Would You Want to be Called an Injury in Waiting?

The first part of Nick Cafardo's notes column from yesterday discusses the odd circumstances of Jason Bay's departure, tying his decision to leave to Boston's insistence on a contract with protection clauses against injury. Cafardo points out that Lackey and Drew both agreed to take pay cuts or lose options if they become injured, suspects that Boston will require the same stipulations of Beckett and Papelbon, and noted that Dr. Thomas Gill, the team physician who questioned the strength of Bay's shoulder, made the prescient call on the future of Pedro. As you might expect, all of these points lead up to coup de grace indictment of Bay's decision:

What’s puzzling is that if he felt so confident about his physical condition, and understood how good Fenway and Boston were to him, why wouldn’t he go along with the medical provisions, just as some prominent teammates had? If the Sox - according to Bay’s version - were willing to go three guaranteed years and a fourth year with medical protection at $15 million per year, what was so offensive about that?

I expect the answer is little simpler than Cafardo expects: even though four years at Fenway would likely make Bay's numbers far more attractive than four years at Citi Field, choosing to accept a medical provision brands Bay as a player with suspect boy body parts, even if he makes it all four years without injury. At the end of his contract, Bay would be in his mid-30s, already looking at less money as his career declines, and wouldn't want to carry the value-lowering label of potential injury in the bargain. He may be screwed either way: by declining a medical provision while insisting he's healthy, he gives power to the argument that he's an injury waiting to happen, but I can understand why he might have chosen the contract with the Mets as the lesser of two evils.

Theo Epstein Cares Not For Your Arbitration

I was going to look over the news of the Papelbon signing without comment, until it occurred to me that the Sox just rewarded a decline in performance with the largest contract ever given to a fourth-year closer. The Globe puts the numbers pretty well:

His ERA was down from 2008 (2.34), but perhaps the more notable change was his WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched), which increased to a career-high 1.15. His WHIP was 0.95 in 2008 and 0.77 in 2007. His strikeout-to-walk ratio also sank to a career low (for any of his full seasons in the majors) of 3.17-1. He put up a mark of 9.63-1 in 2008 and 5.60-1 in 2007. He set a career high in walks with 24.

The new deal comes after the expiration of a deal that made him the highest paid first-year arbitration-eligible closer, and two years after the deal that broke the record for highest salary to a non-arbitration-eligible closer...and four months after the blown save that ended the season in a sweep. I'm not saying that Papelbon is washed up or shouldn't be paid as an elite closer, but even if the Sox are keeping the money on a short leash because they think they'll replace Papelbon with Bard in a year or two, why pay an arbitration-eligible player that much more just to keep things from moving to the arbiter? My theory: it's Theo's arbitration-free streak that make Boston willing to pay more, even if the numbers suggest they're taking a risk. After all, it seems logical that keeping younger players from having to go to a third party to make the money they think is fair would give the Sox a reputation as a place where young players would want to sign, making signing draft picks and motivating minor league talent a little easier.

Big Surprise: Dice-K Hid an Injury Last Year

And he hurt himself while training for the World Baseball Classic, so despite what Ichiro might say, we've got another injury to lay at the feet of the WBC. And he hid it from the Red Sox all year, but that's no surprise: players have to walk the line between developing a reputation as a wimp who hurts his team by resting every injury and playing so hurt they're under-performing, and they're going to make a decision here and there that looks terrible in retrospect. What's troubling about the story is that once again it was a Japanese media outlet that broke the story. Maybe Dice-K feels more comfortable talking to journalists when he doesn't need a translator - that seems to be the implication, anyway, because he keeps breaking these stories to journalists in Japan - but if he's going to make an announcement like this one, why not have a press conference and spread the word at large? It feels like he's either thinking word won't get back to the English language press, which is clearly ridiculous, because it keeps happening, or this particular admission - and every one he's made thus far - was something he admittedly only after some probing questioning, which suggests he didn't intend to tell the public in the first place.

Ladies and Gentlemen, Your Boston Braves!

Because they're so focused on pitching and defense this year, you see. With the Lackey signing, Hermida getting his chance after all, and the acquisition of Beltre and his enormous bat of unimpressiveness, we're excited about the pitching staff, downplaying the holes in the lineup, and talking defense. Like geeky defense, the kind where the papers start talking about how many runs a third baseman like Beltre will save over Lowell:

The move is in line with the Sox’ stated desire to improve their run prevention. Beltre is an above average fielder, earning a 14.3 ultimate zone rating according to fangraphs.com. Contrast that with Lowell’s minus 10.4 UZR (or just ask a scout), and it’s clear the Sox have dramatically upgraded their defense at the position for 2010 and possibly beyond.

