Book Review: Eric Seidman - Bridging the Statistical Gap

A few months ago, I received a copy of Eric Seidman's recently-released book, Bridging the Statistical Gap, that the author graciously agreed to send to me. As you can probably guess from the title, Bridging the Statistical Gap is a book about baseball statistics, but with a twist: looking to show "more casual fans that they're already very close to understanding the ultimate goal in sabermetrics but just don't realize it yet," Seidman wrote his opus hoping to lessen the gap of understanding between baseball fans. Think of Bridging the Statistical Gap as a field guide to the motivations of your modern stathead and you'll get the idea behind the inspiration.

For the most part, Seidman succeeds in his quest, primarily because he knows where to start. The book begins with a discussion of batting average - long a battleground between statheads and traditionalists - and why it (or slugging percentage or on-base percentage or isolated power or on-base plus slugging) is not the be-all end-all of statistical measurements of hitters. But as a part of his bridging philosophy, Seidman doesn't throw batting average out entirely; he brings up the slash line instead, incorporating batting average into a larger statistic that gives a slightly clearer picture of a batter's abilities, letting the novice take refuge in the familiar while offering him or her the opportunity to learn about more indicative numbers.

Seidman continues the theme of building on known quantities to reach unfamiliar ground, using the familiar metric of the quality start to introduce his own statistic (the adjusted quality start) and discuss new ways to measure the win/loss records of pitchers. As with the batting average discussion, the chapters on pitchers are full of clear explanations and examples of Seidman's ideas in action. Your head might spin a bit from all of the number tables, but the ideas have the power to stick.

The remainder of the book focuses on practical examples of statistics in action, albeit in the type of estoric situations number geeks love: Michael Jordan's year in minor league baseball; a new look at the old debate on clutch hitting; Cy Young and the greatest pitchers of all time; insight on what makes a great playoff pitcher. The point of all of these chapters is the same, though: anyone can understand (and dispute, if they choose) the methodology. Anyone can read the results and use the numbers in their own arguments about best and worst, taking part in the rituals that fans enjoy. Bridging the Statistical Gap doesn't have all of the answers and it doesn't answer all of the questions, but it does a great job of starting up a dialog that lets anyone participate.

In Honor of the Rainout...

...And the chicken of hot fiery death Indian food I had for dinner waiting for this showdown to wash away: how about some Beatles.

Now Broadcasting Live from My Dreams

Super ESPN chick Erin Andrews and super NESN babe Heidi Watney together at last. In the words of the venerable sage and philosopher Garth Algar: SHWING!

But then again... maybe this is what's causing Varitek's marital woes.

Dice-K for Cy Young?

Sean McAdam on Dice-K's Cy Young chances: "There are guys who have won more games -- there's Mussina, there's Saunders, there's Lee, all of whom I think have to be thought of ahead of Dice-K -- but if he continues to pitch at this clip and ends up with 18 or 19 wins, and only maybe three or four losses, he has to be in the conversation." I'm inclined to disagree: Matsuzaka's certainly been a cornerstone of the 2008 rotation, but Cy Young front runner? It seems like a stretch.

Looking at the current AL leader boards, Dice-K isn't in the top ten for ERA, WHIP, innings pitched, K/9, strikeouts, ratio of strikeouts to walks, or - most telling of all - ERA+. He's third (after Cabrera and Burnett) in walks allowed. He's got the second best winning percentage and is tied for fourth in wins, but he gets 5.32 runs of support a game and for pitchers, wins are a meaningless statistic anyway. If we want to put a Red Sox on the short list, we should really be talking about Lester - ninth in ERA, six in innings pitched, fifth in games started, sixth in ERA+ - but even his numbers pale in comparison to better candidates. Really at this point, there shouldn't be much debate. Unless Cliff Lee (first in ERA, third in WHIP, first in BB/9, six in innings pitched, eighth in strikeouts, first in strikeouts to walks, first in ERA+) hits some sort of (pitching) brick wall in the next few weeks, there's no reason why he shouldn't win the award.

