ALDS Game 3: Seconds

ALDS Game 3: Boston Red Sox 6, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 7

It takes seconds to say good bye to the end of a season...about the time it takes for the ball to leave Pedroia's bat and fall into Aybar's glove, or Chone Figgins to walk to first base at the start of a rally that wouldn't end until it was just too late. Afterward, we can debate the hows and whys until we're blue in the face: maybe the Angels were too good, or the Red Sox were not hungry enough, or the magic that we've come to rely on to spark those magnificent come-from-behind victories is sparking another team's fire this year; but it doesn't really matter: we started with promise in the Spring, and ended with cold defeat in the waning of the year.

However, despite the dismal result, I'm grateful for two things:

1. The offense finally woke up. Even a blowout isn't as frustrating as watching opportunities to score slip away like the hours of a Sunday afternoon and for two games, slippage was all we had to look forward to. As painful as the ending was to watch, it would have been worse to end the day with no hope at all.
   
   
2. That we made it this far. I'm not going to turn into a fan for whom nothing but World Series victory is acceptable. Especially after the absolutely depressing end of the 2006 season when the wheels fell off the train long before the end of September, I'd rather face a sweep in the first round of the playoffs than nothing at all.
   

ALDS Game 2: Living Bad Dreams

ALDS Game 2: Boston Red Sox 1, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 4

When I woke up yesterday morning, I had really hoped the complete and total lack of hitting was just a one-time failure; a product of really good pitching and a really bad night. This morning, I'm starting to wonder if we're in some sort of terrible dream, where those at-bats that do turn into base runners are few and far between; where rallies are devoured by a ravenous beast wearing a big, haloed A.

So the offense is in one of the worst-timed slumps possible and it seems for the moment that they won't be scoring a lot of runs in their traditional high-explosive style. In fact, looking back to September 21, when the Red Scare lost that game against Kansas City and the slide that landed the Sox firmly in the 2009 Wild Card slot really started, it doesn't seem like they've hit that well against above average pitching. Maybe this slump is a long time coming; maybe now that they're once again up against the wall they'll start to click again and we'll all be laughing about these first two steps down the road to a champagne-less ending to October.

However, regardless of what happens when the series resumes in Boston mid-day Sunday, I think these first two games have proven that Tito needs a faster hook on his starters. Elite veterans though Lester and Beckett may be, the lack of run support demands perfection from the starting pitcher, which becomes a smaller and smaller possibility as the game goes on. It's true that the bullpen isn't always perfect either, but changing things up before tight situations get really tight - when the starter gives up three or four runs - may be the only way to win right now.

ALDS Game 1: Mood for Trouble

ALDS Game 1: Boston Red Sox 0, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 5

Dedicated to Robin, who knows why.

Last night was all about trouble. Take the sterling effort by the defense, for example. Normally you'd write it off as first-time playoff jitters, except that every man, infield and outfield, behind the plate and on the mound, had been to the post-season before. Yet somehow, these experienced fielders who'd played together for half a season couldn't execute three times, chalking up three errors over the course of the game...

Oh wait. At least one of those "errors" was the fault of this guy. Poor execution doesn't help keep the pitch count low, but neither does blindness by the officiating. Maybe tonight they'll relegate Bucknor to one of the outfield positions where he won't do as much damage. So the defense was trouble, but the umpires were trouble, too.

The offense generally looked like the hacks they were taking, but that's to be expected: Lester might have pitched decently, but Lackey was generally on fire and with the exception of one jam that the Sox managed to waste by looking like Bucknor flailing in the wind, was pretty much unhittable. I distinctly remember one pitch to Ortiz where the bottom fell out of the ball right as he swung and while it broke my heart, it really was a beautiful pitch to see. You'll notice the pattern continues: the offense was trouble. Lester was trouble, because he gave up four walks.

There was trouble from all sides then in Game 1. Tonight they'll come back out and try things again and just maybe they'll look like they belong in the post-season. Because otherwise, we're in trouble.

I Think We All Know What Needs to be Done...

Congratulations Philadelphia...

...given the recent revelations about Beckett's oblique and Lowrie's wrist, plus the more obvious injuries (oh, and the fact that you have a pretty well-made team), you probably would have beaten us, too.

Try not to burn the entire city down in the celebration riots.

Conspiracy Theory of the Day

Here's a fun conspiracy theory for you: you know those Rays fans who started showing up during the playoffs, filling the seats of a stadium that had locked whole sections during the year? What if they aren't Rays fan at all? What if they're Yankee fans (because we know Florida is full of both Yankee and Red Sox adherents), reveling in the chance to stick it to their rivals with some vicarious cheering? Something to chew over as we wait for the game to start.