All well and good: if you can reduce the performance of players to an equation and determine that Beltre's stronger glove and weaker bat will generate more runs than Lowell's weaker glove and stronger bat, and balance in the cost of choosing Beltre over Youkilis when the only alternate is Casey Kotchman, the decision makes some sort of sense. Everything comes down to runs eventually, so if your defense-heavy team saves more runs than it gives up by being light in the offense department, you win ball games and don't look like an idiot for not trying to compete with the Yankees.

Except there's one problem: the Yankees were already pretty good in one category (pitching) and even better in another (offense) last year and they won the World Series. This year they might actually be a bit better - I'm thinking about the Granderson acquisition here in particular - and Boston's response is to jettison offense and hope the results come out in the wash. It might work, but I think as interesting as this Boston team seems for the new decade, we've got another summer of second place running to look forward to.

I'm John Lackey!

Happy New Year. This Fitzy episode is from months ago, but it occurs to me that it's even funnier after the Lackey signing:

Who Would You Rather Have: Bay or Hermida?

Because it's starting to look like we're going to have both. Bay's request for more time and loot than Boston's 4 year, $60 million offer has met with no takers except the Mets (4 years, $65 million), and Bay either doesn't like his potential numbers in Citi Field or he'd rather not sign with a team that's made spectacular season blowups a regular habit, because his agent is trying to resurrect interest from the Sox front office. Meanwhile, Nick Cafardo has some thoughts on how Jeremy Hermida will never develop the big bat he's reputed to sport - Cafardo makes some Ortiz comparisons - if he's playing fourth or fifth outfield with Cameron/Bay/Ellsbury/Drew/whomever. With the team in the process of assembling a group that seems better suited to win today than tomorrow relying on Hermida's offensive development doesn't seem like a good strategy, but the more I think about it, the more I think what Cafardo is saying makes sense: if this guy really is a slugger in the making, let's see what he's got and take advantage while he's in Boston.

Wacky for Lackey

So...despite my vitriolic assertions to the contrary, I guess The Boof wasn't Boston's only off-season move for the pitching staff, what with the John Lackey signing and all. In fact, I might even be willing to say that I completely acknowledge the error of my ways and resolve - once again - to never criticize the methods behind the madness that is the front office, because - despite all of the odd experiments - the Sox keep making these deals that make so much sense. With Lackey, they now have:

• A superior starting pitching staff that's on the verge of becoming 2007-like godly if Matsuzaka carries his form from the last four starts of 2009 into 2010. We thought the '09 staff had an excellent chance of dominating the field in Spring Training, but the success of even that illustrious group required a blessing of the stars; besides the Dice-K question, all the 2010 Sox need ask of their starters is for health and consistency with their already established numbers.
• A trade piece in odd man out Clay Buchholz, who'll have the chance to become the "maybe he'll make it" ornament of some other team's staff. Buchholz becomes trade bait for the bat the Sox will need to replace Bay, now that they've elected to...
  
• ...sign Mike Cameron and choose defense over offense in left field. The deal has everyone saying farewell to the likable-but-expensive Jason Bay and those Gay for Bay t-shirts Robin planned to market, but frees up money for one of those expensive contracts the Sox will likely acquire with Bay's offensive replacement.

Of course, we can't celebrate a successful hot stove season just yet: someone has to agree to make the trade that makes the Cameron acquisition worthwhile at a price that doesn't make us cry for a mortgaged future or (even worse) a missed opportunity. Anyone got a player with .896 (or better) OPS they can spare?

They Get Granderson, We Get...The Boof

Dan Shaughnessy has a column in the Globe this morning about how the Sox are selling us a bill of goods by talking about a "bridge period" in the team's development instead of pushing to sign the players that'll make the team competitive against the Yankees next year. I had intended to write the whole thing off as the usual crank trash that Shaughnessy likes to write, but then two things happened: first, I read Joe Posnanski's post on how much of a steal the Granderson deal was for the Yankees and the full impact of that trade finally hit me after several days of denial. Then, I went to Boston.com to look for the Shaughnessy column again so I could blog about it and the Lowell trade speculation and saw this on the home page (I've added a red underline to underscore the point):

I almost choked on my breakfast when I saw that. The Boof?!? A 28-year-old pitcher with an injury history as long as his surgically repaired arm, 96 appearances in four seasons, and a career 5.12 ERA? I get the timing is coincidental, but damn: the Yankees boost their already formidable lineup with a righty whose swing seems tailor-made for the Stadium and the Sox get a pitcher with a ridiculous nickname on his last shot for major league success. To say things seem inequitable with a poor chance of improvement is an understatement.

