For Those of You Who Were Fans of Bay's Glove

...you now get some sort of vindication, thanks to an announcement by the creator of Ultimate Zone Rating that he's revised the UZR formula to better account for ballparks like Fenway that have unusual outfield layouts. Bay and Ellsbury - another member of the negative UZR club - had their 2009 totals increased, with Ellsbury rising from 18.3 runs allowed to a slightly less ugly 10.3 runs allowed, and Bay making the leap from 13.8 runs allowed to a much nicer 1.2 runs prevented.

However, before anyone see this change in formulas as a sign that the Sox screwed up by letting Bay go, don't get too excited: it turns out Theo & Co. have their own formula for measuring defensive capabilities, and they saw both Bay and Ellsbury as being about average in the field. This revelation led John Tomase to conclude that Bay's time in Boston was done earlier than we initially thought:

The new UZR wouldn’t have impacted the Sox’ decision to let Bay walk. Even with the adjustments, Bay is still at minus-55.9 runs lifetime, though part of that can be explained by his 2007 knee surgery.

More importantly, we now know he was as good as gone once contract talks collapsed at the All-Star break over his medicals.

It's an interesting conclusion, though I have to wonder if the deal still had a chance until the two parties realized they were nowhere near meeting on price.

Someone Actually Shorter Than Pedroia on Sox Roster

Before last night's 2-1 win in Toronto, Dustin Pedroia (aka 'Lil' Shit' in my vernacular) evidently stood back-to-back to lefty Pawtucket call-up Fabio Castro and discovered to his scrappy delight that Castro was a slightly shorter man, according to Boston.com.

Castro is listed as 5' 7"; Pedroia is officially listed as 5' 9" but as the Globe reporters noted,  Pedroia the Destroia was only a little taller than Castro. Castro prompted number 15 to call him his "favorite pitcher of all time."

In related news, Castro was sent back to the Rhode Island team today to make room for--wait for it--Alan Embree. Yeh, he was money in the bank in the 2004 playoffs and World Series if I recall, but he was also roughed up quite a bit in the regular seasons he pitched with the Sox. Given the recent woes of Okageemah and the pen in general, another lefty could be helpful.

Embree, 40, pitched for Colorado last year and had an ERA of 5.84 in 24.2 innings.

Nervous yet? I am.

Buchholz Very Effective in Toronto
As far as the 2-1 Buchholz win last night, the young Texan gave the bullpen a much needed rest after Monday's Beckett implosion hitfest. Buch went 8 innings and gave up one run in the first inning. He pitched to contact outs and saw some good defense behind him from Scutaro who was likely feeling comfortable in the "Sky Mall" where he played last year.

Buch pitched out of jams well getting a ton of fly ball and ground outs and lowering his ERA to 2.19 for the best in the rotation. Given that Shaun Marcum was stifling Sox hitters, Buchholz kept the team in the game.

Mike Lowell, who pinch hit for Ortiz late in the game, took a bases-loaded walk that brought Lil' Shit (who went 2 for 5) home for the eventual win. Ramirez closed the game.

Love for Manny Fading in LA?

Funny post over at Vin Scully Is My Homeboy--a solid Dodgers fan blog--about how Manny went back to L.A. to treat his strained calf while his team was playing the Nationals in Washington.

Evidently, Manny was so bored being at home--while his team played an extra innings game in D.C.-- he needed to do some shopping at a BestBuy in Pasadena (which one commenter claimed was to buy The Sopranos dvds).

The woman who snapped this pic now finds Manny despicable. KellyKelll wrote on her TwitPic:

Official manny hatter!!! Uhhhh dodgers are in extra innings and he is "hurt" shopping at my store. Uhhh

In defense of most of the other Dodger fans commenting on the site, they generally don't see the big deal as long as he gets his treatments. Most Red Sox fans would have been sending him death threats and calling for his trade (until the playoffs when we loved him).

I still miss his swing and Yankee killing.

At least he wasn't spotted at one of the many medical marijuana spots in Cali. He must send someone out to fetch for those treatments.

Red Sox Pitching Is A Big Fat Mess Right Now

A 4-1 lead was squandered Sunday by the Red Sox bullpen for a 7-6 loss in 10 innings. The Oki-Doke gave up a bomb to Miguel Tejada and the pen went south from there. Sunday suckage.