Jonathan Papelbon: "The Incredible Hulk, But a Little Stronger"

I do love me some Papelbon video, because the guy is probably about as crazy (in that fun way that makes for good TV) as Kevin Millar. Note to the Comcast guys: asking him about safe topics like Mannys is all well and good - MDC has mechanics problems, it's a relief to see Manny Being Manny somewhere else - but that's not why I'm watching. I want to see more of the personally directed questions, because that's where Paps gets to shine. For example: asking him about Chad Johnson contemplating a legal switch to Ocho Cinco and whether or not Paps would do the same was brilliant, because now we know that Cinco Ocho is actually a surpressed personality appears only on the mound and at casino tables. We know the strengths of the talent, people. Let's use them.

Does the Color of Your Sox Matter?

With Lowell going on the DL, the Red Sox are put in an interesting situation. I’m not talking about roster moves or who is going to pick up the offense… I’m talking about the lack of racial diversity in the lineup. Wednesday night, the Red Sox had a 100% white infield. That’s almost unheard of in the diverse landscape of today’s Major League Baseball.

Think about it. The Sox have Ortiz, Lowell, Coco, Lugo, Cora and Ellsbury as the only non-white (fully white… I think there is some mixing in there) position players on the Red Sox roster. The pitching staff isn’t any better with only Delcarmen, Lopez, Oki and Dice-K fitting the diversity criteria.

Race is a touchy subject and as a New Englander, I approach the issue with some trepidation and a whole ton of liberal guilt. However, that doesn’t mean I can’t make an observation right? I mean look at this team and the moves they have made over the last few years: replacing Pedro with Schilling, Hanley Ramirez for Beckett, Lugo gave way to Jed Lowrie and most recently Manny was traded for Bay. You could make the argument that Theo was trying to create the master race on Yawkey Way!

But only if you were an idiot.

This doesn’t mean ANYTHING really. I just thought it was interesting that a town (Boston) that gets a bad rap about racism suddenly has a team that looks like they could have come over on the Mayflower… ok maybe not… but you know what I mean. Boston has some race issues in its past that it is still trying to get over and maybe having a team that looks like the Anti-Celtics racially isn’t the best idea marketing-wise.

I guess my biggest (and only serious) criticism is that the front office has lately taken some big steps in the Asian markets (getting Dice-K for big bucks) while neglecting black and Latin fan bases. Is this a purposeful act? Absolutely not, but I still think some of the Sox management should tap into an ever growing fan base. And isn't baseball the game that brought all peoples together? Can't we bring that back?

Besides, it’s kinda sad to see Papi have nobody to complete is 7 step hand shakes with after a big homerun.

Patriots 19, Texans 17

I know we said we weren’t doing game blogs…but in a game that had a 10 run lead blown, a 4 run blow save and a rookie knuckle ball pitcher that gave up 8 runs and didn’t get the loss… it is hard to pin down what the most messed up part of the night was.

Papi hit two 3 run homers in the first inning. Read that again and remember that the Sox had to COME BACK and win this game. Now pick up the pieces of your brain. Thank God for Youk (also 2 HR) and his go ahead bomb. These two goliaths combined for 11 of the total RBI and should be feasting on Texas long horn continuously as the week progresses. Too bad the pitching didn’t follow suit.

Zink might have been overwhelmed by the Texas offense, the bright lights of the big leagues or the fact that he was spotted a 10 run lead… but he fell apart quick. That’s only trumped by the awful outing by Aardsma and Delcarman. These two looked like late scratches from the Western Mozambique Olympic softball team rather than major league pitchers. Not what you want to see when October rolls around.

But if you really want to highlight who I felt bad for, it was a tie between:

Kevin Cash who was the only starter without a hit.
Feldman who’s ERA absorbed the 10 run barrage.
And
Any poor sucker dumb enough to bet the under.

What a wild one. Let’s hope next time the Sox don’t play down to the level of the team they are trouncing. It’s just embarrassing.

Paul Byrd and the Survival of the Fittest

Does Bobby Kielty know something we don't? Last August, he signs a deal with the Sox and ends up a hero in the World Series. This year, after obtaining his release from the Paw Sox in July, he resurfaces a month later by signing a deal with the AL Central-leading Twins.

