Monday, November 06, 2006

Building the Rotation: A Hypothetical Situation

DC and I were chewing the fat online and he came up with an interesting trade idea: trading Wonderboy, Hee-Sop Choi and George Kottaras to the Tigers for Jeremy Bonderman. The logic is pretty simple: the Tigers are (according to DC) looking for infield help (check), power at first base (a stretch there, but Chris Shelton’s minor league numbers weren’t really much better than Choi’s) and “someone for Pudge to groom (check).” In return, we get Bonderman, whose number in Fenway over the past three years include an ERA of 3.20, an OPA of .180 and a WHIP of 1.00 and who, at age 24, is going to start really hitting his stride soon.

Now, taking into account the fact that the sample size for these stats in only 14 innings pitched at Fenway, I can’t help but be intrigued by the idea of this trade. After all, win it all or not in 2007, next year is the last year we have Curt Schilling. Baseball wisdom acknowledges the need to have two strong pitchers in the first two spots on the rotation, so assuming Beckett steps up into his future role of ace, the Sox will need a second pitcher to fill the hole left by Schilling’s departure…and it won’t hurt if they fill that hole with a pitcher who’s young, strong and relatively cheap. Plus there are already rumors that the Tigers are trying to shop Bonderman around.

There’s one problem though: Papelbon. Terrible problem to have, I know, but unless something strange and terrible happens, Paps will be in the rotation next year. Not counting on the return of Matt Clement (and I’m certainly not doing so), that means the only starting spot left to be filled is a fifth starter and those are a dime a dozen…and certainly not something you trade prospects for, especially when you need Bullpen Help. Remember that bullpen problem? It still needs fixing, both in middle relief and in the closer role and those pickups need to take precedence over picking up Bonderman, especially if (and the “if” is the biggest assumption of this conversation) Boston wants to deal prospects.