Sign of the Boston Sports Apocalypse

Ok, I take back every hopeful thing I've said or thought about this series turning around in Boston's favor these past few days: clearly we're in big trouble. I'll spend the rest of the next two days quietly waiting for the hammer to fall...

Mid-Game Metallica

WEEI just played the intro from Metallica's "The Thing That Should Not Be" to open the inning after the Rays lit up Lester like a Roman candle. Truer words were never inferred.

Beating the Rays, Or The Evolution of Moneyball

I won't go into series analysis today; the previews across the web have done a fine job giving effective coverage to all angles. Personally, I recommend Paul SF's excellent dissection over at YFSF and Evan Brunell's exploration of key series factors at Fire Brand of the American League, but suffice it to say that all commentary points to another tight ALCS with a good potential for Red Sox victory. Boston in seven games sounds like a good call to me.

No, what inspired me to put fingers to keyboard this morning is an article on The Process, Theo Epstein's term for the Red Sox player development system. As we all know, Boston's heavy investment in its farm system has paid enormous dividends: Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youkilis, Lowrie, Masterson, Delcarmen, and Papelbon are all homegrown and all key components in Boston's championship-level success in the past two years. What intrigues me about the Globe's description of The Process - as necessarily undetailed, beyond the description of a consistent manual of development used by every level of the organization, as it may be - is that we are witnessing the next level of evolution in the scientific process of player development made famous (and infamous) in Moneyball.

Moneyball was all about the use of statistics to determine player value. Its development by Billy Beane was the result of the need to produce results in the straightened circumstances of Oakland A's baseball, but a perfect storm of circumstance lead to its adoption by other number-minded GMs across the sport. In the process, it won approval among the population of statistically-minded fans, popularized a revolution in how people watch and comment on the game, etc. But as Moneyball and more vocal stats organs like Fire Joe Morgan make clear, using statistics to predict future performance explicitly denies the use of any other predictive system. You know, like intangibles. Make up. Whatever black magic it is that scouts use when they look at players in high school and college.

We all know that Epstein is a Beane disciple from back in the day. But here's where the evolution comes in: when Theo talks about the club's pre-draft evaluation of player make up:

"We sit down and brainstorm about what we're looking for, which attributes we think make a major league player successful, and then we question our own assumptions," Epstein says. "OK, we think we want players who are tough and gritty. Well, what does that really mean? Can you actually see that in a 17-year-old, in a 21-year-old? Does it look different when he's 17 than when he's 25? We think we want players who are intense and baseball-centric, who are focused on the game. Well, what about players who are too intense and too focused? Do they put too much pressure on themselves?"

In essence, applying science (through sports psychology) to the profiles of players whose statistics attract organization attention, adding a layer of filtering to the selection of players that Boston hopes will do well in the big leagues. Taking the idea even further - since I'm sure the Rays, with their own intensive focus on player development, have a process similar to that of Boston - this ALCS might well be a demonstration of the powers of science in player selection. Given the parity between the two clubs and the expectation of a long, fun series, seeing this type of science in play has to be a good thing for fans of the sport.

Beating the Rays: A Prequel

Time to get ready for what will surely be an epic battle for the ALCS, and you know what that means: both sides have to get their trash talk ready. Oh wait, we're good: the Rays fans are already good to go.

That said, I was deeply, deeply disappointed in what I heard from the Fenway faithful during the top of the 9th inning of Monday’s Game Four. With the game tied, it sure sounded like they were chanting “Beat LA.”

Maybe they did that earlier and the night before too, but I’ve been either muting Chip Caray or relegating y’all to the picture-in-picture. But for the life of me, there is no reasonable explanation for why the Sox fans would be chanting that.

I can’t imagine they’re stupid enough to be looking past the Angels and our Devil Rays to a World Series date with the Dodgers.

But that leaves the equally stupid rationale that the LA they were referring to were the Angels.

Seriously Sox fans, were you really comparing the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim to the Lakers?