When Playing Hurt is Rational and Irrational All at Once

I would like to call Manny Delcarmen an idiot. I really would: because he pitched secretly hurt for half the season, he looked like he had completely lost his edge, and made us question whether or not he belonged on the team. After all, a healthy Manny Delcarmen may not make the difference between a first-round exit and a World Series victory, but he's still a piece of that all-so-important functioning bullpen and therefore responsible for an additional win or two.

So I would love to blame him, but I can't: if an athlete in 2009 feels like they have to hide their injury, it's a symptom of a larger social problem, where players are so worried about looking they have the competitive spirit that they sacrifice health for the game and make themselves less effective in the process. It's an irrational stance to take, which is why it bothers me: in a perfect world (in my head, anyway), players would not play when they were hurt and people would not judge them for lacking the competitive spirit. Alas, this perfect world does not exist, so we have the next flawed thing: a player has to make the decision about whether or not it's more important to be judged by their competitive ability or their health and some - like Delcarmen - choose competitive ability over health as a rational decision and end up losing both.

The Amazing, Flexible Pedroia

Now it all makes sense: letting the market empty of potential shortstops was part of the front office's plan all along! While we were all zigging and trying to talk ourselves into settling for a Marco Scutaro/Jed Lowrie combo package, the Sox were zagging and talking to Pedroia about switching from second to short in 2010.

Well, that's the rumor, anyway. It's not a confirmed thing and - given the quotes Pedroia gave to the Herald when quizzed about the possible move - something that may be more in his head than anywhere else. In fact, for all of the move's logic - because after all, it's a lot easier to find a decent second baseman than it is to find a decent shortstop - it's giving me some deja vu. After all, it was a little over three years ago when Alex Gonzalez last left Boston and we were asking the same questions then that we are now, even if the circumstances are a little different.

Playing Marco Polo in the Dwindling Shortstop Pool

Well, I'm glad the Sox settled the shortstop question quickly and easily, providing some sort of continuity at a position that's had steady of stream of different warm bodies for far too long. Wait, just kidding.

Now that Gonzalez is definitely out of the picture for 2010, removing another possibility from a market both weak in options and rapidly tightening as the month has progressed, we've got a run at Marco Scutaro to look forward to. As Fire Brand of the American League points out in a slightly convoluted metaphor, Scutaro might have finally hit whatever summit he's going to have in his baseball career - his splits for 2009 were .282/.379/.409, far above his career totals of .265/.337/.384 - but that'll make him far too popular for those teams in need. In other words, expect Boston to overpay, quite possibly with a contract that'll keep Scutaro around for a year or two too long, because they don't have the leverage.

I'd be really happy if this deal works out to Boston's advantage, but I suspect we're in for something closer to the Renteria deal, with a bit higher of an upside: Scutaro hits well enough for a year, but tails off in 2011 (when he turns 35) and turns into dead-weight trade bait that the Sox dump for minor leaguers who never make a big contribution. Jed Lowrie, meanwhile, remains haunted by the after-effects of his broken wrist and never blossoms into the player we've stopped expecting him to become.

A Little Hot Stove Housekeeping

The Sox did some housekeeping today: they declined Gonzalez's ($6 million) and Varitek ($5 million)'s options, picked up Martinez's $7.7 million option, and changed Wakefield's perpetual club option into a two-year, $4 million deal. The business with catchers isn't surprising, but I'm a little baffled by the Gonzo choice. Presumably Boston is hedging its bets, slipping in the possibility of picking up a draft pick if Gonzalez declines to prolong his tenure and ends up somewhere else, but are things really that sure at shortstop next year that they can afford to make this bet? It's not like the shortstop free agent market is aces this off season and Jed Lowrie...well, we all know he's nothing like a sure thing, either. I guess we'll see what the Sox have planned.

