Monday, May 07, 2007

A Coming Sign of the Apocalypse

Robin and I joked yesterday that we weren't going to write anything big or make any jokes about Clemens signing with the Yankees ("I thought Clemens said he wanted to sign with a team that was in contention?") but then I opened up the Globe sports section, my "damn, I hate stupid people" mental alarm went off and now I'm up on my soapbox. Here's what's grinding my gears: the Globe is running poll asking whether or not the Sox messed up by not offering Roger the Dodger more than a prorated $18 million to pitch in the 2007 season. Out of the 10,415 people who had voted, only a paltry 1,094 (10.5 percent) said no, the Sox did not drop the ball by not offering the world's most famous merc a king's ransom to pitch. In other words, there are 9,321 (89.5 percent) people out there who have some serious explaining to do, lest I smack them upside the head with a defunct Red Sox Nation member's card, tied to a brick.

Why Eric, you may be saying, that's the sort of foaming-at-the-mouth crazy we'd expect from Robin, not you. Well, here's my problem: I hate it when people act like star-struck morons. Yes, for all of his personality issues, Roger Clemens is one of the greatest pitchers to throw a baseball; a man whose lifetime ERA+ (144) and 2006 VORP (42.1) put him among the top tier of current pitchers, no matter what age. But there are three things that Red Sox fans are forgetting when they vote "yes" to assign blame to their team:
  1. Age may finally be catching up to the Rocket. Baseball Prospectus puts his projected 2007 VORP at 28.3, which puts him in the same league as leading lights like Javier Vazquez and Freddy Garcia. VORP projections can be inaccurate - Josh Beckett is almost certainly pitching better than his projected 27.5 VORP right now - but there's no way Boston should overpay for an elderly pitcher with third spot in the rotation potential.
  2. Have you seen our pitching staff? Who would Clemens replace? Schilling and Beckett are solid as rocks. Matsuzaka has some problems, but they're surmountable and he's not going anywhere anyway. Getting rid of Wakefield is an unthinkable sacrilege that would cause the computer sending the transfer request to burst into flames on the spot and by the numbers (lack of run support and all), Wakefield is still the best pitcher in the rotation. JT Killer is the fifth spot wildcard, but guess what? We've got Jon Lester gunning for his position in the wings and he's already paid for!
  3. Curt Schilling. After playing second fiddle for years, Schilling has been solo in the top spot since Pedro left in 2004, growing into the elder statesman role that caresses his ego like Dr. Evil stroking Mr. Bigglesworth. Bring on another older power pitcher in a different year and there would be an acceptable level of friction (say, the level of competition between Schilling and Johnson in 2001); do it today and I think you just end up pissing Schilling off because he'll feel knocked off his perch.