Let me clear a few things up for ya, David:

1. Nope, that was the first time in the series. Glad to see you're keeping tabs on us, though.
2. You didn't mention the context for the chant: the bullpen was either about to surrender the lead or had just done so and was struggling for the last out (I don't remember exactly and I can't seem to get MLB.tv's feed to work properly. If I've got the context wrong, please feel free to let me know in the comments). Either way, fans in the stands were looking at the possibility of another late night, extra-inning loss and a trip back to LA for a tough game five. Reminding the boys in the field about that possibility (not to mention summing up that responsibility in an easily-repeatable chant) definitely falls under the responsibilities of a fan.
3. Celtics fans may have come up with "Beat LA" during the NBA playoffs, but that doesn't make the chant the province of basketball fans any more than it made "Yankees Suck" the province of baseball fans. Chanting "Beat LA" at a Sox/Angels game might have been contextually appropriate, but saying that a fan base was comparing their overhyped (if angry) foes to a basketball arch-rival completely misses the point: these are the fans that chanted "Beat LA" at a Mariners game in early June, the fans that for six or seven years pulled out a rousing chorus of "Yankees Suck" at sporting events as varied as Patriots games and UMass hockey games. It's a rallying cry. If your team had more than five fans, you might get that.
   

For No One

My mind does ache. And now, a breakdown of the game, in the form of a mental debate:

• The negative: It's after 1 AM, I have to get up for work tomorrow, and I don't even have a victory to make the exhaustion worth the trade.
• The positive: Yeah, losing is no fun, but we're still ahead two games to one with one more in Fenway and we made the Angels eat through their entire bullpen to get that win. If K-Rod or Scot Shields even looks at a baseball before some time next week, their arms will probably fall off.
  
  
• The negative: But we had so many good chances! That first ill-begotten lead, later on when Ellsbury only failed to take second because he's too goddamn fast, later on after that when Ellsbury struck out looking because the ump had some sort of chip on his shoulder or vision impairment that kept him from seeing a ball a foot out of the zone and the winning run would have walked home in the next at-bat...
• The positive: At least we were efficient about it. Four runs on thirteen baserunners is a lot better than the five runs on 21 baserunners the Angels had to offer. We just have to get to tomorrow's starter early and we're golden for another trip to the ALCS.
  
  
• The negative: We were beaten by Howie Kendrick and Erick Aybar, the very definitions of FAIL in these past three games. I'd feel better about losing to Groucho and Harpo than those two.
• The positive: Francona might have been better going to Byrd than sticking with Javier Lopez for a full inning, but the bullpen did a great job: they kept the Angels off the board for seven innings without forcing the Sox to pull in one of the starters they might need for tomorrow.
  
  
• The negative: Beckett looked like reheated ass on the mound tonight. This was not the post-season Josh Beckett to which I am accustomed.
  
• The positive: No, but tonight's frustrations were a team effort. We'll shake 'em off and get 'em tomorrow.
  

Taking Stock: Beating the Angels?

Last year, I weighed the odds, considered the statistics, and made what turned out to be a conservative prediction: Red Sox over the Angels in four games. This year, it is Boston's lot to play the Angels in the first round once again, with an eye towards continuing a streak of nine straight playoff victories and advancing to the next round (although, as Hart Brachen so rightly put it, all of these games are pure gravy to those fans smart enough to enjoy the good times while they last), and my lot (enjoyable, to be sure) to make another prediction.

Because he is a clever person, Soxlosophy's Jonah Goldwater rounded up the major statistics involved in this upcoming series in a post yesterday, but here's some additional factors to consider:

• The Power of Teh SuXX0r: In 13 post-season games (going back to that infamous ALCS in 1986), the Sox have a collective ERA of 2.82 and collective splits of .281/.366/.451, while the Angels have a collective ERA of 5.59 and collective splits of .232/.299/.341. In other words, the Angels have been pretty terrible in the post-season (particularly last year, when the broken and beaten remains of the offense cowered under a rock before the might of everyone not named Matsuzaka or Gagne), generally falling far short of their regular season production. This trend is great news for the Sox, who beat the Angels once in nine regular season games in 2008...and that one win was back in April, in Boston.
• The Dice-K Factor: Speaking of Matsuzaka, we'd better hope that Friday's starter doesn't repeat past results when he faces the Angels in Game 2: in 9.2 innings (including the start in Game 2 of the ALDS last year), he's given up nine runs and hasn't gone any deeper than five innings.
• Seeking the Better Lester: I have a two-part excuse for why Jon Lester has been the opposite of filthy awesome against the Angels in his career: first, 14.2 of his 19.2 total innings were from before 2008, when he was the inconsistent Houdini who danced on the edge of disaster start after start. Second, his only start against LAA came in late April, when he was still in this blog's doghouse for having a (in retrospect) Matsuzaka-level lack of efficiency. Since then, of course, he's become the savior of this rotation and his more recent performance gives me hope that tonight will not be a blowout.
• Injuries: Drew, Lowell, and Beckett all sound like they're healthier now than they were at the end of September. Having Drew and Lowell back could raise the lineup out of their September doldrums (yes, that's right: the team's splits dropped 30 points in all three categories in one month) and give Boston a fighting chance to beat some potentially devastating pitching, while Beckett remains the standard bearer for playoff excellence who could be in a position to keep the post-season alive come early next week.
• Lackey and Santana: The outcome of the first two games probably depends more on which versions of Lackey and Santana show up to the first two games. Lackey's already broken from his poor past against the Sox with two strong wins in 2008, but if he reverts to form, Boston has a chance to take a crucial first game. Santana is having an excellent year, but he's never been particularly effective against Boston. Games 1 and 2 could very well be high scoring affairs that eat through bullpens and make Game 3 that much more important.
  