As for Wakefield: does the new deal mean that Wake has a retirement date in mind? The perpetual option was fun because, quite frankly, it allowed us (or me, anyway) to live out a fantasy where Wakefield entered some sort of relativistic universe where age meant nothing and he could keep pitching forever, but clearly the injuries of this past season dealt that particular hope a crushing blow. If Wake's feeling his age enough to sign a time-limited deal - or the Sox are worried enough about his health to send him down that road - the true end can't be that far behind.

ALDS Game 3: Seconds

ALDS Game 3: Boston Red Sox 6, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 7

It takes seconds to say good bye to the end of a season...about the time it takes for the ball to leave Pedroia's bat and fall into Aybar's glove, or Chone Figgins to walk to first base at the start of a rally that wouldn't end until it was just too late. Afterward, we can debate the hows and whys until we're blue in the face: maybe the Angels were too good, or the Red Sox were not hungry enough, or the magic that we've come to rely on to spark those magnificent come-from-behind victories is sparking another team's fire this year; but it doesn't really matter: we started with promise in the Spring, and ended with cold defeat in the waning of the year.

However, despite the dismal result, I'm grateful for two things:

1. The offense finally woke up. Even a blowout isn't as frustrating as watching opportunities to score slip away like the hours of a Sunday afternoon and for two games, slippage was all we had to look forward to. As painful as the ending was to watch, it would have been worse to end the day with no hope at all.
   
   
2. That we made it this far. I'm not going to turn into a fan for whom nothing but World Series victory is acceptable. Especially after the absolutely depressing end of the 2006 season when the wheels fell off the train long before the end of September, I'd rather face a sweep in the first round of the playoffs than nothing at all.
   

ALDS Game 2: Living Bad Dreams

ALDS Game 2: Boston Red Sox 1, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 4

When I woke up yesterday morning, I had really hoped the complete and total lack of hitting was just a one-time failure; a product of really good pitching and a really bad night. This morning, I'm starting to wonder if we're in some sort of terrible dream, where those at-bats that do turn into base runners are few and far between; where rallies are devoured by a ravenous beast wearing a big, haloed A.

So the offense is in one of the worst-timed slumps possible and it seems for the moment that they won't be scoring a lot of runs in their traditional high-explosive style. In fact, looking back to September 21, when the Red Scare lost that game against Kansas City and the slide that landed the Sox firmly in the 2009 Wild Card slot really started, it doesn't seem like they've hit that well against above average pitching. Maybe this slump is a long time coming; maybe now that they're once again up against the wall they'll start to click again and we'll all be laughing about these first two steps down the road to a champagne-less ending to October.

However, regardless of what happens when the series resumes in Boston mid-day Sunday, I think these first two games have proven that Tito needs a faster hook on his starters. Elite veterans though Lester and Beckett may be, the lack of run support demands perfection from the starting pitcher, which becomes a smaller and smaller possibility as the game goes on. It's true that the bullpen isn't always perfect either, but changing things up before tight situations get really tight - when the starter gives up three or four runs - may be the only way to win right now.

ALDS Game 1: Mood for Trouble

ALDS Game 1: Boston Red Sox 0, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 5

Dedicated to Robin, who knows why.

Last night was all about trouble. Take the sterling effort by the defense, for example. Normally you'd write it off as first-time playoff jitters, except that every man, infield and outfield, behind the plate and on the mound, had been to the post-season before. Yet somehow, these experienced fielders who'd played together for half a season couldn't execute three times, chalking up three errors over the course of the game...

Oh wait. At least one of those "errors" was the fault of this guy. Poor execution doesn't help keep the pitch count low, but neither does blindness by the officiating. Maybe tonight they'll relegate Bucknor to one of the outfield positions where he won't do as much damage. So the defense was trouble, but the umpires were trouble, too.

The offense generally looked like the hacks they were taking, but that's to be expected: Lester might have pitched decently, but Lackey was generally on fire and with the exception of one jam that the Sox managed to waste by looking like Bucknor flailing in the wind, was pretty much unhittable. I distinctly remember one pitch to Ortiz where the bottom fell out of the ball right as he swung and while it broke my heart, it really was a beautiful pitch to see. You'll notice the pattern continues: the offense was trouble. Lester was trouble, because he gave up four walks.

There was trouble from all sides then in Game 1. Tonight they'll come back out and try things again and just maybe they'll look like they belong in the post-season. Because otherwise, we're in trouble.

I Think We All Know What Needs to be Done...