The offense--which has looked anemic at times (especially during the Rays series)-- was a bit more clutch during the Orioles and Rangers series, but it can't play comeback kings every day. At least some of the key-injury replacements in Hermida and McDonald have been producing for Navajo Jewish Lawyer (Ellsbury) and swing-and-miss Mike (Cameron). But as Mazz rightly pointed out, run differentials in the last week were abysmal. He wrote:

In six games against the Orioles and Texas Rangers, the Sox scored 32 runs … and allowed 32. (For the sabermetricians: that’s a run differential of zero.) All four Boston victories were by a single run and both Boston defeats came in games in which they were leading or tied entering the seventh inning.

The bigger and more alarming issue is the pitching. When I say pitching, I mean all of it: Starters and relievers. The numbers don't lie: Walks are way up for everyone. Earned run averages are bloated. They all seem to be struggling to keep opponents off the bases and out of scoring position.

Don't think the starters are that bad so far? Four out of the 5 in the rotation have ERAs over 5. OVER 5! Only Buchholz is showing solid starter numbers so far at 2.70--and not one reliever has an ERA under 2. Surprisingly, Manny Delcarmen has the best ERA of all relievers at 2.16.

Here's an ERA breakdown of starters and key relievers:

Lester: 6.23
Beckett: 5.26
Lackey: 5.09
Wakefield: 5.40
Okajima: 4.70
Ramirez: 7.56
Papelbon: 2.70

Feel free to argue that it's really early and these guys have spring kinks to work out. I would agree except for another major statistical problem: Walks. Add to that the inability to throw runners out and you have intense pressure on pitchers to either get strikeouts or pitch to contact. Contact has not been leading to enough outs.

Look at these walk numbers (BB per 9 innings):

Beckett: 3.51
Lackey: 3.52
Lester: 5.40
Buchholz: 3.78
Wakefield: 2.88
Papelbon: 7.20
Delcarmen: 6.48
Okajima: 4.70

So while the Red Sox took two of three in the last two series, the numbers are tough to swallow. Don't be surprised to see some bullpen moves from Theo soon. For starters, Wakefield moves to the pen as Dice K is due to pitch this coming weekend at Camden Yahds in B-More.

Time to beat up on the bottom rung of the AL East.

I Rest My Case

Sure, Wakefield didn't pitch particularly well and after the first inning it seemed like they weren't going to score again until the next game (maybe), but then the bullpen came together, the offense broken their 0-for-32 with RISP streak, and the defense didn't commit any errors.

Well, unless you count those nine stolen bases.

But the stolen bases were in the first half of the game, right? The bad half of the game, where it seemed like Boston was going to lose its sixth straight game and look pretty terrible in the process. The good half of the game was pretty awesome, because the ratio of runs given up to runs scored suddenly flipped, the score tied up, and a 31-year-old AAAA player named Darnell McDonald who had just came up from Pawtucket to replace the injured Ellsbury got to be a hero twice. In fact, he got to be a hero by bashing opposite field balls over and off the Monster, so not only is the guy giving the Sox their first piece of good news in a long time an underdog hero, but he did it in the old-school Red Sox style.

So: take away the day games and suddenly the Sox get a win. So my theory clearly has merit. Especially after I conveniently ignore that the two pitchers who served up the heapin' helping of come-from-behind victory were Darren Oliver (of long-standing Red Sox infamy) and Frank Francisco, who as a closer has more hits than strikeouts and innings put together. Hopefully the Sox will ignore those two as well and use the confidence boost from last night's win to get back on the victory bandwagon.

Stop the (Day Game) Insanity!

I have a theory about Boston's current streak of sucktastitude, their 4 and 9 start, their 5 game losing streak, their 1 and 6 home record, their 3 for their last 10, and it has nothing to do with voodoo like team slumps or lack of gelling or anything crazy like that. No, the real problem is a preponderance of day games.

Bear with me, I have a half serious theory on this one.

Six out of the first thirteen games took place during the day (including some weekend games), which was fun for me because it meant I got to listen to baseball at work, but seems to have been absolutely awful for the Sox, because they lost most of them. They even lost the Patriots' Day game - where the Sox have the advantage because that game is so bloody early - and lost it so badly that Paul Revere is probably still spinning in his grave from shock. And besides coincidence, here's why day games matter: strong defense requires stealth, and stealth cannot be accomplished without the dark of night. Unlike our Baltimorean neighbors in the standings, the Red Sox are not a .300 team; it'll just take a few less day games to start that climb back to respectability.

