Time to get ready for what will surely be an epic battle for the ALCS, and you know what that means: both sides have to get their trash talk ready. Oh wait, we're good: the Rays fans are already good to go.
That said, I was deeply, deeply disappointed in what I heard from the Fenway faithful during the top of the 9th inning of Monday’s Game Four. With the game tied, it sure sounded like they were chanting “Beat LA.”
Maybe they did that earlier and the night before too, but I’ve been either muting Chip Caray or relegating y’all to the picture-in-picture. But for the life of me, there is no reasonable explanation for why the Sox fans would be chanting that.
I can’t imagine they’re stupid enough to be looking past the Angels and our Devil Rays to a World Series date with the Dodgers.
But that leaves the equally stupid rationale that the LA they were referring to were the Angels.
Seriously Sox fans, were you really comparing the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim to the Lakers?
Let me clear a few things up for ya, David:
Nope, that was the first time in the series. Glad to see you're keeping tabs on us, though.
You didn't mention the context for the chant: the bullpen was either about to surrender the lead or had just done so and was struggling for the last out (I don't remember exactly and I can't seem to get MLB.tv's feed to work properly. If I've got the context wrong, please feel free to let me know in the comments). Either way, fans in the stands were looking at the possibility of another late night, extra-inning loss and a trip back to LA for a tough game five. Reminding the boys in the field about that possibility (not to mention summing up that responsibility in an easily-repeatable chant) definitely falls under the responsibilities of a fan.
Celtics fans may have come up with "Beat LA" during the NBA playoffs, but that doesn't make the chant the province of basketball fans any more than it made "Yankees Suck" the province of baseball fans. Chanting "Beat LA" at a Sox/Angels game might have been contextually appropriate, but saying that a fan base was comparing their overhyped (if angry) foes to a basketball arch-rival completely misses the point: these are the fans that chanted "Beat LA" at a Mariners game in early June, the fans that for six or seven years pulled out a rousing chorus of "Yankees Suck" at sporting events as varied as Patriots games and UMass hockey games. It's a rallying cry. If your team had more than five fans, you might get that.
I'LL WRITE IT AND WE'LL DO IT LIVE!!! That's right people, I'm live-blogging for the win. I figure I can add a little extra mojo, a little extra grit and a little extra... I dunno... Bill O'Reilly power? I want to avoid a plane ride back to California and the bleeding eyes I am sure Dice-K will provide. We must now put our hopes on the back of the Jon "big game" Lester and his cancer beating arm. Please end this now. PLAY US OUT!!
Anyway, I will be back at this spot (and DC with a chicken wing dinner and a pile of beers) every half inning to recap, expound, expand, poke fun and wish bodily harm upon Mike Napoli. I mean REALLY? Napoli? I don't know what that means!
See you at 8:27 or whenever TBS decides to put this on.
Start: We are good to GO! Well everyone but Mike Lowell. His corpse has been put on the DL for the rest of this series and the ALCS (if the Sox get there) against the Rays (who just put the White Sox away). It's a HUGE loss, but last years WS MVP wasn't really contributing anyway... so maybe it will be addition by subtraction.
1st Inning: Buck Martinez (not Showalter) just said the Red Sox have 3 jack rabbits? I'm not even drunk yet. I don't think. Good news is that Lester could be ONE of those jack rabbits... he MOWS down the Angels 1, 2, 3... a good sign, a good start. Too bad the Sox bat's were just as quiet. The 1,2,3 bottom of the 1st included a pop up for the Struggling Dusting Pedroia (who might make that his legal name). I bet he's glad they vote for the MVP before the playoffs. Sox 0, Angels 0
2nd Inning: Lester gets Vlad out quick (whew... guy scares the crap out of me), gets Hunter to pop out and then Napoli puts on a 8 pitch battle before he ends up walking. There goes the perfect game. God help me I want to stab Napoli in the face. Rivera proves he's still alive and gets a single to left, but Kendrick ends the 2 out rally with a BIG K. Lester still looks good. HEY my wings just got here! Eating and typing? How is this gonna work? Hopefully better than Youk's eye... he goes down looking on an inside fastball. DREW picks him up with a single and suddenly 50,000 Sox fans wonder why he didn't start yesterday. I think DC wants to kiss his swing, it's so sexy! Bay draws a walk before Kotsay hits into a 1 pitch double play. Damnit! Mike Lowell could have done that! Sox 0, Angels 0
3rd Inning: TBS announcers bore the crap out of me. I think Chip Carey is a robot on painkillers. Figgins gets a one out hit and Anderson moves him over to second. I really liked it last year when he had pink eye and looked like he was 100 years old. Teixeira (who has too many vowels in his name) walks and I am starting to worry we might have the "BAD" Jon Lester showing up. Vlad looks so damn scary. His foul balls go 100,000 feet. These HUGE foul hits confused Kotsay enough to RUN into the 1st base umpire... but PEDROIA save the day and stops a infield hit!! What a dive and flip to first! Thankfully Vlad runs like Jason Voorhees. Pitches adding up for Lester (54).
