelow Green Tea ads online?

Whatever the case, I haven't seen the Red Sox offense press so much in a very long time.

Youkilis who had been hitting really well on the road, suddenly lost it again over the weekend. The Jason Bay hamstring pull couldn't have come at a worse time. I love getting V-Mart, but getting him in a slump of sorts is unfortunate.

Lester and Beckett are studs. Buchholz has some things to work out, namely, throwing that fastball for strikes (and maybe going back to the mysteriously missing curveball).

First place is pretty much a goner at this point in the season, unless the Yankees pull an about face or there is some major injury to Burnett or Carston Charles. The wild card is the spot to get, and with having to go on the road in Texas and Toronto, the Sox have a lot more work to do.

The point is that it's time to relax a little, and get back to basics. Shrug off the week, and get back to taking bad pitches, hitting strikes and being patient.

ps. The Red Sox schedule is so whacked this week.. Why the hell do they go home for 4 games, then are back on the road for 6 to Texas (again) and Toronto? And looking ahead, from August 18 to 30 the Red Sox do not have one day off.

What Happened to Buchholz's Curve Ball?

Where the hell is that nasty 12 to 6 curve ball Clay Buchholz threw in 2007?

It was a knee-buckling, deer in the headlights pitch that seems to have disappeared from his repetoire.

I don't get it at all.

I've watched him try to throw it only two times in this game to the Yankees. Once, he came extremely close to hitting A-Rod in the back of the shoulder. The second time, it was very high and out of the zone.

Is he being told to throw a slider--a form of a breaking pitch with a tighter rotation--by Red Sox pitching coaches? Are they concerned about his elbow and shoulder for the long haul of his career?

There is no doubt that his change up is a great out pitch, and he can throw it on demand in any count. He is showing that as much in this game against Carston Charles in the Bronx (C.C. has a one hitter through 6 innings right now).

I seem to recall Buchholz's no hitter back in 2007 had the curve ball prominently featured (and in other games since then), but not in 2009. I also seem to recall a fastball that was closer to 97. I guess a lot can happen in two seasons.

I know he has good stuff, and he needs more major league experience, but it seems to me that some his confidence in the curve ball (and many pitches) is lost--and confidence is something this pitching staff needs desperately.

With that said, Buchholz has been able to use the changeup and the splitter well today against the Yankees. Having only given up 1 run over 5 innings, Buchholz has mixed up his pitches smartly.

I guess I am saying that when you see something like a 12-6 curveball that can jar hitters with such force, you have to keep it and throw it.

Luckily, Buch will be staying with the major league club for the remainder of the season and his experience will grow and benefit from being around the always-confident Josh Beckett and Jonathan Papelbon.

Speaking of Beckett, what a great outing he had in Friday night's 15-inning, 2-0 loss to the Yankees. I want to see this guy in another playoff game as soon as possible, but given how lifeless the Sox bats are right now (and the injuries to Bay, Dice-K, Wakefield and Lowrie, again), it's difficult to know right now if this team has what it takes to get there.

Will Josh Beckett Win 300 Games?

Beckett at the helm is a nice way to end the first half: three hits, no runs, no walks, seven strike outs, and a league-leading tie of 10 wins with teammate and fellow All-Star Tim Wakefield (himself the subject of a nice profile in today's Globe). Beckett's 2009 ERA+ is 140, 22 points higher than his career average; his WHIP is 1.149, well below his career average of 1.216, and overall he looks far more impressive than the 2 and 2 starter with the 7.50 ERA that started the year.

But yesterday's domination of the lowly Royals was more impressive than the piling up of some sweet statistics that pulled Boston to three games above New York in the AL East standings: after eight years at the major league level, Josh Beckett has amassed his 100th win. Such milestones lead to speculation, for even as we recognize that the win is a flawed statistic for measuring the value of a pitcher, we wonder - especially these days, when conventional wisdom suggests that we'll never see such winners again - whether or not Beckett will win 200 more and achieve the milestone that has helped 20 pitchers find their way into the Hall. So, will he?

First, a few assumptions:

• I'm using Beckett's winning percentage in Boston (.656) because it seems likely that he'll continue to pitch for teams of Boston's caliber (providing the support necessary for amassing a large body of wins) for the productive portion of the rest of his career.
• To be consistent, I'm using his 27 starts per year average from his four years in Boston, which is roughly consistent with what an adjusted starts per year average would be over his career.
  