Kevin Youkilis, A Man Afire

Jackie MacMullen's profile on Youkilis - or maybe more on Youkilis's intensity - is a great read, but is anyone surprised at all that:

• Boston fans love Youkilis for being the guy who made good by working hard and beating the odds. I'd say that's probably going to be the case no matter where Youkilis played, because it's a part of the American national myth: we love self-reliance and work ethic and we love the underdog. Put them together and you get some sort of living legend with an awesome beard.
  
  
• Pedroia doesn't think Youkilis should change a thing. If you took Kevin Youkilis, shrunk him down a few inches, and gave him a complex from people either underestimating him for his height or seeing him like the second coming of David Eckstein, you'd have Dustin Pedroia. On a side note: how lucky are we to have a left side of the infield that's so committed they don't understand why people think they're a little crazy and really good at their jobs?
  
  
• Some of the other players find Youkilis a bit much. I can understand that: his intensity is a lot of fun to watch and makes me love him as a player, but I'm trying to imagine a co-worker who blew up at himself in public every time he missed a minor deadline and I can imagine it would make things pretty uncomfortable.
  

Nervous About the Playoffs

I suspect many of you are asking yourselves right now: 'Has there ever been a 95-win team that seemed more of a long shot coming into the playoffs?' Maybe it's some combination of finishing second to a 103 game-winning Yankee team, the severely lackadaisical turn the team seemed to take after losing those first two games to the Royals, and how many of Boston's positions seemed to be filled by a combination of tape, glue, and odd luck, but going into this ALDS - whenever it starts - I'm more nervous about Boston's chances against Anaheim than I've been in the past - and that's not just because the Angels have so much to prove. I mean, if you'd told me in April that Boston's solid group of options in the field and on the mound would be rife with injuries and missing major pieces by mid-season, or that Francona would be juggling a combination of Lowell, Youkilis, Varitek, and Martinez across three positions by August to keep Lowell and Varitek in playing shape for October, I would have been quite surprised.

Actually, I suppose I wouldn't have been surprised about either Lowell or Varitek: they're a combined age of 10,000 years old and have one good hip between the two of them. But the rest was a surprise.

Adding to my feelings of uncertainty is a little fun with small sample sizes: for whatever reason, it's taken 95 or more wins to get to the playoffs this decade. Boston has six 95+ win teams since the 2000 season. Two of those teams won it all; three teams met the agony of defeat, including two edge-of-the-seat ALCS losses; and one team is still in the process of writing its own history. Here's where it gets a little odd: the teams that won it all had more than 95 wins. The teams that did not had 95 wins.

See how I've already psyched myself out? I'm drawing patterns from meaningless data. I may not feel better until the Sox have exacted another sweep from the Angels.

Does a Tougher Schedule Mean No October Baseball?

Regardless of how this game turns out, it's seems fairly safe to say that as sure as at least one person behind home plate will be waving like an idiot at the camera while talking on their cell phone, the Yankees will end up winning the AL East. I've come to terms with this idea, while blessing the idea of the Wild Card and its power to salvage the season. We still have a shot at the final glory, you see, so it's easier to wave goodbye, however wistfully, to one of the prizes to be obtained along the way.

While contemplating this state of affairs, I wondered if anyone had ever done a statistical study about the effect of the difficulty of the schedule on the likelihood of making the post-season. For example, if the Red Sox have a schedule where tough items like a road trip against New York followed by a swing out West are the norm, are they less likely to win the AL East crown or the Wild Card? Or, because each team plays every other team in their league a certain number of times, are the tough moments games by the easier ones?

Were I to do such a study, I'd probably use each team's Pythagorean for the year: after all, the idea is to determine how "tough" each team is to face, and a measurement of their predicted winning percentage as determined by runs allowed and scored seems like a good measurement. After that, I'd take all of the available data and start looking for patterns to see whether or not I could determine what the minimum winning percentage would be to define a "tough" team. From there, I could make some judgments about the layout of a tougher schedule and see where each team finished.

Ode to the Worst Week in Red Sox Baseball in a Long Time

So many Red Sox thoughts right now, I'm overwhelmed with strange feelings.

It started with Lester's 8 innings in Tampa last week when it looked like it was a lock for a win. And then the pen collapsed. I knew then that there was something strange and eerie going on--like it was 2008 all over again and the Rays have magical powers at the Trop.

Some thoughts go to the past... Was Manny a Zenmaster in disguise, relaxing the middle of the lineup with his que-sera-sera, stoner outlook?