Jed Lowrie is doing a good job of making me forget why I liked him in the regular season (oh yeah! he's not Lugo!) and pops up quick. Tek also grounds out quick making sure that Theo's eye roll will be that much bigger when he has to sign his extension check in the off season. Boston parents should teach their sons to catch. Jacoby finishes off this disaster by grounding out weakly to the mound... again. Lackey looking locked in. Sox 0, Angels 0
4th Inning: I have NO idea where this umpire's strike zone is. Let's just call it inconsistent. Torii Hunter doesn't care about that though... he just FINDS a way to strike out. Napoli (who just may be the Devil) tries to STAB Jon Lester with a broken bat. He gets thrown out at first for his troubles. I want him to die in a fire that starts in his beard. Juan Rivera fools the announcers by grounding out to third. Fooled me too. I thought he was gonna strike out. Lester looks better.
After going up 3-0, Pedroia grounds out and is now 0-15... I can't even make a joke about that. Good thing Papi has no time for jokes an lines one to dead center. Youk grounds into a double play at third... OR DOES HE??? Bad throw to second and everyone is safe! Lackey is looking wild as Drew battles... but pops out to center and advances Ortiz to third. Some BLINDING speed from big Papi. Bay is a raging pile of emotion (like a wet sponge) and pops out to left. More stranded runners. I would say "this could be a long night" but this game is blazing by. Sox 0, Angels 0
5th Inning: Kendrick grounds out weakly to Youk. "I AM SO HAPPY THAT WASN'T LOWELL" chirps DC. He also asked why Craig Sager dresses like a blind pimp. Aybar and Figgins hit back to back singles... but I was distracted because Chip Carey said about Lester "...this boy has become a man very quickly" and Ron Darling replied "It's true his body has changed." Can't stop laughing. Ouch my sides. A ground out... and in steps Teixeira... BIG K!!!! But a ton of pitches. Lester is up to 84 total.
Hey the lead off man is aboard! Kotsay lines up the middle. I can't get over how much Lowrie looks like a rodent. He pops up after getting a 3-0 count and will now keep the "Ratboy" moniker for the rest of the night (maybe longer). I can't believe how wild Lackey looks... but the hitters keep letting him off the hook. Apparently Tek can't believe it either! Line drive into right! Kotsay to third! I will freak OUT if they can't get this run in. Jacoby does his best... but MANAGES to ground into an out and a RUN.. here comes Pedroia... chants of MVP! AND BOOM!!! High off the monster! Tek scores! I go crazy! Fenway goes crazy! Papi goes... quietly? Crap. But they got 2! Sox 2, Angels 0
6th Inning: I am now drinking for every Frank Caliendo promo. I may pass out and die by the 9th. Kotsay with a crazy diving play to get Vlad for the first out. WHEW! Next up Hunter who hits a dribbler to Youk and it's ANOTHER play Lowell wouldn't make. Napoli works another full count before Buck Martinez reminds us that Lester bounced back from cancer. Napoli sends a deep drive right to the edge of the Monster and into Bay's glove. I hope he breaks both his legs putting on his catchers gear.
Sox seem to be happy with the 2 run lead and get two outs real quick... but Bay pounds one past Aybar. Ugly play. Aren't the Angels supposed to be GOOD at defense? Kotsay taps it weakly to first and bails out Lackey. Sox 2, Angels 0
7th Inning: Is it time to start counting outs? Rivera gets a quick one. TBS announcers start to jibber without making sense while Kotsay makes another great play behind 1st. Good move putting him there tonight Tito... Sean Casey wouldn't have had that. I HATE Aybar's stance. He sticks his ass out like he's farting on every pitch. His ass can't get it past Jacoby. Will Lester (who is a freaking hero) come back out for the 8th? He's up to 109 pitches. DC says yes... I don't know.
A lead off hit for "Ratboy" but the nickname stays. Sorry Jed. Tek pops out to center while DC hopes Hunter brakes a leg. No dice. Jacoby hits a double play ball up the middle and the game rushes along. Nothing like last night. Sox 2, Angels 0
8th Inning: No Lester... but here come comes Oki. I am only a little scared. More "interesting" calls by the umpire. I still have no idea where the strike zone is. Doesn't matter as Oki gets 2 quick ground outs right to Pedroia. Teixeira (still too many vowels) looks really imposing. He looks like a bad guy mercenary from an action movie. Like the guy the hero kills RIGHT before he kills the lead bad guy. He takes first on 4 pitches. Tito has seen enough... here comes Masterson to face Vlad. Pass the beer and the pepto. Crap. He walked him after a 0-2 count. Torii Hunter is up... "Torii" "Torii" "Torii"... WOAH... bad wild pitch! Runners advance and my butt cheeks clench. They just keep showing how well Hunter has been doing with runners in scoring position and it is making me SICK. DAMN DAMN DAMN DAMN DAMN... 2 run single. This isn't happening. There goes Lester's win. All with 2 outs??? Where the hell is Papelbon? Can't he get 4 outs? Oh no... here comes Napoli. I want him to get all of the worst diseases. Masterson looks scared out there and I am eating my freaking shirt. Masterson gets him to pop up but the damage is done... not again... not again...