Prediction: There are too many what-if factors for me to feel comfortable calling this one for Boston. We'll see what happens tonight, but right now I'm calling it for the Angels in four.

And that’s the Ballgame

So I return to blogging (as the season ends) with the wondrous report that the Yankees limp back home, losers of the last game of the season thanks to the bases loaded extra inning single by rising star (nah) Jonathan Van Every. The walkoff was an exciting end for an arduous regular season… but I fear that is the ONLY good news this evening.

Latest reports from the Boston Herald (so grain of salt warnings are in place) state that Josh “I own the Postseason” Beckett will be unavailable in the ALDS due to an oblique strain. Like beating the Angels wasn’t already going to be hard enough, now the Sox don’t even have the big gun himself to roll out Wednesday night.

So the 2008 Postseason will start without Lowell (potentially for the whole thing), J.D Drew (maybe for pinch hitting), Lugo (thankfully for the whole thing) and now possibly Beckett. This situation sucks so hard I swear it was accidentally created by CERN’s Large Hadron Collider.

But HEY…the bright side is the right side. The playoffs are finally here (unless you are in the AL Central) and we might even see the musical posts make a comeback. Everyone likes music… unless it’s the Sound of Silence coming from the Red Sox World Series chances…

Crap in a hat…

UPDATE: Francona spoke about Beckett tonight and it looks like he will pitch game 3 against the Angels if he is well enough... hold on to your butts.

Send In The Clowns

So the last meaningful out of the Red Sox 2008 season is a pop-up in the fog, two men on board, down by 11 runs. It was a very odd way into regular-season irrelevancy: an atmosphere so soupy, outfielders are missing routing flies; so water-drenched, the very elements are conspiring to keep the ridiculous offensive totals out of the books.

I was going to say I wasn't too bothered by tonight's loss backdooring the Rays into an AL East victory they're probably too tired to celebrate, because I see the Twins lurking at the top of the AL Central, ready to snatch final victory from the failing Pale Sox, and my memory immediately jumps to the Lovecraftian horror that is the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome. I hate it when the Sox have to travel to Minnesota for games (like Seattle, they always seem to lose there, and lose badly), and if losing the AL East means not having to spend some virtual time in the Twin Cities baseball stadium of choice, it's a trade I'm happy to make. Let the Rays have the title and face the Twinkies.

However, I see I'm wrong on two counts: not only have the Sox done well in Minnesota this year on both sides of the ball, but so have the Rays. Just as importantly, both teams have played well against the alternate victors in Chicago, so unless the Rays go ice cold over the next week or so, don't expect either potential winner of the AL Central crown to make their way past the first round of the playoffs. If we're lucky, we'll face the Rays in the ALCS (actually, if we're really lucky, we'll face the White Sox or the Twins in the ALCS). If not, well...well, we'll cross that bridge when we come to it. For now, enjoy two days of meaningless baseball and contemplate how you think those first two games in LA will go. Finally: Congratulations to the Tampa Bay Rays on a stupendous achievement, made even more significant by its accomplishment in baseball's toughest division. You guys are the new terror of the East.

It's Down To This...And It's Down To You

Jon Lester brings the money, money, money ball last night and has us thinking two no-nos in a year through six, while a cast of thousands (in the form of one of the lighter-hitting-on-paper Red Sox lineups we've seen this year) beats the odds and backs him up with more than enough runs for the win. Meanwhile, the Rays can't seal the deal, and fall to within two (well, technically three) of losing the lead again. We've gotta win 'em all and they've gotta lose 'em all. Oh, and we'll be facing the Yankees, who - despite their unaccustomed position in the standings - will no doubt be spoiling for a victory or two to keep Boston permanently out of the top spot. Wild Card is nice, but no one would mind a home series against Chicago, either. Time to go for all of the marbles!

Playoff Bound

Four trips in five years and it's still just as sweet as it ever was to see the Sox make the post-season AL eight. It's officially time to start bringing the rock and take home another championship crown. Go Sox!!!