Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Game 15: Hit 'em Up

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 5, Cleveland Indians 3

Despite the absence of Mike Lowell and the relative absence of David Ortiz (and his two game hitting streak) I've started to develop a genuine affection for how this year's offense works when it clicks. Partially it's the overwhelming effectiveness, where last night, for the second time this season ,the offense picked up the pitching and returned runs lost to the opposing team with vicious interest, scoring two for one, four for two, etc. You can't help but like the hitting on a team that stays that effective under pressure. But my affection also stems from how the Sox are stringing together hits - or how they seem to be stringing together hits - and how that differs from past teams. Let me explain.

Note: the following is based only partially on statistics and partially on impressions, and as is such is quite possibly wildly inaccurate. Bear with me. In the past (say 2003 to 2005), when Boston wanted to score runs, they'd do the baseball equivalent of filling up the power meter (yes, a video game metaphor) and then try and clobber the opposing pitcher. For the most part it worked, and the team enjoyed winning records, even in 2005 when the pitching wouldn't have scared (or stopped) a little leaguer. More recent teams have flirted with speed, courtesy of first Coco Crisp and then Julio Lugo, but - so far - the 2008 edition mixes speed, hitting, and plate patience in a way that opens far more offensive options. The mix of hitting and plate patience (and here's where statistics come in) is particularly interesting: most of Boston's hits come in more aggressive counts (the twenty hits on the first pitch exceeds hits on any other count, and hitters are more likely to swing and connect with two strike counts), but as the number of balls increase, so do the likelihood of walks.

The end result: the team has an sOPS+ (a measurement of the team's offensive ability relative to other teams) of 110 (100 is average). We're on a hot streak, and that helps, but I think what we've seen in the past few games is how the 2008 Boston offense is supposed to work, and not a case of luck. The pitching may still be a question mark, but the offense looks championship-worthy.

6 comments:

Robin said...

Nice O. (sorta... lots of squanders and bad base running)but Tek was clutch and it was awesome to see Lowery get his first hit+ RBIs.

Good D! Jacoby went into the stands in Cleveland? He's lucky he didn't get a knife wound along with the last out.

Great RP! Oki is a legit 2nd closer on this team. Made me happy to know we can give Paps a rest now and then.

Eric said...

My favorite part about the Ellsbury catch was him fighting off the fan who tried to catch it - the dude wriggled like a fish to get the right angle on the ball, and it was pretty awesome.

Bosox Fan in Wichita said...

OK, I give up ... the boxers? Fullmer, Marciano, Pep ...??

own said...

Hello!

I visit you for first time and I like the way you write. I am also a Red Sox fan from far away, I was born and live in Barcelona, Spain.

I think the offense is working perfect and if we think about the absences of David Ortiz (he will be back when we really need him) and Mike Lowell and the obstinacy of Francona with Coco Crisp in and Ellsbury out (I really don't understand how Crisp is still with us) the offense is working better than perfect. If Francona doesn't get Ellsbury crazy with all the changes of positions we can be happy...

The main problem is in the starter rotation, without Beckett at 100% and without Schilling we are not throwing the best way. Lester is OK and probably Buchholz will but not at this time. Why not a oportunity for Colon? He is throwing well in Pawtuckett, doesn't he?

We are winning the games with a big runs scores for both teams, isn't it?

I am following the day to day via redsox.com and I try to see the games I can also via mlb.com but because when they play I am sleeping I try to figure how was the game with the score box...

Greetings from Barcelona

LET'S GO RED SOX!

Eric said...

Fan in Wichita: The boxers came up when I google image searched for hitting. I was going more for the expression on the victim's face than anything else. I have no idea who the two of them are.

Own: Welcome! Crisp is still on the Sox because he's hitting, and he seems happy enough with the platooning to give Ellsbury a chance to work out his inside pitch issues and spell Manny in the late innings. Depending on how things shake out, Crisp will probably go at the trading deadline for something juicy.

Pitching: you're spot on about the starter situation. Colon's still rehabbing, but he'll likely replace Buchholz as soon as he's good to go.

Bosox Fan in Wichita said...

Thanks Eric. I found out it was Billy Conn ... I was off about a decade.