Can't anyone score on this team? Pedroia's luck seems to have run out and he lines out to second. Papi looks at 2 strikes and makes me wish I could see the guy I remember from 2004. What happened to that guy? Is it the wrist? Is it the Manny trade? What ever happend to that guy... he isn't here. He struck out and stabbed me in the damn heart. Down to Youk and what the hell happend to his power? He K's too and it's pure panic time. I am dying and DC just coughed up a Slimer from Ghostbusters look alike. I would normally find that funny... but not now. Sox 2, Angels 2
9th Inning: Masterson still in and pitching to Kendry Morales. I don't understand either choice. Tito is SCARED of using Papelbon due to the pitch count from yesterday I guess. I hate it. Morales hits a freaking double... oh my GOD. This guy is bearly a .200 hitter! Kendrick bunts him to 3rd with out a problem and that seems to wake up Francona. Nice to see you Tito! Did you remember there was a GAME going on? He pulls Masterson 4 batters too late. In comes Manny Delcarman to try and salvage this mess against Aybar. Let's just say I am not too optimistic... in fact, I hate everything about this. WOAH!!! Suicide squeeze!!! But the bunt misses!!! Tek gets the runner at third!!! Exclamation points!!!! Aybar grounds out to first... what a break! Win NOW!!!
Scott Sheilds looks like Marino Rivera right now for some damn reason. Drew strikes out looking and I call him a name that rhymes with "Goat Plucker". BAY!!!! JASON BAY!!! Double into the corner and it bounces into the stands.... damnit. That would have been 3 EASY. OH NO!!!!! Kotsay gets freaking ROBBED!!!!! Teixeira with a nice grab. AMAZING GRAB. Ugh... here comes Ratboy... freaking Ratboy...
YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!! RATBOY!!!!! NO MORE!!!! NOW YOU ARE JED THE MAN!!!!! SOX WIN!!! SOX WIN!!!!! LIVE BLOG BABY!!!! Oh crap... they Just started inteviewing Lowrie and damn... he still might be Ratbboy... but its a name of honor. He is THE Ratboy! SOX IN!! ALCS BABY! I am so freaking drained but I feel triumphant. The live blog is life! RED SOX 3, Angels 2.
My mind does ache. And now, a breakdown of the game, in the form of a mental debate:
The negative: It's after 1 AM, I have to get up for work tomorrow, and I don't even have a victory to make the exhaustion worth the trade.
The positive: Yeah, losing is no fun, but we're still ahead two games to one with one more in Fenway and we made the Angels eat through their entire bullpen to get that win. If K-Rod or Scot Shields even looks at a baseball before some time next week, their arms will probably fall off.
The negative: But we had so many good chances! That first ill-begotten lead, later on when Ellsbury only failed to take second because he's too goddamn fast, later on after that when Ellsbury struck out looking because the ump had some sort of chip on his shoulder or vision impairment that kept him from seeing a ball a foot out of the zone and the winning run would have walked home in the next at-bat...
The positive: At least we were efficient about it. Four runs on thirteen baserunners is a lot better than the five runs on 21 baserunners the Angels had to offer. We just have to get to tomorrow's starter early and we're golden for another trip to the ALCS.
The negative: We were beaten by Howie Kendrick and Erick Aybar, the very definitions of FAIL in these past three games. I'd feel better about losing to Groucho and Harpo than those two.
The positive: Francona might have been better going to Byrd than sticking with Javier Lopez for a full inning, but the bullpen did a great job: they kept the Angels off the board for seven innings without forcing the Sox to pull in one of the starters they might need for tomorrow.
The negative: Beckett looked like reheated ass on the mound tonight. This was not the post-season Josh Beckett to which I am accustomed.
The positive: No, but tonight's frustrations were a team effort. We'll shake 'em off and get 'em tomorrow.
Continuing Robin's angels and metal themes from Wednesday's game...
ALDS Game 2: Boston Red Sox 7, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 5
I think we should make it a rule that J.D. Drew should hit one really dramatic home run per playoffs, because it seems to do really good things for the team. Tonight's contribution might not have been as surprising as the $70 million home run (you know: given that home run and all he did for the team in June and the home run tonight, maybe it's time to retire that nickname), because I had high expectations for Drew as soon as he came to the plate, but that long bomb off of K-Rod (note to baseball writers: if you vote for K-Rod for MVP because of that save record, you are a fool. And tonight is a small demonstration of why.) was definitely Papi-like in its clutchness.
Speaking of long bombs, was there something in the air tonight that kept balls in the yard? If I remember correctly, there were four near-misses (three of them by Red Sox) to go with the two home runs and all four of them looked like sure things when they left the bat. Maybe it was the camera angle playing tricks with the mind. Or maybe there are air demons in Anaheim we don't know about. If there are, they probably come from Disneyland.
A few other thoughts:
Once again, I take back all of the bad things I said about Jon Lester in my preview on Wednesday. It was just the numbers talking, I swear. I do not take back what I said about Matsuzaka, who made tonight's outing the closest three (and then two) run game I've ever seen.
Jason Bay is amazing. Pure, bottled awesomeness who gets the hits we need. My friend Don and I were talking about him before Game 1, wondering whether or not the pressure of his first time would get to him. Clearly, we needn't have worried: he's 5 for 9 with two home runs, a double, and five RBI.
Dustin Pedroia...well, I refuse to speak ill of Dustin Pedroia. Snapping an 0 for 8 is nothing for the Horse.
Terry Francona made up for his tactical error in the eighth (sending Masterson back out to start the inning, leading to a need for a comeback and a six out save) by pinch-running for Ortiz in the ninth. It's a good thing, too because for a second he looked like he'd been out-managed by Mike Scioscia.