Word just came out that the Indians dumped Paul Byrd on the Sox for cash or a player to be named. Byrd's 37 and having a subpar year, but as ESPN points out, he's won his last four appearances - with an average Game Score of 62.5 (which is excellent) no less - and he's got a solid 4.06 ERA in Fenway over 31 innings. In other words, I like where this idea: cheap acquisition who might do some good in the back of the rotation.

Next question: Does the Byrd acquisition mean Buchholz is finished in the majors for the season, or that the Sox think Wakefield has more shoulder damage than they've let on? I don't think so; I think this trade is part of a larger strategy. With Wakefield's injury and Clay's spate of ineffectiveness, Boston has two open rotation slots in the middle of a playoff run. Wakefield is out for two starts, but Buchholz has the opportunity to redeem himself, Byrd has the opportunity to establish himself, Colon has the chance to return to form, and one of the many minor league callups (be it Zink, Pauley, Bowden, or Hansack) has the chance to step up and make a mark in a fluid situation. It's more of a survival of the fittest type of pitching arrangement that gives Boston some options in a time of weakness, the opportunity for retreads to put up solid numbers for a future a contract hunt, and for the Sox to show off younger talents to up their trade value rather than a definitive changing of the pitching guard.

Best Sox Brawlers: Revised

Wicked Good Sports has a list of their top 5 Red Sox brawlers from the past two decades. Everything looks good - Greenwell seems rough enough around the edges; we've spoken many times about how Tavarez was crazy (and even saw him go into full action mode once for no apparent reason); Trot Nixon's "dirt dog" moniker stems as much from his willingness to charge into any fight (particularly against the Rays) as it did from his body-destroying style of outfield defense; but the list falls flat at Rich Garces. Really? El Guapo was the best you guys could come up with out of twenty years of players? I can tell you who jumps to mind as a much better alternative with less than sixty seconds of thought: Tom Brunansky.

In case you're not vigorously nodding your head, here are some points in Bruno's favor:

• The 'Stache. When you're looking for a group of guys to back you up in a fight, you can never go wrong with someone who's got a well-developed lip covering. I'm working on a theory that a good mustache is worth at least six months of training as a boxer.
• Slugging Power. Brunansky won't ever stand out as a phenomenal hitter, but he was certainly someone poured out of the classic slugger mold. Sluggers are big guys, big guys are good to have in a brawl.
• The Nickname. Who would you rather have guarding your back? A guy whose nickname means "The Beautiful One," or a guy whose nickname makes him sound like a mob enforcer?
  

Runner up/sixth man for the team: Gabe Kapler. Ask the Pride of Worcester about the Hebrew Hammer's fighting skills.

The True Psychology of the Wild Buchholz

If this report is true and Manny really wants to go to the Yankees, he knows what will happen any time he comes to Fenway. If he's happy with shooting his Boston legacy in the foot, more power to him.

I was just wondering recently what happened to Devern Hansack; now it looks like he might be taking Wakefield's rotation spot for his next two appearances. An ERA over four in the minors ain't no great shakes, but the WHIP and K/BB ratios both look pretty good. We can certainly use the rotation help right now...

Speaking of which: let's talk (some more) about Clay Buchholz. We know he's unlucky; that statistic hasn't changed since last week. What's caught my eye this week was the Globe's article/interview with the troubled pitcher, which focuses on Buchholz's bad habit of relying on his offspeed pitches to get him out of trouble. Hitters around the league know this habit; they watch and wait for the offspeed stuff like music fans counting the days until Scott Weiland's latest tumble off the wagon, and they let it go flying by. Very quickly, Clay gets into bad counts, everyone starts thinking fastball and next thing we know, he's blowing through three run leads. Clearly the situation requires a new strategy, but unlike Robin I don't think Clay's goose is cooked just yet: no one denies that his stuff works really, really well when it's in the right sequence...and we all know he knows how to sequence properly. The trick is to adjust the sequence, to get, as Buchholz put it himself, "ahead in the count a bit more often where they don't have a choice to swing at off-speed stuff." It'd be great if he could do so this year, but like Lester in 2007, I think the adjustments will take a few months to really take effect.

