Wednesday, January 31, 2007

What's Up With Wily Mo?

Last year, he was the Golden Boy slugger the Sox snatched from the Reds in exchange for the Red Sox player well-known for chasing college-aged...well, snatch. Now Wily Mo Pena can't even get a contract and might become the first arbitration case of the Epstein years? Answer me this, Theo: is it because you got married?

Let's examine the situation a little bit. Pena is 25, a mountain of a man who can absolutely rock the ball when he catches it properly and is surprisingly quick for a man his size. Last year he had his highest average and second highest OPS in his four year career, albeit with his second fewest ABs. He legged out 15 doubles and 2 triples, a testament to his speed. All good things so far, I would think. 162 game averages aren't nearly as impressive, with a group of average and below-average numbers, but Pena started out as even more of a free-swinger (unless I'm misinterpreting seasonal average) than he is now. On a related note, his strikeout total and strikeouts per at bat, while much higher (90 total, .32 per AB) than it should be for a full-time player, declined for the first time last year, even taking into account his reduced playing time last year. So what's the deal?

DC put me onto this train of thought earlier today, but I wonder if maybe the Sox don't want to take the time to train Wily Mo to be a more patient hitter, even though it seems like his experience as a Red Sox has already started him on that road. With the sudden appearance of J.D. Drew on the market this winter, his subsequent signing by the Sox and the acquisition of the more patient (if slower footed) Eric Hinske (and his two-year contract) last summer, it's possible Pena's value in Boston has dropped to the point where the Sox are happy to low-ball him or send him somewhere else without feeling like they're on the short end of a stick.