Josh Beckett. Fenway Park. Sunday night. Going for the sweep. If we don't send the Halos home with a broom after taking two from them in LA, we won't be able to hold our heads up when we walk down the street. Time to extend that baseball-best streak of 11 straight post-season wins against a team to twelve and get that ALCS ticket stamped. GO SOX!!!
Chip Caray just called J.D. Drew's power "Mantle-like." I love J.D. Drew (especially right now), but I have no idea what this statement means. Especially since Mickey Mantle's career isolated power total is about 40 points higher than J.D. Drew's. And that's a big difference.
Fun fact: when Mickey Mantle was 36 (his final year, in 1968), he had a .237 batting average, but still managed to get on base about 39 percent of the time, which means a ridiculous number of walks. '68 was Mantle's worst season after his rookie year and he still managed to be 42 percent better than the average player.
In the future, when baseball analysts want to gush over a player of small stature who may or may not be worth the spilled ink, they will not discuss his grit or pluck. Instead, they'll call him a caballito and develop a case of the self-satisfied grins, while we all laugh at the possibility that Ortiz actually was screwing with Buck Martinez, punking a whole generation of writers and broadcasters in the process.
Bill Simmons might very well be crazy (although you no doubt knew that): ESPN just published his 9,000 word summation of Manny and the Aftermath in what has to be one of the most exhaustive eulogies ever written by a fan. The first part is a bit cathartic, planting the blame on the ownership and the media for their roles in the debacle, but check out the second half (starting with the "A lesson in revisionist history" section) for Simmons' point: Manny may or may not have manipulated the situation and - no matter how this post-season turns out - he definitely won the war even as he lost the battle, but the real blameworthy individual is Scott Boras, the man who Simmons sees as the evil genius behind the forced trade that broke his heart.
Whether or not Boras nudged Manny into his final confrontation with Boston's management is a matter for conspiracy theorists (although Simmons' premise that Boras could only benefit from signing Manny if he got the slugger a new contract by any means necessary has merit), but Bill has one indisputable conclusion: Manny's departure for LA demonstrates once again that no matter how much we love a player, his first priority will always be to his wallet, not to his fans. Whether or not we can blame anyone for making that choice (especially since we'd all end up doing the exact same thing) is another matter.
ALDS Game 1: Boston Red Sox 4, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 1
Ahhh feel that? That’s October baseball. Playoff baseball. The leaves are turning and the dirtdogs are barking. It’s my favorite time of the year.
Before I get into the meat of the game log and not to rub it in, but that’s 10 postseason wins in a row against the Angels of wherever they claim to be from. The Red Sox just have their number. I know they have the best record in the AL, but I LOVE to seeing them in the first round.
Tonight was almost all about Jon Lester. I know everyone has gushed like pink hat wearing tweens about the guy… but he deserves it. He is a freak of nature. He can’t be beaten by base runners, pitch counts or cancer. I am pretty sure he is the government’s answer for Chuck Norris if Chuck ever goes “bad”. I mean it! Norris goes rogue and the president presses a big red button and deploys Jon Lester.
He pitched 7 innings of guts and glory with no earned runs and a belly full of bees. It would have been a SCORELESS 7 if not for Jed Lowrie and his awful Tony Graffanino imitation. That dumb error led to the only Angel run and almost got me calling Jed “Rat Boy” for the rest of the playoffs. He looks like his last job was teaching 4 turtles ninja skills. The only blunder that topped that was the bad running by Vlad in the 8th. Only a dummy tries to take 3rd on Youks arm.
On the offensive side of things, the injuries really took their toll on the Sox lineup. J.D. Drew and Mike Lowell were both too injured to play in this game. That didn’t stop them from STARTING… but they were sure as hell hurt. Lowell can barely run. Papi is also a shell of himself and if it wasn’t for the insurance RBI in the 9th he would have been another 0-fer.
The GOOD news was coming from Bay and Jacoby. The Sox got on the board thanks to a MAMMOTH 2 run blast from our Canadian friend. He almost looked excited about it too. As for Jacoby, this kid is another type of player in the postseason. He was on base all night. Stealing bases, hitting doubles and taking 3 bases on missed catches… there was nothing he didn’t do tonight… and that includes making amazing catches in center (he FLEW out there). He is like Apache Chief and when the playoffs roll around, you know he is screaming INYUK-CHUK!
With the 3 run lead, the ball went to Papelbon and the Paps delivered. He struck out the side to end any drama. He used his fastball (overpowering) and even found his splitter to get a big K. Soooooooo tasty! This was just a fantastic win that would be even sweeter if it wasn’t after 2 in the morning. So let’s wrap this up and let me get some shut eye so I can dream of the Angels and the rally monkey they can’t get off their back.
Last year, I weighed the odds, considered the statistics, and made what turned out to be a conservative prediction: Red Sox over the Angels in four games. This year, it is Boston's lot to play the Angels in the first round once again, with an eye towards continuing a streak of nine straight playoff victories and advancing to the next round (although, as Hart Brachen so rightly put it, all of these games are pure gravy to those fans smart enough to enjoy the good times while they last), and my lot (enjoyable, to be sure) to make another prediction.