Feat of Clay

Question: Who is 0-5 since is his recall from AAA ball?

Answer: The same guy who got the Red Sox a no-hitter last year.

I answered that question… but the rest here are up to people who know better… cause I got NOTHING.

Clay Buchholz is a disaster right now and it makes you wonder… is this guy only getting the starts because of some past glory?

Now I am not any sort of sentimentalist, but I can see why you would think that a guy who could go 9 solid without letting up a base knock would be good in the following season… but what about flukes? Could that have been the aberration and this the norm? Clay has a devastating change, a good solid fast ball and curve but he can’t seem to locate any of them. He doesn’t look like he trusts his stuff enough to just throw it across the plate.

And then there is the “I’m frustrated cause I just walked the last 2 guys” pitches he throws. Those tend to go 400+ feet and end with poor Clay looking like his dog just died. Is this going to be common slope with him?

Maybe it’s the lack of options then. Maybe there isn’t anyone better to throw up there every 5 days. Now with Wake going on the DL and missing at least 2 starts (boy does that suck) the premium on starting pitching is even higher.

Then again why did we go with Buchholz over Masterson? Wasn’t Masterson doing a lot better before he was thrown into the bullpen? Don’t get me wrong, I think Masterson is doing great in the pen, but would he be more valuable pitching his 6-7 innings in one game rather than stretched over a week?

So if anyone has any answers to these pressing questions I’m all ears, because as it stands right now, the youth at the back of the rotation looks more like crap then Clay. Ugh.

Can Someone Explain This Brian Giles Mess to Me?

This whole Brian Giles thing was fun, wasn't it? Even if it did seem to come out of left field. Yesterday, we had the report that the Sox had claimed Brian Giles from the waiver wire, causing all kinds of speculation: why would Boston want a solid-hitting outfielder when they have a full lineup and a full bench? Were there plans in the works to replace Coco? Is there really something going on with Papi's clicking wrist? The Providence Journal hit a conspiracy nail on the head yesterday and today when they speculated that the move might be a block to keep Giles from ending up in Tampa Bay or LA, citing Giles' partial no-trade clause to Boston as a block; presumably the clause would be a sticking point that would keep the Sox from having to worry about doing a deal they didn't like.

ESPN now reports that Giles is likely to veto the trade, which I guess means the strategy worked: as long as the status quo doesn't change, Giles will remain with the Padres, no matter how many times they dangle him on the waiver wire. But I'll admit that the first thing I thought of was some sort of complicated flipping where the Sox acquire Giles just to shoot him off to somewhere else (Kansas City, maybe? For Mahay?) to get some more relief pitching. Not sure if it'd even work - I suspect there's something about waiver rules that would complicate things - but it's a slow day between games...

Manny Breakup Reaches 8th Day, Insanity Dominates

An off day and a columnist's mind turns to thoughts of a left fielder in Los Angeles. Shaughnessy isn't the only one, either: a week later and the sports media that covers the Red Sox is still talking about Manny. Not about the validity of the trade, mind you - except to talk up how well Jason Bay's been hitting or find some definitive statistical proof that Big Papi's lineup protection is a myth - but how well Ramirez has been hitting, how happy he seems, how everyone loves his antics, how the Dodgers will start selling hats with fake Manny dreds attached. Look, we get it: it hurts he left, it hurts that (it seems, at least) that he played his team for personal gain, and it hurts he doesn't suck now that he's playing somewhere else, that karma or poetic justice doesn't seem to apply. The use of "breakup" in the title of this post wasn't just a dig at the frenzy that continues to buzz a week later: Manny's departure has all of the hallmarks of a really nasty end to a relationship, right down to the malicious gossip (Manny's quote about the team - and, by extension, RSN - not deserving him, Schilling's response) and the pain seeing your ex at the club the next weekend, flirting with a group of charmed guys and getting free drinks from the bartender.

But as anyone who's been through a bad breakup knows, the only cure to the bad breakup hangover is to cut the other person out of your life and move on. That's why I don't get it: why Schilling's getting riled that SOSH isn't interested in painting Manny as a bad guy, why Shaughnessy continues writing columns of invective, blaming a guy he never really liked for going somewhere else. The story's over, guys. Time to move on.