If The Blue Jays Win the A.L. East, I Will Eat a Cockroach

You will be wasting your time if you save a roach for me to eat, people.

The Jays--while a fine Canadian organization with good fans--are about as likely to win the AL East as the Mets are to win the NL East. It's called pitching, and the Jays and Mets don't have enough of it to go around.

After 8 games, however, the Roy Halladay-less Blue Jays have been tearing the cover off the ball with odd contributions from a power-hitting Alex Gonzalez (with 4 dingers in a week) and a hot Vernon Wells. They are 6-2. Enjoy the fall from the top, kids-in-the-skymall or whatever the hell that place is called.

Our beloved Red Sox are playing .500 ball and currently sitting above the Baltimore Orioles in 4th place. It means about as much as having a wrinkled grandpa Steven Tyler belch out "God Bless America" at Fenway on opening night. I don't want to disparage Aerosmith's contribution to 1970's hard rock, but at this point, he can't sing worth a damn. Go back to Lynn and endorse Kelly's Roast Beef or something. That dude looks more and more like an old lady with every passing season.

It's early to make any definitive arguments about the Red Sox, but some of the concerns I had are increasingly becoming evident. Mike Cameron has a long hill to climb before he gets my support. I want contact hitters, not chase and miss guys. His defense is nice, but Ellsbury should not have lost his job after the plays he made and his contribution at the top of the lineup.

Call it "defense" when you want to save some coin with the Cameron signing. I can live with the savings as long as V-Mart is locked up and everything in their power is done to get Adrian Gonzalez at the trade deadline.

Sox could have signed Jermaine Dye, kept Ellsbury in center and had another big bat in the lineup. Probably could have had Dye on a nice one year deal. Offense matters in close games too, but as long as that money is put to good use elsewhere I can scream at the tv and Mike Cameron for a year I guess.

Beltre and Hermida are looking like good fits (and I expect Hermida to get more playing time). Beltre could take a few more pitches too for walks, but hard to complain when he has been hitting. He's hitting .375 with 6 RBIs and no walks in 24 at bats.

Scutaro has been decent too at the plate, but his glove and arm are not impressing me yet. I hope that changes.

Ortiz looks lost again early, especially against fastballs, but he has had a few opposite field hits (both against Twins), so patience is key. I said it last year after guys like Bill Simmons said his career was over: He can still hit. He will hit. Get off his large Dominican back.

He's not the same guy since Manny took the chronic train to Chavez Ravine. He's not the same guy since the wrist injury. And about the roids (aka "vitamins and supplements"): he did them at one point, but he showed real resilience last year. He finished as one of the hottest hitters in the league by the end. Without him, Sox do not make the playoffs last year. Basta. Enough. The man will hit.

The most surprising thing to see so far is the Sox pitching. It's all over the place. Lackey has looked good, but Beckett and Lester have not been particularly solid. And the bullpen? Not sure what is happening there. Bard and Papelbon need to get their other pitches working because guys are sitting fastball all day long. It has hurt them a little already.

So now what? More Twins at Target Field tomorrow and then 4 against the Rays at Fenway which should be tough. Rays are a very talented team.

Also, the Yankees are still the best team in baseball. I don't like admitting that, but they have a lot of balance. I don't envy a pitcher who has to face that lineup from top to bottom.

Go Sox.

The Real Source of Victory on Opening Day

Dustin Pedroia might have been the instrument that delivered the blow to tie the game on the way to Boston's first win, but based on Chan Ho Park's comments in the interview below (thanks to Don for the link), we might also want to thank a virus or a bacterium or two.



I give credit to Park for keeping a straight face. Dude must be killer at poker.

The Last Night of Spring Training

Anyone else feel that last night's slugging match was the last real Spring Training game and we won't start counting towards the standings until the Sox and Yanks play again tomorrow night? The pitching was generally wretched, the umpiring at first base so bad that I thought we were watching the 2009 playoffs all over again, and that ugly double whatever it was that allowed a New York run to score while the ball was in a player's glove in the infield gave the lie to the vacuum-like defense supposedly under Boston's command. With that supposedly deficient Red Sox offense, I might be forgiven for thinking the night was sunk after the Yankees pulled ahead in the fourth.