Because he is a clever person, Soxlosophy's Jonah Goldwater rounded up the major statistics involved in this upcoming series in a post yesterday, but here's some additional factors to consider:
The Power of Teh SuXX0r: In 13 post-season games (going back to that infamous ALCS in 1986), the Sox have a collective ERA of 2.82 and collective splits of .281/.366/.451, while the Angels have a collective ERA of 5.59 and collective splits of .232/.299/.341. In other words, the Angels have been pretty terrible in the post-season (particularly last year, when the broken and beaten remains of the offense cowered under a rock before the might of everyone not named Matsuzaka or Gagne), generally falling far short of their regular season production. This trend is great news for the Sox, who beat the Angels once in nine regular season games in 2008...and that one win was back in April, in Boston.
The Dice-K Factor: Speaking of Matsuzaka, we'd better hope that Friday's starter doesn't repeat past results when he faces the Angels in Game 2: in 9.2 innings (including the start in Game 2 of the ALDS last year), he's given up nine runs and hasn't gone any deeper than five innings.
Seeking the Better Lester: I have a two-part excuse for why Jon Lester has been the opposite of filthy awesome against the Angels in his career: first, 14.2 of his 19.2 total innings were from before 2008, when he was the inconsistent Houdini who danced on the edge of disaster start after start. Second, his only start against LAA came in late April, when he was still in this blog's doghouse for having a (in retrospect) Matsuzaka-level lack of efficiency. Since then, of course, he's become the savior of this rotation and his more recent performance gives me hope that tonight will not be a blowout.
Injuries: Drew, Lowell, and Beckett all sound like they're healthier now than they were at the end of September. Having Drew and Lowell back could raise the lineup out of their September doldrums (yes, that's right: the team's splits dropped 30 points in all three categories in one month) and give Boston a fighting chance to beat some potentially devastating pitching, while Beckett remains the standard bearer for playoff excellence who could be in a position to keep the post-season alive come early next week.
Lackey and Santana: The outcome of the first two games probably depends more on which versions of Lackey and Santana show up to the first two games. Lackey's already broken from his poor past against the Sox with two strong wins in 2008, but if he reverts to form, Boston has a chance to take a crucial first game. Santana is having an excellent year, but he's never been particularly effective against Boston. Games 1 and 2 could very well be high scoring affairs that eat through bullpens and make Game 3 that much more important.
Prediction: There are too many what-if factors for me to feel comfortable calling this one for Boston. We'll see what happens tonight, but right now I'm calling it for the Angels in four.
So I return to blogging (as the season ends) with the wondrous report that the Yankees limp back home, losers of the last game of the season thanks to the bases loaded extra inning single by rising star (nah) Jonathan Van Every. The walkoff was an exciting end for an arduous regular season… but I fear that is the ONLY good news this evening.
Latest reports from the Boston Herald (so grain of salt warnings are in place) state that Josh “I own the Postseason” Beckett will be unavailable in the ALDS due to an oblique strain. Like beating the Angels wasn’t already going to be hard enough, now the Sox don’t even have the big gun himself to roll out Wednesday night.
So the 2008 Postseason will start without Lowell (potentially for the whole thing), J.D Drew (maybe for pinch hitting), Lugo (thankfully for the whole thing) and now possibly Beckett. This situation sucks so hard I swear it was accidentally created by CERN’s Large Hadron Collider.
But HEY…the bright side is the right side. The playoffs are finally here (unless you are in the AL Central) and we might even see the musical posts make a comeback. Everyone likes music… unless it’s the Sound of Silence coming from the Red Sox World Series chances…
Crap in a hat…
UPDATE: Francona spoke about Beckett tonight and it looks like he will pitch game 3 against the Angels if he is well enough... hold on to your butts.
So the last meaningful out of the Red Sox 2008 season is a pop-up in the fog, two men on board, down by 11 runs. It was a very odd way into regular-season irrelevancy: an atmosphere so soupy, outfielders are missing routing flies; so water-drenched, the very elements are conspiring to keep the ridiculous offensive totals out of the books.
I was going to say I wasn't too bothered by tonight's loss backdooring the Rays into an AL East victory they're probably too tired to celebrate, because I see the Twins lurking at the top of the AL Central, ready to snatch final victory from the failing Pale Sox, and my memory immediately jumps to the Lovecraftian horror that is the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome. I hate it when the Sox have to travel to Minnesota for games (like Seattle, they always seem to lose there, and lose badly), and if losing the AL East means not having to spend some virtual time in the Twin Cities baseball stadium of choice, it's a trade I'm happy to make. Let the Rays have the title and face the Twinkies.
However, I see I'm wrong on two counts: not only have the Sox done well in Minnesota this year on both sides of the ball, but so have the Rays. Just as importantly, both teams have played well against the alternate victors in Chicago, so unless the Rays go ice cold over the next week or so, don't expect either potential winner of the AL Central crown to make their way past the first round of the playoffs. If we're lucky, we'll face the Rays in the ALCS (actually, if we're really lucky, we'll face the White Sox or the Twins in the ALCS). If not, well...well, we'll cross that bridge when we come to it. For now, enjoy two days of meaningless baseball and contemplate how you think those first two games in LA will go. Finally: Congratulations to the Tampa Bay Rays on a stupendous achievement, made even more significant by its accomplishment in baseball's toughest division. You guys are the new terror of the East.
Jon Lester brings the money, money, money ball last night and has us thinking two no-nos in a year through six, while a cast of thousands (in the form of one of the lighter-hitting-on-paper Red Sox lineups we've seen this year) beats the odds and backs him up with more than enough runs for the win. Meanwhile, the Rays can't seal the deal, and fall to within two (well, technically three) of losing the lead again. We've gotta win 'em all and they've gotta lose 'em all. Oh, and we'll be facing the Yankees, who - despite their unaccustomed position in the standings - will no doubt be spoiling for a victory or two to keep Boston permanently out of the top spot. Wild Card is nice, but no one would mind a home series against Chicago, either. Time to go for all of the marbles!