In Search of Some Metal Relief

Some cross-pollination of interests: I really love metal. Robin also loves metal. The Red Sox need relief pitching. Pat Neshek is a relief pitcher; a pretty good one, too. Pat Neshek loves metal (and real metal, too; his choices for entrance music include selections by Lamb of God and Chimaira). Sounds like a match made in heaven...

If only he wasn't on the DL for the rest of the year...

Here's To Pie In Your Eye, Jason Bay

Not entirely sure why the clip on this page starts with the Papi pie to the face and concludes with three minutes of Jason Bay wiping off his face instead a bit of a lead up to the pie attack, but that's not what's important: on a scale of one to ten, where one is Manny pushing Youkilis (more sweep under the rug and not fun at all) and ten are the Manny / Papi / Cabrera complicated handshakes of awesomeness from 2004 (or maybe Kevin Millar doing Manny's press conferences), random pies to the face has to be at least a seven. Maybe an eight. It's also the funniest thing this team's done all year, a throwback to the lovable idiots of yesteryear who made that August hot streak a thing of beauty and glory that will live forever in our minds, growing in fondness with time. So yeah: more pies to the face. More random pranks. More Big Papi. Let's make this team of professionals fun on a human level.

Jon Lester Is Pretty Damn Awesome

This post on Joe Posnanski's blog caught my eye because I attempted (unsuccessfully) to acquire Ziegler for my fantasy team yesterday. Named after A's reliever Brad Ziegler, it's a good illustration of a new statistic in development.

Clay Buchholz may not be living up to his promise at the moment, but he seems to be the victim of extremely poor luck: his BABIP for 2008 is an astronomical .364, over 100 points higher than his 2007 total (which was far lower than the .300 that defines "average"). Statistics say there's a better pitcher in there somewhere; maybe he'll show up before Colon comes back and makes the point moot.

Jon Lester, on the other hand, seems to be a golden god - or so says Peter Bendix over at Beyond the Box Score. Bendix points out that Lester's problematic stats (ERA, K/9, and the oh-so-worrisome BB/9) have all improved - not only since 2007, but in the twelve starts since his no-hitter, which seems to be a statistical turning point. Bendix suggests Lester might be the best pitcher in the AL, which seems a little extreme until - to tie the two ends of this post together - we note anecdotally that Lester does seem to have become the Type B pitcher ("An extreme ground ball pitcher who keeps walks down") Posnanski talks about in his Ziegler post and, more importantly, that Lester's Ziegler number for his last thirteen starts (starting with the shutout) is 122.4, higher than list-leader Brandon Webb's 112.6. Seems like Bendix has a good point...

Jed Lowrie is a Lugo Upgrade, Please Keep Him

Bit of a slow news day, I guess, because the Herald decided to remind us of the existence of Jed Lowrie, "plugging" - as they put it - the hole at shortstop left by Julio Lugo and his DL stint. I think the Herald's being a little generous: saying that Lugo's departure left a hole in the lineup and on the field implies that we're actually missing the only player in Keep Your Sox On history who's managed to get his own hate tag. So much for Lugo, but besides being a breath of fresh air, how good has Lowrie been in comparison?

Surprise, surprise: that breeze you're feeling isn't imaginary. Lugo's hitting 19 percent worse than the average player in 2008; Lowrie, 2 percent better than average. Limiting the data to the 13 games he's started since Lugo's blessed departure (the length of time, I feel, that he's really been able to start proving himself), Lowrie's BA/SLG/OBP looks even more attractive: .317/.400/.415, far above what Lugo's put up for the year. Terry Francona calls Lowrie "Bill Mueller-esque," a comparison that - beyond its connotations for a possible Green Lantern-like passing of the Pro moniker to Lowrie at some point in the future - speaks well for Lowrie's success as a hitter, particularly taking Mueller's better years into account. There's also Lowrie's error-free defense, with its (much) higher fielding percentage topped on the same range factor. Overall, it's a compelling package for an upgrade, further floated by Lowrie's age: he's 24. Lugo's 32. Lugo's best days are behind him; Lowrie's got reams of potential. Maybe Lugo will be part of a late-season deal when he comes off the DL? Is that too much to hope?