• Because Beckett is a power pitcher, I'm assuming "the productive portion of the rest of his career" means 10 years, when he's 39.
  

Now, the results:

• 27 stars a year for 10 years is 270 starts.
• With a .656 winning percentage, Beckett would need to make 305 more starts to win 200 games.
• 305 is more than 270.

Not looking good, but there's some room for adjustment. For example, if you adjust the number of productive years to 12, you have 324 starts, which would be enough for more than 200 wins. If you upped the average number of starts a year to 31, you'd also have enough starts for 200 wins. If you changed the winning percentage to reflect the upcoming years of Beckett's prime, you might find enough 20 game-winning seasons to make a difference. It's a tough climb to a vaunted milestone, but Beckett might have the luck and the success to go the distance.

Exercise Caution When Dealing for Halladay

How's everyone feeling about the Roy Halladay trade possibility? I must admit I'm a little wary: not because I think Halladay will flop - unlike many of the hyped trades and signings of the past few years, Doc is worth the price, as Dave Cameron of FanGraphs demonstrates - but because the Blue Jays have two big advantages in negotiations:

1. Halladay's contract expires in 2010. As one of the New England sports papers pointed out recently, Toronto has three opportunities to deal Halladay: now, at the end of the season, or before the trade deadline next year. The size of that window gives the Jays a nice piece of leverage: they don't have to deal Halladay now if they don't get an offer they really like, because they'll have two opportunities to do so again over the next year. As an added bonus, if Toronto doesn't get a great deal before the 2010 trading deadline, they'll either make a bid to resign or get two draft picks in compensation.
   
   
2. The market demand for good pitching is enormous. Philly, Texas, St. Louis, and the Mets all have a desperate need for a pitcher of Halladay's caliber, increasing demand and allowing the Jays to charge a much higher price for his services. Combined with the time window that removes much of the pressure from Toronto to complete a deal, this increased demand for good pitching would doubtless require the Sox to part with two or three highly-touted prospects (Buchholz, Bowden, Bard) to make a deal.

I'm pretty sure I've said in the past (probably in reference to Beckett) that trading future value to obtain present value is always a good idea (although some Yankee fans might disagree), but I have to make a corollary in Halladay's case: right now, the market isn't in Boston's favor, particularly for a luxury the team would like to have, but doesn't really need. I'd hate to see the Jays become the dominant team in the AL East because the Sox gave them one too many good pieces in pursuit of a deal.

A Character Win

For obvious reasons, 2004 was a good year to start this blog, but it's had one problematic side effect: every year, I look for the game of the year, the game that channels the spirit of The Fight Game and demonstrates that deep down, the Sox have what it takes to gel as a team when they need to most. I know full well it's a fatuous exercise: even in 2004, the trade that put together the final pieces didn't happen for another seven days and team went a mediocre 8 and 6 until their big run starting August 10, but the point is to find the games that look big in retrospect right after they happen. I bring all of this discussion up because, despite the vastly different circumstances, yesterday's win has that feel.

Beckett and Varitek are calling it a character win, which also seems appropriate, in the way that the turnaround win against the Indians in the ALCS in 2007 was a character win: the Sox buckled down, grabbed whatever it was that made them such a good team, and won. The 2009 Orioles might be a far weaker team than the 2007 Indians and the game a fairly meaningless regular season contest, but the desire to revenge the prior day's humiliation and reestablish what seems to be the dominant order in Baltimore proved an effective understudy for the 07's unnerving possibility of losing out of the playoffs. Beckett recovered sufficiently to keep his team in the game and his team did the rest - even if they had to go to the brink a few times to do so. If the character of the 2009 Red Sox is to win when winning really matters, I like our post-season chances better and better.

Beckett Is Back

The emotional thrill ride of David Ortiz, the inherent drama and hype of the Sox vs. That Team from the Bronx (and their newly bolstered bad-guy rotation) could not have been captured better, Mr. Hanson.

While the Yankees have yet to beat Fenway's Finest in 2009, the thing I loved about last night's 7-0 shutout--as much as seeing Big Papi destroy an A.J. Burnett pitch to deep, straight-away center--was that Josh Beckett freaking dominated a very hot lineup by pitching to contact for outs and going for the throat when he needed it.