Here we are with some rational and calm commentary from DC. I'll be back with my own brand of blab toward the end of the season. I'd give an excuse about why I've been so quiet... but you don't want to hear that I found people I can actually TALK to about the Red Sox... anyway DC's words follow.
Oh wait… Yeah we do! Let me take this opportunity to congratulate the olde town team on beating this year’s Cy Young Award winner and in doing so clinching a playoff spot. Unlike some other professional leagues where it seems like half the teams make the playoffs (I’m looking at you NBA), making the playoffs in baseball still means something. This season has been more demanding than any in recent memory and the Sox managed to fight through all the injuries, crazy clubhouse antics and trade deadline drama to take another step towards baseball’s holy land. Unfortunately with overtaking the Rays for the division looking as likely as me waking up tomorrow looking like Tom Brady, the next step will be much more difficult.
The Sox have a lot more going against them facing the Angels in the first round of the playoffs than they would have if they’d won the division and earned the right to play the White Sox, who enter the playoffs looking like the weakest post season team. I know what you’re thinking: “But we own the Angels in the playoffs.” While historically that may be true, consider these five facts and then tell me you’re not concerned:
We’re 1-8 against the Angels this season and our one win came in April and was off of Darren Oliver who coincidently had his worst month of the season in April. Of our 8 losses, 6 were won by their starters (including 2 W’s for Lackey and 2 for Saunders). That means their starters were able to go deep into the games rather than being worn down and having to rely on the bullpen like the Red Sox hitters prefer.
The Red Sox don’t scare John Lackey anymore. In past seasons, Lackey’s struggles against the Sox, particularly in the Fens, were well documented. However, he took care of those demons this year to the tune of a complete game victory that was a home run away from being a no hitter. On the year the Sox are only hitting .132 against Lackey and he’s 2-0 against them.
On the flip side of that coin, Josh Beckett has been the anti-Lackey. Against the Angels this year he’s 0-2 with an ERA over 7 with a batting average against of .345. Compare that to 1-0 with a 1.13 ERA against the White Sox. Furthermore, this season Beckett has looked like an ace at times but other times he’s looked extremely mortal. I was at this week’s game against the Indians. He seemed to have no command of his fastball and at times was very hittable. 105 pitches through 6 innings isn’t going to cut it from our playoff ace.
Beckett isn’t the only pitcher who’d rather see the Chi-Sox digging in over the next couple of weeks. Dice-K’s ERA against the Angels this year is on the wrong side of 10 and they hit .350 off of him. Compare that to a 0.56 ERA and .122 BAA versus the White Sox. Lester isn’t must better with a 7.20 ERA against the Angels (5.14 versus Chicago) and a .429 batting average allowed (.261 for Chicago).
These are not your father’s pitch first, score later Angels. This team went out and got 2 big time bats (Hunter & Teixeira) without losing anything on defense (9 Gold Gloves combined). On the other hand, the Red Sox aren’t scoring like they used to. Jed Lowrie seems convinced September translates to “swing and miss” in some ancient language. Mike Lowell can still hit, but unfortunately running is out of the question. JD Drew has a serious injury and likely won’t be 100% when he gets back on the field and his replacement, Kotsay, has been looking old.
What this all boils down to is cause for concern. I’m not saying that the Red Sox are going to lose. I’m simply saying that a successful title defense would have been significantly easier if we had won the division. In that case, we would have had home field advantage where the Sox are 53-23 (versus 39-42 on the road) and playing against a lesser opponent in the Chicago White Sox. But instead, we’re the wild card winners. We earned the right to go to California to face the best team in the league. An Angels team that stacked with pitchers and hungry to regain their playoff swagger. So, with regard to clinching the wild card I say to the Red Sox: “Congratulations… I think?”
Actually, that's too hasty: our offensive nightmare is mitigated, because J.D. Drew's back in the lineup tonight after five weeks on the sidelines full of enough legal drugs to stave off whatever messed up thing the discs in his back are doing. Good to have ya back (so to speak).
Four trips in five years and it's still just as sweet as it ever was to see the Sox make the post-season AL eight. It's officially time to start bringing the rock and take home another championship crown. Go Sox!!!
This post started out as a comment on Soxlosophy in response to this post, but after hitting the third paragraph I figured we'd all be better served with a blog post instead:
The argument about keeping the Stadium alive for the historical value to baseball is slippery slope anyway. Next we'd be saying that the Phillies shouldn't have replaced Veteran's Stadium just because they were there for thirty years.
And before you object and say that Veteran's Stadium wasn't the historical park, I think the analogy is apt (and goes to my next point): all week I've been reading reminiscences from people who remember Yankee Stadium before the renovations, who've never really seen the 1970s version (the Yankee equivalent of Veteran's Stadium) as being the real thing. Clearly they wouldn't be particularly interested in saving the newer park as a relic; it doesn't have that kind of value to them. Younger fans who've written up memories always seem to focus on the games they saw (and the fights, oddly enough, although maybe that's just the Deadspin bias), not the Stadium itself. The collective consciousness seems to view the place as pleasant scenery with a few standout points (Monument Park, the angle of the upper deck, etc.); the real important points were the players and the crowds.