Of course, led by Mr. First-Hometown-Triple-Since-1999, the offense beat expectations and fought back twice, giving Youkilis the hero status and a prophet-like status thanks to his Spring Training utterance:

“Hey guys,’’ he shouted out to his teammates that February morning. “Can we score a bunch of runs on Opening Night so we don’t have to hear about this anymore?’’

Clearly the man knows things. We should all listen to him, no matter how crazy he sounds:

How to Age a Buchholz

Clay Buchholz, Nick Swisher, and an actor by the name of Adam Scott are in a new ESPN commercial - Buchholz and Scott are singing "Sweet Caroline," and they try to get Swisher to join in, and of course he won't because he plays for the Yankees. You can watch the whole thing below, but I'm posting it not because it's particularly funny, but because for the first time, Clay Buchholz looks older than 12 years of age. I actually had to watch the whole commercial twice, because I didn't realize it was him; I kept looking for a guy who looked like someone out of a Little League photo. Maybe they gave him sort of aging serum before the shoot.

Alas, Poor Lowrie

It's funny: Jed Lowrie's time out with injuries were such a big part of his 2009 season that I forgot that his time away from the majors in 2008 had more to do with the Julio Lugo experiment and Lowrie's suckiness resulting from his hidden injury, not time on the DL. As a result, when I saw the headline that doctors have diagnosed him with mononucleosis, my first, entirely irrational thought was that he's cursed. Now that I've refreshed myself on his transaction history, I realize he's just unlucky: he hurt in himself in 2008, did enough damage to miss the first half of 2009, compounded problems with additional arm-related issues at the end of the season, and now, as he's still seeking to establish himself as a reliable player, he comes down with a disease that people normally get when they're in middle school.

Of course, he still looks like he's in middle school, so maybe we shouldn't be surprised. I wish him luck, but I'm not holding my breath about his taking over Scutaro's job any time soon.

One Last Hurrah for Nomar

Sometimes, the Red Sox are weird. Really, that's an understatement: they do odd things all the time, but those odd things usually have some sort of competitive purpose behind them, rich in statistical reason but a bit baffling to the average fan's sense of logic. They'll acquire a guy like Mike Lowell, for example, in a move that looks like agreeing to take out someone else's garbage so you can have their Ferrari - after you've already thrown in your Porsche, of course - and then that garbage will turn out to consist almost entirely of gold bars and stock options to Berkshire Hathaway.

That might be the most complicated metaphor I've ever written on this site.

Point is: sometimes they do things that are weird and out of character with their straitlaced competitive style and more of a throwback to the nostalgic view of the Yawkey years. Like letting an old man sit in the dugout because he's a living symbol of dedication, or naming a foul pole after a guy who hit a particularly dramatic home run. Or, today, signing a one-day deal with an iconic shortstop so he can retire as a member of the Red Sox.

Six years later, the Nomar relationship - such as it is - is less complicated. As Francona commented today, explaining, in essence, why this return full circle makes sense, "He was kind of Boston-ed out." I can understand why: as a fan base, we're overbearing and obnoxious. We care too much about our pro sports teams, we put the performance of every athlete under a microscope, and we're not afraid to express admiration or disgust - or to vacillate the public face between the two at lightning speeds. I'm not sure I'd want to play in Boston.

But time and distance seem to change things. Garciaparra had one last blaze of glory with the Dodgers in 2006, but he no doubt realized his best years were in Boston. Unlike Manny, who did his best to become a person non-grata when he became Boston-ed out, Nomar didn't incur fan ire when he left, and the crowd approval on his return to Fenway last April was tremendous and touching to watch. So Nomar likely lost most of the bitterness that made him want to leave. In the same article announcing his retirement, Theo noted that the two men had maintained some sort of relationship after the trade, and clearly got to the point where they separated business and personal. They were able to work out this unusual deal, and the tall, thin guy from California with the OCD batting rituals and the infield acrobatics came back to the Sox one last time. And really, as odd as it is as a concept, it's pretty cool way to go out.

He's Wicked Smaht, Hey

In addition to being a victim of a height-related Doppler shift that causes a person to see him at a different height depending on viewpoint, it appears that Dustin Pedroia is possessed of razor-sharp mind that can cut through the fat of today's detritus-laden baseball chatter and go right to the bone. Run prevention, for example, holds no truck with the People's Champion:

"'I don’t even buy into that stuff. We have great pitching, we have great defense, and we have good offensive players,' he said. 'I don’t even know what run prevention is. I’m a baseball player. I don’t know how to read very good; I don’t know how to write very good. We just go play, man. That’s it. We’ll be fine.'"