I despise Manny now for what he did to get traded, but I understand his value in the middle of that lineup. For all his bad traits, the guy rarely pressed. He was the equivalent of having, gulp, Mark Teixiera (say what you want about him being on the Yankees--the guy is a freaking stud).

Manny relaxed Ortiz. This is not news, it's just a fact. As Eric said to me today, "Manny is a lingering presence. Like overripe fish."

Is the silver lining that our starting pitching is very good? Is Tito for real doing these Bigelow Green Tea ads online?

Whatever the case, I haven't seen the Red Sox offense press so much in a very long time.

Youkilis who had been hitting really well on the road, suddenly lost it again over the weekend. The Jason Bay hamstring pull couldn't have come at a worse time. I love getting V-Mart, but getting him in a slump of sorts is unfortunate.

Lester and Beckett are studs. Buchholz has some things to work out, namely, throwing that fastball for strikes (and maybe going back to the mysteriously missing curveball).

First place is pretty much a goner at this point in the season, unless the Yankees pull an about face or there is some major injury to Burnett or Carston Charles. The wild card is the spot to get, and with having to go on the road in Texas and Toronto, the Sox have a lot more work to do.

The point is that it's time to relax a little, and get back to basics. Shrug off the week, and get back to taking bad pitches, hitting strikes and being patient.

ps. The Red Sox schedule is so whacked this week.. Why the hell do they go home for 4 games, then are back on the road for 6 to Texas (again) and Toronto? And looking ahead, from August 18 to 30 the Red Sox do not have one day off.

What Happened to Buchholz's Curve Ball?

Where the hell is that nasty 12 to 6 curve ball Clay Buchholz threw in 2007?

It was a knee-buckling, deer in the headlights pitch that seems to have disappeared from his repetoire.

I don't get it at all.

I've watched him try to throw it only two times in this game to the Yankees. Once, he came extremely close to hitting A-Rod in the back of the shoulder. The second time, it was very high and out of the zone.

Is he being told to throw a slider--a form of a breaking pitch with a tighter rotation--by Red Sox pitching coaches? Are they concerned about his elbow and shoulder for the long haul of his career?

There is no doubt that his change up is a great out pitch, and he can throw it on demand in any count. He is showing that as much in this game against Carston Charles in the Bronx (C.C. has a one hitter through 6 innings right now).

I seem to recall Buchholz's no hitter back in 2007 had the curve ball prominently featured (and in other games since then), but not in 2009. I also seem to recall a fastball that was closer to 97. I guess a lot can happen in two seasons.

I know he has good stuff, and he needs more major league experience, but it seems to me that some his confidence in the curve ball (and many pitches) is lost--and confidence is something this pitching staff needs desperately.

With that said, Buchholz has been able to use the changeup and the splitter well today against the Yankees. Having only given up 1 run over 5 innings, Buchholz has mixed up his pitches smartly.

I guess I am saying that when you see something like a 12-6 curveball that can jar hitters with such force, you have to keep it and throw it.

Luckily, Buch will be staying with the major league club for the remainder of the season and his experience will grow and benefit from being around the always-confident Josh Beckett and Jonathan Papelbon.

Speaking of Beckett, what a great outing he had in Friday night's 15-inning, 2-0 loss to the Yankees. I want to see this guy in another playoff game as soon as possible, but given how lifeless the Sox bats are right now (and the injuries to Bay, Dice-K, Wakefield and Lowrie, again), it's difficult to know right now if this team has what it takes to get there.

The Boston Red Sox Day Off

In honor of the late, great John Hughes: "Billy Traber, you're my hero." As much as yesterday was bad piled on terrible piled on really effing craptastic, at least we don't have to go into tonight with a devastated bullpen.

Of course, that may not matter so much, because winning the game of baseball requires scoring runs, and right now, that does not seem to be Boston's specialty. They can get men on base - Chamberlain gave up seven walks, for crying out loud, and didn't have a 1-2-3 inning all night - but scoring them seems to be another matter. To put it another way, the telling numbers for the Boston offense last night were not the eight hits, twelve walks (twelve!), or six runs, but the fifteen men left on base and the .143 (3 for 21) batting average with runners in scoring position. In the end, I had to turn the game off before it was over, because as it turns out, the only thing more frustrating than watching your team get shut down by superior pitching is to watch them squander scoring opportunities like a compulsive gambler burning through his kid's college fund.