Mark Bellhorn Lives!

Quick observation of joy: I'm in Providence, on a weekend jaunt enjoying what turns out to be one of the coolest cities in New England. More specifically, I'm at the Trinity Brewhouse, enjoying a local amber lager with a sandwich, when what should I see in front of me but a local sporting the jersey number of one Mark Bellhorn, one time member of the 2004 Red Sox and founding member of the Robin is Psychic Social Club. After congratulating the gentleman in question for his good taste, I returned to my meal, secure in the knowledge that there will always be a place in Red Sox Nation for second basemen with average defensive abilities, long hair, a twelve o'clock shadow, and a batting eye that's too sharp for the umpires of this flawed, flawed world. Hail Ding Honk!

Manny Questions are Answered in this Q and bAy (and other bad word plays)

To break this whole Manny trade and Bay pickup deal-e-o I’ve decided to go internal. I will interview… myself… in this in-depth Q and A. Please sit back and enjoy.

Q: Did this Manny deal REALLY need to get done?

A: Oh hell yes. These last few weeks were the final straw in Boston’s love affair with Man-Ram. He can hit the stuffing out of a baseball, but he can burn bridges just as effectively. Besides feuding with teammates (Youk), knocking down team officials and his imaginary injuries… Manny has SAID a ton of stupid things this year too. You can’t have those distractions on a winning team.

Q: Was it a great deal?

A: Oh hell no. You can’t get equal value for a Hall-of-Fame hitter. It doesn’t exist. Plus, throw in the fact that to get a team to take a needy disgruntled player you needed to give up 2 other major league ready players AND pay the rest of his salary… it looks like the Sox got 100% fleeced.

Q: Did they?

A: Not really. Getting rid of Hansen is adding by subtracting. His 5+ ERA and uncanny ability to make blowouts close games will not be missed. Brandon Moss is kind of a sore spot because he would work well in a few places and was a solid 5^th outfielder… but it’s still a backup. And as I stated before… you needed to get Manny out of town. So getting Jason Bay is some really good return on a desperate deal.

Q: What Soundgarden song where you thinking of when the trade was announced?

A: Limo Wreck.

“Building the towers, belongs to the sky
When the whole thing comes crashing down
Don't ask me why”

Q: What feelings were going through your mind when the Manny trade unfolded?

A: Well if the song in any indication, I was ready to write off the season and the team for the foreseeable future. I felt everyone was giving up for no reason. Why not join them?

Q: What was the most shocking moment for you in this whole ordeal?

A: Hearing about the secret meeting between Theo and Sox veterans where everyone agreed that Manny needed to go. Wow. This blew me away. ALL the vets invited wanted him gone? That’s almost unbelievable that nobody was coming to his aid. There must have been so many behind the scene things with Manny that nobody knew about or maybe the idiot savant routine gets old if you are around it all day.

Q: Who got too much blame in this ordeal?

A: I think Theo got a bit too much crap from the fans and media. What the hell was he supposed to do with a player who didn’t want to play? Manny put the Sox in an un-winnable situation that wasn’t going to go away like the last few debacles. This was the end of his contract and the Sox almost got stuck getting nothing for him. Good on Theo for pulling the trigger and getting at least a bat back.

Q: Who deserves more ire than they received?

A: Scott Boras got off with a slap on the wrist in my mind. He barely got a dirty look and he should have gotten at lease 4 or 5 evil stares. This guy takes over Manny at the beginning of the season and Manny being Manny becomes Manny being Madonna for a half season. You don’t think Boras wasn’t saying “Manny you are the best, but they don’t respect you. Are you gonna take that?” on a daily basis? Boras doesn’t get paid if Manny can’t land a fat contract with free agency… so why make him happy in one place? Screw that meddling bloodsucker.

Q: Funniest joke from the Manny trade?

A: Well there are a few:

Manny traded to Moon. Blocked deal when he found out that it wasn’t made of cheese.