Dustin Pedroia: 2008 MVP and Gold Glove winner, 2007 Rookie of the Year, master of the Queen's (President's?) English. There can be no finer option to man the dusty paths between first and second base.

Dice-K Speaks!

This article might be the best thing I've read about the Sox all winter. Ok, that might be hyperbole; I'm sure if I had a gun to my head, I'd say that, given its timing, the Lackey signing was the best thing I heard this winter, but hearing that Matsuzaka is not only being up front with his employers about a potential injury but confessing to the media that this admission is a sign that he's turned a corner when it comes to talking about being hurt gives me a lot more confidence in his reliability for this season. Here's why:

Earlier this week, I was watching some late night TV when I came across a sports show on the prospects of the Mets. The show had one of NYC's sports journalists on as a guest expert, and he was in the process of running through the pitching staff when I tuned in. Not that this should surprise any of you, but the essence of his comments was: Santana is Santana. Everyone else is a question mark whose ultimate usefulness depends the cooperation of a few different factors and healthy sprinkling of fairy dust. Thankfully, Boston's staff isn't in nearly such tough shape, but without knowing how well Matsuzaka had learned the lesson of injury honesty, his presence made the fourth or fifth pitching slot as much a mystery as the ones facing the fans of the team in Flushing. Which is huge, huge news: no one wants to be like the Mets.

Truck Day!

There may still be enough snow in the garden in front of my apartment to contemplate building Calvin-style snow sculptures, but today from Boston leaves a vehicle that, like the return of the robin, promises the onset of spring. "Truck Day": two simple words that promise the arrival of days when the sun's light provides more than a mockery of warmth, when the touch of the breeze no longer feels like an icy assault, when the stark skeletal growth of trees softens under a bower of green. But most important, Truck Day means Pitchers and Catchers, and Pitchers and Catchers means Spring Training, and Spring Training means Baseball. Sweet, sweet baseball. Your return cannot come soon enough, I promise.

Would You Want to be Called an Injury in Waiting?

The first part of Nick Cafardo's notes column from yesterday discusses the odd circumstances of Jason Bay's departure, tying his decision to leave to Boston's insistence on a contract with protection clauses against injury. Cafardo points out that Lackey and Drew both agreed to take pay cuts or lose options if they become injured, suspects that Boston will require the same stipulations of Beckett and Papelbon, and noted that Dr. Thomas Gill, the team physician who questioned the strength of Bay's shoulder, made the prescient call on the future of Pedro. As you might expect, all of these points lead up to coup de grace indictment of Bay's decision:

What’s puzzling is that if he felt so confident about his physical condition, and understood how good Fenway and Boston were to him, why wouldn’t he go along with the medical provisions, just as some prominent teammates had? If the Sox - according to Bay’s version - were willing to go three guaranteed years and a fourth year with medical protection at $15 million per year, what was so offensive about that?

I expect the answer is little simpler than Cafardo expects: even though four years at Fenway would likely make Bay's numbers far more attractive than four years at Citi Field, choosing to accept a medical provision brands Bay as a player with suspect boy body parts, even if he makes it all four years without injury. At the end of his contract, Bay would be in his mid-30s, already looking at less money as his career declines, and wouldn't want to carry the value-lowering label of potential injury in the bargain. He may be screwed either way: by declining a medical provision while insisting he's healthy, he gives power to the argument that he's an injury waiting to happen, but I can understand why he might have chosen the contract with the Mets as the lesser of two evils.

Theo Epstein Cares Not For Your Arbitration

I was going to look over the news of the Papelbon signing without comment, until it occurred to me that the Sox just rewarded a decline in performance with the largest contract ever given to a fourth-year closer. The Globe puts the numbers pretty well:

His ERA was down from 2008 (2.34), but perhaps the more notable change was his WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched), which increased to a career-high 1.15. His WHIP was 0.95 in 2008 and 0.77 in 2007. His strikeout-to-walk ratio also sank to a career low (for any of his full seasons in the majors) of 3.17-1. He put up a mark of 9.63-1 in 2008 and 5.60-1 in 2007. He set a career high in walks with 24.