As for Smoltz, I'm sympathetic to the pleas for his removal from the rotation, but who, exactly, is going to pitch in his place? The only non-used starter on the 40 man roster who seems remotely qualified is Michael Bowden, who's pitching well in Pawtucket, but isn't exactly tearing things up in a way that suggests he'd be an instant hit in the majors. Paul Byrd seems a more likely successor, but 38-year-old pitchers who haven't thrown all year can't just dive right into professional competition. By trading away Masterson and relying on Smoltz to pull through, the Sox have made their bed - let's just hope that if that bed is as full of broken glass as it seems, it doesn't cut us too much.

Pitching: It's a Problem, But it Could be Worse

Crap in a hat. A few years ago, I have run screaming for the hills - or the ridge in Prospect Park; I'm in Brooklyn, after all - at the idea of facing the Yankees in the Bronx down a key member of the line up. Now I'm just slightly nervous. Shocking the Yanks at home seems like a possibility - particularly after the embarrassments the Bombers have suffered at the hands of the Sox this year - and I'm sticking to my optimism unless something bad happens this evening. In the meantime, let's talk pitching.

There's a sense of panic in the press about the state of the back 3/5ths rotation, with quotes like "a 2-5 record and 7.74 ERA in its past three trips through the rotation" being bandied about like they're signs of the Apocalypse. If there's another Boston Massacre this weekend those fears could - could - be justified, but right now they're just short sighted, for a few reasons:

1. The problem isn't Penny (or even Buchholz, who's had one terrible start, one shortened start, and two quality starts) so much as it is Smoltz. Penny's started 21 games this season; he's given up five runs or more four times, and he's had two starts where he's pitched less than five innings. Remembering that he's both an experiment on the cheap and a fourth or fifth starter, I can't see any reason to complain about what he's brought to the table this year. Last night was just a poorly-timed deviation from the pattern. Smoltz, on the other hand, has only given up less than five runs on two out of his seven starts, and those were against the AAAA teams in KC and Baltimore. Unlike Penny, he's also had almost no run support, so his bad days look that much worse.
   
   
2. Experiments or no, imagine how bad things would be if the Sox hadn't signed Penny and Smoltz now that injuries have put us in our time of need: we'd been looking at 2006 all over again, with the corresponding overexposure of young talent unprepared for the big stage. I'd much rather have veterans like Penny and Smoltz out on the mound than watch the Sox bring up Bowden a year or two too early or try to convert Bard into a starter mid-year. These guys were hired to be insurance and they're providing it, much like Paul Byrd will be if his climb up from the minors proves successful.
   
   
3. Wakefield and Matsuzaka might not be on the world's fastest healing schedules, but it's likely they'll be back before the season is over. It sucks that they're both out at such a critical time in the season, but I think - and yes, I'm about to concede the title to the East - that the Sox have the ability to hang on long enough to take the Wild Card. Time to step things up, boys. Let's start with taking down Cletus the Hutt tonight.
   

No, The Players Union Can't Just Release The List

It's a bad thing - for my confidence in the team, not my standing as a fan - when I walk away from a tied game going into extra innings because I know they're going to lose, right? Maybe that "2 and 12 at the Trop over the past two seasons" thing that was lurking in the back on mind. In any case, I'm glad I didn't lose any sleep to see the result. Besides, something else has been on my mind recently:

A few days ago, Bob Ryan wrote a column demanding that the Players Association end the Steroid Era by releasing The List in its entirety. His motives - and the point of this post is not to question Ryan's motives, so I'll accept them at face value - were pure: that disembodied concept known as The Game will never recover from the scandal of PEDs if the names of those unfortunate enough to test positive keep leaking out in a slow drip for years to come, much as they've done since The List's compilation in 2003. To wit:

The union should be taking the lead, the idea being that the cleaner the public believes the game to be, the better life will be in every way for its members. The Players Association should be lending its support to any effort that would catch the cheaters. It is completely in its best interests.

All parties involved should be united in the desire to protect a precious asset - the game of baseball. Baseball has survived assorted crises in more than a century and a half and should be able to survive this one, too. But like many other good things in our society, its day-to-day greatness is sometimes overwhelmed by an aberrant negative occurrence.

Yesterday, Hank Aaron echoed Ryan's call for a release of names and his sentiments about the release being necessary in an interview with the AP and I started to wonder if anyone voicing these sentiments had really contemplated the logistics of such an action. After all, there are some pretty thorny issues at stake.