Beckett's line for last night:

• 6 Innings
• 93 Pitches
• 59 Strikes
• 8 Ks
• 21 Batter's faced
• 2 BBs
• 1 Hit
• 6 Groundouts, 4 Flyouts

The first few innings saw a good amount of pitching to contact for grounders and pop-outs, but as the game progressed and runs were scored by the Sox, Beckett became more dominant, more overpowering with corner-painting fastball and 12-6 curveball. His curve was hitting both the high, low and outside parts of the plate--and he was mixing it well enough with the fastball in any count that there was little the Yankees could do, but retreat to the dugout.

There's an excellent post from Mazz on what Lester and Beckett have been doing lately with their pitching--along with some keen history. Here's a snippet about just how good Beckett was last night:

Last night, as was the case last week in Detroit, Beckett had no-hit stuff. The
only hit he allowed was an infield single to Robinson Cano in the fourth inning.
Three nights after Lester struck out 10 of the first 18 batters he faced in six
perfect innings, Beckett walked off the Fenway Park mound at the end of the
sixth inning last night having whiffed eight of the final 16 batters he faced
while allowing just three balls out of the infield.

He's now 7-2, with a 3.77 ERA and ranked 6th in the AL in strikeouts with 76.

That was an excellent one hitter against a very tough lineup, Mr. Beckett. Keep it up.

Triumph of the Yankee Killer

They had their 2003 World Series-winning veteran pitcher. We had our 2003 World Series-winning veteran pitcher. They had their monster line up, their Alex Rodriguez with his .505 slugging percentage that's not only bolstered their line up, but given the previously lacklustre Mark Teixeira the shot in the arm needed for the Yankees to claw their way into first. We had Jason Bay, whose .524/.655/1.143 line in 21 at-bats when facing pinstriped pitching has made him the Yankee Killer the Sox need to lead the charge. The stage seemed set for a showdown of epic proportions.

Oh, and we also had Big Papi.

Because while their Marlins veteran looked like he needed a GPS to find the strike zone and our Marlins veteran was taking a one hitter through six before handing things off to the Red Scare, the Yankees announcing crew was talking about the fall of David Ortiz. 'Was his batspeed down,' they wondered? 'Terry Francona said he didn't think so,' they announced, but they thought anything could be possible. There were some valid questions about when he was swinging, but the conclusion seemed to be that David Ortiz would no longer be the threat to the Yankees he had been in the past and - let's be completely honest here - he should probably consider throwing in the towel.

And that's when Burnett, who had been trying to establish Ortiz on the upper portions of the outside of the plate, came back into the heart of the zone with a 2-2 fastball. Round came the classic swing and only the previous two months' frustration put any question on what was a no-doubt home run to deepest center. Out it sailed into the night, silencing the critics (and Yankee victory hopes) for one more night even as the fans begged for a curtain call from their hero. Let me tell you: the rest of the game might have been a bit dull, but that one piece of schadenfreude was absolutely delicious.

Keeping the Faith

What a night: Lowell gets his 1,500 hit and gets tossed a few innings later for making a legimate complaint about the shape and angle of the strike zone.  Youkilis gets run over at first stretching out to make a tough play, crawls across the field towards home, and slams his glove down in frustration (right before Pedroia runs over looking like he's about to prevent a homicide) while hearts of Red Sox fans everywhere stop for a moment as the spectre of a DL trip raises his head - and it turns out he's ok.  Beckett gets through six and two-thirds without a hit and ends the night splitting five runs with the usually deadly Daniel Bard.  And Papi...

Here's the thing: I've developed a measure of fatalism about Papi that has led me to watch every one of Ortiz's at-bats as if it were his last.  Doing so last night, I'm not sure which made me happier: seeing him hit that double off of the weak-as-water Nate Robertson as part of the six-run eighth inning, or smash the 420-foot out earlier in the game.  The double looks better in the box score of course, but the long out had all of the elements of a classic Ortiz long bomb that just happened to fall in the wrong part of a very big ball park.  In other words: I'm still nowhere closer to giving up on Ortiz in 2009.

Beckett, Varitek in Strong Form Against Twinkies

Jason Varitek took one for the team today in a 3 - 1 win against the Twins.