The new deal comes after the expiration of a deal that made him the highest paid first-year arbitration-eligible closer, and two years after the deal that broke the record for highest salary to a non-arbitration-eligible closer...and four months after the blown save that ended the season in a sweep. I'm not saying that Papelbon is washed up or shouldn't be paid as an elite closer, but even if the Sox are keeping the money on a short leash because they think they'll replace Papelbon with Bard in a year or two, why pay an arbitration-eligible player that much more just to keep things from moving to the arbiter? My theory: it's Theo's arbitration-free streak that make Boston willing to pay more, even if the numbers suggest they're taking a risk. After all, it seems logical that keeping younger players from having to go to a third party to make the money they think is fair would give the Sox a reputation as a place where young players would want to sign, making signing draft picks and motivating minor league talent a little easier.

Big Surprise: Dice-K Hid an Injury Last Year

And he hurt himself while training for the World Baseball Classic, so despite what Ichiro might say, we've got another injury to lay at the feet of the WBC. And he hid it from the Red Sox all year, but that's no surprise: players have to walk the line between developing a reputation as a wimp who hurts his team by resting every injury and playing so hurt they're under-performing, and they're going to make a decision here and there that looks terrible in retrospect. What's troubling about the story is that once again it was a Japanese media outlet that broke the story. Maybe Dice-K feels more comfortable talking to journalists when he doesn't need a translator - that seems to be the implication, anyway, because he keeps breaking these stories to journalists in Japan - but if he's going to make an announcement like this one, why not have a press conference and spread the word at large? It feels like he's either thinking word won't get back to the English language press, which is clearly ridiculous, because it keeps happening, or this particular admission - and every one he's made thus far - was something he admittedly only after some probing questioning, which suggests he didn't intend to tell the public in the first place.

Ladies and Gentlemen, Your Boston Braves!

Because they're so focused on pitching and defense this year, you see. With the Lackey signing, Hermida getting his chance after all, and the acquisition of Beltre and his enormous bat of unimpressiveness, we're excited about the pitching staff, downplaying the holes in the lineup, and talking defense. Like geeky defense, the kind where the papers start talking about how many runs a third baseman like Beltre will save over Lowell:

The move is in line with the Sox’ stated desire to improve their run prevention. Beltre is an above average fielder, earning a 14.3 ultimate zone rating according to fangraphs.com. Contrast that with Lowell’s minus 10.4 UZR (or just ask a scout), and it’s clear the Sox have dramatically upgraded their defense at the position for 2010 and possibly beyond.

All well and good: if you can reduce the performance of players to an equation and determine that Beltre's stronger glove and weaker bat will generate more runs than Lowell's weaker glove and stronger bat, and balance in the cost of choosing Beltre over Youkilis when the only alternate is Casey Kotchman, the decision makes some sort of sense. Everything comes down to runs eventually, so if your defense-heavy team saves more runs than it gives up by being light in the offense department, you win ball games and don't look like an idiot for not trying to compete with the Yankees.

Except there's one problem: the Yankees were already pretty good in one category (pitching) and even better in another (offense) last year and they won the World Series. This year they might actually be a bit better - I'm thinking about the Granderson acquisition here in particular - and Boston's response is to jettison offense and hope the results come out in the wash. It might work, but I think as interesting as this Boston team seems for the new decade, we've got another summer of second place running to look forward to.

I'm John Lackey!

Happy New Year. This Fitzy episode is from months ago, but it occurs to me that it's even funnier after the Lackey signing:

Who Would You Rather Have: Bay or Hermida?

Because it's starting to look like we're going to have both. Bay's request for more time and loot than Boston's 4 year, $60 million offer has met with no takers except the Mets (4 years, $65 million), and Bay either doesn't like his potential numbers in Citi Field or he'd rather not sign with a team that's made spectacular season blowups a regular habit, because his agent is trying to resurrect interest from the Sox front office. Meanwhile, Nick Cafardo has some thoughts on how Jeremy Hermida will never develop the big bat he's reputed to sport - Cafardo makes some Ortiz comparisons - if he's playing fourth or fifth outfield with Cameron/Bay/Ellsbury/Drew/whomever. With the team in the process of assembling a group that seems better suited to win today than tomorrow relying on Hermida's offensive development doesn't seem like a good strategy, but the more I think about it, the more I think what Cafardo is saying makes sense: if this guy really is a slugger in the making, let's see what he's got and take advantage while he's in Boston.