First, there's the comparatively minor legal problem. The List is, after all, under a court seal (however ineffective it may be) to stop the government from using it in its investigation. The Players Union could request the removal of the seal, but even the slightest hint of such a request would be the death knell for any union executive's career and quite possibly for the union itself, as angry players question whether the group that's supposed to represent them is acting in their best interest. Just as importantly, imagine the precedent that such a decision would set: not only would the union lose any ability to make requests of its constituents, but by releasing the names to the public, it would be destroying the players' expectation of privacy. Cleaning up the game is important - although Jonah Goldwater gives an excellent demonstration of how our feelings about steroids has its roots in a poorly-defined unease - but preserving the sanctity of The Game isn't such a noble concept when you talk about violating the right to privacy. List or no List, we'll can never know the full impact of PEDs on our beloved game. With any luck, the Supreme Court will rule in favor of the Players Union, and we can finally - finally - end this fruitless quest for knowledge we don't really need and move on.

A Closer Look at Kotchman, LaRoche and V-Mart

On the surface, the Kotchman for LaRoche deal is pretty puzzling.
But upon a little investigation, it appears that there are a few key factors at play.

One appears to be that defense is a larger piece of the puzzle. The second reason is that LaRoche and Chris Duncan (who the Sox got in the Lugo deal from St. Louis) in my estimation--were down-the-stretch, left-handed offensive insurance in case the Red Sox did not land Adrian Gonzalez or V-Mart. The third reason is contract related.

The defensive numbers are explained really well in the Around the Majors blog:

According to Total Fielding Runs, LaRoche cost his teams 2.6 runs more than an average fielder per 1,250 innings over his career. Kotchman saved his team 6 runs per 1,250 innings.

According to Ultimate Zone Rating, Kotchman has been 5.8 runs better than an average first baseman in 2009 (best in baseball). LaRoche is 3.4 runs worse than the average first baseman.

Ok, cool. For the rest of 2009, he's a bench player. He can pinch hit against righties, becomes a defensive replacement when Youk is at third and Lowell is removed or sits and on days when V-Mart catches. Sox have a ton of corner flexibility and, in my estimation, are better set up for next year without Mike Lowell.

We all know Youk is going to be the third baseman of the future, and with Lowell's hip problems, having an additional first-baseman and another lefty bat can't hurt the Red Sox. Victor Martinez did have some injuries in 2008, notably the arthroscopic surgery on his elbow, so you never know when one loose Joba fastball could send him back to the DL.

Kothcman, Duncan and down-the-road, Lars Anderson, can back up for any of these scenarios.

Contract
LaRoche is about to be a free agent at the end of this season, while Kotchman is arbitration-eligible through 2011. The nice part of that is that it gives the Red Sox brass more contract flexibility for a guy who is most likely a bench player for the remainder of this year.

He's not a free agent until 2012, so I would expect that Kotchman gives the Red Sox more trade package options in the off season with Lowell likely to be moved. Being able to throw in a 26 year old with some major league experience in a trade package is a nice to thing to have in your back pocket.

Until then, it's nice to have the defense in your pocket if something were to happen to Youk or Martinez.

More on Victor Martinez
Did I mention that this was the deal I wanted?

If his first-half offensive numbers are any indication, Martinez is a great get, especially when you factor in his ability to relieve Varitek behind the plate, and hit in the middle of the lineup from both sides of the plate.

He's an RBI guy--something the team needs right now with Bay struggling-- and the psychological distractions Big Papi now faces with the recently revealed roid debacle.

Contract-wise, the Red Sox can pick up V-Mart's option for 2010 for $7.5 million. Given his offensive history, that is relative bargain for a middle of the lineup hitter who can also catch. You have to imagine that Tek is not going to be able to catch as many games the remainder of the season, or next year, given his age, and the wear and tear.

While Adrian Gonzalez is younger with a great opposite field lefty bat, I am very content with Victor Martinez who has a strong history in the AL and has seen a whole lot more AL pitching and AL East teams than Gonzo (though don't count out the Sox going for Gonzo in the off season as the Padres are in major rebuilding mode after letting Peavy go).

And ultimately, the Red Sox have shown that they can make the deals they want to make without giving up too much. While Masterson was a good long reliver and showed signs of being a solid starter, the three B's (Bard, Bowden and Bucholz) are well-protected future stars of the game.