Varitek was the dominant offensive player today with two solo home runs--the second one which was powered to the top right-center deck of the Metrodome--a long freaking way.

While those blasts were obviously a good thing in low scoring game, Tek's best move was in arguing a borderline strike on behalf of a furious Josh Beckett who had been getting that outside corner fastball to righties all day, then suddenly disappeared in the bottom of the 7th inning.

Beckett stared in while slowly walking in to the home plate umpire, turned his head to his side and cursed quite loudly. Tek, immediately recognizing the fury of his pitcher, stood up, turned to the home plate umpire Todd Tichenor and argued the inconsistency of his calls.

The pitch was outside (according the Amica pitch zone), but that's not the point... This is: Varitek was protecting the pitching staff and Beckett.

Tek knows when to stand up for his pitcher and take the heat. It was important to Beckett's future outings and the Sox pitching staff that a starter go as deep as he can and give Beckett the best possible chance for a win, especially in a week of no time off.

Tek was quickly thrown out of the game--so quick that Tito had little time to intervene. Francona had to save face and get thrown out after that so at least Tek would have some company in the visitor's clubhouse.

Beckett, for his part, was dominant today with the fastball. Here's the breakdown of Beckett who faced 27 total batters:

• 111 pitches, 69 for strikes
• 8 Ks, 4 BBs and 1 HR
• 3 Hits Allowed
• 9 groundouts, 4 fly balls
• Lowered his ERA to 4.60

While the walks were higher than he'd want, none of those free passes led to any runs. Overall, Beckett looked like he had sufficient movement on fastballs that were mostly clocked in the 94 to 95 MPH range and had a lot of swing and misses. He used his curveball effectively as needed, and had that Beckett swagger on the mound that made the likes of Joe Mauer look like a minor leaguer in the first inning.

He went right after hitters.

With Varitek's umpire-arguing sacrifice, Beckett finished the 7th with his head up and in good shape to turn the game over to Okajima then Papelbon. Both relievers gave up a hit each and struck out one batter respectively. Another save for Paps .

Sox split in Minnesota. Bring on the Blue Jays.

What's Up With Paps?

Glad we won yesterday.  Even gladder that Jeff Bailey hit that home run in the eighth to make the ultimate difference in the score, because someone in the AL East has got to keep those steam-rolling Yankees from taking first place.  The Papelbon thing?  Not so good.  

The papers of record have no speculation on what's going on with our god-like closer (although the Globe is happy to let the fans offer their thoughts), or why the guy whose WHIP hasn't gone above 1.00 since he took over the role is now flirting with a 1.40 over 21 innings and giving up home runs like he's preparing for Lent.  When we were watching the game on Saturday, Don suggested that Papelbon is pulling a Beckett and relying too much on his fastball to blow opponents away.  The numbers Papelbon has put up so far support the idea: a larger number of hits per nine, home runs per nine, and walks per nine; a low strikeout to walk ratio whose depths he hasn't plumbed since his starting days in 2005; a strikeout per nine ratio that's a touch higher than his overall total last year; these all look like the calling cards of a pitcher who's living and dying by throwing smoke, no matter how inaccurate.  

Assuming I'm correct, we're far luckier than we would be should the alternative - an injured Papelbon, slowly pitching his way on to the DL and rendering himself inactive when we need him most - be true: the guy's got three (or four) pitches; he just needs to use the offspeed stuff more to make the heat look hotter and maybe stop trying to place his pitches so much.  Of course, that kind of switch goes against the canon of dominant closers, who supposedly need no more than two pitches to wreck the competition, but I think we can all agree that having a pitcher who can the shut door without inducing heart attacks is worth breaking some traditions.

Papi's First 2009 Home Run, and Other Red Sox Items

Take that Bobby Abreu, Carlos Guillen and Russell Martin.

David Ortiz finally crushed a fastball for a home run, and to the deepest part of Fenway--straight away center.

Despite the sigh of relief from worried fans (and the missed-opportunity runs that nahmally would have been scored by all those frustrating ground outs and pop-ups), Big Papi just needed it to happen. He told the locker-room media, including Irish-afro style Shaunessy after the game:

"I got that big old monkey off my back . . . It's been hard for me. I wasn't really worried about the home runs as much as getting my swing back. I was missing pitches that I normally hit. It's crazy how things happen. I had some good swings and nothing happened. I hit this one good."