Manny to Seattle. Blocked deal when he found out that Sonics season tickets are nonexistent.

Manny to Green Bay for Brett Favre. Yeah, but where are we gonna play him?

Manny to Mars. Blocks trade when he finds out women are from Venus.

Manny to Dodgers so he can play with Nomar and Derek Lowe. Oh wait… no joke… and they are managed by Joe Torre. See? Real life is way better.

Q: So after you talked yourself into the deal, what Soundgarden song popped into your head?

A: Fresh Tendrils:

“Long time coming
It seemed to take me through
Long time coming
Many served the few”

Q: So after his first game, what do you think of Jason Bay?

A: Wow… umm I hate these rush decisions. I mean come on! One game? What a small sample size. Sure he scored both Sox runs, but what does that mean?

Q: No really. Are you now a Bay fan?

A: Hmmm tough to say. I love him… but am I in love with him? I know it’s too soon and he is just a rebound star. But wow… that Canadian grin, sharp ringing triple and sexy OBP? Please Jason, lets get some Molson and just go crazy on each other. Just you me and a bag of bats… call me?

Red Sox Nation Missing Manny

Somehow, I don't think Jason Bay will ever make a commercial like this one:

Manny (02)
by bsap11

Ok, enough dwelling in the past. Time to welcome our new number five hitter with open arms and retire the Manny Ramirez tag until he signs with the Yankees this fall. Eek.

Manny and Jason Bay: The Morning After

Robin was so overwhelmed by grief that he had no choice but to drown his sorrows last night in copious amounts of alcohol; he'll be back in action tonight. Instead, now that I've had a few hours to process, I'll give my thoughts. I'll start with a story:

Four years ago yesterday, I went to a party at the house of a friend from college in Swampscott, Massachusetts. Not seconds after I got out of the car, DC ran up and gave me the news: the Red Sox had traded Nomar in a three-way blockbuster deal that replaced our beloved OCD-laden shortstop with some guy from Montreal we'd never heard of. My jaw dropped and in shock, words traveled from brain to lips without filter: "How the **** can they trade Nomar?"

Thanks to advances in Internet technology, the end of trade season's falling on a workday, and an assemblage of friends with itchy text message fingers, Manny's impending demise in a Boston uni was easier to track, but I felt - I still feel - how I felt that weekend day in 2004: "How the **** can they trade Manny?" The answer's rhetorical, of course: hitting stud or no, it's clear Manny was unhappy in his current work environment. The press was against him, he'd bashed management far too many times to really hold their support, and from what we can tell from the papers, his teammates were tired of him, too (Interesting side note on the teammates thing: a friend I talked to this morning speculated that Papi's long absence might have removed some of the shielding that keeps Manny from being too much Manny). The end result was the logical solution and finding a replacement of any kind is an added bonus. Heck, we should be glad he's in the NL, on a team that's had a lot of trouble making it past the first round of the playoffs.

Will this trade kill our hopes for a 2008 repeat? Part of me hopes that this desperation move will be some more history repeating, spawning yet another magical August run up to October that will again make Theo look like a genius and Manny another addition to a string of players (Nomar, Pedro, Damon) who the Sox dumped at just the right time. However, there's another part of me that knows that Nomar was having a poor year in 2004 (WARP, to pick a good overall statistic, was far below his 2002 and 2003 totals), while Manny is hitting better in 2008 than he did last year. We won't really know until November, but yesterday's desperation move may be the dumbest thing the Sox have done in a long time.

So happy trails, Manny. We'll always have 2004 and 2007, the power combo with Big Papi, the high five on the Millar catch in May, the game winning single in 2006, the walk-off homer from the second game of the 2007 ALDS...on and on and on. Eight years of memories, some fun, some wacky, some glorious, some all three...we'll look back on them and forget the bad times like they never happened. Good luck in LA.

I'm Still in Shock

Robin will have some more in-depth analysis later this evening, but this post in the Projo Sox Blog sets the tone well: the Sox just traded half of one of the most successful offensive dynamos in history for a slightly inferior replacement part in the hopes of jumpstarting a season that's hitting the rocks. Ignoring the three for one price, Ramirez for Bay is like switching out a neon sign with intermittent voltage problems for a compact fluorescent on a stable line: Bay will get the job done, but I don't think he'll be as fun to watch.