Fenway is different, for a few reasons:
First, like Wrigley, it's a survivor of a much older era, an era that today's ballpark designers are trying to recreate. Its resultant air of historical authenticity grant it a cachet not seen amongst the megaparks of the 1970s, even if the survival of that authenticity is just as likely to stem from the historical accident of penny-pinching ownership choosing not to follow the course of 70s ballpark architecture as it is from any concerted effort to keep the old place alive.
Second, it's Boston, a place so thick with history you can't walk five blocks without running into some sort of monument to the past...and that list includes Fenway Park. That type of environment makes history pervasive, even if the impact isn't on a concious level. Heck, even within the park there's a slew of historical features (The Green Monster, Pesky's Pole, the Triangle, the Red Seat) that form a defining part of the Fenway experience. Don't get me wrong: New York has historical places, too, but when you live in a city that defines itself as a place where anyone can reinvent themselves, a place that remakes its skyline so often the city had to found a commission to keep valued landmarks from disappearing under the steamroller of progress, history gets a lower priority.
Third, and probably most importantly, the Red Sox equivalents of those fans who knew and loved the original Yankee Stadium were the fans who watched the Impossible Dream season unfold at Fenway, who helped break attendence records, make Fenway the most popular ballpark in baseball in 1967, and start the concept of Red Sox Nation. Unlike Yankee Stadium, the monument to their memories still exists; any attempt to take it away would meet (and, via Save Fenway, has met) with fierce opposition.
Hart Brachen says Zen...I say statistics. Either way, everyone wins (except the Jays).
Since Friday's predictions went so swimmingly, let's see if I can predict the course of the series against the Indians, too:
In 2008 (which amounts to two games, but Baseball Reference sums this up as 20 games because there were 20 batters involved. In retrospect, that's a pretty odd way to do the calculation.), the Sox offense has splits of .347/.415/.556/ against the Indians. Those two games were in Cleveland, so their relevance is a little questionable, but hey: at one point in the year (mid-April, to be precise), we could hit the Tribe's pitching. We'll just ignore the fact that one of the pitchers was Paul Byrd, mkay?
At Fenway, the Red Sox offense boasts splits of .293/.374/.470, which are fine and dandy numbers, except that they include the entirety of the year when, you know, we had a full lineup and not middle-lineup guys with balky tendons and spasming muscles. In September, the tape and glue job we've got running to power us into the playoffs is hitting a much more pedestrian .263/.348/.447.
Our leadoff hitter just woke up and realized it was September. Actually, that's not fair: as befitting a fancy-pants college boy, he did an intellectual analysis of his swing and discovered (and fixed) the holes causing his extended slump. The results are the same no matter what, though: he's got a 12 game hitting streak where he has six multi-hit games and splits of .345/.368/.545. Heating up for a repetition of the 2007 post-season extravaganza? I'm all for it.
Of the four pitchers going this week, only the former Indian has anything approaching respectable career numbers against Cleveland: Paul Byrd has a 1.60 ERA and a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio in 45 innings against the Tribe, dating back to the early part of this decade. Lester and Wakefield have middling numbers, while Josh Beckett has surrendered 18 earned runs in 24.2 innings. Of course, he's also got almost 4 strikeouts for every walk and it's September, a mystical time when, like Sir Gawaine and his tripled strength at the zenith of the sun, Beckett waxes most powerful. I'd say a split with a good possibility of a series victory seems is the most likely result.
Watching Fausto Carmona tool on Gary Sheffield like Nolan Ryan on Robin Ventura. Sheffield can jaw about it all he wants after the fact, but he got beaten like a red-headed stepchild on a rented mule - and everyone knows it.
Everyone includes the Indians announcers, who make no secret of their home bias throughout the fight, and discuss in length about how much of a toolbag Sheffield's being through the whole thing.
Thank you, statistics, for acting as expected and proving yesterday's point. You think now you might be willing to take a breather and let Jon Lester not live up to his record in Toronto?
Look at me, appealing to the irrational, just because I'd like to see that complex clinching formula (Sox win, Yankees lose, Twins or White Sox lose) come into effect and 0ur playoff berth to be guaranteed today.
Speaking of irrational, looks like the Bartolo Colon experiment is dead and done after Colon decided he'd rather not come back from the Dominican to pitch in the bullpen or backup another starter. Abandoning his team during the playoffs; pitching 39 innings during a supposed comeback year; what's the over/under Colon is done with professional baseball for good?
A few statistics heading into thes pivotal/not so pivotal (all depending on your answer to the question: how badly do you, as a Sox fan, want the Sox to win the AL East?) games against Toronto:
As a club, the Boston offense has team splits of .221/.291/.399 in the Rogers Centre. Those aren't their worst overall numbers, but they're among the worst for the number of games played.
Over the same time period, the pitching staff has compiled a 7.10 ERA in the Rogers Centre, almost a full run worse than their next toughest assignment, Rangers Ballpark. Some of it's been pretty wretched luck (BABIP of .316), but I knew there was a reason why I start thinking about the detention center on the first death star every time the Sox play a series in Toronto. I'd so rather see these games happening in the Band Box of Eutaw Street.