Wacky for Lackey

So...despite my vitriolic assertions to the contrary, I guess The Boof wasn't Boston's only off-season move for the pitching staff, what with the John Lackey signing and all. In fact, I might even be willing to say that I completely acknowledge the error of my ways and resolve - once again - to never criticize the methods behind the madness that is the front office, because - despite all of the odd experiments - the Sox keep making these deals that make so much sense. With Lackey, they now have:

• A superior starting pitching staff that's on the verge of becoming 2007-like godly if Matsuzaka carries his form from the last four starts of 2009 into 2010. We thought the '09 staff had an excellent chance of dominating the field in Spring Training, but the success of even that illustrious group required a blessing of the stars; besides the Dice-K question, all the 2010 Sox need ask of their starters is for health and consistency with their already established numbers.
• A trade piece in odd man out Clay Buchholz, who'll have the chance to become the "maybe he'll make it" ornament of some other team's staff. Buchholz becomes trade bait for the bat the Sox will need to replace Bay, now that they've elected to...
  
• ...sign Mike Cameron and choose defense over offense in left field. The deal has everyone saying farewell to the likable-but-expensive Jason Bay and those Gay for Bay t-shirts Robin planned to market, but frees up money for one of those expensive contracts the Sox will likely acquire with Bay's offensive replacement.

Of course, we can't celebrate a successful hot stove season just yet: someone has to agree to make the trade that makes the Cameron acquisition worthwhile at a price that doesn't make us cry for a mortgaged future or (even worse) a missed opportunity. Anyone got a player with .896 (or better) OPS they can spare?

They Get Granderson, We Get...The Boof

Dan Shaughnessy has a column in the Globe this morning about how the Sox are selling us a bill of goods by talking about a "bridge period" in the team's development instead of pushing to sign the players that'll make the team competitive against the Yankees next year. I had intended to write the whole thing off as the usual crank trash that Shaughnessy likes to write, but then two things happened: first, I read Joe Posnanski's post on how much of a steal the Granderson deal was for the Yankees and the full impact of that trade finally hit me after several days of denial. Then, I went to Boston.com to look for the Shaughnessy column again so I could blog about it and the Lowell trade speculation and saw this on the home page (I've added a red underline to underscore the point):

I almost choked on my breakfast when I saw that. The Boof?!? A 28-year-old pitcher with an injury history as long as his surgically repaired arm, 96 appearances in four seasons, and a career 5.12 ERA? I get the timing is coincidental, but damn: the Yankees boost their already formidable lineup with a righty whose swing seems tailor-made for the Stadium and the Sox get a pitcher with a ridiculous nickname on his last shot for major league success. To say things seem inequitable with a poor chance of improvement is an understatement.

When Playing Hurt is Rational and Irrational All at Once

I would like to call Manny Delcarmen an idiot. I really would: because he pitched secretly hurt for half the season, he looked like he had completely lost his edge, and made us question whether or not he belonged on the team. After all, a healthy Manny Delcarmen may not make the difference between a first-round exit and a World Series victory, but he's still a piece of that all-so-important functioning bullpen and therefore responsible for an additional win or two.

So I would love to blame him, but I can't: if an athlete in 2009 feels like they have to hide their injury, it's a symptom of a larger social problem, where players are so worried about looking they have the competitive spirit that they sacrifice health for the game and make themselves less effective in the process. It's an irrational stance to take, which is why it bothers me: in a perfect world (in my head, anyway), players would not play when they were hurt and people would not judge them for lacking the competitive spirit. Alas, this perfect world does not exist, so we have the next flawed thing: a player has to make the decision about whether or not it's more important to be judged by their competitive ability or their health and some - like Delcarmen - choose competitive ability over health as a rational decision and end up losing both.

The Amazing, Flexible Pedroia

Now it all makes sense: letting the market empty of potential shortstops was part of the front office's plan all along! While we were all zigging and trying to talk ourselves into settling for a Marco Scutaro/Jed Lowrie combo package, the Sox were zagging and talking to Pedroia about switching from second to short in 2010.

Well, that's the rumor, anyway. It's not a confirmed thing and - given the quotes Pedroia gave to the Herald when quizzed about the possible move - something that may be more in his head than anywhere else. In fact, for all of the move's logic - because after all, it's a lot easier to find a decent second baseman than it is to find a decent shortstop - it's giving me some deja vu. After all, it was a little over three years ago when Alex Gonzalez last left Boston and we were asking the same questions then that we are now, even if the circumstances are a little different.