Nobody knows why or how someone gets out of that bad funk, but it was either one of two things: His Papi or my fantasy team.

"My father flew in yesterday," said Ortiz [to Irish afro-style] . "It was loose at home today and we were playing with my son. My father told me, 'It's not going to get worse than this. Get out there and have fun. Do what you know how to do.' "

I benched Ortiz after sticking by him in my utility spot in the semi-insane, AL-only auction fantasy league I have him in. Murphy's Law seems to always work when you start over analyzing numbers and letting a legend stupidly duke it out with Jason Giambi for fantasy playing time.

It was good to be wrong on this one (you're back to the utility spot).

We all knew it would happen, but as I said in the first week, he looked really slow with the bat speed and didn't look like he could it much. As the weeks progressed, Ortiz stared to hit to the opposite field when they were home, which was the sign that in the past that a blast was imminent.

But it didn't happen. And then the Sox went on the road.

Side Note: Ortiz keeps his sense of humor. Read this from Manchester, NH's Union Leader:

"Look at that!” David Ortiz said out of nowhere, interrupting his own answer
about the swing that ended his season-long home-run drought to gesture toward
the other side of the locker room. “That’s crazy!”
A dozen heads turned at
once toward the direction he was pointing. What was it? Something on one of the
TV screens? A highlight of the home run he’d hit into the center-field
bleachers, perhaps?
“It’s (pitcher Josh) Beckett naked over there in the
corner,” Ortiz said, a playful smile spreading across his face.

The Road Trip
Speaking of the road, there were some serious tough losses in Anaheim and Seattle. The one that really drove me nuts was last Sunday with bases loaded and no outs and Jason Bay in the box.

I love this mild-mannered Canadian, and I'm willing to give him huge passes because in many clutch situations, he has come through. But someone, anyone, for Remy's sake (get well, Mr. President), please hit a sacrifice fly or opposite field single.

Perhaps the lesson is that, like Papi's troubles with the long ball, patience will be rewarded. The long view is that Toronto, after Halladay, is weak, and though they have some serious offensive pop (league-leading 225 RBIs, and 3rd in HRS), but I expect them and their rookie pitching to fade.

That Other Team, Kazmir, Sox Pitching
That other team in the Boogie Down, however, is starting to show their true colors with the long ball, big run-scorinng innings and starting pitching. As the Spring transitions more directly in to Summer, the Yankees are going to be a very tough team. Despite some setbacks with A-Roid, Burnett, Sabbathia and a slow bat from Teixiera, they are starting to earn all that cash they make.

Yanks are leading the league in HRs (64). Compared that to the Sox at 47 (Sox rank 7th in the league, just below the Rays). They are just ahead of the Sox in RBIs, (212 to 209) and in Runs (225 to 218).

Happy to see the Rays are not getting it done so the Sox can focus on one thing: Getting enough wins and standings separation to get either the division or the Wild Card. The Central and West are doing a very good job right now of beating up on each other.

Scott Kazmir looks like he should be playing for the Mets. His ERA is now 7.68.

I know the Sox starters outside of Wakefield have been rough too, but you can see Beckett and Penny starting to get it figured out over their last two starts.

Looking forward to tonight's start from Lester. It's bounce back time at home with a chance to sweep.

Jed Lowrie and the Case of the Missing Arm Bone

The news about Beckett is excellent, even if the pitcher himself isn't pleased about it; the news about Lowrie has the potential to suck a high hard one, particularly if it means taking a bone out of his wrist.

Hold on a second: they want to take a bone out of his wrist? How much damage did Lowrie do to himself last year, anyway? Seriously? I'm glad the guy's got brass balls that would make Bronson Arroyo jealous by playing through kind of pain for this long, but let's all take a lesson here: if you're hurt, take care of it. Dragging ass for almost a season and then risking the removal of a bone from your arm because your wrist is ahurtin' isn't worth the loyalty you've proven.

If the worst is true and Lowrie and his dumb choices have taken him out for the better part of two seasons, I have a choice to make: since Green is still hitting above his (admittedly mediocre) career totals and Julio Lugo is the starter in waiting, do I give Lugo another chance, or become a Green man and help the mastermind fulfill his criminal dream? It's been almost a year since we started calling for Lugo's head and he's got a long way to go before he proves himself worthy...