In the Midst of Trade Deadline Tension, Kevin Millar Brings Comedy

Goddamn it I love Kevin Millar. Can we find some way of bringing him back without putting him on the roster? Maybe just to do press relations between the players and the media?

Getting No-Hit in the Big Game

Having an opposing pitcher shut you down is one of the most humiliating ocurances in all of sports. The 0 that pops up next to your teams name in the box score is a constant reminder that:

a). You just witnessed an amazing moment that people will talk about years from now.

And

b). Your team was on the ass end of it.

Now you may be thinking I am talking about the near miss the Sox had facing Lackey the other night, but this is more of a metaphor. Sure, Lackey went into the 9th and was 2 outs away from a traditional no-hitter, but that threat was ended when Pedroia lined a single into the outfield and Youk hit a bomb into the monster. Goodbye shut out, goodbye no hitter, hello plain old demoralizing loss.

No, the real no-hitter the Red Sox are facing right now is the “Front Office No-Hitter”. It’s is dangerously close to the trade deadline and NO DEALS have hit the horizon that have looked like ANYTHING the contenders in this league are making.

Angels (who swept the Sox as I typed this) got Teixeira who just so happened to be the power piece they needed. Well done there… weren’t they already the best team in the league?

Meanwhile the Yankees (remember them?) hit the jackpot with Nady and Marte from the Pirates (who they basically gave nothing) and replaced the hurt Posada with Pudge “freaking” Rodriguez from the Tigers for…. KYLE FARNSWORTH??? Come on! That’s like trading in a dime for 5 nickels.

But lest I forget, the Red Sox made a pretty big pickup too. Yep Boston recently received the “Screw this place, I hate it here” Manny for almost nothing! Just when you thought he was out of your hair, grumpy Manny popped up again and the media came with him. Now I know this looks like the end of the road for Manny… and maybe it is… but does anyone honestly think the Red Sox can trade him for any value? As Eric pointed out, the trades offered look pretty silly.

But then again, at this point the Sox would almost be right to trade Manny for 30 cents on the dollar because I really don’t think that $20 mill option is getting picked up and you would like to get SOMETHING for his years of service (besides him hating Boston suddenly and being hated back) and with the way the front office is swinging and missing… they aren’t gonna make any real contact before the deadline is long past. I think we need to get used to third place (behind the Yanks and Rays) and forget about the playoffs this season. Hell, in the abbreviated words of Jim Mora:

“Playoffs? Playoffs? I'm just hoping we can win a game…”

Clay Buchholz and Game Score

I spotted the following headline this morning: "Red Sox’ Buchholz had good stuff, but Lackey was better." 'Odd,' I thought, 'How do you figure?' Could a guy who gave up five runs really have "good" stuff? As it turns out, there's some room for argument. Consider the facts:

1. We're viewing Buchholz's start behind the blinding glare of Lackey's near no-hitter. Given the circumstances, only a pitching duel would make Clay look good.
2. Buchholz might be responsible for five earned runs, but only three of them scored when he was on the mound - the other two came home after Craig Hansen took over in the seventh.
   
3. Buchholz's line without those two additional earned runs (6.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, 90 pitches/57 strikes) qualifies him for a quality start, a statistical measurement of quality.
4. Buchholz left the game with runners on first and third and one out. It's possible a pitcher with better control than Hansen might have prevented the runner on first from scoring, but the runner on third seems likely to have scored no matter what.

Point number four is the difference: if those two runs don't score, Buchholz ends up with a decent-looking night. Should he be punished for the two base runners his relief allowed to score?

Fortunately, we can give that whole argument a miss by relying on a statistic instead: Game Score. Game Score figures out the value of a pitcher's start by starting with 50 points, adding points for positive actions (innings pitched, strikeouts) and subtracting points for negative actions (hits, walks, runs). Results above 50 are considered quality starts - "good" in terms of the article headline. Last night, Buchholz scored a 41. He did not have good stuff.