Paul Byrd has a 3.93 ERA and a 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio in 34.1 innings in the Rogers Centre. His 0.96 WHIP ain't too shabby, neither. Score the man some runs and we just might win tonight's game.
Dice-K has a 3.79 ERA, a 3.71:1 strikeout to walk ratio, and a 1.21 WHIP over 19 innings on the Jays' home turf. As he somehow keeps managing to win games this year while expending more pitches than the Fed's sent out dollars in corporate bailouts (a topical joke - how clever), I probably shouldn't be worried about Sunday's outcome.
Jon Lester's stats in Toronto are stab-me-in-the-eye terrible and I refuse to discuss them.
We better hope that when we meet the Rays in the playoffs we score a lot more runs than they do, or we are Effed to the Ayyyy.
Just for kicks, I took at a look at the results of the 17 games the Sox and Rays have played thus far, to confirm whether the results of the past few games (squeakers won by the Rays in the bottom of the ninth or in extra innings) were really as common to Boston/Tampa contests in 2008 as they suddenly felt.
Unfortunately, the results match my initial intuitions.
Going into tonight's contest, the Sox are 8 and 9 versus the Rays. In all nine losses, Boston has never lost by more than three runs; they've lost once by three, twice by two, and a really demoralizing six times by one run. Just as bad are the run differences on the win side: never less than three runs, with an average of five. Of course, these are your 2008 Sox, the team whose batting splits drop 30 points (.293/.374/.470 at home, .271/.347/.430 away) when they hit the road; some drop off will occur and we're just reaping the whirlwind when we play the Rays in Tampa. I guess I should grateful: those splits are the best in the AL for both home and away and they're more consistent than the leading teams in the NL. I just hate losing games in the last few minutes of the night.
More Papelbon: he's really tired of everyone asking him about his recent performance, because he's got that stuff all under control. Seriously, just read the article.
Watching and reading interviews with Papelbon this year, I'm convinced that the guys from The Dugout weren't too far off: he really is the Manny Ramirez of pitching. When he's not talking about pitching, he comes off as either really wacky or a little stupid, but when he's talking his profession, the tumblers seem to fall into place and the knowledge just unlocks. And it's a little scary when it does:
"It's just making adjustments," Papelbon said. "For the past month, I've thrown 20 scoreless innings basically just going out there and throwing my heater and locating it. Well now, the same teams I did that against, they're making their adjustments on me. I've got to get back and do the same. So I've got to be able to throw my secondary pitches and locate my split and locate my slider.
As far as I can tell, Papelbon's treated the past month like some sort of extended side session, going out and fine tuning his best pitch in a live fire environment. As far as I can tell, there's only one reason for him to do so: he's getting ready for the post season. He's so confident that his team will get him to the playoffs that he's moved beyond the day to day of the regular season and he's preparing for the rigors of October baseball. This level of confidence is awesome beyond words.
Oh, sweet, sweet beat down. Oh, streak breaking beat down that takes us into first place, tied for first after months and months of playing second fiddle. It's damn good to be back, even if I felt a little bad for the Rays by the middle of the fifth, down 12 to 1 with things looking so bleak (or really, so good) that Francona was subbing out players like he had to get through some sort of quota. Kevin Cash even got to miss a pop up in third base foul territory! I tell ya: it's a good night when you get to take down a rival in their house and rest your players a bit for the playoffs.
Let's see if we can do it again tomorrow. I bet Beckett's so hungry for glory he demands to face two batters at a time.
Can't say I expected the standings to turn out the way they did this weekend: I figured that, if nothing else, the Jays were going to play spoiler to the max and make the whole Wild Card thing an uncomfortably close thing, if nothing else. But Toronto turned out to be a storm in a teacup with only one blowout left in their bats, Lester showed up Halladay, we're back to a game behind the Rays going into Tampa, with a six game lead on the Twins for the WC. Not too shabby at all...
Speaking of which: should we be gunning for first this week, or just be satisfied with keeping the Wild Card status quo intact?
Should we be worried about Papelbon? Clearly he isn't concerned that he's started to give up runs like they're going out of style, pointing out that he's pitched in four of the last six games, but three plus years into his career, it might be time to wonder whether or not those durability issues might kill his closer career after a few years in the spotlight. Someone (I believe my sports-obsessed brother-in-law) pointed out to me earlier this year that someone with four or five pitches should be in the starting rotation, not in the bullpen, no matter what his success. I knocked the idea at the time, citing his enormous influence on Boston's possession of the 2007 world champions banner, but there might be some merit to making Papelbon a member of the rotation. Or there would be, were the list of upcoming free agent closers so disappointing: of the 10 options, only two are under 30; one of them is K-Rod and the other is Brandon Lyon, who just lost his closing job in Arizona. Kerry Wood would be interesting if he weren't made of balsa wood, Brian Fuentes has to be nearing the end of his peak, and Eric Gagne...well, we won't go there.
This final game against the Rays made me eat a bag of pain and crap a fountain of sorrow. It was poorly managed (bad pinch hitting and running choices Tito) and lacked any type of clutch hitting that could be imagined... I want to run and hide from that damn Rays Bullpen... why did they look so good?
Ugh. I am too tired to go into detail, but Mike Timlin... you are done baby... done, done, done.
"Four people are sitting around a table, talking about baseball, five minutes of it, very dull. Suddenly a bomb goes off. Blows people to smithereens. What does the audience have? Ten seconds of shock." -Alfred Hitchcock
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